Member Info for Velo

Better get some practice in then -

as-salamu alaykum, NigeCo.

Nicely timed piece to potentially revitalise the SP after it became obvious to all, that there was no holding the SP from heading sub 100 possibly for an indeterminate period, come Monday.

Sky reports this at 2pm Saturday. Coincidence? Unless there was some emergency, this seeking professional defence advisors on the weekend, was probably known before Friday's SP conclusively edging towards the precipice.

I like how the first sentence in the Sky piece omits any mention of a 5 year decline in shareholders value in the SP, the growing net debt or the pension deficit, falling revenue and now falling profit, as reasons for the SP decline, but instead offers the single reason of a dividend suspension as the sole reason for the low share price. Excuse me a moment while I go - LOL!!!

That opening para, to me, has the hand of BT management approval of origin, as it makes them sound innocent, as 99% of the market has had to suspend dividends, yet they're not threatened with takeovers. (Meow).

With:

". . . according to insiders. . . " and " . . . Sources said this weekend . . . "

- I'm guessing it's with Du Plessey's approval. Otherwise there's some high ranking untrustworthy individuals not in fear of losing their employment walking around earning side money, tipping off the media with hot news.

The ridiculous offer amount cited, is to garner support by enraging shareholders of such a lowball offer. This May, just for a "stake" in Openreach, £20bn was bandied about. Now in August they just don't get a stake in Openreach, but the whole damn thing and BT thrown in for free - for less money!!!

Puleeeze! Pull the other one.

What about Net Debt repayment? Who's going to pay that back? Not as simple as a bridging loan. The Bondsmen and banks would want added fees and renegotiated interest repayment rates.

The Market Cap is £10.1bn
but the Enterprise Value is £29.35bn (that includes the net debt and some bits).

So the opening bid would have to start at 3 times Friday's closing SP - minimum!

The offer would need to start at £3 per Share minimum, and that's getting BT lock stock and barrel for just Friday's closing SP, when balance sheet metrics tells everyone the whole shooting match is severely undervalued.

Otherwise every pro is wasting their time analysing revenue, profits, cash flow etc., as anyone can offer anything they fancy without referring to the balance sheets, trading and profit accounts.

Whatever, the story may be enough to pull the SP back from the edge on Monday.

BWNG

Divis suspended currently and officially for the foreseeable future, because Covid has made the future ahem... unforeseeable.

I'm still bearish for the short term, going into Monday, even if it's an odd bullish day on Monday.

I'm of the opinion that the rejection of the SP by the resistance exerted by the major 200 day average will be felt for some time yet.

Deep apologies. The post below was meant for another stock. Sorry.

I'm still bearish for the short term, going into Monday, even if it's an odd bullish day on Monday.

I'm of the opinion that the rejection of the SP by the resistance exerted by the major 200 day average will be felt for some time yet.

PS. Mentioned resistance in error, when I meant support, somewhere in the middle but all mentions are for supports only.

Kind of pointless talking about breaking up past resistances at this juncture anyway.

Last night I was adamant that 102 would prove too tough a support for the SP to break past, at least by today!

And that was partly because I had the strange result/anomaly of the first and second pivot point supports as both 102. Never seen that before. (One was just over 102 the other just under 102 but I have the spreadsheet rounding off). So that suggested extrenme strength in the support level.

So even offered myself as monkey's uncle if the SP didn't close on 102.
(Hmm, think I rushed shaving this morning by the look of things and I have this strange compulsion to only answer to the name, Caesar :)

So somewhat shocked by the day's close. However, that was last night - without this morning's opening price included in the calcs - and once done, that changed things. Last night I had 102 for the 1st and second supports and 100 for the third.

Updating with this morning's opening and that changed to 103 for the first resistance and 102 for the 2nd, with the third at 100.

So the actual close is still v poor!

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And as said, tonight's close is a real shocker to me.

Just done the calcs for Monday and that's where the foreboding comes in. It's now throwing up 100 as the first support - Blimey!

And should that fall then 99 as the second support with 96 as the third.

With 2 of the supports being below 100, I fear the worst for Monday as the old maxim is never far away when looking at BT's price actions, the one warning of 're-visit an old support once to often and it will finally give way'.

I'm thinking this is now just one too many revisits to the 100 border. The dice are loaded against the SP going into Monday. I hope the SP surprises but not in quite the way it did today.

Safety lies in closing above 102 minimum, which after today, I now think is a forlorn hope.

But do bare in mind this thick body hair I'm suddenly sprouting is getting very itchy; don't have a banana going spare do you?

" WMH"?

WMH - Bah! What possessed you?
Did you never consider GVC? Made an absolute packet out of it. Sold it to take the remaining profits off the table at the beginning of the March crash.

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" . . . so I will be selling at the end of this month."

I think that could turn out to be an astute move IMO, as I wouldn't be surprised to see September as barely above flat, with October and November being lacklustre for LSE.

Am expecting though, a cracking December, so planning to buy in, on or just before Dec 1st, and small tranches between now and December if they happen to be unusual drops of suitable magnitude.

" . . . . Velo your thoughts? "

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Gone midnight and workmen here at the crack of dawn, so tidying up before turning in, but caught your post in time before shut down.

Well, it did go and close below 105. Who let that happen then? Who was asleep on the job?

I mean, you take a day off, and you ask for one thing. Just one little thing only, just the one and . . . :)

- 102, looks immensely strong, seriously strong support tomorrow.

However, I'll say it -
102 minimum close tomorrow, or I'm a monkey's uncle.

" . . . (would appreciate a velo take again) and I still see a huge upside potential here with very little downside risk . . ."

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I concur Stoodio.
Wasn't going to post, as only time I've had free today, is the end of the evening, thought I saw your post in the day, searched, but was just about to give up now, but found it.

As expected a few little pullbacks, and some elevated peaks, so nothing untoward. Long term trends still secure and all pointing to continuance.
Might expect a little downward pressure tomorrow, but that would be going some to occur in a nasty way, so I'm closer to thinking another day closing at around 58 or so, again?

What IS interesting is the price action since early August to now. I wonder if anyone can see it? Just deleted my rambling explanations and instead, will cut to the chase:

I think another 3 days or so (max) of these flat 58/59's or 58/57's and then a big 2p/3p rise all in one day - by the middle of next week latest. There, think of the post space, saved.

Nope! Didn't like that close.

I think down again tomorrow.

The only upside is, if it doesn't do so, then it could be that it closes v close to where it closed tonight
- but otherwise . . . nope - I'm leaning towards lower again - IMO.

" Views anyone? "
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Yes, this stock perfectly compliments the maxim:
Don't bet on a random horse in the Grand National - far better to bet on the bookie.

Well, LSE is that bookie. Better than buying a FTSE index fund.

Have you seen the P/E ratio though? Tsk! The price you pay for success.

Thanks, volcano; thought there'd be loads. Is this where the "smart money" invests?

A long term investor would confirm, from my perusal of the price action over the last 20 years, that apart from stock market crashes, every day/week/month is a "new high" in this stock? : )

Can't believe I've had this on a watchlist for years and done nothing about it. Maybe I suffered from: "Ooh that can't rise any higher?" And failed to bag it at loads of 'cheap' occasions.

This stock appears to have been a better investment than any pension or star fund manager over that time period.

Going to invest here, but going to play silly buggers with cyclical charts for the best month etc., as it just doesn't appear to offer a cheap entrance outside of market crashes.

Wouldn't be surprised if the SP falls for a couple of days, maybe even as far as mid 40's if it's a mind to, (worst case scenario IMO).

On every time period imaginable from short term to long term, the trend lines are all bullish - bar one, the price to the 200 day average. We need it. It has to fall.

At this juncture such is the strength of the bullish trend lines, I fully expect the SP to attempt another assault on breaking above the 200 day trend line. Just can't say when.

The SP is at a foward P/E ratio of a derisory P/E 5.3
The industry average that BWNG inhabits is P/E 14.8

So BWNG is "cheap" to buy.
It is NOT overpriced!
(The SP would need to rise 160p just to be ordinary and average in comparison to its peers within its industry grouping).

For that reason and the strong sentiment behind the bullish trend lines, that has propelled the SP into a too fast ascent (bubble) I have quiet confidence the SP will recommence its ascent after a suitable retrace/pullback period.

Abort mission! Incoming!

- Now hold on there son. What's your casualties?

Heavy sir.

- And the 63rd?

Gone sir, in enemy hands.

- Darnation! Get those casualties to the medics. Tell me son, can BWNG command hold out?

Sir, yes, sir! But the 53rd are first up, right in the enemy's sights.

- You mean we gotta double air cover support or we could lose the 53rd tomorrow?

Sir, yes, sir! Those boys could hold out until air support arrives, but not longer.

- Damn it! Losing the 63rd was bad enough now ah gots to worry about those boys in the 53rd.

(Mutters as he marches away) Will the 53rd hold out on Wednesday until air support arrives?

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Pull up a chair and recap:

Reposted from my Monday post:

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"Meant to add -
For at least the last 3 days, this top rated performance by the SP has in that time, had the unfortunate side effect of pushing the SP way, way over, into overbought territory.

So the SP will likely either retrace somewhat from here, and after perhaps consolidating, launch that big attack on the 200 day ma in later days/weeks.
However, it's possible other forces are at work and the SP could continue as is, for some time with only minor pull backs, but it can't continue any advance with the same ferocity of strength whilst it's so overbought.

So, minor strides forward if it's the latter, or if the former, then a hurtful retrace, hopefully either option only temporary
- but the SP is (unbelievably, but true) - overbought."
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( PS.
OVERBOUGHT =
Buyer exhaustion imminent, meaning a retrace in the SP. Tonight Wednesday, the SP is on the border crossing of coming out of Overbought Condition. Doesn't mean the end of the retrace. First concern is 53p. SP could dip lower than that. Bunch of other supports below that. We'll see. Maybe 53 will support, maybe not, but need to be well out of Overbought Condition before entertaining another attack on the 200 day trend line. )

Also from Monday -
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"That 63p is important, not because of its price - but because it's the current price where the long suffering, gently descending, 200 day average, currently resides at.

I'll say this as a raging certainty:
Fail to break past 63 and then permanently live above it, and this dog of a share is going nowhere in the future - it's that important! "

" Hi Velo. Is the price action today better than you had expected ? A bit of a dead cat bounce !!!! "

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Evening Bommer,

Saw your post earlier but was tied up, so been working my way back.

My answer is both no and yes. But then got a surprise when I sat down to review the presets.

First off - 'no', because I thought it might close something like around the 102 area but I see from the intraday history the SP did visit there, but got rebuffed at that support, and held off from giving way to the SP.

- And by close - 'yes'; because 105 is today's 'indecision' pivot point and that's where it came to rest. Didn't think the SP would even make it back to that point.
So the surprise in the presets was - seeing 105 come up as today's pivot point, whilst my feeling upon first seeing 105, was that it was enough to qualify as a first resistance level.

I felt for sure the SP overall, would close worse than yesterday. However closing on 105 is that indecisive area (today's pivot point) so not a lot to crow about. Indecisive, means it could go either way tomorrow. No certainty. However a lovely looking shape to the candlestick price formation close tonight. It's a candlestick close, that's more than hinting at a bullish day tomorrow. But with the SP closing on neither a bearish support nor a bullish resistance level, I'm more of a 'meh' attitude in outlook.

All in all, these indecisive daily price actions, appear to fit in with the multiple small peaks and troughs since May, It could rise tomorrow, if the candlestick shape proves portentous, and for a few days after, but I wouldn't hold out for a great deal before it then dropped off from that peak back to retracing into a trough.

All trends are still very bearish, hence my "meh" outlook. A single, lonely, bullish candlestick (to the good) is all the take away currency, holders get tonight :)

That 105 close did surprise me, though.

(PS.
Due to the 'meh' performance it just so happens the calcs have regurgitated 105 as tomorrow's pivot point once again. So don't close below it).

BT.

Pivot points, candlesticks, ultra short term trends, but above all, day traders pivot points. Just a hunch.

Anyone on this board who's bought in, above 8,000 ?

Conversely, any long-termers here, who've held say, from the early years after the turn of the millennium?