Member Info for Velo

Thanks for highlighting the strength around the 52 area, jem1971.
I was tied up travelling on the motorway for a couple of hours today, and occasionally in the service/rest areas, it looked like the support at 52 was going to run with it, all the way, right into the close.
You were right to highlight it.

Just done some spreadsheet calcs for tomorrow and for the first time since this retrace commenced, there’s not one intraday support showing up in the 50’s.
They all start with a 4 !

Conicidentally, and most unexpected for Tuesday, 51 has popped up yet again, as the bare minimum close that would indicate the SP was determined not to relinquish the 50’s. Wasn’t expecting that. That's the only chance the SP has tomorrow.

All in all, the SP doesn’t have much room to manoeuvre. Only the slimmest of slim chances that the SP can refrain from sinking further, as things looking most ominous for a visit into the 40’s as the next stage, IMO.

After pumping in this morning's opening, I think this bid speculation rally will continue should the SP close no less than circa 111

In fact closing within sight of 113 - 118 would show more to come, from tomorrow, after gathering that kind of pace today.

Only closing on or below 108, would IMO, suggest the market has begun to have reservations

Who will it be?

You make it sound like one of these -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PgAKzmWmuk

Aww bugger! Typed 'revenue' instead of NET PROFIT, so the bottom figures of -

" . . . But at least they do get halfway there with Analysts now forecasting no, up and down in Net Profit, but back to steadily growing year on year, with no sign of dropping off by year 3.
Here look -

Revenue 2020/2021
- - - - - - £1.440bn

Revenue 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.632bn

Revenue 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.661bn "

Should have simply read -

But at least they do get halfway there with Analysts now forecasting no, up and down in Net Profit, but back to steadily growing year on year, with no sign of dropping off by year 3.
Here look -

Net Profit 2020/2021
- - - - - - £1.440bn

Net Profit 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.632bn

Net Profit 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.661bn

The 3 year forecasts.
=================

Revenue is still showing no consistency in growth with these forecasts for REVENUE actually still lower than those previously issued, so that blows my hopes out of the water of a new sentiment mood, courtesy of the analysts for a recognisable, momentum shift upwards, here look -

Revenue 2020/2021
- - - - - - £21.533bn

Revenue 2021/2022
- - - - - - £21.508bn

Revenue 2022/2023
- - - - - - £21.490bn

But what a difference in Net Profit.
It would appear they are drawing a line under this current year by forecasting it to be the worst ever, lowest, for Net Profit, but then all subsequent years increase steadily.

Sadly by year 3, it's still below what was achieved just last year. But at least they do get halfway there with Analysts now forecasting no, up and down in Net Profit, but back to steadily growing year on year, with no sign of dropping off by year 3.
Here look -

Revenue 2020/2021
- - - - - - £1.440bn

Revenue 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.632bn

Revenue 2021/2022
- - - - - - £1.661bn

What you see for Net Profit is desperately, desperately, needed for Revenue. Y-O-Y increases!
Still no sign of that in Revenue in any way, shape or form.
Up to BT to show them what's what, then.

H1 season concludes at the end of next month Sept and publishes by early November I think, or maybe last days of October.

Data culled from:
https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/bt-group-consensus-21-aug-2020.pdf

Posted the above heading on Sunday, but so much interest in the bid defence posts I left it all until this evening, so here it is -
-----------------------

Will split this into 2 short posts to avoid too many numbers. The Consensus Analysts Forecasts for an updated Q2 (and hence H1) came out on the weekend, and they have mostly started to increase their forecasts, but I still think a bit too low from what I saw of Q1 actuals.

(I'm looking for a sustained increase in their forecasts - not their accuracy). If they keep increasing, sentiment is sure to follow, likewise.

For Q2 they've increased Revenue from the last update of £5.369bn to £5.395bn in this forecast.
For Q2 they've increased Net Profit from the last update of £278m to £290m in this forecast.

Revenue, I think is much of a muchness, but unless they're right about Covid lockdown impacting in this Q2 period, I think they are woefully under forecasting net profit - but hey I'm looking for increases not accuracy - so 2 ticks on that score.

--------------------

(Will leave out revenue to keep this post shorter so straight in to net profit only)

Here's H1 Net Profit actually achieved by BT for last year = £1.068bn

Now get ready for the shock, despite increasing Q2, so that the H1 Net Profit forecast now comes in higher at £738m

- That's right they're forecasting a decrease in net profit of down 30+% against last year!

But that is them raising their forecast as previously they had something like 50% down.

So don't look at their accuracy v yours, just take in, that they're starting to increase forecasts.

Next post to separate from this, is on the full 3 year's forecasts as at this weekend > > >-

Thegreatraymondo @
" My understanding of the day is this : I reckon the market is very unsure of these rumours and whether they have traction. If it is all rubbish, I think the SP would have ended circa Fridays close. If they believed it all true, 120 would have been my uninformed guess. So jury still out ? "

- One way to determine if the 'market is unsure' or should 'have traction' is the volume. A substantial SP movement on low volume is tantamount to unreliability and answers all your questions.

Today's volume upon first glance is not just average but looks almost like double the average volume!

(I noticed it was approx 85% of a normal day's volume whilst still in the morning - Fleccy posted of 20m volume I believe well before 9:00am!)
By late morning the volume dropped off dramatically and for the rest of the day. So the early birds were determined to get in first.

The 50 day average volume is 27.5m,
The 20 day (day to day averagey volume) is 22.2m
Today's stand out volume was 39.7m!

So, pictorially it did look like almost double the 'normal', average volume on first glance. That's serious intent and no whim. Without an actual bid it would be out and out gambling to buy at much higher prices. Personally I like how the market could go no further than the 110 third resistance of the day. Just about sums it up. The 7% gain says to me that the market thinks there's no smoke without fire, but unless we see a real live bid, we ain't selling granny to get in. So, about okay in my book - so far.

The 100-teens is certainly possible tomorrow but would be very surprised indeed if it went to 120's with no bid. So everything is nicely balanced IMO.

Could very well be jem1971 (52p)
- but for tomorrow, the last chance saloon IMO, is more likely to prove to be a tad lower @ 51. The SP might get rebuffed there, and survive from plunging lower.

---------------------------

What's with this "chartist prediction " in the post headline everyone's using?
And here's me thinking I was airing a post based on the balance of probabilities, but someone thinks instead it must be a Nostradamus prediction :)

Prediction my Rrrrs!

I study everything, of all disciplines, appertaining to stocks, including a reasonably deep understanding of financial
balance sheet metrics.

I notice the other day when I bullishly compared BWNG'S fundamental
P/E ratios, most favourably to the competitors within its industry, nobody posted under "fundamentalist bullish prediction"

- Hey perhaps that's it :)
Someone can't tolerate anything but bullish posts and would prefer to stick their head in the sand, and their fingers in their ears, chanting, nah-nah-nah-can't-hear-you, if any bearish opinion piece is posted, LOL!

Me? I prefer to hear all views in stocks I hold, good and bad. Even if the bad as in this case was suffixed with:
" For the short term ".

Seeing as there's been no actual, real, physical bid of any sort, I think then, that the SP has put in a sterling performance today; 7% gain!

And, proof of the pudding - broke through not one, but two resistance levels
( breaking past 3 resistance levels is asking for VC medal honours standard of achievement; yes it happens, but not with any regularity).

And on the balance of probabilities putting together today's days hi's and lo's, almost certainly indicates another bullish day on the cards. With some tough resistance levels to break through tomorrow, it will be uplifting to see if any of them fall to the SP, but will post my thoughts on those numbers, either first thing :am or later tonight.

Got another post that currently resides somewhere in me 'ead, and then that's it for a week and a half as hitting he road tomorrow lunchtime.

Yep, a terrific day. More of the same bullishness tomorrow, all being well.

PS.
BT Achieved a new Ultra-short-term bullish trend line added today in its favour with the Short-term trend line looking v ready to pop bullishly perhaps even by tomorrow's close, if all goes well, or maybe a day later.

"I'm still bearish for the short term, going into Monday, . . . "
--------------------------

And not only that, but worse than I expected.

Needs to close above 55 and as near to 58 as possible, otherwise, if it closes here circa 53, or worse as it was 10 minutes or so ago in the 52's then almost certainly heading for the 40's from tomorrow onwards.

PS. Yeah SP dropping back a litte bit now. Coming out of overbought too. Currently R3 too strong.

The day is still young though.

Intraday, 5 minute live price charts.

Price looking very overbought (intraday wise only).

Suggesting, unless later hours brings in new blood, it's peaking and topping out for this early morning.

It's struggling with the uppermost 3rd pivot point resistance.
It's knocked off R1 and R2 already, so doing well (107 and108 after adjusting for correct opening price).

R3 proving a bridge too far. . . . for the moment, that is.

Bugger! It's changed the opening price to 109p dead on! Pumped that in - and can't be bothered to repost, 1p change here and there.

Incidentally, ran the normal set-up for comparison and figures not too different from omitting the adjusted version this morning LOL!

Suggesting all in all the market is not going to run wildly overly stratospheric, maybe - who knows?

So 108 open!

Interfered with the formulae by omitting one of the calcs that specifically excludes the morning opening price from the total of all averages. A full day's hi's and lo's will give a better view for Tuesday, that will take care of bid speculation; but it's not designed for the first day of bid speculation; by end of day in readiness for Tuesday - then yes; but today? Unlikely.

Anyway, here's the morning's inclusion of latest pivot points levels updated from Sat's post, on what the computer now says (it knows nothing of any talk of bids, therefore it is 'blind') -

3rd resistance to overcome:
110

2nd resistance to overcome:
107

1st resistance to overcome:
107

----------------

Neutral pivot point:
104

----------------

1st support must not sink below:
104

2nd support must not sink below:
101

3rd support must not sink below:
98

Probably came out Sat morning as dated 21st August, but didn't check then, so might even have been rushed out this very morning. And of course surprise surprise, all forecasts increased across the board. Not a lot though. Running a book on the analysts momentum so will post later in day after updating spreadsheets and other odd jobs.

I'll accept your recollection.

I had £44/46-odd in mind but it was seeing $50 not £££'s that messed me up :)

" The $50-per-share offer, an 18 percent premium, “fundamentally undervalues Unilever,” the firm said, adding that it had “no merit, either financial or strategic” and that there was no reason to talk more. "

. . . then the MM's could in theory ask for anything up to just below 150p, so be wary of any madness around 140, as no one has yet come forward to bring even the laughable £15bn to life. But the MM's would earn nice commissions.

Grant - here's the full monty from Friday's results in readiness for Monday, BUT need as usual Monday's opening price to be more accurate, and I do think the Monday opening will significantly change the following, considerably:

Old Friday night calcs for MONDAY:

3rd resistance:
108

2nd resistance:
105

1st resistance:
103

Neutral pivot point:
102

1st support:
100

2nd support:
99

3rd support:
96

Forget all the supports - not gonna happen now, IMO.

I also think the 8:00am gap-up will steam past the top 3rd resistance or if not, open around it.

Just need a company name to admit ownership of a bid, but then backtrack for whatever reason blaming the BT board's intransigence to save face - don't care.

A dummy bid, or just a company name to admit to the 'rumour' even if it all fails, will be enough to ensure £1 is never seen again IMO.

" Yet again, velo will have to spend time moving his pivot point, as always, after the horse has bolted."

--------------------

Grant, can't wait to input Monday's opening SP to add into Friday's desultory price points !

Betting it will play havoc with the calcs :)

But best of all will be Monday's close as I'm expecting it to offer up previously unbelievable resistances/supports, quite unimaginable at Friday's close.

My thinking's been idly roaming since this news. Remember Buffett's "feeler's" he put out for a friendly taker over of Unilever? Don't think Buffett actually got as far as a bid (did he talk of £50?)

The Unilver lot were anything but friendly, but the price shot up from high £20's I think, to over £40 odd when Buffett walked away. But the SP kept rising. Something had awakened in sleepy investors and £40 odd was the new arena. Waited to see if it would come back to low £30's but it never did. It rose over the next 2 years to £50+ and today is £45.

So if a bid materialises and gets defeated, I'm thinking the SP may never return to the £1 area. All those who posted of £1 being the floor, may well turn out to have the final word.

My own thinking now, is that £1 will go now, never to be seen again. Even if it fails to go £££'s higher, it will show that others realise the true value in BT either by asset stripping (Openreach) or running the whole enterprise, as is.

Won't be surprised to see the SP gap-up on Monday morning, to higher SP, and believe 101 will no longer be offered to you at 8:00am Monday - even if it turns out to be a rumour only.

If BT was only worth 98p the other day, what do the bidders want with BT then?

A low ball offer will be enough to awaken the whole market, as they may think if this fails then another bidder will be along in years to come, so I'm thinking £1 is already dead and gone, before the markets even open on Monday.