Member Info for Velo

Thanks Stoodio.
Feel in a happier position now my average begins with the first digit being a "4".

Hope you're keeping well too, in this Covid-laden landscape.

Accepted a top-up of my long awaited 42p this morning (42.7p) and thus brought my average down to 49.1p all-in.

The 200day average is only a penny further below at circa 41p-ish so good reason to think the immediate floor is only a few pence sub that level if the SP is intent on sinking further.

I'm happy with 49p :) And still room to increase my exposure a little more to my preferred average holdings if further retracement is in the cards. However if the SP falls significantly below the 200 day average and remains there for a significant number of weeks/months I will become concerned for the longer term. Can't invest/trade entirely without risk; that's a given :)

" What do people think about guessing the deficit ? "
-------------------------------

Average for last 5 years when the ultra low result of March is removed comes out at £ 7.75bn (but then only 4 years used)

However, it bounces about up & down quite noticeably, from year to year. Never the same 2 years running, but If you include the phenomenally lowest recorded at the year end, then the mean average drops to £6.45bn .

So as the guidance is to expect higher than the year end, I'd guess anywhere north of between that recent £1.1bn deficit but considerably less than £6.45bn

- So literally anything between £2bn to £5bn???

Well, sold and closed out today. Away for over a week from tomorrow and didn't want this rapidly souring 'strategy-play' hanging over me, possibly getting worse. Escaped (yet again) with a small loss of £200+
Pleased I've closed out for hundreds and not my usual thousands when things go against me. So running profit on BT after 5 speedy, in-out trades, over the past year or two, is now down to £500.

Had to devise a new rule so as to claim no gut-feeling instinct involved. And that was - if a running paper loss is incurred and the Ultra short term trend line has turned bearish, I can sell.

So I cleared out 50% early on, and the other half in the afternoon. The short term trend had started kissing the cross over, so decided not to wait until it actually did, and sold the lot. By close there's daylight between the short term trend and the cross, so really I'm letting gut instinct have a say, which leaves me a bit annoyed as the Short term trend is still officially - bullish!

A terrific gap up, soon after the initial purchase made a second tranche irresistible, but nothing is guaranteed and the following day the wider market changed face and I knew I was now on a slippery slope. And so it's ended.
Doesn't mean if you're long and suffering, that I'm suddenly going to spout all bearish, just because this particular strategy hit the 80/20 loss portion of the probabilities. I'll catch the next boat, that's all.

-------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH << But chasing rapidly to join the Ultra s/term trend - not yet bearish; just a glimmer left <<
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= Bearish

Thanks for the feedback.

Not sure I'm any the wiser, but just referring to Openreach's Internal revenue alone, shows this year's is less than last year's in a similar way as the % for the company's group revenue is down over last year.

I find with business accounts, they make them so that multiple interpretations can be made from the same data. Obviously from a company's POV it's best to show them in as legally positive a light as the regulations allow, whereas the service I subscribe to is designed to protect the investor from dubious methodologies.

And they say TA and charting is smoke and mirrors!

Concludes (Part 2 of 2) >>>

OpenReach Revenue:
2019 = £5.075bn
2020 = £5.112bn

So revenue from Openreach is up, right? But BT's overall revenue is down?
And it shows that roughly going on for just under a quarter of BT's revenue is contributed by Openreach to BT's kitty. Now here's where my questions start forming. Had emails ready to send off, but posting here instead.

After my subscription (accountancy grade) package digested the year end figures it was showing Openreach as virtually half that revenue and seriously, seriously, down on the prior year.

Here's what my subscription package revealed -

- For the fiscal year ended 31 March 2020, Openreach segment decreased 54% to £2.36B

What happened to the marvellous £5bn+ in the RNS?
I was already set to complain about an issue over net debt, as I had been posting of expecting a net debt of £19.6bn and they showed it coming through at £19.2bn whilst BT and every single media analyst quoted £17bn as net debt.

This morning I discover £19bn is the true net debt (page 205 in BT's own audited accounts) despite the RNS displaying far less (£17bn) - and in fact BT go on to lower it to £11.3bn in the accounts, but they show all three £19bn, £17bn and £11bn all in the same table - so I can accept differing interpretations. So deleted that email.

But the HUGE fall in Opentreach revenue did not fit in with what was being reported in the media or in the RNS, so trawled through BT's accounts until I found it - figures that matched the true revenue of Openreach and there it was on page 135 of the accounts.

It shows Openreach Revenue for year ending 2020 of £2.753bn (no other tax interpretation just that single figure) and also show that as a DECREASE on the prior year by dropping some £120m down, thus fitting in with all subsidiaries reporting lower revenue this year. Still not 52% down - but BT's own audited accounts show it down on the prior year. Hence my question to you Fleccy, and it's this:

Do you know of any reason why Openreach (using your engineering technical experience) as to why, for the year ending March 2020, Openreach would produce less revenue than the prior year?
- as it's out of kilter with all the media. Don't think there's a media conspiracy, but curious as to why Openreach is producing falling revenue when the media reads as if Openreach is the busiest company around, which was my view but the reported decrease in Openreach revenue shocked me.

-------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= Bearish

(Page 1 of 2)

Fleccy, is there anything in your extensive engineering technical knowledge that could help explain a conundrum I was looking at this morning concerning Openreach. First let's see if we're all on the same page.

Your final para of -
" The negativity toward BT is overplayed and as I've stated many times, BT isn't a revenue growth play, it's a cost cutting play leading to higher net profits and maybe growth down the road on the back of IOT. "

Yes, agreed here to. Don't think anyone would disapprove of those sentiments. Been looking at revenue and breaking it down to see where this year's decline and all the current years to date are originating from. In doing so I uncovered a shock (well a shock to me; maybe not to everyone else) hence the coming question to you. First read on.

It's a given that the jewel in the crown of BT's contributing subsidiaries is Openreach. Or is it EE? (Or maybe 2 jewels in the crown; but overall, most media analysis is positive over Openreach as a significant contributor to BT's books).
In fact last year, Labour based their main political manifesto to wrest power away from the govt by declaring they would nationalise BT just to get their hands on Openreach - and once the blood dripping, beating heart of BT was cut from the deceased body of the company and held aloft in appreciation like some Aztec high priests of lore, the dismembered remains of BT would be thrown back onto the market, unwanted, unloved, to live life as some sort of feral manifestation without a mandate, but free from all political control. That was the deal - to get Openreach under govt control; such was Labour's desire. You could literally here Labour's John McDonnell, salivating the words: "my precious" at the presentation, which I watched live the whole way through.

And just check out the opening para in the 2nd link you provided below:

"Still no sign of a slow down in the Openreach full fibre roll-out due to the pandemic, in fact things seem to be speeding up. This month has a very high total of 132,410 premises found since 12th May 2020. The big jump of an extra 36,000 compared to the previous month is either due to us doing better at catching up to the 2,575,000 Openreach declared in the last batch of financial results or Openreach is continuing to ramp up the amount being built . . . "

No slow down! - Speeding up! - High total! - Big jump! - Continuing to ramp up the amount being built!
The language surrounding analysis of Openreach is unmistakable by journos and analysts - bullish in the extreme, yes?

In the RNS release available on this site ('Final Results' 7th May https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/final-results-3jgusi7uhrur2ra.html ) in the CEO's main statement are revenue figures released for Openreach - his statement mind - not the audited accounts - that show an INCREASE in revenue by Openreach from the prior year as follows:

OpenReach Revenue:
2019 = £5.075bn
2020 = £5.112bn

(Part 2 continues) >

With the passing of trading days and the changing shape of the price action, it was starting to look like the SP condition since late March or early April was actually still in play, as it all started morphing into looking like one extra large, giant-sized, peak and trough, larger than any since the March /April pattern began - if the SP had turned bullish 2 or 3 days ago to complete the pattern.

But it has continued retracing down, so it's not the new-old
- it's morphing into. . . I dunno - something else.

Whatever, It's now definitely in a bearish down trend, though. No doubt about it.

Tried looking for supports but they're wishy-washy circa around the vicinity of the Don himself - The 200 day average - which is sitting in the 41's!

So I expect the SP if it ever descends that far, to react as if it touched an electrified cattle fence when out walking in the countryside - and like a scalded cat bounce off it with some velocity - or I'll eat JD's hat before he even picks it up!

JD's hat now needs more lives than a cat to survive getting through this.

Will his poor hat live to tell the tale?

Me yesterday - " First resistance is only 117 but I fear that's unlikely to see the light of day" - Said with complete authority and total conviction.

- 117 saw the light of day at 10:30am this morning! LOL! :) :) :)

SP peaked at that point (resistance) so see what the afternoon brings - after the US opens.
Futures were up and in blue when I turned in last night by 150 points, so unsurprising for a reasonable opening. Futures now hovering around 500++ points up, so maybe we'll be shaking hands with 117 again after 2:30pm?
- If it holds as it was near 600 points up when I commenced typing this post.

Entered this morning's SP open into the spreadsheet and it slightly lowered the supports worse, so first intraday support is now 111 followed by 109 with 104 remaining as was.

With 117 showing it's face this morning, I better post any resistance levels after 117 - should it be overcome by the SP. Next intraday resistance up is 121 followed by 127.

So, 120's a possibility on the radar today? - Whoa! Let's not get carried away after yesterday.
See? That last semtence was gut feeling talking again.
- And the stock market's favourite pastime is showing you where you can shove gut feelings :)

Whatever, closing the day as a bare minimum at today's pivot point, circa 115 might, just might, be enough to stave off concerns of sub 110 down to the border - for now, at least.

-------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . .= Bearish

Some well thought out observations there, CaptainH.

". . . individual company charts ignore the overall market overlay . . ."

I do have all the major indices on tap so I keep separate tabs on what the markets are doing at any given moment v in relation to my stocks. Most of all, I do take more note of the VIX Volatility Index.
(It shot up dramatically by close yesterday to 40!) an utterly massive one day spike - to almost half way the route to the crash peak rating in the 90's, so indicating that all market prices are dropping fast.

- The corollary of that is to buy when the VIX is high, as it is as of last night's close (low cheap prices) and not hold when the VIX is low (high prices).
The VIX always unnerves me if it's behaving contrary to immediate events as it is the true monitor of the state of all markets, let alone the FTSE in isolation. Globalisation I suppose, as the VIX is derived solely from US market data. So I 'feel' I have that issue somewhat covered on a macro scale.

"Given my greatest fear of investing in BT Group is that perceived future fundamental valuation grounds end up being a value trap, . . ."

A genuine potential fear held by many I'm guessing. Personally I think BT is some considerable distance from being rated a value trap; currently it's rated as a contrarian play but I prefer it's older perception of a deep value stock. But your fear is a legitimate concern as analysts trading forecasts are lining up for this year being one of the worst trading year's by BT, on record.
(BT just might get away with poor results this year under the cover of "It's the pandemic's fault" :)

". . . the 100-110p range. " - as good a view as any. Things a bit brighter this morning; a breather before downward continuance or weight to 110-ish being more telling than 100?

--------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . = Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . .= Bearish <<< New trend change <

Well what a miserable day for BT. Confirmed tonight then. That rally is over .
High 120's was all it ever was - for this occasion.

And the first bullish trend to fold is - the Ultra Short Term Trend - has crossed to the downside - the first swallow?
A Question mark, because some way to go before the Short Term Trend does likewise; it's still bullish.

And now it's looking increasingly likely that the 100 border is the new target.
Was amazed at the supports knocked out of the ring today.
118 and 117 were the first two supports. Felt sure the SP would go no further than those two as the next support at 113 looked a step too far.
But did you see it going into close? 113.9odd then after hours to come back to settle 114 dead on.

Whatever, to demolish 2 intraday supports and visit the third is horrendous when you're long.

What I'm thinking:

Tomorrow's intraday concerns 112, 110 and gulp . . . 104.

Pivot point is 115 so that would be a reasonably good crumb to close on as a bare minimum.
First resistance is only 117 but I fear that's unlikely to see the light of day.

Last week I admitted to trying to be a cross between a ballet dancer and a whippet to survive and avoid losses going in to a big, longer term, 5 year down-trending stock. Looking like I had deep sea divers boots on instead.

--------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . = Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . .= BULLISH

Ultra-short term trend . . .= Bearish >>> New trend change confirmed!

Thanks for the feedback Fleccy, IP3LY & Mr_Rooster. Appreciated

Fleccy @ " It depends how long you're willing to hold and whether you have faith in the company. "

Ahh well there you have me.
A)
I'm not willing to hold indefinitely, if stocks fall below the 200 day moving average in the SP.
Hold if above, sell if below. No exceptions - (when discipline is home) and/or re-buy when back above the 200 day average.
Otherwise with shorter term trends I can be in and out regularly.
I just don't possess that kind of attachment to any stock, and proud of that fact. It's taken me years to achieve that assassin-type of dispassion. I've made tens of thousands on some investments and equally lost huge amounts on others. I view them all equally with the same dispassionate gaze.

and
B) Faith?
I'm not negative about BT's future but have doubts about its SP value (not the company fundamentals values) so long as BT the company remains a political football.

My main interest in BT is hunting for signs of that elusive floor in the SP.
2023 onwards is my latest thinking on that score. Either that or the long term trends turn positive (bullish) beforehand, then it will be a case of buy and lock away in the bottom drawer.
-------------

IP3LY @
" IMO trend graphs etc. does not apply much during these times although nice to know of such information to utilise. "

- I actually think the opposite in these times more than ever, but appreciate that's just my opinion.

" P.S. It’s nice to hear honest reflection feedback on any mistakes as generally your hear of wins and rarely losses/mistakes! Anyway GL and wish you ATB! "

Thanks. Appreciated.
------------

Mr_Rooster @ " Hertz, whiting, CHK, ... file for bankruptcy and their stock rally 200-450% during the “WEEK” not for the day or hours . . . "

Pertinent point. Ran those US companies with my set-up and all of those companies failed the initial buy, 200 day moving average test by being long term under it. So none of them should have been bought by anyone for the long term. Interestingly the Intermediate trend didn't fall for the last minute hike. The short term trend did. None of the long term trends were the slightest bit interested either, in the last minute bubble.

BT's SP is currently below the 200 day average as it has been on the whole, for the past 5 years (apart from 2 short occasions) so in essence no one should be long term in BT just yet IMO - according to the internationally accepted 200 day ma.
I will (hold for the long term) once the SP rises and stays above the 200 day ma average in BT.

--------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH >>> v near to changing trend to bearish

--------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH >>> New trend confirmed! <<<
Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

About an hour after topping-up the other day, I started having doubts, I realised I had topped-up on greed and not calm reason. But was short of time. The relative strength index in BT was now near the top with declining room for much upward manoeuvre - in the short term. But I still went ahead. (Plenty room now, as of tonight)

Also, the morning was already down and looking like a warning - but I was in a hurry as needed up north next week, so chores to get on with. Only had time to occasionally check the phone screen and I soon realised that the SP was flirting dangerously close to lower 120's and worse was now below the day's pivot point of 124!

None of this should matter as I'm following a trend following strategy. Doubts started creeping in that the only flaw in my strategy is that I never know if a new trend will be a brief affair or a major event. (Elliot Waves needed for that). If only very brief, the trend could turn (doing its job and signalling so) but leaving little room to exit with any profit or a small loss - if it was to be a brief uptrend visit to the 120's area only, and thus allowing the longer term 5 year bear trends to re-exert their natural authority.

Today 120 really concerned me - revisiting this soon? And when later after close I saw 119 as the day's low - I nearly had kittens - surely not! It's supposed to now change polarity and act as a support not slice through on a whim. What's going on?

The laws of physics have altered.
The space time continuum will collapse in on itself if 120 disappears under the waves so quickly.
The law and parliament is quite clear on this and states that 120 MUST now act as a support so what the feck was 119 doing as the day's low?!?!!

122 was low enough in my book. However, after today's auctions etc., it closed back off the low, growling menacingly at 120 offering some respite to re-consider events.

And it's this:
1) I topped-up too hastily - pure greed.

2) What does any of the above matter as I'm supposed to be following my beloved Trend Following strategy - get a grip man!

3) As if to confound matters the substantial Intermediate Trend has now turned bullish (see table below) - so 3 trends are now bullish despite the SP falling back to 120. (Candlesticks and some indicators are crying 'bear').

My gut feeling is that this uptrend might be shorter lived, than longer.

My internal discipline tells me I'm a mess. Look at the trends!
Look at the shorter trends! No puny human input required. Buy when it tells you - sell when it tells you - and don't argue! Just follow orders!

And that's my problem - poor discipline!

I have to hold until the trends tell me to sell. Win or lose. It's that simple.
Discipline - which supermarket sells them in bulk packs, the cheapest?
And is there a dentist/ or surgeon (whichever is cheaper) that removes 'gut feelings'?

Doubled my holding just now with another tranche bought this time at 124.8

Brings my position up to more reasonable holding. Still more to buy if desired. Busy for est of day so took 124's whilst it was dropping.

- But also increases my SP base quite high. So defo need the high 120's area to be disposed of soon.

Although IMO the SP remains in a down trend, I would not have been surprised to see a decent rise in the SP today as Friday's close was a candlestick Doji - a sign of sentiment indecision - and as it came at the bottom of a long downtrend ie., that means the price action sentiment is undecided on whether to continue with the current direction.

I find from general experience that more often than not, the indecisive Doji nearly always changes (whether at the top of a trend or the bottom of a trend) whatever the prevailing trend was - to the opposite.

Additionally Doji's don't always kick in the next trading day, but can take a day or two for the indecisive sentiment to galvanise into a decision. So that's one thing; evidence that the SP 'could' turn bullish from tomorrow onwards.

Against that, is the near at hand 2nd Gap-Up 'waiting' to be filled. The SP is near half way through it.

I'd be much more confident for an end to this retrace if that Gap-Up had been closed. It hasn't, so not seeing anything to break the current short term bearish trend.

Except for that skinny little runt of a Doji on Friday. He shouldn't have been there on Friday. But he was. Will he be a dud, or an omen? Tuesday's outcome should decide matters.

sirow08 - Now that's a warning sign to me when other posters bring up the word charts - I do genuinely try to tone down any reference to chart talk as in general, this being a predominately fundamentals site it can wind up other posters; but as seen, I slip up now and then. Although I quite happily switch too and fro from fundamentals to charts at will. I see no need to separate the two. Both are aides.

My first reaction upon you mentioning: "Inverse head and should (bull signal)" was - Is there, where?
And that's because I've drilled down to what works for my temperament, my character and what I'm more at ease with. And that means MA trend lines, oversolds/overboughts, Gap-up's/down's, flat bases, several indicators & oscillators, including candlesticks and that's about it. Less is more kind of thing.

Now you've mentioned an Inverse Head & Shoulders, I suppose you mean the one formed from circa mid April to tonight, yes? If so, now I can see it, with the head forming that 99/100 low?

Generally, I don't go looking for them, nor am I so attracted to their charms that they stand out to me. It goes back to concentrating on what suits each of our characters and temperament.

I'm not particularly over impressed with resistances in the 130's and what there is, appear wishy washy to me - although saying that, tomorrow's intraday 'mechanical' calculated pivot point resistances show EmmaJanes 130 and your 134 area (close enough to your 133) as the initial resistance levels to overcome tomorrow. I usually prefer my support and resistances from naked observation viewed from the left of the screen price action and read across to current time periods; usually works for me (the pivots are spreadsheet calculated for intraday use only).

In essence I find the trend lines pick up everything by all disciplines. Tomorrow is still in a bullish uptrend, so if 10 people each said they were expecting resistance at each digit from 130 to 139 I would find no need to react as the trend lines indicate the SP is likely going north whatever makes it pause, until some future resistance somewhere above proves to be the one resistance too far, and the uptrend peters out.

Overall nothing in the 130's over-concerns me like the 200 day ma does, which is currently at circa 158 (and falling) - that's my main over riding concern.

Interestingly there's an old Gap-Down to be filled higher up at roughly mid 160's to mid 170's - if ever the SP fights its way past the 200-day ma - but that's well into the future - if the uptrend survives that long.

--------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish

Intermediate trend . . . . . . = (Kissing only)

Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

Only now after a bit of supper have I really looked closely at the day's close, even though it's been a stonking good day. And what a giant of a bullish candlestick close!

And like Friday's superb close (sunny uplands post) this close too, is promising the moon and more. But those are predictive candlesticks hence my adding 'make of that what you will' suffix :)

One always thinks when a long term, down trending, stock comences on a bullish uptrend -
Is this the start of the big change to fair value recognition, or yet another of those countless suckers rally?

After all, it's said that a10,000 mile journey starts with a single step.
And here we are after only barely 3 or 4 single steps.

Busy tomorrow but intend doubling my stake as my first tranche was only supposed to be the first safety taster. Doubling it still doesn't bring me up to my preferred investment level but steady as she goes and all that. Ready to reverse out at the drop of a hat - if ordered to.

Also to paraphrase:
I may not make it to the promised land with you, as I intend selling if/once the trend terminates and/or it simply reverses trend.

- But not if it is the actual bona fide 10,000 mile journey and the medium and longer term trends start falling from the grip of the Death Star.

Then I will hold and hold like a Fleccy :)

Lot of unexplained increases in some 'dead' stocks. Have to be aware whether or not it's just some sort of a temporary 'fashion' thing.

Momentum/ trends reflect all of what you say, Fleccy. But they're lagging indicators and operate on Newton's principle of:

- A body in motion stays in motion unless an equal or greater force is met.

And therefore the danger of trend followers is to believe that a trend once established will continue in the direction as it currently is.

Hence my attempt at some sort of safety by breaking trends into smaller and smaller trends to get the first heads-up alerts for any change in trend direction.

In essence they can force you to trade rather than invest, but that's where the longer term trend lines step in by ignoring the noise of short term trend lines:

Above the 200 day ma? - Buy or keep ho;ding.
Below the 200 day ma? - Sell.

I don't see any conflict with any of your scenarios and any of them showing up in the shorter momentum trend lines, and if they're strong enough going on to become the law, and evolve into the longer term trend lines - eventually

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish

Intermediate trend . . . . . . = (Kissing only)

Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH

"Thoughts about 130? Given the recent boom it's probably going to go easier than the 120 deadlock right? "

-----------------
Wouldn't use the word easier, but I don't see anything major around 130.
Posted back at the beginning of June, that IMO the next area of resistance to be fought over might be the high 120's (should 120 get taken down; which it has) -

(120 should now reverse polarity and become an area of support, if the SP turns and decides on looking down)

One major concern is the all powerful 200 day moving average which is descending all the time at a slow, slow, glacial speed, but currently at 158 and looking to drop down the 150 scale. So that's a main concern.

Wherever the 200 day average is (should the SP eventually reach that level) it will be a battle royale to overcome. If a strong bullish uptrend were to end it would most likely as not be that 200 day average area - but several resistance stop-overs to defeat before that even becomes a possibility, the next up being approx where the SP is now - the high end 120's, so I fear the 127-ish+ area more than 130.

But no one knows for sure of course, so we'll see :)

- That pattern that gave me the collywobbles the other day is breaking up, as this high, breaks that pattern.

---------------------------------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend . = Bearish!
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trends . . . . . = Bearish

Intermediate trend . . . . . . = (Kissing only)

Short term trends . . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Ultra-short term trends . . . = BULLISH