Member Info for Velo

Noticed one of the pair of medium trend line set-up's I run on BT has been narrowing quite noticeably.
Roughly, I've only seen it seriously bullish twice in BT over 5 years - the summer and autumn of 2018 and autumn 2019 up to the election, whereupon some time after the election it returned back to bearishness and has remained so since early January this year, continuously.

Medium term trends have remained resolutely bearish throughout. I've been bundling it in with the medium term trends but it's just a tad fast for that, and too slow for short term duties, so I'm renaming it 'intermediate' trend as it fits closer to medium than short term - and of late if this momentum continues - it looks like its limbering up for crossing to the upside, which if it does so, will signal the first of the medium term wobbles.

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend . = Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . .= (Kissing only; neither one thing or t'other)
Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

Had a hunch there might have been a new analysts consensus forecast on the weekend with the dramatic rise today
- and there was - dated 5th June which means they would have posted it after hours on Friday (usually near midnight).

Made the assumption, ahh... that'll have impacted today's SP no doubt, so just glanced at the updates - and was surprised - the opposite - the forecasts for Q1 and the coming years are all down on their initial May 22nd forecast for this Q1 and future years - so can rule out the market upgrading their forecasts - they haven't - the opposite in fact - but only marginally, not significantly so.

Hadn't intended on checking up with the analysts consensus for this year, but shame to throw away the spreadsheet away that I've built up, where I've collated each period forecast and slapped in each new update to see if an increasing trend can be detected compared to their previous forecasts to see if an overall increase is underway, but no, there isn't, just tiny movements.

Apart from their regular downgrading of expectations from one forecast to the next forecast, they are maintaining their overall view that this current year marks the deepest low point for net profit (and revenue) with next year net profit slightly up on this current year, and '22/'23 increasing slightly on that again.

Revenue they are maintaining the same for next year as they are for the current (which is already forecast to be significantly down on the actual year just completed) with the following year a small increase, and 2022/2023 to be lower than 2021/2022.

So revenue and net profit a wee bit out of synch according to the analysts forecasts.
Slightly complicated but overall nothing dramatic and still net profit not regaining that £2bn threshold - that's gone for the foreseeable, as they're forecasting £1.465bn for this year, £1.6717bn for next year and £1.622bn for the year after '22/'23

Summary:
Whilst they are showing net profit increasing from an all time low expected for this year, they keep messing with each update so that their previous figures decrease overall but more or less keeping the upward trend in net profit. Revenue they have a bit lumpy and out of sequence to net profit.

Anyway, the SP is not rising because the market has been hit with new increased forecasts (the opposite in fact) it's just large investors deciding to buy into BT at the moment - that's all a trend is in FTSE100 stocks - big institutions moving by either buying in or selling.

https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12020-21/bt-group-consensus-05-jun-2020.pdf

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend . .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

Well, very pleasing performance today that ticks all the boxes (2 resistance pivot points demolished :) And ends the week on a bullish high note.

I'm so pleased I didn't act on my inner 'feelings/voice' and held discipline to pre-determined strategy and kept my holding intact, and thus the bullish short term trend held up its end of the bargain too, and performed marvellously today.

That Candlestick close tonight, is singing of promises and sunny uplands to come, but that's just candlesticks; make of that what you will - but I love it.

Best of all, the momentum was enough to swing the small move back from bearishness in the Ultra Short term trend yesterday, that it's back to being bullish tonight - but that trend on it's own can not be used for investment decisions - used only as an initial heads-up only, alert.

SP Short term - I'm happy - are you?
(Obviously not longer term SP - it's still to be recovered - 5 years and counting)

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend . .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . .= Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trends . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

45 on screen at one point! Yes it has caught a distinct chill. That appearance of a flat base has disintegrated now. All the enjoyable previous price patterns that developed since April are no more, so it's normal market conditions, whatever 'normal' means :)

And worse - the Ultra Short Term trend is now distinctly bearish - confirmed tonight.

However the Short term trend is still bullish with the ultra short trend not a decision-signal on its own, merely a heads-up. Tentatively bearish last night, it wacked wide open and crossed to the downside tonight. I'm now of the opinion that a bearish tone is set to continue as the new black until the price decides otherwise.

The all important 200 day MA, is down at 41 and still slowly rising in miniature steps. So if perchance the SP did visit that area and with longer term trends still bullish I'd expect a quick kiss and a bounce off away - and thus this new bearishness ticket would expire.

But of course I have no idea how low it will go or whether it just meanders meaninglessly from here.

And also a bit more work would be required to get the Short term trend to also turn bearish - which is a decision maker. Because of that, this could all be short lived anyway, but I'm suspicious. I'd love to get a 42.9 top-up and bring my average screaming down to 49.9p

A holding in the 40's I find acceptable; but I'm a bit uncomfortable at high 50's as no leeway when the SP plays in these areas. Uninterested at topping up at any point above 42.9 - unless a new raging bull market descended upon the world. So let it do it's worst because with the longer term trend history still visibly bullish, I'm doubtful this small retrace can get out of hand.

WL1516 @ " What time frame are you using Velo?"

- Just daily charts. I run charts up to 20 yerars on daily time frames but of course smudgy as hell so will click to weekly, rarely monthly. Have multiples of time spans in differing set-up', but daily price action is my default, (5 minute time frames for intraday price action) and only go smaller when I'm interested in something in particular.

The lower the time frame (ie., less than daily the more you will whipsaw and be all over the shop.Nothing fancy, I keep it simple with daily time frames for the majority of use.

Island Girl @ " What time frame do you use for RSIs,15mins,30mins, less or more "

I use multiple time frames and multiple RSI values for differing occasions. I leave it on standard setting of 14 for dailies. Of course when a stock enters oversold condition on the full day timeframes it's quite a serious moment as all feel the pain. But it's the best money making opportunity in the world. The best.

However, when I day trade or want to see where a stock is likely to go in the next few minutes or likely hour or so, I set the 5 minute charts (several on the go and I often have a variety of settings on show) usually 6, 8 or 10 setting for faster reaction as 14 will be too slow intraday.

And of course on 5 minute charts with a low RSI setting of say 8 - every single stock is in and out of oversold all day long. I love them when day trading the DOW on the 5 minute charts and usually set them at 8 but can go to either 10 or 6 if that index is 'playing up'.

On the big picture - on daily charts - NCYT is not oversold. This board is covered with those claiming it is - but it isn't. It's moving towards that direction but is not technically oversold as of tonight. The speed of the SP change from day to day in NCYT is insufficient to trigger it.

On the intraday charts (5 minutes my fav) every stock will flirt in and out of both oversold and overbought all day long, so irrelevant really and nobody cares for intraday. But oversold on a day chart is serious stuff. See that on screen and investors will be hurting. Intraday they wouldn't even notice their stock was temporarily oversold.

Thanks cabert, John_james - you're welcome.

Simple00 @ " Velo and his ..... have been busy today in LSE & Twitter "

I have not now or ever been a subscriber to Twitter.
Twitter is as John Bishop once said - "For those with f**k all to say"

But of course you'd already know that being a user :)

ggg21 @ " . . What about the massive gaps up to fill. The RSI now I’m way oversold territory but let’s not talk about any of that yeh "
--------------

There's only one other gap after this but as it is quite low down I'd rather see if this one that gapped up from circa 217 closes first - it may not and if it doesn't then there's no need to stress over that 'massive' gap just yet.

Disagree that the RSI is oversold. Unbelievable after today, but true - Technically NCYT is NOT yet oversold as of tonight. It's travelling closer and closer but it defo is NOT oversold in RSI terms.

When a stock enters oversold condition it is the best set-up in the world, bar none, for making money. Just don't buy until it starts lifting clear of it. Never buy whilst it's IN oversold condition - that's a signal for fate to drive the SP even lower - wait until it lifts out and get a second confirmation as time and time again they drop back before finally lifting out.

I dream of oversolds -the low hanging fruit of the market.

That intraday low and disputed close to the 46 area was unexpected and brought a distinct pall to proceedings. Distinct chill in the SP air.

" Velo: are you still in or have you sold up? "

----------------------
Still in, still holding, hardup.

It's been an interesting experiment as yet still inconclusive in that it is my contention it has been possible to make a constant profit in BT (over 5 years) despite 5 years of a non-stop bearish long term down trend .

What I've picked up watching BT's price action over the years, is that money can be made from BT's shares in 3 ways, by-

a) Oversolds
b) To a lesser extent Overboughts

and

c) Going long or short as the Short term trend indicates (only the short term trend nothing else).
- Just so long as you jump out of the way smartly when that short term trend begins termination and changes trend. No dithering.

( For longer term investing then the short term trends are useless and ONLY the long term trends should be used and nothing else )

-----------
And there's my first sign tonight (see below) The Ultra Short Term Trend has now gone AWOL and confirmed it' has now turned BEARISH.
I said only the 'short term trend' and as that is still bullish I'm still holding.
Pretty sure it to will do a runner and skedaddle like it's younger sibling - but therein lies guaranteed failure. Giving in to "feelings and guesses" so "pretty sure" isn't good enough.

What I'm really concerned about is that tonight I'm "pretty sure" the SP is going for that pattern completion I mentioned previously and is going to form a new low. And as the previous low was 100/101-intraday to 99, then it most likely will be lower than that, and sub-100 to form a new lower low!

Now that's a 'pretty sure' feeling, even if I think it's reasoned. But when you measure a lifetime of my pretty sure feelings v trend line reveals - I lose out by a huge margin. So I'm taking this to the bitter end, as the short trend could do a kiss and a bounce away - even though I'm pretty sure it'll do no such thing. There is no room for gut feelings in this. The strategy is you do what the trend lines tell you to do, nothing else - and thank them too!

So, I'm holding because that's what the bullish short term trend line is saying I should do - and they've got good form; I have none when it comes to relying on "feelings" and "pretty sure's"

- BUT I AM pretty sure the SP is about to turn south and head for sub 100. I've just got this feeling after looking at the recent patterns; I'm pretty sure about that.

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT was up to yesterday -

Price to 200 day ma trend . .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . .= Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trends . . . . . . . = BULLISH

.

BUT TONIGHT IS -

Price to 200 day ma trend . .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . .= Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trends . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = Bearish

Cabert @
" Can you please let us know what the chart are saying ?
Did the gap in 2's to 2,5 got closed ? "
-------------------

Hi Cabert, saw your heading post just as I was leaving the house and having a quick update on the phone before doing so, but had to go.

Is this the bit you are referring to :

" . . . I'm intrigued to see if it closes the next Gap which is stationed just below 220 up to 250-ish, and leaves me wondering is that where this downtrend is heading, if it doesn't disintegrate next week, and return to the uptrend?

Below that is the largest Gap up of them all - but I won't even mention it, as it just looks horrendously unfeasible. "

(I left that last sentence in, as the third of the three Gap-up's is by far the largest of them all, but is so far down, I dare not post it's values until the second gap-up closes. Don't think that huge third gap-up will be visited on this run. Something mighty would need to occur first, so could be waiting a long time - if it ever closes at all).

- No Cabert, the Gap did not close today and still remains an unclosed festering sore, but with tonight's close it's definitely on the cards from tomorrow onwards. (Sometimes they can take numerous visits to complete). And the down trend is still aggressively bearish

The price did knock on the door and commenced entry getting as far as mid 230's, but to actually reach the lower level today would have been faster and further than my expectations.

To be clear, I'm seeing circa 217-ish as the lower level and 252 as the upper level of the Gap, so the SP definitely made an incursion into that area. Now, will it go on to close that gap and visit 217 ?

After which I'd be looking for bullish signs that the raid was over and pick an entry point (or top-up point if already holding).

- But a bit of perspective, and for that I'm just going to lift and copy paste from that post to save re-typing:

" . . . it has to be borne in mind that although the short term trend is currently still in a bearish retrace - the medium and near 'long' term trends are all visibly and strongly bullish. And the longer term sentiment trends always rule - as all lesser trends are merely waves within cycles and zig-zags within a larger wave and that is - that the medium to longer term trend in NCYT is still bullish. . . "

------------------

In summary, long term trends dominate every stock. The long term trends for NCYT are still bullish and the long term trend calls the shots. Yes short term trends are all currently bearish, but that's like a wave within a sub wave. When you look at the price action over a long period it just looks, like a bit of zig zagging within a long uptrend., But when you live the price daily at the time, yes, it does feel terrible. As long as the long term trends don't break to the downside, then in time this retrace has to pass; just a matter of time before the bullish longer term trends reassert their authority on proceedings.

Thursday already? Crikey, where's the week gone already?

Pivot points are staying kind to the SP.

If it can close as a bare minimum on just 119 then all still on track. Short term trend still very, very, bullish - but the ultra short trends are narrowing alarmingly.

Another close at 117 and they could kiss in preperation of eloping to the downside. But for this exercise I can't let Candlesticks dictate terms to me. This is a pure trend lines play, and they're still saying the SP is bullish. Hmm it must be a case of the SP having a kip then eh? I prefer oversolds in BT as it's like free money time when they show up approx 3 or 4 times a year. But BT's trend lines are the master for this play. Whilst they remain bullish so must I.

So once again 119 seems quite a reasonable request/expectation to me.

Make it so :)

End of July? Thanks for that T/Tail.

Well the regular pattern of small term, peaks and trough 'humps' that got well under way from April, appears to all intents and purposes to have dissipated away, IMO.

Shame, because every time the market becomes 'readable' you know it's time for it to become a shape-shifter and confound!
But in this case it's changed shape to what I think is a developing 'flat base', over the last half dozen trading days.

And that's even better than what went before. True Flat Bases can run for a couple of weeks, months, sometimes years - but all terminate in the same manner - with an explosive breakout to the upside, in a bullish zeal to new highs.
So if it is that, then I'm personally expecting a change of character from the slothful bullish SP progress exhibited from April to something . . . ahem, a bit more exciting.

In these situations it would be helpful if a trading update was due, but I'm a bit adrift, what with the authorities giving permission for companies to hold back on issuing guidance to the market due to the Covid disruption to the economy this year - does anyone know when the next Trading Update is due to be published?

Had a look but came up empty handed. If there's no update before the finals are published in September, I'm doubtful this fledgling flat base sentiment could hold out that long. I have to hand, exceptional looking projected figures for the expected finals which are 100% pre-covid, and expect them to be stellar, and then some! :)

The SP background is stacked nicely too, long term trends are bullish, short-term trends are bullish too, as are ultra-short term trends. Intermediate medium trends are probably caught up in a mathematical conundrum as they are out of synch with all other trends.
So the SP, despite the past half dozen days, is still officially well-bullish. The longer this can maintain a flat base (if that's what it is) - the better, so as to wind it up like a coiled spring.

So you might think the SP appears to have gone quiet these past several days, but all is still bullish.

The finals (yet to be published) are projected to be so good the danger is, it could exaggerate and impact the comparative difference between last year and this current year's Covid-related trading year, as the year unfolds.

Have to say I'm somewhat disappointed by last night's SP final close. Looking at the recent price history it can be seen that from mid March there's been a series of mild humpy peaks that have developed, followed quickly by descending troughs and so on to the next one - this being about the 4th since that date. (The lows, bar the second trough, have mostly been lower too).

Thing is, all the peaks in those humps have been lower on each successive peak, gently descending each time, so the SP turning south from approx now would fit just about right with that "pattern".

If that is its true intention then tonight, I'll be looking for a close on 120 or as a bare minimum 119 to PROVE the SP is not for turning.

If it closes lower than 119 - I'll be eyeing up the sell button if any further weakness turns up and eventually close my recently opened position.

Thanks Stoodio - that's useful to know. I believe SLP has its shares listed in 2 other markets besides here on the LSE

- In Germany on the Deutsche Boerse
&
- In the US in the OTC unlisted market.

Until your post, I assumed they would function with some sort of version of the US ADR (American Depository Receipts) system of stocks set-up, whereby that country's banks bought the shares direct for citizens in it's country.

Not something I delve into though.

Ughh - hate buy-backs! Always have. Never does much for the SP valuation in my experience. What's the reason for the buy-backs? Free float is only 77% as is, so reducing the free float share pool could make PI's wince when buying or selling at certain times.

As I understand it, going on for nearly 70% of the shares issued, are owned by institutions & private Companies, with only 28% held by the general public =

Institutions = . . . .= 47.2%
Private Companies = 21.6%
BOD . . . . . . . . . . = 2.6%
And us at . . . . . . .= 28.6%

If the reason is to accumulate shares to incentivise the workforce or BOD personnel, then okay; but rather a lot of these buy-backs, so something else going on, like squeezing out PI's by virtue of the resultant unattractive spreads?

Well, pleasing to see bullish trends still in place and the better trend strengthening; not so the flibberty-gibbet, ultra short term trend of the SP, But all in all - good enough, and all is well.

And lovely to see a £profit lit up in blue against BT in my broker's account. There's a rare sight :)

On that note I'm well aware of the all powerful longer term bearish trends barrelling down, behind my back, so need to be a cross between a ballet dancer and a whippet with this current foray. However I have ex-SAS snipers in the elephant grass to radio-in, indicator alerts should they see the enemy preparing to move things up a gear.

Not unexpected for 120 to be a bit resistancy as a quick eyeball to the left shows late April and early March was likely to read across to 120 and play up - I expect high 120's to be similar, but not nearly as tough as this 120 area.

Ergo; I'm not expecting a quick exit up out of the north side out of the 120's decile in the SP just yet - and visible after that, should the SP do so, are a myriad of pushy-back resistance fighters further north, that are lying in ambush - but they're battles in the future and not a concern for this week.

It would be 'nice' if this week the SP broke past 120 and after consolidating had a foray to take out the higher 120's. Just 2 jobs for the SP this week. Not expectant - but it would be nice.

Seadoc - I do hope it's not taken as advice - just airing my opinions which are as variable and unreliable/reliable as anyone else's :)

Yes, I agree Q1 trading update will be eagerly devoured here. Cahflow is causing me a little bit of concern too, but if all I've read on here transpires - that could be put to bed inside of Q1 alone!

Read somewhere but can't find it, that you took out your short because you believed the SP was "overpriced". Well if that was the early part of April when I first became aware on NYCT then the SP was overbought and due a retrace to correct
- but that is entirely different to being overpriced. None of us can say with any accuracy if the SP is overpriced until the company produces earnings - which historically it hasn't to date, but I'm sure it will, well within Q1, and then a P/E ratio can be accurately calculated, and from that comparatives to both Industry medians - and sector averages. However, because of the SP performance to date I firmly expect NCYT to end up sporting a premium P/E ratio above that of its cvompetitors.