Member Info for Velo

Bommer, have more trust in your own judgement. I can be as horrendously wrong in my opinions as the next guy.

Hope it's ill-founded, but looking a right sh !tty day for tomorrow.

Thanks for the video link Fleccy; I watch stuff like that.

In a similar vein is the documentary LEHMAN BROTHERS under the BBC's series of "Storyville" (if you have the full TV facilities of live pause and live playback etc.,) and is worth viewing under 'Catch Up'.

Forget which year (only watched it Sunday night) they have it under, but 2017 or something - they lump all the years in one list.

The sheer Al Capone out and out criminality of Lehman's Brothers criminals, defies belief. And the white house cover-up's to let them go free.

(One of the former junior scape-goat staff victims, wears a handgun, practising in woods in the video, and has never worked in finance again, out of fear).

Anyway, from your video link, useful to know I could set up my very own tax evasion trust, no problem, with no licences and no check up's required etc., :)

1)
Congratulations, we've been watching you. Stage one achieved, closed above 63. Good job. But only in fractions above and still on 63, so doesn't quite cut it.
--------------------------------

Your mission, should you accept it, is to complete the next two tasks, without which, success will be denied.

Here are your next 2 orders to complete your mission:

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2)
Tomorrow, Wednesday, MUST open at 63 (or higher).

Whatever happens it's a fail if the SP gaps-down to open below 63 - even if it goes on to close above 63.
After which, the SP MUST go on to close the day above the 63 opening.
Do you understand?

3)
Still not enough. The following day, Thursday, we'll need confirmation. The SP must now confirm it's dominance by remaining clear above 63 and closing the day higher than 63. Dipping back below 63 won't be acceptable.

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Do you accept?

If so, good luck. Get a good night's sleep.

This post will self-destruct in 5 seconds

Nige - instead of investing in the likes of ITV etc., have you ever considered investing in the boring ol' FTSE?

Nooooo, not the index - but the company that runs the FTSE index?

Over nigh on 20 years a £10k investment in LSE would leave you today seriously wealthy as a half millionaire!

Could only afford a £5k investment back then? Okay you'll have to slum it with being just a quarter millionaire LOL!

In fact, at ANY given time (bar the 2008 crash era) almost nothing, be it equity, pension fund or star fund manager would have outperformed that investment
- and it pays a dividend!

Watched it for years but almost cry every time I look, wailing - 'what's wrong with me?'

Why did I keep wailing: "Well that can't keep rising!"

Honest to god take a look at its price action history - it could happily sit amongst the FAANG stocks and you wouldn't know which chart was which.

It's rocketed from bottom left to top right - all years, every year - year after year.

Wasted so much time, but think I will buy it at some point . .. .just waiting for another March crash LOL!

But seriously, it's been a perennial non-stop out-performer yet never gets picked up by any investment mag, why?

A grower - and divi payer - the LSE! That's LSE as in the London Stock Exchange company mind!

Here -
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=LSE&share=London-Stock-Exchange

Moral of this post? Never buy a punt on a random horse - buy the bookie instead!

Also, add to the "Please explains" -

* Why the significant headcount reductions ongoing and planned, leaves him unimpressed

* Why he believes the Pension deficit plan won't work.

* And how in his opinion the removal of a significant net (profit) contributer to BT's balance sheet would produce the opposite effect to that currently.

" Really indecisive action coming from the SP with 107 being today's "indecisive" pivot point."

Error!

107?
- Thought it looked a tad high as I posted it, so just rechecked and had messed up this morning's opening price.

So the pivot point is less than 107 coming in at 106, making things a smidgen easier for the day.

Fleccy @
" Do investors need to look for the floor Velo, or is the treasure in the current low share price?
If someone invested a £100,000 tomorrow in BT, around current levels, is there any reason why they wouldn't be seeing a big profit in a year, or two from now? "

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Well what a big question. The whole market would like an answer to that one :)

On the second sentence one could consider the visits (and failures) to remain sub-100.
March this year, was the first real fright when the SP had it's first taste of going for the big one - breaking 100p! It got down as far as circa 107 and later in May it intradayed to as low as 101 and over a couple of days mostly around the lower 101 - 104 area.

Then on July 31st came the first taste of sub 100 with 2 days parlaying around 98. The bears having grabbed the company colours hooped and hollered away as it was chased out of the fort to higher ground, where the SP lies today.

Now, is that it? It smells like the pattern of the £5, £4, £3 and £2 of previous forts that fell to the injuns - Will they be satisfied with 98p?

I look to the trends to clear the smoke from the guns, and they're looking real bad to me. They still say the SP is under the control of the bears, despite the little rallies.

Then again, it's taken from March through May, until August for the bears to get first blood - sub 100!
Many think that effort means this area is too strong for the bears. I posted last week (I think) of having the first ultra short term bullish trend, observable.

Right now it's gone, dissipated away so that it's a full house of all bearish only down trends.

Currently with the SP breezily swinging to just either side of each day's intraday pivot point, and not breaking through ether a resitance or a support of any meaning, I'm of the opinion the market is uncertain whilst it asks the very same question you and investors also pose - is this the floor, or not?

Really indecisive action coming from the SP with 107 being today's "indecisive" pivot point. The fact that the SP closes slightly above one day or slightly below the next is forcing one to make a decision when clearly it's stating indecision rules the day.

The market is trying to decide: Is this the final floor area and time to load up - or hunker down, or ship out?

It doesn't know. And even though trends are still bearish I think the current truth of the matter is that the market doesn't know how to price BT either; or isn't interested.

In the meantime I follow the trend - when it decides to become more decisive, that is.

In no particular order -
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Nicely put, JepGambardella.
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" The true current P/E's for airlines and travel are probably incalculable really, . . ."

That's my findings Fleccy.
They've been given financial regulatory clearance to

a ) delay trading reports and

b) Refrain from issuing market guidance for the current year if they so choose, due to Covid.

I say that because I had a differing view on Easyjet's P/E v BT's P/E ratio.
(PS. Always dangerous to compare stocks from one industry to a completely different industry)

The "historic" P/E for BT has been as you say PE6 (currently 6.1)
But so is Easyjet's!

It's historic PE ratio is also showing on this site as P/E6 ( currently 6.4)
However that's the past trading year, what's the forward P/E ratio?
That's more important, and BT's fwd P/E is 5.62 (but again if analysts forecasts prove reliable then with lower earnings that will drift back up over P/E6

But got a surprise when trying to find Easyjet's - everything is blanked out! The old forecast for Easyjet's financial year that ends in September was for a Net Profit LOSS! (Although there was a reduced net profit showing before that. So, it really is too hard to make heads or tails out of those stocks taking the regulatory guidance offer of opting out of reliable financial data due to Covid and investors trying to draw meaningful conclusions.

Best to stay within industry groupings and/or within sector, and as a fallback - against the whole market - and in that, BT is seriously devalued when compared to the P/E's of its industry competitors.

The market would have to increase the SP by just under triple the current price just to fit in with the boring P/E average, of its industry peers!

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And if I may say so, the correct strategy for you. Absolutely.

The long term trends are ALL bullishly in a v strong well established 5 year uptrend. With the low entry you achieved years ago, it's pointless, absolutely pointless, cashing in whilst the uptrend is so strong, (unless you have a big domestic expense coming up) in both fundamentals and in SP trends. And I commend you on your successful strategy.

I, on the other hand, being a new entrant this year, felt I'd bought in too high and subsequently traded down just to shoe-horn myself out of the 50's and into the 40's whilst the opportunity presented itself.

Fate smiled and it was no falling knife scenario (both the long term trends and the fundamentals made a fearful catch a falling knife concern, redundant).

I have plans to return all funds into SLP, but am trying something, not without risk, to eventually a) hold more shares for less cost (or maybe similar cost) in the shadow of a protective shield of an established long term bullish uptrend, and hopefully continuing admirable fundamentals.
I may fail in the next part of my strategy . . . but he who dares and all that :)

Ironically what would ensure failure of my strategy is a STRONGER continuing uptrend than it already is - and that is a very distrinct possibility.

So funds will all boomerang back, for the long haul, but with a downside risk of returning less shares to my account - at a higher cost! :)

For clarity:

I too, have also taken a small top-slice this morning @ 60.2

Quite pleased with that. One of those occasions where the spread is not so onerous.

Effectively bagged all the profits and returns my holding to it's full investment amount, less all profits.

If the SP rises further, won't add to another top-slicing unless it's a substantial rise.

Quite happy . . . so far.

" Didn't look good today. Velo whats your take on the current situation ?"

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Nah, it didn't did it? And now a bit iffy looking for tomorrow.

Looks to me like it's continuing with that 3 or 4 month lower-highs pattern that was mentioned the other day. Thought if that's it's game, it'll likely peter out round about 113 or so, but its lacking the energy even for that - and is looking like it's up for tailing off already.

Don't see it looking for sub-100, but the intraday supports are all looking a lot lower, and that being the case, wouldn't be surprised to see it close circa 105 tomorrow. Not expecting a big dramatic fall or anything, just annoyingly, slow shifting sand type, lower.

However, weak and as lacklustre as the SP was today, it didn't travel that-far-south, so maybe if something positive's about in BT development news etc., it could hold off from 105's?

It's typical BT!

Finding the ultimate floor in BT is harder than finding hidden treasure. We need a bunch of sea pirates on day release; they're good at finding hidden treasure.

Will have to remove that brand new bullish label I stuck on ultra short term trend just a few days ago, if tomorrow it does close on 105, and hand back the old bearish label for it to stick on itself.

Yep - today's price action, although not to blame, as the SP was heading there, closer and closer - is once again just slightly over the overbought threshold.

A little bit closer to the release of the results and I don't think it would matter much, but it's still full weeks away, so I'm expecting some minor pullbacks of the nervous varity. Nervous variety in that we've all seen how much blue is lit up in out profit columns, so it's only natural to anchor to it.

August is doing what's always done for the past 5 years and delivering; it's just a matter of perspectives, but will not be surprised to witness a temporary pullback.

Meant to add -

For at least the last 3 days, this top rated performance by the SP has in that time, had the unfortunate side effect of pushing the SP way, way over, into overbought territory.

So the SP will likely either retrace somewhat from here, and after perhaps consolidating, launch that big attack on the 200 day ma in later days/weeks.

However, it's possible other forces are at work and the SP could continue as is, for some time with only minor pull backs, but it can't continue any advance with the same ferocity of strength whilst it's so overbought.

So, minor strides forward if it's the latter, or if the former, then a hurtful retrace, hopefully either option only temporary
- but the SP is (unbelievably, but true) - overbought.

Quite a bravo SP performance today from this historically serial-disappointer of an ol' dog of a stock, that had been left unfed, and then turned feral, to live in the woods!

It's been in a major, non-stop bearish down-trend ever since peaking at the very beginning of 2014 . . . 6 years!

6 feckin' years!!!

Yes, buying at anytime between then and halfway through March of this year during the worldwide market crash, and you too (like me) would be well out of pocket. However, there's something rather special about today's price action though. And it's very telling.

One of the institutions and large funds most telling metric is when a stock either falls through or breaks above it's 200 day average price. (Marry it with a lower trend line average, and they call it the Death Cross - when an SP descends below it. But break through and cross over & above it, and they call it the Golden Cross).

And it should be the most telling metric for longer term holders too. On the whole, ever since 2014, BWNG has spent the majority of it's time below the 200 day average - had to be if the SP was falling nearly all the time. Coincidentally, one of the best but brief forays above it, was as recent as autumn 2019 through to halfway through the March crash. But for that big crash, things were stirring up nicely for BWNG. Somebody had been leaving cans of Pedigree Chum in their local woods for that feral dog! But the market crash put paid to that foray.

Which brings me to today's price action. I just couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it intraday kiss smack on 63p!

That 63p is important, not because of its price - but because it's the current price where the long suffering, gently descending, 200 day average, currently resides at.

I'll say this as a raging certainty:
Fail to break past 63 and then permanently live above it, and this dog of a share is going nowhere in the future - it's that important!

The 200 day trend price will change, given time; so rather than 63p - what's really important is where the v slow moving 200 day average resides at, at any given point. Right now it's 63.

Couldn't believe it when the SP rose from this morning's low, travel a 15% gain to actually reach out and kiss 63 on the lips - Eugh, dirty dog!

Your mission, should you accept it, is to get this ol' dog up and past 63 to live permanently in it's new home, and that ain't the woods, but a home that resides at anything, literally anything, above 63. And that's only the starting gate.

Eventually the 200 day average will rise above 63 if the SP keeps climbing. So the SP can never look backwards for long, bar the odd temporary glance.

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BWNG Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!

Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

Took a break from a task and idly flicked to LSE to see my portfolios as already 15% up one day alone today on another stock :) just as I took a bite of a choccy biccy with my cuppa, I saw the blue profit for SLP - and before I scanned across to the left to see the price I was already coughing, and when I saw 60.50p as the reason for the large profit I wasn't coughing by now, but seriously choking, and gulped tea to control the coughing.

Tsk! Will have to have another choccy biccy now.

" But it's got to turn at some point "
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Yes, agreed Bommer, that's the name of this particular game. Might be years away, might not. Who's to say?

Until then, as you correctly say, the predominant trend is bearish, so any forays into going long during bullish rallies (which I indulge in sometimes, from time to time with BT) have to be temporary, whilst all the time keeping a rear-view mirror in focus, for the mean reversion back to the predominant bearish down trend.

1).
Default position for BT "should" (sadly) be long term short, riding out every temporary bullish rally, by staying short.

2).
Whilst No:1 is still in play, all long positions must be kept on a very tight leash.

3).
1 & 2 void (once a range bound floor is established) but that has yet to be observed.
So, welcome to the observatory telescope tower :)

" Velo, I would have thought that with BT closing up, all be it very slightly that it would be a bullish sign taking in to account that the FTSE100 closing down 95 points? "

I agree NigeCo, but am lacking full confidence in saying so, because of the intraday travails.
Nonethless, I concur and do say more likely to be bullish than not.

" Trends all st "

Oops internet bandwidth . . . .

" Trends all still very bullish. If they could speak to me they'd be saying:
Shut up! Sit down. Sit back - and let me continue delivering my job description for a bullish uptrend. "

" . . . The results will be interesting. Traditionally SLP has dropped down a touch on sterling results for it to only then move higher in it's own time. I liken SLP to a cat. It does what it wants when it wants. :) . . . "

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Spot on Stoodio! - You're reading my mind again : )

Just what I'm wrestling with at the moment.

I'm actually going back and checking manually but seen enough after just 3 years - the 5 year pattern is there - a terrific rise in the SP every August - followed by a swift decline in September, after sight of the (normally) excellent results.

So was actually checking what the esoteric fun-only seasonal cycles charts throw up, and thank you for confirming that with your own living-through-it-over-the-years-first-hand-experience.
(Incidentally due to confusion over August starting dates I'm now revising my 'seasonal cycles' expectations for end of August SP to vary between 57-59p, with literally meanwhile, anything in between, meantime).

Many SLP holders it would seem, appear to take profits on publication of the annual results. What?!?
Yes, it's true; that' s been the case for some years.

But,
- for the first time there's maybe a mega divi to be paid out - will that fact break the pattern?
- It's that, that I'm wrestling with. And what if the results advise of even more divis to come in future results?
Can't leave it to the last minute and decide on the day. Need two decisions in advance, pre-thought out.

The first involves good results and no big dividend, the second involves good results and a big divi pay out.

If a big divi is announced, will have to see if it's truly mega and thus maybe ditch my strategy and hold all the way through the anticipated quiet autumn and Xmas period, until the potentially good months commence early next year (seasonal cycles).
No big divi and I do what a large SLP proportion do every year and sell on the results (Usually first few days of September before the results, the SP is still continuing to rise).

So, two weeks left of this month, so what next?

I'm expecting an unrelenting rising SP throughout August. Of course like the other day, with the odd mini pullback. I'm loving the close on Friday - lovely profit to see.

However, won't be at all surprised to see another short-lived pull back next week, before the August effect re-continues. So a continuance looks likely because of historic August performance, but interspersed with a few nerves on the way to the month's close. Might take the odd top-slice on the way to the results, if large enough SP gain, but then again a sizeable divi could make me regret that. A big divi could upset the apple cart good and proper, so the annual exodus of holders after results day in Sept potentially means, shouldn't take recent history for granted.

Wish there wasn't media speculation of a sizeable divi - as would know with absolute certainty and conviction what actions to take.

Trends all st