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(Bugger! Will have to be page 1 of 2 :)

So, tomorrow's big reveal. No good relying on Jansen's lead for what to expect - just look at what he forecast at Q3 for Q4 - and what actually transpired in the finals! (I may come back to that in a future separate post).

Like most of this July I was also away when the finals were announced and time to hand to read posts only, but had a venomous post "in me 'ead", but decided against posting upon my return and felt Fleccy's summing up at the time of "shocking" was a more civilised response - but I still bristle at Jansen's incompetence surrounding his totally unwarranted so-called 'forecast" for Q4 which was nothing more - nothing more - than a patronising, parental pacifier to misdirect the critics and was highly questionable on a professional level. Holders deserved far better! And don't lay the blame on Covid!

The only 'guidance' - the ONLY GUIDANCE, on what to expect is not coming from the company via RNS's aka Jansen, but from the broker's analysts forecasts.
Whilst oop north I noticed yet another update, dated 17th July. It was mostly unchanged from previously and only single millions adjustments and not hundreds. So virtually no change from earlier guidance. (Already, been the odd media report basing their assumptions on that latest update). So let's start there and from that, what to expect tomorrow and start with my favourite - the Net Profit.

Mean Net Profit is forecast for Q1 to come in at £301m
And Median Net Profit forecast is for £320m.

So taking a liberty to arrive at a handy do-it-all figure I'll just average the two and say the market expects circa £310m-ish for Net Profit tomorrow.

£310m Net Profit? - How good or bad is that?
Well just compare it to last years actual Q1 which was a very nice £505m!

(However all you'll hear tomorrow is pre-tax profit which is not what we PI's should focus on, but that's what the media will highlight for sure).

£300m+odd Net Profit? Sheesh! Geezus! That's the worst, lowest, expectation in living memory!

And in my opinion it will be the lowest of the 4 quarters - has to be, as otherwise even the lowly full year forecast won't be met if the other qaurters produce similar, so my belief is that Q2, Q3 & Q4 will all be set higher.

So BT, just don't, just don't even dare to come in, under it - just don't!

Revenue will be down too (as it has been for several years now) and the market will be looking for circa about £5.171bn.

The only way out of this is for BT to surprise all the know-it all's and in actuality come in higher than those two metrics. (It did that with Q1 Net Profit last year coming in with £505m whilst the consensus was that BT would struggle around £485m-ish :)

If anyone wants the pre-tax profits forecast here's the link as I'd much prefer to judge on the day. One other thing - the

( Continues ) > > >

Hi Stoodio - Well you can certainly tell price ran freer once it humped over the 200 day average :)

Better still, all indicators have signalled they're now initially embracing a bullish outlook.

With Relative Strength now motoring dramatically to just over the midway 'healthy' line and into bull territory @ circa RSi53! leaving the danger of a looming oversold territory like as if it was a million miles away.

Checked back 5 years and more back to listing, and a high percentage of times that the Relative Strength for SLP has often as not, travelled on to overbought condition sometimes smartly, but mostly within 2 months or so.

Depending on how high the SP rises I intend a little trade if/should it reach that overbought level. However overbought condition is not on the cards at all in any way shape or form - just sayin' about previous historic behaviour after Oversold vicinity - although the SP did not cross over that threshold, it was just short of a near pin-pricking of it.

Only noticed tonight there was a GapDown on Feb 28th from 58p the night before, down to opening at 48p the next morning. What was all that about?

So although a 10p drop overnight, the next 3 days partially closed some of it, rising back up to 56p whereafter, the portentous Gap Down curse spilled over into the worldwide crash that followed on, making matters worse.

Nonetheless, that means there still remains an unfilled gap to be filled from 56p to 58p, so anyone who's thinking this bull run is good enough for at least 58p has my concurrence on that.

If nothing else, if not this run, then I feel 56 to 58 will turn up at some point in future proceedings. (Often when gaps get closed the SP goes steaming past, even further).

My daily existence revolves around the short term trend. All my troubles and mistakes have all 100% come from ignoring it, or foolishly predicting it's next move based on prior behahiours; so with that in mind all I'll say is that the short term trend has yet to join the party and is still bearish, but to me it is starting to flex and bend in the right direction.

I have made unbreakable discipline resolutions since the March crash - and that is; I ignore the short term trend at my own peril
- so until it actually confirms and crosses to the upside, I remain cautious but v optimistic.

One other thing. Volume was unaccountably below the long term average today. Little volume yet a big uncharacteristic single day move in the SP.

Might just be one of those things but best to stay alert on big SP movements on little to low volume moves. Accumulation/distribution metric is having none of it though, and is strongly bullish and well into accumulation mode. Just wish the recorded volume was backing it up. Probably nothing, but that's all for negatives.

--------------------------------------

State of trends to follow next > > >

The fastest short term trend line has confirmed and turned bullish tonight (as you can see by the closing price) and other indicators are now lifting their heads in readiness, anticipating them pointing northwards. A positive!

However, earlier today when the SP was 42-odd it still represented a half and half position over the 200 day average, with the SP starting the day below it and I was hoping perhaps closing in the 42's above it - leading me to believe that tomorrow, Friday it could open and close cleanly above the 200 day average, and thus give credence to a bigger push northwards.

Still on for that, but from the slightly worse starting point of kicking off from below the 200 day average. Thus delaying a total clear leg up, and over it.

I'm not in the least surprised the SP closed back ever so slightly below the 200 day average, as it is a main border - the most serious and most important of the long term trend lines, and to break and hold consistently above, calls for nothing short of stellar performance so resting just below or just above or around it is .... bog standard progress in any stock! Only the best of the best can manage to live above it consistently. It's a tough call for any stock. (The FANGS have being doing it for the past decade!)

Tonight it's almost there, and closed to the underside just 'kissing' the 200 day average.

I want to see it left behind in the rear view mirror.

Here's how I see things as they stand tonight:

SLP currently -
--------------------------------------
Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish, Mildly, mildly [kissing] (right up close on the underside of the border; so okay really).
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Neutral
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

So early days in the recovery, and some way to go before a full house.

Looking good to fulfil that expectation though. As long as the long term trends are bullish there's little to worry about, and the sole reason I was confident in topping-up the other day.

" Or fallen too fast & will test new low's? "
-------------------

I posted (single post) previously of fancying 360/370 but now leaning towards 360.

But if that fails then 310-ish is in the frame (IMO).

And should the worst nightmares of HK's posts materialise then I can believe in any calculations around 250 - which if it did reach that level would involve massive presence retractions, and serious media talk abounding of who will likely bid for the rump of the company - by then.

Made quite a tidy sum in divis over the years in HSBA but became perturbed how the SP would not grow and suffer serious retraces. Finally did a full examination to find future top-up points to add to my holding, and became despondent on how I'd allowed dividends to suspend by critical faculties and was shocked that over 20 years, the price action showed a long term decline in the SP. Not quite lower highs each time (nearly, almost) but more like lower lows each time.

Determined right there and then, I'd sell on the next peak (it peaks on a regular basis, years apart for the major ones).

Think I bought in 2015 or Jan 2016 latest @ circa 420's (got it in my mind it was 370-odd) and sold out, relieved, when it began climbing back up at 650 or so - as was annoyed that I'd let £7 float by whilst asleep on the divi seductress, so got the best price I could during 2019. As the SP fell rather alarmingly directly after I sold at circa 650's (might have even been a little lower) I felt validated and put HSBA on a watchlist, as didn't want to see it rocket like other stocks I've sold in the past - but got this one right :)

So all in all, a nice profit allround. But a close run thing at the end.

My only interest now, is if every last person becomes so despondent and general consensus writes HSBA off as a lost cause then that would be the potential buy signal.

So will see if a change in the trend lines below here at 360 (not buying/gambling on 360 on its own) and if not it might be a much longer time before the final floor appears as I suspect it could fool us all and drop over the next 2 years off and on, until that 310 or 250 came on centre stage. (Worst case scenarios)

First up, for consideration IMO is 360 as there will be endless false positive rallies before deep lower SP's appear IMO.

Not bothered if it rallies dramatically from here (a possibility) leaving me at the alter, it's not a must-buy for me - but it has had a 20 year history of huge peaks before dropping back again.

So a trading challenge/puzzle rather than an investment choice IMO.

(Concludes Part 3 of 3) -

. . . Together the two men looked at the giant cash pile salted away by their predecessor – and set about spending it, and then some.

They sold the old businesses and bought shiny new ones; they flogged off dowdy and snapped up exciting. In just one financial year, 1999-2000, they bought no fewer than 15 companies, from America to Australia. Suddenly, GEC – or Marconi, as the rump was rebranded – was beloved by the bankers, who marvelled at the commissions coming their way, and the reporters, who had headlines to write.
Then came the dotcom bust, and the new purchases went south. A company that had been trading at £12.50 a share was now worth only four pence a pop. IN THE MID-2000s, MARCONI'S MOST VITAL CLIENT, BT, PASSED IT OVER FOR A CONTRACT THAT WENT INSTEAD TO … HUAWEI. Weinstock didn’t live to see the death of his beloved firm but among his last reported remarks was: “I’d like to string [Simpson and Mayo] up from a high tree and let them swing there for a long time.”

This is not a story about genius versus idiocy, let alone good against evil.

Weinstock was not quite as dull as made out, nor did he avoid all errors. But it is one of the most important episodes in recent British history – because it highlights the clash between two business cultures. On the one hand is Weinstock, building an institution over decades; on the other is the frenetic wheeler-dealing of Simpson and Mayo, mesmerised by quarterly figures and handing shareholders a fast buck. The road GEC took is the one also taken by ICI and other household names. It is also the one opted for by Britain as a whole, whose political class decided it cared neither who owned our industrial giants or venerable banks or Fleet Street newspapers, nor what they did with them. That is why our capitalism is today dominated by unsavoury, get-rich-quick merchants in the Philip Green mould.

Firms such as GEC and ICI used to invest heavily in research and development, notes Sheffield University’s pro-vice-chancellor for innovation, Richard Jones. Now the UK has been overtaken in R&D by all major western competitors. Even China, a vastly poorer economy in terms of GDP per capita, is more research-intensive than the UK.

Now Britons laud businessmen such as James Dyson who make most of their stuff in Asia. As a result, we rely on the rest of the world to come here and buy our assets. And even on something as relatively simple as telecoms equipment, we can’t help but be pulled into other countries’ strategic battles.

Ends.

(Continues Part 2 of 3) -

. . . Well, the answer is that the UK did have one. It was one of the largest and most famous industrial companies in the world. And it was finally killed off within the lifetime of every person reading this article, just over a decade ago. It was called the General Electric Company, or GEC, and the story of how it came to die explains and illuminates much of the mess the country is in today.

At its height, in the early 80s, GEC was not a company at all. It was an empire comprising around 180 different firms and employing about 250,000 people. It built everything from x-ray machines to ships, and it was huge in telecoms and defence electronics. At the helm was Arnold Weinstock, who took the reins in 1963 and spent the next three decades building it into a colossus, securing his place as postwar Britain’s most renowned industrialist.

The son of Jewish Polish immigrants, Weinstock never quite slotted into his role in the British establishment. He was known to be fanatical about cost-cutting, terrible at managing people, and only really lit up by breeding racehorses and visiting Milan’s La Scala opera house. Journalists visiting his Mayfair headquarters found the carpet threadbare and the paint peeling off the walls. A correspondent for the Economist more used to convivial three-bottle lunches with captains of industry came away complaining that GEC’s guests “have never been known to receive so much as a glass of water”.

That Economist profile was headlined Lord of Dullest Virtue, which sums up how both boss and business were seen: steadily profitable yet cautious and utterly unfashionable in the Britain of the 80s, which fancied a turbocharge. Weinstock went unloved by Margaret Thatcher, who preferred the corporate-raiding asset-stripper James Hanson (or Lord Moneybags, as he was dubbed). The post-Big Bang City bankers glanced at GEC’s vast spread of unglamorous businesses, out of step in an era of specialisation, and its shy boss better suited to a Rhineland boardroom – and buried both in plump-vowelled disdain.

Perhaps the pinstriped jeering got to Weinstock. Even as he protested “we’re not a company to render excitement”, he too began indulging in the 1980s business culture of “if it moves, buy it”. Between 1988 and 1998, academics found that GEC did no fewer than 79 “major restructuring events”: buying or selling units, or setting up joint ventures. But it was after Weinstock stepped down in 1996 that all hell broke loose. His replacement was an accountant, George Simpson, who had made his name, as the Guardian sniffed, “selling Rover to the Germans”. The new finance director, John Mayo, came from the merchant-banking world detested by Weinstock. Together the two men looked at the giant cash pile salted away by their predecessor – and set about spending it, and then some.

(Part 3 of 3 follows) > > >

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