Member Info for Velo

" However I am stuck with the feeling that it is going to bob around the 60 mark for a while. "
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That is my 'expectation' (Circa -ish) for roughly the month-ends of all 4 forward months in particular for the last trading day of this year.

Quite prepared to have my feet held to the fire and held to account if catastrophically way out, as basing that on the past behavior of the past 4 years of Sept to Dec in SLP.

Not bearish on SLP - on the contrary, I firmly expect Jan and Feb to near enough emulate the 2 historically best months of the year in SLP - July and Aug which we've just come through. Now for the kipper season.

To confuse things I will monitor the actual performance in conjunction with SLP's trend lines. So they will rule. Just hoping they go on to confirm my medium range plans for the 'topping-up season' :)

dallo - (Posted last Friday) =
". . . Still a big holder here and bought another 30,000 shares just now . . ."

- Gulp! Crikey!!!

How did you manage to buy that amount "just now" as that suggests you bought in one tranche on Friday?.

The EMS for KAPE is just 3,000, so how on earth did you manage to buy 30,000 all in one go without paying a deeply, disadvantageous price?

Did you make 10 separate tranches of buys?

I intended to pose a question to this forum once the results were in, with some data culled from elsewhere, on the future once the 10 years approx are up.

Just been adding up all the cash from all the various sources and compared to the current Market Cap.

Not a huge amount to go before rather than just buying back shares ad hoc on the open market as they're doing at present - but they could buy out all the retail investors. Is it possible they intend going private and so are building up a warchest to buy us all out in the future BEFORE the 10 years are up?

He ill-timed his purchase - at 63p, so horses for courses.
(He'd have benefitted from buying in 3 or 4 tranches; then he'd have caught the various 50's-odd for a nice average).

Ha! I should talk, as an old warhorse I bought in years ago at pounds and pounds above 63 LOL! Maybe I should do like a Bazz.

The only one I didn't take the opportunity to clear out of. I need Marty and the Doc's DeLorean.

"This is trading on a historic PER of 1.5"
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Thanks for depressing me Panza.

An historic P/E of 1.5 (1.98 on forward P/E but still a disastrous rating) and hadn't been keeping tabs on this after the crash. Just checking on the price stirring.
Here's something for you:

A P/E of 7 is reckoned to be a deep value bargain stock and the type contrarian guru's select.
But a P/E of 5 or less is considered beyond the pale and to be avoided as any stock at 5 and under is causing great distress in the market and concerning. Hadn't noticed it had sunk to 1.odd - LOL!

Geezus - what a feckin' mess! Whatever possessed me to buy this dog in the first place?!?

A nice bullish close tonight. Bodes well for tomorrow.
Close on 109 minimum tomorrow Tuesday, for good things to follow IMO.

Bad things to come if it closes on 106 though.
That's your mission - keep the SP out of 106's clutches - by close.

One other post now, on the spreadsheet work I did the other night. It's of my own making and is neither TA or fundamentals, or related to the pivot points posted further below.

Very broadly, Sept through to Dec (four complete months) I have down as potentially a flat unispiring period with notable highs and lows in between, but by the end of each month, not much progress made in each month, when comparing monthly starts and month endings.

The same observations throw up both Jan and Feb as contrary to all that - with really, really, good "winning" months - the next seriously great months to be in for a good rise in the SP!
So loading up over the next 4 months and completed by 31st December promptly.

And the 1st week in Sept looms large in my view with potentially the highest SP of all the 4 months. However, with this late release of the trading results in week 2, compared to those years, it may be out of synch for Sept.

So maybe the high could be during this week and not that 66/67 of last week?

For tonight, I'm sticking with the spreadsheet and the 4 years of SLP's reliable repeatability. But let this week, the results week, unfold first.

PS. I have the ultra low for later months, lower than any in Sept, so hoping maybe that today was truly a one-off low?

" Moving on, where you think this leaves us!? "

Just about to post on that very subject, as that's exactly my thoughts at the end of the day and in such circumstances I turn to my pivot points (for fun) as that extreme drop must have introduced a joker into the pack - so was expecting some variance - and there is.

Just dare not reveal the upper and lower intraday resistances and supports for fear of bulletin board uncontrolled side splitting laughter.
Here's what I've come up with below for Tuesday - remember it's for fun reference only:
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Thought for fun, I'd throw some numbers in the day-trader's intraday wood-chipper, and see what comes out for tomorrow.

* First up if you believe the SP is about to start a new bull run, is that it must close no less than 69/70 tomorrow for that to come true.

* If you fear the SP becoming bearish then under no circumstances must the SP be allowed to close on 56 (or of course less).

* If it closes on 61 then that's indecisive with the market unsure about the trend. Neither bad nor good, just indecisiveness.

Better accuracy once the opening price is available first thing tomorrow.

I hear what you're saying Stoodio as often a long experience of exposure to the characteristics of a stock are often beneficial in offering insights to regular occurrences.

However, bear in mind "somebody big selling" doesn't mean a large solitary sale, but someone/or several, selling in smaller tranches repeatedly (more favourable terms).

It's what a trend is - an institution or more, taking time to unload or load up in stages, over weeks and months, as them making a massive move would mean a seriously unacceptable price offered to them as they're outside the EMS allowance and buying/selling what they really want would mean too much movement against themselves so would be self defeating trading by conducting large trades all in one go.

Also buys and sells are highly unreliable, as the market computers take a 'best guess' at whether a trade is a buy or sell is, as it can only compare to the spread prices.

(The EMS in SLP is very small at only 20,000 shares allowed, after which if you insist on trading at much higher tranches all in one go, you are offered distinctly, seriously unfavourable terms. And the computers then have to determine by the price whether that trade was either a sell or a buy).

It's why total volume is referred to, as the only reliable.

Ran some fibbo retracement levels but not much meat on the bone left to determine a potential floor. Would have to go into extentions and thus unreliabilty.

The best I can come up with is that this current area draws nicely with the 2009 market crash era, as this year's recent March crash retraced similarly. Other than that, best option, is that, will just have to monitor trends, regularly.

Well it was a huge volume day, the average 20 day volume is 1,499,631
And as I suspected today's volume was 4 times that amount, actually 4.6 times that amount!

The 50 day average volume is higher at 1,527,363
So today's volume alone is still similar in being 4.59 times larger.

The 200 day average volume is the largest at 2,047,780
And still today's volume is many times that at 3.4 times greater with a humongous volume of - here it is -

7,018,261 for Monday!

- That's why even at that time in the morning, I was alarmed at the drop to 52 in the SP, as large volume usually means it's the real deal; as fun and games manipulation (9 times out of 10) only occurs on low volume days.

Not a tree shake then - but somebody big throwing the towel in? It happens - selling on the news, most years with SLP.
Why? I don't know, but not very nice in the early part of the morning.

Thought it would have been more measured over days and/or weeks.

Well, don't know about anyone else, but I'm impressed by BT's SP defence today. Sterling performance!

The SP played well - out on the pitch, the boy done good!

Bears took it down to 100.2 and still from a dead easy start from the previous close they just couldn't do it. Bullish strength all day after that morning scrum down to the 100 border.

Last night I was coming up with 2 supports still in triple figures with the third at 99p but both the triple figure supports were near identical at circa 100. Then pumped in this morning's opening SP and daylight appeared in the 2 supports one saying 101 the other 100 and the third remaining at 99. So. just knew the SP was in with a fighter's chance.

During the day, I sucked through my teeth, going Neh . . . that 102 is no good (looked like it would close on 102)
- it's the neutral sub's bench - just won't do, and fully believed the first resistance of 103 was beyond reach.

But look at that close. 103! Gooooaaal!!!! The boy's done it.

Couldn't get past 103, but good enough to live another day.

Have to say, those posters believing this 100 area is the bargain floor are holding sway at the moment. How many times has the SP revisited here and not only survived, but is still the last man standing?

If this was a pump and dump, 100 would simply have carried on and collapsed by now. The fact that it's intact is the market concluding a bid is unlikely to succeed, but believes there is a clear and present danger - and is not a false pump and dump rumour - but genuine defence preparation by the BOD. It's the only logical reason 100 is still standing.

Can't call off the hunting dogs yet, as all trends and indicators have the downers on BT, and they have long whipped me into submission in believing what they say - goes.

So more of defence like today, until they (bearish trends) weaken, give up, and start singing (trending) bullishly. It's how it goes.

Apologies for so many posts after one another, but yep, volume is looking set to be the third or second highest single-day volume over the past 5 years, with it looking currently at 4x the average (20-day) average volume for a single day.

Will wait until all after-hours auctions et al, settle down and get full readings later on by 5pm-ish and post today's volume, because it's significant.

One thing's for sure - that was real selling early on this morning - daft buggers,
- it's ginormous volume so far and still coming in!

Think I've got that, in one of my many free E-downloads, Nimrod.

Just checked, nope - it's The Death of Money, by same author (Ex CIA bloke; Rickards) but know for certain he elaborates on gold in that book too.

Yet to read it, along with years-worth of other books.

The answer to what pattern you'll see for the price action for gold on the exact same time period as SLP
- is yet another "Bowl" formation!
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(Do any of the metal enthusiasts on here follow gold? Has that already been posted on gold forum's? I should imagine it has).

But anyway as rare as Bowls are (they're best when forming over a multi-year period) You wait an investing lifetime to see one and then you see two
- bit like buses! LOL!

So, on the same maths of deducting the floor price from the lip price and adding the result to the lip price to get the total average potential rise in the future, that means gold is rated to potentially rise to $3 short of $2800.

(Gold currently sitting at circa $1934 (Friday's price, as Labour day in US today.)

And if so, then it follows that SLP should rise to 100p minimum.
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Ahh, if only real world stock market experience were as easy :)

100p then Nimrod :)
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Staying with that bowl shape for a moment, it's an . . .

Opportune moment to reveal a discovery I made a month or so back.

Was examining the price of gold, as after posting on here that it looked to me as if it was indicating to turn bearish, it did so the very next day, but didn't return to post on it, as got caught up in the long term 'shape' of gold. I have since then been monitoring gold and SLP and come up with a little ditty.

First off, if you're interested, bring up gold on screen for the same time period since SLP was floated (2011) and post what shape you see :)

(You'll see, it's all 100% relative to your post)

As said, I was checking gold out and thought I had somehow freeze-framed SLP's chart.

It hadn't - gold and SLP are pretty much the same chart!
- in a way platinum and all the others in SLP's sphere of interest are not.

None of them (PGM's) mimic SLP's price action over the past decade - but gold's does.

here's the ditty:

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Wheresoever gold shall go
- So shall SLP follow.
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:)

None of the other PGM's, Palladium, Rhodium etc., do that - they have their own story and SLP's has it's own.

But gold and SLP could be the proverbial twins-separated-at-birth story! LOL!

Been awhile since I posted on here, but nearly always check out VOD in my watchlists. I'm posting to re-ask a question I posed last year by referring to an even older post of mine from Nov 2018 - this:

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From early Nov '18:

"... Just look at how the market has brought down the P/E of VOD from the beginning of this year (2018) to tonight's P/E15.4

Jan 2018 VOD was sporting a forward P/E ratio of P/E 26.0 !!!

April 2018 VOD was down to forward P/E 21.2

August 2018 VOD was down further to forward P/E 18.4

And tonight (9/11/18) VOD is down to a forward P/E of 15.4

... I ask the question - IS THE MARKET MERELY RE-RATING VOD DOWN TO PARITY WITH ITS PEERS; AND THUS STRIPPING VOD OF ITS PREMIUM P/E RATING?.... "

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Today, 7/9/2020, VOD's forward P/E ratio stands at P/E 15 - but here's the kicker; the industry average that VOD inhabits stands at P/E 14.1 So an SP of £1 would suggest 'fair value' had been achieved? Even 2018's P/E ratio was way above the industry average, but the industry average has declined too.

When the P/E ratio was in the high 20's and occasionally 30's the industry average back then was P/E16 so VOD was nearly always double the industry average - a premium rated stock. Vod's P/E ratio has fallen faster than the industry average, so almost at parity with the industry and no longer rated a premium stock.

I highlight in capitals the last sentence from 2018 to offer that it is now approaching the doorstep of becoming fact.

In other words, if the H1 result which closes at this month's end - and is published in early Nov or late Oct, and does NOT include further losses and instead reveals a net profit, might it be fait accompli by the market and perhaps signalling the floor in the SP could be in close proximity after all these years of decline?

Will run a Fibbo check for ultimate floors and see what that throws up and post later.

" I tried at 52 and got 60 which I was disappointed with at the time but ok with now."
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Thanks for the confirmation OldHebriddean (And Stoodio who posted of similar non availability to buy at published low prices).

Makes me feel a bit better. Was too busy navel-gazing and contemplating the meaning of life with the shock of seeing 52 come up on screen.

My medium term, topping-up plan still stands, as is.

I have an innate dislike and prejudice against promoting CEO's from within.
It's much better IMO to let them be chosen by other companies on merit and earn their spurs with a company in need of a shot in the arm.

Maybe posters have evidence of greenhorn CEO's performing well in their promotion from within the same company to the CEO hotspot, but my personal experience to date has been one of serial disappointment.

For balance a 20% drop is the day's close price minimum usually for Profit warning stocks, and SLP only intradayed to it and rebounded instantly.