Q1 Net Profit31 Jul 2020 19:30
(Part 1 of 2) >
So, the battle is lost today, but the resistance to win the war fights on, on Monday.
I'm not convinced the sub 100 is here to stay and live amongst us, just yet. I count it as just once having intradayed below 100 (98 approx 15th May) with maybe a nearby intraday of 101 on 2 days each before that. Today counts as the first day to close below 100.
I've said this before - but it works time and time again - You can visit a major support a couple of times without lasting damage but visit it once too often and . . . . . . Well you can guess how it finishes.
In BT's case I've found that very short in the number of revisits. One tends to think in threes, but BT has bad history on turning feet up and playing dead all too quickly when under stress. However, will stick my neck out a mile and say this may be the last chance to evade sinking below 100 and staying there for the foreseeable. Every chance, bargain hunters could turn up on Monday - simply because this is only the second time the SP has been sub 100 and one of those was an intraday visit only.
Whatever, Monday will decide. I'm hoping the market digests the real impact of the Q1 results when comparing them to last year and removing the sentiment that the overly bearish market forecasts have coloured the landscape with. Lost a lot of work, just now, on the spreadsheet so will just go with a few Net Profit comparisons. Did you see NigeCo's post at 11:13am on the 4 times this Q1 net profit thought, I left in a post?
Whereby this years full Net Profit comes out HIGHER than last years full year Net Profit - if Q1 is simply repeated to the year end? Spot on Nigel!
(By the way the 4 quarters if repeated as Q1 produces £1792m Net profit - higher than last years (see NigeCo's post)
Here's the thing; guess what the current Net Profit Market Consensus forecast is for this year? - £1498m! I kid you not. (I have posted them previously a month ago).
What do you think the analysts will quietly do to that figure once they number crunch this Q1 result? You can be sure they'll remove being potentially triple figure millions out in accuracy in the next update (Q2) that's for sure - and raise the bar!
Have gathered the 4 quarters for last year of net profit before they are scattered to the four winds and lost forever, so you can compare how close BT is, based on this Q1, to producing possibly not half-bad, decent and acceptable figures - but still a little below last year but in no way deserving of a mass panic.
Q1 L/Year Net Profit £505m
Q1 2020 Net Profit £448m = (- 11.29% down)
- The market was expecting a very low £300m+ for Q1 - smashed it! Well done BT!
And the full year Net Profit forecast is for only £1498m, yet here we are with £448m of it already banked in Q1 alone!
Now that Q1 can be shown to produce £448m Net Profit under Covid lockdown conditions, just compare that to the other quarters coming up -
(Continues) > > >
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