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Bommer @ " . . . .What works best for BT, 10 20 50 ma or 9,18 45 ma ? All thoughts welcome."

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Give over Bommer! Wrong question :)
- What's your destination?

Day trading?

Swing trading?

Trading?

Longer term investing?

- There is no "silver bullet" answer to your question. Because that's what you're seeking, isn't?

One question for you (which I will be disappointed in you, if don't already know or can't answer accurately to yourself in private honesty) and it's this:

What is the "predominant trend" in BT?

Answer that (accurately without personal emotion or bias) and you will see picking various trends and differing time frames is irrelevant, until first you know what is the over riding predominant trend that rules over BT.

Only then, decide on your destination - will your destination be fighting against the tide/trend like a battered salmon swimming upstream, or will you be using your head and swimming with the tide to get to your destination?

Well, that surprised me - the Q2 forecasts are out - early! Wasn't expecting them until Saturday.

Checked last Sat morning - Sunday and Monday too, the 10th. Think I checked either Tuesday or Wednesday too -nothing - felt for sure, yep it's going to be bang on the 14th. Yet here they are, dated the 7th August! (Last Friday).

Strange. How could they update so fast yet take half a week to publish publicly?

And they are atrocious. If the market is truly getting a sniff of these Thursday morning it'll be interesting if the "doubling down" of the analysts bearish outlook has any impact on the SP today (Thursday) - as they are terrible for Q2 in isolation - and worse for the next 3 years than their last 3 year forecast.

Can't believe how severe they've been after such a net profit shown for Q1
- yet with a massive increase last year for the upcoming Q2 the analysts have virtually halved what they think this year for Q2, and it virtually consigns BT's Q2 to the knackers yard.

Start with the new forecast for Q2 then move on to the 3 year forecast; however it's a sad tale made worse by this new Q2 forecast.

Recap, Q1 just published produced £448m for N/Profit when the last forecast was for a measly £300m++ odd.
Last year's Q2 being larger than last year's Q1 at £563m thought they would have improved their aim and highered the quarter forecast to greater than Q1's actual of £448m - but no! They've doubled down, and are forecasting only £278m net profit for Q2!

Doesn't seem possible to come in that low, as that would make the H1 running total come in at only £726m Net Profit whilst last year BT produced just over a billion at £1.068bn in Net Profit for H1!

Q2 revenue is down again at £5.369bn (can't be bothered to get the H1 revenue just yet - will pick it up later but in short, it's less than their last forecast).

The last (old) 2020/21 full year forecast for Net Profit was for approx £1.498bn - but this latest update reduces that further to £1.412bn. With revenue down too at a forecast £21.455bn.

All the subsequent years revenue are down each succeeding year.

Here -

2020/21 Revenue, last forecast = £21.593bn - Latest forecast = £21.455bn
2021/22 Revenue, last forecast = £21.630bn - Latest forecast = £21.447bn
2022/23 Revenue, last forecast = £21.668bn - Latest forecast = £21.322bn

Small % reductions - but revenue goes down every single forecast, by greater amounts, in each update.

2020/21 Net Profit, last forecast = £1.498bn - Latest forecast = £1.412bn
2021/22 Net Profit, last forecast = £1.622bn - Latest forecast = £1.604bn
2022/23 Net Profit, last forecast = £1.690bn - Latest forecast = £1.604bn

(They have year 2 and 3 as standing still for Net Profit with both the same (median+ mean/2 throughout)

Did the market get sight of these latest "downcasts" on last Friday's big plunge - the 7th August! (?)

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus

Off out busy, so a quick look-see and away ...

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My opinion for (what it's worth :)

Tightly packed (intraday-only) supports and resistances today, once again.
Not expecting any wide ranging 10p gallops in any direction. And the worst of the supports is well above 100 (102) and well better (higher) after that, further confirmation that a sub-100 revisit is remote and highly unlikely for the immediate future. Minimum acceptable closure for today? 109

But the next pivot point resistance is only 1p up at 110. Next up is 113.

Been casting an eye on the "patterns" (if any) since the big crash down to mid/late March - and there does appear to be one in play - in BT's case. Lots of consistent small peaks and troughs - all of them gently ending by leading lower and lower. Mostly lower highs at each peak from mid March to currently, the lows not so readable but as a whole - definitely the major lows have been lower, but messy in between.

So -

that 113 I'm seeing as today's pivot point derived resistance, is coincidentally quite important - because it more or less fits with where (if this little climb back falters) where it would capitulate and do such a thing - If the SP is in such an aforementioned temporary pattern.

So, a minimum close of 109 please, but if 110 is on the cards, that would be resting on an even better intraday resistance. Not prepared to elaborate further on next up at circa 113.

As mentioned previously, these 'fun' pivot point derived day traders supports and resistances have a daily life span only, and are null and void at the end of each trading day. Not so for today's third resistance level of 113.

It, roughly equates IMO as to where the next peak might falter and drift back lower if the March to the current time, is an actual pattern of gently down trending repeatable peaks and troughs, which for the past 5 months or so - it has done just that, gently descend - over all.

So if the unexpected happens and 113 was achieved today, I foresee no circumstances in which it would close above it. And would need further days ahead to garner the strength to go for more.

First things first - bag 109 and go for 110, any higher is pure speculation, and anybody's guess. Notice the possibility of closing lower (in the support areas) is not in my vocabulary today :)

Right; Brexit discussions - burrrghhh! Back to the business in hand.

Whilst waiting for after hours auctions to self update the SP did visit 108, but couldn't hold, and in the final seconds late of the clock, settled back as above at 107.

Now that's still a good finish, and most probably the confirmation needed to call this visit to sub-100 to be over, for the immediate future at least.

The thing that intrigued me was that last night I had 107 for both of today's resistances (110 as the third) Never seen that before. Realised I hadn't pumped in this morning's opening price and they adjusted to 107 and 108.
So 108 would jump clear over the first resistance and come to rest right on the second - suggesting ultra strong bullish performance, and potentially further gains to come.

Couldn't accept 2 resistances coming out the same and quickly discovered that it's my penchant for averaging down all figures to a single handy figure.

(28 variant figures all told, to start with each time)

They were both 107 but one was a small fraction over 107 whilst the other was bang on 107.49, so the computer was forced to round down to 107, hence both the same. I'm still claiming a good day for the SP as the second resistance only just achieves 108 by being a fraction above the 107.half way, due to the higher morning opening being added in.

In fact, sticking my neck out - and taking my forum life in my hands I hereby declare that IMO the sub 100 bear attack is over.
And I expect further bullish performance in the SP.

The only concern is, if ever there is a future concerted attack on going sub 100 again.
- Because it's that old mantra:
You can revisit a strong support several times - but revisit it once too often
- and it will give way!

Now from the concoction of heath-robinson combo trend lines just look below at the first bullish change in one of the trends since the sub-100 attack took place.

Admittedly It is the weakest and most impressionable, but still - it's triggered, so adding it all together the SP is building bullishly.

Further evidence that the ball is now heading towards the bulls court
- don't mess it up!

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BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
-
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH > > > NEW appearance - today! :)

Well, whilst I was endlessly stuck boiling alive in the mad-dog-and-Englishmen-go-out-in-the-mid-day-sun scenario, in a traffic jam due to police vehicle closure, I see from reviewing the day that the SP had an electric-like shock at 2pm-ish because it had performed in a distinctly lacklustre way up to that point, but thereafter for the remainder of the afternoon performed faultlessly.
So much so, that based on probabilities, holders have every right to look forward to Monday with decent bullish expectations. I like how it closed. A good job by the SP. I'm quite impressed by a 105 close to the week, after last Friday's battering - and a decent response to that terrifying close to last week's Friday.

What I think (and from now on focussing on) is going to be more important (perhaps revealed in the next week or two) sentiment that might get looked at again, when the very first Q2 forecasts get published. (BT's Q2 actuals won't get reported until v late October).

If last Friday's SP action was the market's response to a lowly, but not too-oo bad, Q1 interim update (IMO) because it included the initial bearish hits of the lockdown, then what will the analysts and subsequently the market make of last years Q2 (or rather the cumulative H1 results as they will become known) which happen to be the biggest amounts of all last year, with last year coming in with £563m Net profit for Q2 - that is some humungous challenge to overcome (Q1 produced £448m which was down from the previous year of £505m).

So last year's quarter jumps from Q1 £505m up to Q2 £563m.
(As said this year's Q1 produced only £448m).
If they do come at BT with a baseball bat should this year's Q2 fail to improve, just bare in mind the shocking result in last year's Q4 which gave one of the lowest ever recorded quarters, at only £208m Net profit! Shockingly low!!

Which means dead easy pickings for BT to beat with the greatest of ease in the last quarter of this financial year to look forward to.

Jumping way, way ahead, and presupposing BT smashes that end of the year Q4, which I most firmly expect they will, then you'd be justified in thinking the market would award BT some bullish sentiment brownie points - as it certainly detracts them every time BT comes under the preceding year. But that's to look forward to, in the year-end quarter, which in effect that will mean learning of that outcome next year.

Back to the present. So for next Monday, I'm not expecting another panic-ridden knee jerk reaction as witnessed last Friday, and perhaps some sort of ahem "normality" if one can say that about 5 years of unremitting decline in the SP.

Another post and I'm done for the night.

Tsk! Wanted to review the price action and I find its notes and queries time. First up:
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" Velo
'it becomes accepted as an urban myth-like truism'

Apocryphal would have been a better word.
Toff "
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In a word - NO . As in no it wouldn't be better. That word is barred from my house. Hate it.
You'll never find me using it - ever!
It's clumsy and 'orrible.
AND not fit for purpose, in this instance

However, the reason it won't do is because it's inaccurate for this occasion. It's definition means it allows for the possibility that something said might eventually be later proven to be true.

I'm talking about intentional lies perpetrated for villainous reasons, not things that could be regarded as true and authentic - if only the right or lost evidence ever turned up to support the assertion.

Too many of 'might', 'doubtful veracity' etc., I want definitions for a deliberate lie proffered as the truth. There's no ambiguity, no doubt, so it can't be apocryphal.

PS. Just checked this minute - Oxford dictionary - of doubtful authenticity. Doubtful is not the same as proven beyond all reasonable doubt. So, thank you but no thanks, offer declined.

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UncleBucks57 @ " Velo we are all entitled to an opinion. I read and respect what others say and you should too! "

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No, you can't 'make' someone respect Mein Kampf.
You can't make someone respect a death cult that masquerades as an international religion.
I don't abuse those above, but I withhold my respect.

Your post showed a good grasp of BT's history, so I don't accept the windy explanation that you didn't mean no profit generated. Why not say you meant if BT doesn't return to increasing profits each year as in previous years?

BT has never produced a loss.

If you didn't know and were just assuming so because of general negativity in analyst reports in the media I would readily accept you saying "I didn't know".

Far too many of us would rather invent than admit 'I don't know - I don't know the answer but I will find out and come back to you' - and would gain my full and enduring respect - because it would have been earned - and not given on demand.

PS. Read my post again and I'm sure you'll find a line where I admit there is much of what you say that bears consideration - I'm with you on the quality of the mediocre BOD. Disagree on your pension deficit views. Do you actually know there is a decade long plan that eradicates the pension deficit as a concern indefinitely, once it matures by 2030?
I wonder if you truly do; even many journos miss it

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