Member Info for Velo

Condrums indeed.

I have a ton of data and acadmics research papers on how to handle Company profit warnings (No:1 = sell on the day) and a 20% drop on the first day in the SP is the minimum you see on such issue of warnings.

So what the hell is the SP doing, dropping by that much as if a profit warning had been issued - on a day of perhaps pound for pound one of the best trading results to come out of the market during the Covid period?

I'll never get my head around AIM stocks.

At this morning's unwarranted lows, thought I'd look for any negatives I've missed in the balance sheet, but couldn't come up with anything. In fact things look so startlingly good a little algo metric called the: "Cooking The Books" metric is v suspicious and has registered SLP as a prime candidate for shorting and has had it listed in their 'cooking the books' screen since the middle of August!

- Whatever.

More concerning is the market's fears over SLP. The forward P/E ratio I'm now seeing as P/E 3.72 !

Read an article somewhere that suggested stocks around P/E 7 are value stocks, but to avoid stocks with PE ratios of circa P/E 5 or lower as it shows market concerns.

At a forward P/E ratio of 3.72 the SP needs to at least double from here to be more in line with the industry average medians, and in all probability deserves a premium rating much higher - just what is it, that the market fears and refrains from valuing SLP more reasonably?

It's had 5 or 6 years to be reassured with excellent results followed by excellent results. Yes, the SP has increased in that time, but is still way below comparative middle of the road competitors.

SLP you'd think, being valued at least be in line with the industry average is more than warranted and that is currently P/E 8.71 (which is alreasdy low) and as said, is over double what the market currently rates SLP's worth.

Have you glanced at the volume so far this morning? Absolutely Mega!

Not even mid day and yet the volume is already triple the 20 day average volume! Could end the day in one of the top 3 or 4 positions over the past 5 years.
Just glancing by eye, not actually taken any readings, just looking at the pictoral bars.

If a price unavailable this morning for buying at ultra lows, but no problem entering a sell for a reasonable amount - and they offered you a price, then that's the very definition of a shakeout. They'll buy from you but wouldn't sell to you.

Still reeling from seeing 52 on screen. (Tell me you didn't question the meaning of life upon seeing 52 after excellent results, I did :)

Have a forward substantial 4 month buying plan all plotted out - so 52 would have fitted; so somewhat relieved to read posts of no price offered by MM's down there anyway

Ah Versarien, I know it well. The Graphene share :)

£56k? A bit out of my league for a single investment despite a current 6 figure total for all portfolios.

Never bought any VRS, indecision being one of my weaknesses in investing too.

I know it well because of monitoring it by trend lines. Could ahem... "relatively easily" see when it was about to change trend dramatically - and did absolutely nothing about it.

Kept on monitoring it whilst muttering under my breath easy-does-it and all going accordingly - but never moved a muscle to go long or short as required.

Sat and missed out on circa 69 up to 140's (The best run, I think).

With the gift of hindsight, it actually lost the case for long term investment from early 2019 to date. Lots of peaks and troughs for precise action this year if employing a swing trading strategy, but overall to date, since early 2019 a default long term short position would have been beneficial as a last straw strategy.

It's in the 40's these days. Such fun!

Thanks for expanding on your evaluation of AVCT Wisheyebortum. Thought you might have had a holding in NCYT too.

I'm always interested in hearing more on the thinking by investors who've been fortunate to invest in big winners, long before the herd arrives.

Just shows, you often have to invest in right old dogs before they turn into princesses.

And still to this day AVCT produces no net profit, never has, but loss after loss, and more losses forecast into the next future two years, to boot!

So in this case, once again, classic fundamentals and TA, would have been of no use whatsoever, in any way, shape or form. You had to get in when it was shunned as a 'sensible' buy.

And again, maybe a deep understanding of a company, aka the 'Zulu Principle' (Jim Slater) would be the closest fit to selecting such stocks but even today AVCT would fail that particular test. So still no easy answer.

I've had countless double-bubblers, and quadruple-bubblers, but never by design and never a 10-bagger.

Well, it wasn't to be.
Would have placed the SP in the perfect sniper's nest to close on 59 in readiness next Monday for a nice, relatively straight forward ambush of getting the scalp of the 200 day average in it's pouch.

On the other hand it does give the SP time to lower the decile in the relative strength to put some of the upside in reserve for that assault - whenever it does make its move.

It's now a full rejection by the 200 day average, made worse by a certain poster placing a curse on the SP!

I did post of the SP almost certainly visiting the 40's - and that came true in the last 2 days of the pullback by retracing intraday to 49p and as low as 48p on the day before the big bullish, move out of the retrace.
I accept the SP did not close in the 40's but it's no good trying to convince oneself the SP never went walkabout by actually intradaying into the 40's on two separate days - because it did.

But the poster who was morbidly against any retrace whatsoever jumped the gun by announcing triumphantly:

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"So much for "almost certainly" heading for the 40s. Never closed below 50, and probably never will."
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That's the curse - right there!
Never, ever - absolutely never, state categorically, that the SP of your favourite stock "never will" sink to a low price that offends your sensibilities.
I now give the SP 2 months to break that curse. In my experience once you say the SP 'never will' fall so low - it usually does!

So, I give it 2 months only, to transpire - and then release the SP from the curse if it holds off from that area in that timespan. If it does sink that low then there's only one person to hold accountable - the one who uttered the curse!

Didn't the SP actually open at circa 50p.odd two or three days ago, mid week? So already that curse has come back close enough to haunt the curser :)

" Plenty of what but no why in all of that ".
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Yes, deliberate OldH
:)

Did a lot of spreadsheet work last night so was winding down, and lazily didn't want to explain my findings.

Also, my posts can tend to run on . . . and on . . . and . . .

- You'd thank me for not explaining, if I explained :)

" Hi Velo!
Puzzled by your post. You're not waiting for the final results before making your mind up about the next three months?!? "

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Hi TigerByTheTail,
There's a single line before the final para in my post that offers a way for me to change my mind at the last minute if the facts change substantially, as not buying in Sept itself.

The results are pretty much expected to shine as they always do, and the market has more or less always reacted the same on each occasion over the last successive 5 years or so, and that is by most selling on the news and the SP pulling back after the finals are published, so the future of the SP is pretty much mapped out - IMO only.

I LOLoud when you added:
" May even stick around after a bit of research. "
As I initially thought - Uh hu, a high risking, a shoot first, ask questions later, operator :)

But was disabused of that notion when I discovered you've held AVCT since 2009!

Can't envisage any typical investor hanging on throughout the long years of non-action, especially the last 5 full years of a steady, non-stop, downtrending retrace - until Covid that is!

You do admit to having a personal relationship with one of the BOD so that perhaps offers an explanation. Regardless, well done you on making a packet and a half with AVCT.

Care to elaborate on what must be the longest holder in AVCT, literally anywhere? Or do you prefer to not divulge?

Set up nicely for the last day of the week, tomorrow.

If it's up for it, I can certainly entertain the thought of the SP closing higher to end the week on a high note. FTSE futures are currently bearish as I type, so should that hold overnight then even 59 would be a push to close on - but 59 is on the cards as an intraday resistance price to overcome tomorrow.

Bommer @
" Velo. With your TA knowledge. Why don't you trade the FTSE ? "

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I day trade only the DOW and to lower the blood pressure - the much easier Nasdaq100. Those two only, not the FTSE.

My problem is the lack of courage. Or rather the overwhelming desire to survive. I suppose a lower, £1 a point stake, would solve my issues.

This afternoon went short on the DOW but chickened out for a paltry, barely triple figure profit. Once out, I knew I should have let it run, but chickened out and could see a couple of grand profit would have been mine for the taking had I left it. Knew it as I closed.

Same story all the time. Just haven't got the 'gambler' in my make up. I'm working on it though :)

Well, pleased to post I now have my top-up purchasing plan for SLP finalised for Sept through to Dec 31st in place.

I regard the Sept-Dec months for SLP as the 'kipper season', ie., as flat as ...
and expecting a close by 31st Dec to reveal much the same as the close at the end of August, ie., circling back to 59p or fractionally less.

This coming 4 month period is my leisurely choice for topping-up, and thus going in gangbusters, in comparison to my presently modest holding, and thus will become a major holding.

Was prepared to top-up in each of those 4 months, but spent this evening coming to the conclusion that the second half of October offers the best opportunities, and best purchasing period for top-up's IMO (Quite prepared to get this 100% wrong and pay more than today's prices - because it's Jan/Feb that are now the more important months ie., need to be loaded up by Dec 31st to enjoy seriously significant gains in those two months; that will be similar to July and August's gains IMO).

So, no topping up in September, but yes, from October onwards.

In other words, I've already written off Sept to December month ends, for any serious gains in the SP, despite quite a variance from temporary highs to lows along the way; overall I'm not expecting anything great in this coming period - unless a huge divi is offered in the finals and thus renders this post redundant, by changing the landscape.

" IC are probably worse than tea leaves "

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On that point, well yes, most would agree with that - but was highlighting them as representative (of the UK media at least) of a cumulative and growing consensus amongst the various articles of them mostly opining that they believe a bid will fail. Not seeing any articles that are supportive of a bid; a first in 5 years for BT - financial media support!

Yes, I too silently went Weeeeeee, at snatched intervals throughout the day.

Almost posted late last night of expecting 66 to be the first intraday resistance to overcome, but thought no, don't be silly; unlikely!

So after today, I was expecting a greater intraday resistance than what's showing up as tomorrow's first intraday resistance to overcome - 67.

But that is what I'm seeing tonight, so I'll be happy enough with that as a close tomorrow.
Whatever, hey sera sera, and all that

Well, what a shocker - (to the good).
All indications after the resultant close on Tuesday evening were of more bearish performance from the SP to follow on Wednesday.

All indicators had the same face, this -
:(
:(
:(

And yet the SP fought back valiantly!

Dare I say it, lest I hex the SP?
Okay I'll whisper it: Is it going to be circa £1 that truly is the floor? Or is the market just limbering up for the main act?

Whatever, gone is my previous post of confidently posting of sub-100 close for today (Wednesday).

The SP could now start to surprise a little to the upside. Lots of articles floating around opining that there is interest in a bid but most saying any bid would fail to manage BT, and would descend into break-up and asset stripping sales.
None (like the IC) appear to support any take over bids to succeed with BT. Maybe that was the market's mood too, and responsible for some holders withdrawing from holding BT?

And the subsequent refusal by the SP to succumb on Wednesday?

Summaries like the current IC mag, that virtually paraphrases one of Fleccy's sentences by closing with:

'BT is one for the patient investor who sees long term value. Hold.'

Is that a first in from IC - a Hold rating for BT?

Whatever, if any good is to come from Wednesday's death-defying 101 finish, then I'd like to see a minimum close of 103 tomorrow (Thursday) to confirm a change in sentiment.

Terrible performance today. Ominous.
Will be surprised if the SP doesn’t close sub-100 tomorrow (Wednesday).

Without seeing tomorrow’s opening price, tonight my main concern is 97p.

The SP can close at 99/98 and IMO, still a slim chance of recovery on Thursday.

But closing on 97 and it’s pick a number below 100 for the rest of the week.

All futures in blue tonight, right now. Could catch a break tomorrow and encourage bargain hunters.

" Any final thoughts before Tuesday? :) "

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- Yes, several, but sorry to say, I'm tied up.

As of last Wed morning, I’m now 150 miles away from home and won’t be able to post for most of next week, as only free v late at night, during this time.

Probably, the results will be published before I'm back.

Quick correction:
" Conicidentally, and most unexpected for Tuesday, 51 has popped up yet again..."

Typo!

Meant of course Wednesday!

Hi NigeCo,

Heallywood, responded in my absence and very accurately and succinctly, summed up my position, and investing outlook, in one sentence.

No, not currently holding stock in BT. To date, in a kind of ‘dancing on the head of a sharp pin’ way, I’ve been in and out of BT, 5 times.

Although my running balance shows I’m in profit, such as it is, it is now too small (after the last couple of trades) other than to verify that after 5 trades, I’m not in a loss position.

I am at heart a trend follower, so therefore can not go long in any stock whilst the prevailing long term trend is bearish. And absolutely can not, will not, invest in any stock where its SP is below the 200 day average. However, I’ve jumped in when some, but not all, bullish rallies have shown up.

There is BT the company and BT the SP - they are foreigners to each other. I like BT the Company.

I’m always checking for the trends with BT. Always.
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I’m currently 150 miles away from home and won’t be able to post for least the next week & half, even if I wanted to, as only free v late at night during that time – Hence short posts :) :)

Ts182 @
“I appreciate your input, please keep on posting here after all that's the whole point in the boards. . . “
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Thank you for the kind words Ts182. Appreciated.

- Although, as of this morning I’m now 150 miles away from home and won’t be able to post for least the next week & half, even if I wanted to, as only free v late at night during that time.