Member Info for Velo

End of day quick summary:

Well, a welcome chase back up of the SP by the bulls for today's close.
Volume was circa somewhere half of what it was Friday, but the bears are not done yet as the total volume was still slightly above the longer term average, despite being a pale comparison to Friday's volume, and price was still negative to what it opened at, and did also close below Friday's close.
So a no question; a bearish day.

Positives: Price couldn't close beyond the very 1st support, or even on it, and by my reckoning, the bears failed at the first hurdle!
The relative strength index for BT is right back to sitting on top of the fence, not below it.

Negatives - but the SP did finish betwixt the pivot point and the 1st support, so in essence the bears still rule, and haven't thrown in the towel -
And not ready to call it as exiting oversold condition just yet, as the RSi is teasing, so not a definitive exit from oversold condition just yet.

Going into Tuesday it's still bears in control IMO.

Doesn't mean they will automatically end the day in charge, but they go into Tuesday with the ball in their court and still a full threat.

But I do like how the relative strength is not playing to the bears tune :)

"It seems like I could teach this Kondratiev clown a great deal.

Toff "
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If only closed minds came with a closed mouth.

This from the resident angry psycho nut job on here, posting at 16:52pm today, several posts below -

" You’re suffering from
mauvaise foi - the philosophical term used to describe human beings, under pressure from social forces, who adopt false values and disown their innate freedom, and therefore act inauthentically - closely related to the concepts of self-deception and ressentiment. "

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Oh I'm sorry, did my back hurt your knife?

What a mouthful. Did you lift that from Wiki or elsewhere? -

Bad faith (French: mauvaise foi) is a philosophical concept to describe the phenomenon in which human beings, under pressure from social forces, adopt false values and disown their innate freedom, hence acting inauthentically.[1] It is closely related to the concepts of self-deception and ressentiment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_faith_(existentialism)

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Look, I'll admit it - You are the bigger man. There. Peace?

Especially since taking those ***** enlargement pills - now you're twice the Dick you were beforehand

Then you defo don't want to read Kondratiev then Fleccy as it'll just depress you.

I was asking the poster if he studied Kondratiev as he chose him as his moniker. I haven't read his theories in full. What is now is not new but has been before and repeats on endless cycles. Wars etc., ie., there is nothing new under the sun about sums up his work.

I've read the much admired thick War and Peace- like books 'Into the Upwave' by Bob Beckham whose work was based on him.

In the 1920's Kondratiev's fame as an economist was such that Stalin brought him in to advise as he wanted to hear on the likelyhood of the USA's demise as Kondratiev's work was seen in retrospect to predict the 1929 crash era but Kondratiev told him that it is an essential part of democratic democracies survival that their stockmarkets crashed when necessary to rebirth and start over clearing out the deadwood with a mighty bang. On hearing that western democracies ie., the USA would recover from endless economic crashes he sent Kondratiev to a Siberian gulag imprisonment as punishment for suggesting capitalism would survive regular economic meltdowns - where Kondratiev suffered greatly and eventually die there in terrible conditions on Stalin's orders. His work still survives to this day just Google the name. Only know of Kondratiev from other books using his work.

"tooting and doing today"

Tsk! Auto correct LOL!

Tooing and frowing Today!!!

If so, have you any views on the assertion that we are now in the final sixth cycle characterised by the long touted, psychosocial health and biotechnology era, that lasts 60 years commencing in 1990 and includes 2020 "winter" and lasting to 2050 so will bin economies at the drop of a hat on delusional responses to health matters? Followed by World Wars and permanent changes to society? Which accounts for Trump, Brexit and the likes of Hong Kong protestors and the growth of left wing groups we're now seeing gaining power and influence?

@ Kondratiev

- Hi Kondratiev,

With all my tooting and doing today missed catching on to your ID moniker.

Does that mean you are a fan of Long Wave theory? Do you study him?
If so you must be aware of his greatest adherent the much missed now long departed Bob Beckham (got all his huge books).

Or is your ID moniker just by chance?

Long wave theory

"... 2-3% for the next few years, with forecasts for normalised free cash flow also cut 2-3%..."

One quarter, turns in less than desirable cashflow metrics and they write off normalised cashflow for the next couple of years at a stroke? Geez, that's the logic used? One isolated quarter and the next couple of years must take a hit - and by extention sentiment too?
- Think their investment philosophy must be principled upon Never Give A Sucker An Even Break.

With BT's 5 year SP history it seems the safest choice for them, to plump for, career wise.

30.66? That sounds awfully like Friday's close.

I'm using subscription based, live prices charts. Sounds to me like you've been looking at EOD delayed times charts?

30.66?

I make it just under 30 at RSi 29.66.

Setting on default 14.

All depends on your range settings doesn't it?

Only from earlier today, has the SP now (barely) entered a very mild oversold condition.

Most would think after the speed of the gigantic fall last Friday it must be oversold already, but it didn't - it closed sitting on it, a fraction of a fraction above it.

Gut feeling might make you say of course it's oversold - but technically it wasn't - until today. This is Day One of absolute oversold condition.
I too, was gobsmacked it didn't cross over on Friday as it was already lowering - even before the trading day started on Friday!

Doesn't matter anyway, as it means some relief from this current retrace will be approaching and next change is that of entering it's use by date. Any hedge funds algo's will already be aware of it, and would be needlessly throwing funds away if shorting, as it signals they're on their own, with panicky sellers nearly reaching exhaustion point.

Doesn't matter if the oversold is mild or severe - they (mostly) all end the same. The last mild near-oversold condition - well it never crossed into oversold at all, but descended to near it (not as far as today for example) was in the 2nd week of May and was a couple of points away from the oversold border, but when it turned from such a dungeon area the result was the same as always; after flooring intraday at 98 that day (it actually closed several pence higher at 102) it thereafter went on a bull run - all the way to 128-ish.

Some may recall I took advantage of the new trend lines and went long, but having messed up a month or two earlier, I waited and waited for confirmation after confirmation and only then bought. And whilst in profit, I went and doubled my position when at 126 - but by the late afternoon I feared I'd made a bad mistake doubling up as subconsciously I had toyed with selling or part selling the profits.

Within a further 24 hours I realised it was defo a mistake, and foolishly waited days before finally the inevitable and sold for now a smallish £200 loss - but the point is - after just coming near to oversold, just being down there, eventually induced a reversal - and up the price came.

That's the similar condition right now.

It is only fractionally into oversold, which is not even in the same league as any of the others in the past 5 years of oversold conditions in BT, but no matter, it always signals: eventually after the pain comes the relief.

Question is, how long, in and around, this oversold condition that lasts; after watching most of them on here for years, I'd guesstimate only a couple of weeks at most, down to sometimes days. Can last a month now and then. Or like back in May - will it be a quick one and reverse out speedily?

Anyone's guess really but entering oversold always signals approaching exhaustion of the bears, always (well 99% always:)

So days or weeks or a month-ish? No one knows for sure, just a matter of letting the oversold condition mature to exhaustion.

PS. This morning's Opening SP is now included in the calcs, so numbers for today that "may" be pointers for the day are updated as follows
- (Only the first 2 supports have gotten slightly better; rest same as before)

3rd resistance: 126

2nd resistance: 114

First resistance: 106

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First support: 95

2nd support: 91

3ed support: 79

The actual pivot point is remains as 102.
Suggesting if the price can close the day up, at say 103 - then that's a bullish sentiment and some comfort can be taken from it.

Closing up at 99 or 100 just won't cut it to tip the probabilities to the upside. Has to be a minimum of AT LEAST 103 by day's close.

Closing near, on, or above any of the R1, R2, R3 resistance levels and this cr@p from Friday would most probably be over - and it'd be goodbye to ever seeing sub-100 on Tuesday.

PS. Posted before going on about Enterprise value.

Following your argument of the market valuing BT against what a predator might offer.Putting the asset values aside, well for starters they can't just offer the MCap value of the company can they? They have to pick up the Net Debt tab (I make it higher than Q1 at £19b+) and for that you have a metric called Enterprise Value - it sits just below the MCap and it's currently saying the true market cap of BT is actually £29.03bn when you add the cost of the net debt in - that's the algos sayuing that - not my calcs.

So, hmm . . . under £10bn mcap as of Friday . . . so that means the first thing to hit a preditor is THREE TIMES the current SP, so roughly that's £3 per share up front. Then there's the goodwill etc., of some marvelous under valued metrics and BT is undervalued to the indusatry my an almighty degree with the forward PE ratio now sub PE 5 at PE 4.93 - the industry average is PE 12.7 so that means the SP would have to rise to circa £2.50 just to reach parity with the market. Vodafone even with it's debt problems and past half dozen years of producing loss after loss is way, way, ABOVE the industry average PE ratio.

So negotiations could centre on if VOD is worth more than the rabble that make up the industry then surely BT is worth higher than merely the bare industry PE ratio average?

And so the asking price would climb and climb with the predator fighting back citing: You have tuppence ha'peny in assets so not paying above the industry average PE ratio.

Would only take the second predator mentioned to step in for the original to say, okay we'll offer above the industry average - but not as high as Vodafone's PE.

Fleccy @ " They could try, but without the BT board supporting such a low bid, they wouldn't have a chance. If they went for a hostile takeover, the market would start looking at the *** unit valuations *** and the price would be a lot higher than £20 Billion. "
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Been checking through the balance sheet metrics, since Friday, on the whole still screaming "value" yes (nice liquidity still - so debt not affecting that - it only went up approx £200m in Q1 so nowhere near enough an increase to impinge on liquidity) but awaiting to see if further updates to the algos as the Q1 said FCF was negative in the first quarter - yikes! - (but it's not showing up at my end just yet).

Anyway, one that's looking the worse for wear than before, is the -

"% Price to Tangible Book"

- Assets in other words - and all of a sudden it's looking poor in comparison to its industry averages, and the whole market in general. About 50% worse than the industry averages.

Does it matter?

I don't think it's an important metric for BT - seriously.
However here is the definition of PTTB:
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" This ratio is calculated by dividing the latest Price Close by Tangible Book Value per share. This ratio gives an idea of whether an investor is paying too much for what would be left if the company went into liquidation as it represents the hard assets of the company".
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So, even at sub £1 it's saying that's still expensive when valuing the assets only.
Think we've been underestimating how much stuff they've been selling off to raise cash to lower debt. So wouldn't be overly confident of a predator being forced to pay more than they offer, as according to that metric, BT's assets have dwindled alarmingly and thus add to devaluing the company should you come to pricing it up for a company sale.

And if I can see it - any predator can too.

Repeat - considering BT's physical business I don't think it matters a fig! They're doing the right thing - fighting to lower he debt!

But it does matter when you're valuing the assets of a company for a sale of lock, stock and barrel.

PS. Before I forget -

1) All pivot point related price points be they support or resistance are good only until 4:30pm Monday only.
Don't use or refer to them for later in the week.

Should the SP close on one of the price points later in the week then that would be purely incidental. Pivot points are redrawn daily and live and die for one intraday performance day only.

2) However, the "visible" support area of 96 - 92 will stay in perpetuity. Whilst price is above it, it "should" act as support. Should price fall below it, it will reverse polarity and act as resistance against the SP on the way back up.

3) As will the Fibonacci price points.
Unfortunately BT's SP is now so low it's actually long since broken through all meaningful Fibbo retracement levels and is now so low that I've had to step back to 2009 and draw from there, up to the 2015/ early 2016 high.
That categorically doesn't mean it's sub 50p reading is on the cards for tomorrow, but hangs as a long term threat that could trigger for as long as the SP plays silly buggers below £1. Fibbo is saying there's nothing but quicksand from here on in. So, get out of there!

Should the SP rise back above the mid 170's at some future point, then it would fall back within a meaningful retracement level, meaning 177 would be a very strong support area [the 61.8% "golden ratio"]
(in other words 177 was the last meaningful Fibbo support for BT according to my reading of the Fibbo retracement ).

And

4) All IMOnly :)

With Friday's price last seen in the circa 2010 era - a couple of visible supports come out just a smidgen lower than Friday's close at 96 & 92-ish.
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That's the most likely reliable price points IMO, of the worst closes tomorrow - but, but . . .

That's the last of the good news as regards supports - as all trends and indicators are simply full-on bearish for a continuance in this downtrend, with perhaps a possible temporary dead cat bounce if it doesn't, so this post will focus on defence and highlight the worst to try avoid visiting on Monday.

Ran my own pivot points and just checked with the free sites in the USA and we concur, however my spreadsheet allows for slightly more accuracy as there's provision to incorporate the day's (tomorrow) opening into the calcs so will post what I have below - and update the lot after opening tomorrow (but not necessary really as experience shows that it only ever varies the results slightly by a 1p maybe 2p - either way).

Start with what's "possible" if (IF) the market response was just an over reaction, and tries correcting tomorrow, as mechanical pivot resistances to overcome are as follows:

Third resistance: 126

Second resistance: 114

First resistance: 106

If you think the third resistance of the day is just too wild, just re-look at the performance yesterday, but in all cases the upper third resistances/supports of the day only ever trigger on big events, extraordinary trading results, CEO firings etc., of that sort, but that's what the calcs show as a possibility - depending on market reaction after this weekend.

With all indicators bearish, my own opinion is for a very modest bearish continuance of perhaps the visible supports as stated up above closing in the 96-92 area.
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However here are the actual pivot points supports, if it does go in this direction I'm looking if /or how far, the SP travels between each support and not try the much more difficult forecast of plumping for a single price point -

First support: 94
Second support: 90
Third support: 79

The actual pivot point comes out surprisingly at 102. Suggesting if the price rises tomorrow and closes up at say 101 - then that's still bearish and no comfort can be taken from it.

But should the SP break past 102 but only travels say as far as 103, then it's highly probable that the big retrace yesterday, is sated for the moment. So whatever, it's encouraging (however small) if the SP closes proud of the actual pivot point (102).

That's your initial baby-step target for the day - beat 102, no good closing at 101.9

PS. Did a Fibonacci retracement taken from the 2009 crash floor and you just don't want to know the outcome. Let's just say it's below 50p. So took the nearest available low after the big crash (2010) and it came out in the 60's. So no help there.

As always, see what occurs on the day.

" whereas the market has forced whole of BT Group down to a valuation of just over £10 Billion"

- Not even that as of Friday night's close Fleccy, single billions now.
So used to thinking of £20b plus . . . I can hear Barbara Streisand forlornly singing: 'memories'

Yes, I thought I had posted a differing link but it was the same article. Okay there are named names and the words: hostile bid this time. But rather a coincidence don't you think straight, after a massive drop in the SP?

Not a believer in coincidences but am of probabilities. So probable this 'old' story has been freshly resurrected for other reasons - but only if nothing further transpires from it.

Sorry, I mistakenly linked the same as was already posted below. A couple more (Google) saying published 11 hours ago and 2 hours sgo etc.,
- so they're picking up on the Friday report. The difference this time is that actual predators names and their company's names are aired for the first time.

Funny how a not half bad Q1 net profit (IMO) considering it envelopes the initial Covid period is met with extreme above average humungous volume driving the price to extreme depths only to met hours later with news reports reigniting of a 'red flag' news story that attracts speculators to a convenient low entry price on Monday morning. Straight out of the Cramer video video)

Two of them now are determined to bag Openreach - the reports say "rumours" are emerging that they are determined to force a hostile bid if BT refuse to negotiate. BT refused to comment.

There's no smoke without fire. Are there sparks beginning to emit from the smoke?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8583873/STOCK-WATCH-shadowy-billionaire-set-ring-changes-Openreach.html