Member Info for Velo

Big, big, day for the SP tomorrow.

Tonight the upper wick, the intra day high, is kissing the non-stop dropping 200 day trend line.

It's important that the SP bags it. Tonight the SP is like a rare butterfly just gently kissing the 200 day trend. So never been better in like ooh since a million years BC since it was last above the 200 day average. Which means that when you come downstairs tomorrow, you must have Bjork's song playing as you approach your computer and that is:

It's oh so quiet
Shh shh
It's oh so still
Shh shh
You're all alone
Shh shh

Don't be noisy at 8am. Sneak up quietly on the rare butterfly and when the 200 day is content whip out the giant butterfly net as Bjork launches into the loud and wake up bit and bang the 200 day in your net.

And once the 200 day is fully breached then a confirmation day is needed then - after which the SP starts writing a new story.

Until then it's:

It's oh so quiet
Shh shh
It's oh so still
Shh shh
You're all alone
Shh shh
Until! -

Another belting day then! How beltin'?
Well, the SP's only gone and bagged today's 2nd intraday resistance level! 70p!

Extraordinary.
Seriously - Can this level of daily success continue without just one day of a pullback?

On the one hand, all indicators are bullish, but on the other that's FIVE STRAIGHT BLUE BULLISH DAYS in a row , consecutively.
Checked back and only the whole of February dwarfs that. I have personally sat and watched one or two stocks knock off 13 straight days of gains and others the same amount 13 straight days of pullbacks - and those were rare events!

5 or 6 days straight bullish days does seem to be SLP's maximum recent bias.

- SOooooooooo...... do you think tomorrow might start to resemble a more modest performance and some sort of consolidation? Relative strength is heating up, however that's just me as nothing is signalling to beware
- but you tell me, what do you see in SLP's recent history this year of what is a typical run of either all-out bullish or all-out bearish consecutive days, before the SP delivers a Zig day to compliment all the Zag days?

For tomorrow the intraday pivot points all point to resistances anywhere from the lower 70's up to the mid 70's.

Not a single 60's figure to be seen on the bullish side , but as you'd expect, there they are if something nasty leaps out tomorrow.

And would you believe it! How does he do it! Stoodio's 80 (81p actually) is sat there smiling back right from the 3rd intraday resistance levels!!!

In other words, mathematically speaking for the first time in SLP's history, 80's are at the window, tapping asking to come in. Well are you going to open the front door and offer the 80's a cuppa tomorrow? :)

Personally I think it's asking too much for Thursday alone (80's) so I expect a close between 73 and 75. Only a minimum of 73 will do.

(Bear in mind the pennies are larger now as the percentages are based on a higher SP number; so get used to it. 10% is no longer 4 or 5p - but 7p strides!)

But overall, I'm Umming and Ahhing about that runaway successful 5 day run of all blues, without it ever taking a day off.
Tomorrow would make that 6 days straight out the gate. Starting to get into record breaking territory. But then again so are the rare metals, per se.

Yep, a minimum of 73 close please - otherwise the intraday's will defo start dropping. You even think of 60's let alone say it, and the SP is just going to retrace.

PS.
Will try and remember to pump in Thursday's opening price early tomorrow, and post, if subsequently results are significantly different to those I've ran through tonight. And will post a corrective update.

(This should be in a separate post really):
PPS. 70's?
The longer term upside suggests "only" a rough doubling from here, as who's going to say this will go to £2, £3, £4, £5 once that eventual doubling of the current price arrives in the near future? The long-long term future, yes.

" Your posts are nothing but genius and are very much well received and appreciated! "
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Stoodio - LOL! You are far too generous - but thank you for the compliment.
How do I go on to account for errors after that? :)

" Can I get a f**king witness here? Jeeeesus."

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I, the wounded and defeated, Bad Black Knight of September, will bear witness to Sir Stoodio of 68's tournament win, let the trumpets bellow and the drums beat, signalling that the Queen is about to present the prizes to the tournament champion
- Ouch! Now if only they can remove this broken lance that's imbedded in my leg, I can watch the ceremony get underway.

Last night when I posted, I was absolutely certain beyond all certainty of certainty, that today, 68 would be way, way, out of reach entirely.

At first I thought the SP was going to close the same as the 1st week of September's highs.
During today, whilst the SP was going gangbusters, I could see it was likely going to close similar to the previous Sept highs and no more. So imagine my surprise at a close of 68!

I thought that would be next to impossible, as it wasn't even listed on the highest resistance levels at all for today! (Or so I thought).

Tonight as I updated the figures for Wed, I realised that from last night, I hadn't input this morning's opening price (more reliability) into the calcs.

And that's when I got my second surprise

- after inputting the opening price - 68 came up on screen as the 3rd and toughest intraday resistance of the day. A very, very, tough intraday resistance to beat. Even if I had updated this morning I still would have believed it impossible as the 3rd intraday resistance levels only get breached upon special earnings increases or some-such.

It's not a common occurrence to get the 3rd intraday resistance in the bag. And yet it did. So congrats to Stoodio for calling it in. And that 68 close has upped the ante.

For tomorrow, there's figures in the 70's all over the place! Not saying it will go there, but it is now listed as a possibility for Wed, if the tremendous SP performance of today, is repeated.

It doesn't alter my current view for the end of Sept. That remains to be seen. But my view of a "lack lustre" Sept performance is starting to very badly curl up at the edges.

It was the same for July and August. The actual % gains for those 2 months smashed the 'seasonal' forecast (which were good anyway) so perhaps the positive I can take from that is - Is it going to continue with the 2nd best 'seasonal' period of the year and do the same to Jan and Feb?

All eye's should be expectant of seeing the 70's appear on screen soon, if not to tomorrow then I wouldn't be at all surprised if they showed up later this week. If one is going to be proved to be in error, I can think of no better way than to look at the blue in my broker's account and see increased £££profits and muse to myself:

Ahhh my portfolio profits are well up today; looks like I'm going to be proved incorrect over September :)

A win-win as they say LOL!

Hollamatronic @ " Lol and then what of bog standard footsie shares which also fell fifty percent or more.... You do talk rubbish. Suppose all these were over bought too or perhaps it fell in line with the sector..."

Ha! Nice try. Try and twist my central point to mean the opposite. This stock was coincidentally overbought just before the March crash occurred, that's all. Most stocks suffered terribly. There is no real way of knowing if those few that were also overbought as well, contributed to their retrace as the vast majority of stocks were not overbought at all!

Your post is trying to curve fit my observations of GGP as only retracing in the crash due to being overbought back then. Had the crash not occurred the SP may have pulled back 'a little'anyway, as I have shown it did 4 or 5 times repeadeftly so far this year.

Many stocks fell further than this one and were not overbought so stop manipulating to fit in with your prejudices.

" The pullback in March was a covid -19 market wide global crash "
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Well, obviously - but the SP was still Overbought and that's why the pullback was circa a 50% retrace, when all the others Overboughts this year, were just roughly a 20% retrace.

Noticed a Lot of stocks were overbought just before the March crash. The market was on a tear up to late February. I suspect those that were overbought retraced moreso than they would otherwise have done in the March crash had they not been overbought beforehand.

" Laughed (kindly) when I saw John Buford's BT link highlighted."

Tsk! Tsk! - John Bu-R-ford ! ! !

Sheesh - gone midnight. I'm done after this :)
------------------------
Thank you lebugue-addick for your fulsome reply. Appreciated.
I accept your dislike of my labelling GGP as a hot stock, perhaps I should have said "stocks that have been in a similar position to GGP".
I notice that you too along with others either avoided or misinterpreted my question, as not a single respondent has said "We know" and/or "we use it as a topping up opportunity" or some-such.

Overbought is not a willy-nilly emotive description of a person's perception, it is a specific and measureable condition of the SP, and my question remains 'Have you noticed that the SP is in overbought condition'? and has been since the beginning of September.

I accept all the research on what great opportunities await this stock, but that is just an account of what has brought the SP to this level, not an admission from anyone that yes they know the SP is overbought currently.

It's been overbought approx 4 or 5 times this calendar year to date. In February the SP was overbought to by just a little higher than tonight's close, and retraced from approx 5.7p odd down to approx 2.9p almost a 50% pullback. The SP of course recovered by early April.

By mid April the SP was once again overbought and eventually went on to retrace again (it was just a little less severely overbought than it is tonight) and pulled back from circa 9.5p to roughly 7.6p (It's the percentage pull back that compelled me to post - a 20% pullback).

The next overbought condition was shrugged off and the SP just continued without so much as a glance back.

The overbought condition after that, occurred in late July at 15p.odd and retraced down to approx 12p. Not a lot in pence but again a 20% pull-back nonetheless.

All of these - ALL bar one - have proved to be buying opportunities. Hence the conclusion in my original post of my waiting it out and buy stock at the inevitable pull back unless the SP mimics the one that shrugged it off :)

That was and remains my question:

Do you know the SP is overbought - not the business - but the SP!
They're two separate entities.

Of the replies, not one single person said yes, we know. Most preferred to take offence. The bubble atmosphere closed minds to the actual question and took it as insult to LTHolders.
My fault for posting on a night of a perceived troll about. But I chose late at night to save clogging up the board during valuable daylight posts.

Tired - I'm turning in for the day! Zzzzzzz.

" Any thoughts on sp tomorrow and later this week ?
Gl
Sani "
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Well, I'm expecting circa 23/24 vicinity (for tomorrow only).
Presupposing nothing big is confirmed or announced.

The same calcs threw up 21-ish for Monday, (which I posted here on Sunday) so looking for 2 out of 2 :)

Has anyone else noticed the growing 'Overbought Condition' of the SP developing, which perhaps gives future notice of a pull back?

Hot stock, rocketship stocks like GGP nearly always break the rules and take no notice - but eventually they do snap into line. I have not bought yet (still at the DYOR stage) historic fundamentals are off putting because that's the nature of these stocks before they hit pay-dirt.

Another reason why investors like myself always miss out on these hot stocks. Probably going to take a small initial punt (eventually) but will wait for that inevitable pull back to test out the O/bought observation; unless the SP reverses out of Over Bought condition slowly, that is :)

" Thanks for posting the article NewSid, I for one would welcome Velo's opinion on this article regarding the future of the BT long-term chart. "

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Hi NigeCo,

The state of all the trends is shown at the foot of the page.

Long term trends are still disastrous looking, as little bull runs on their own are insufficient to have much impact, on the heavy duty "truth" of the SP and if they do develop into something meaningful - It would take another full summer right through to autumn like the summer of 2018, when Gavpants got fired, as THAT period changed everything long term to bullish.

I must say the shape of the SP each day of the last 3 days are rather weedy looking. So whilst a good day today, I can't erase my creeping doubts. When I pumped in this morning's opening price (because it was notably higher) it did relegate 108 further down the list, meaning that it was now a much more serious support, so any visit to it would have been disastrous. 109 took it's place. And wasn't that 112 briefly in the run up to the close? - one of the resistance levels visited fleetingly before rejection.

I should be changing my tune and hugging the two scouts of the short term trends - but the performance of those last 3 days leaves something more to be desired before I can look on, in confidence.

Laughed (kindly) when I saw John Buford's BT link highlighted. He's one of Britain's best Elliot Wave practioners. (Got his book; and the original researchers work by Frost & Pretcher) Had then for years. Must get them read LOL!

He speaks with a very mannered middle class accent. Unmistakably British accent that they like to showcase in US sitcoms - and he's a former NASA scientist! So a rocket scientist.

I have high regard for him over the years, and usually try and read his two columns every week. But I laughed because BT is his Achilles heel - Poor John he's yet to get BT right. He's always wrong on BT! But spectacularly right on almost everything else! There's only two Elliot wave practitioners in the world that I follow. John Burford in the UK and the other one is US based. Both are the best at what they do.

Elliot Waves for the uninitiated are pure 100% Nostradamus voodo-hoodo, Harry Potter magic, prophesies - not predictions but out and out prophesies! LOL!

I can't do it Elliot Waves - hence the books yet to be read. You have to be like the kid in the movies that says: 'I see dead people'. Because as much as they explain with visuals I just can't "see" what they see. But when they're right, boy they are spectacularly right - which is about 8 or 9 times out of every 10.

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BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
-
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

Hi Stoodio, saw your post approx 4:30pm-ish when having a cuppa in-between cutting hedges & trees.

The answer is - Oh yes, it certainly has!
Should have said so after the Bullish Tweezers pattern I was rabbiting on about the other day, they did as they promised and delivered!

The SP did continue bullishly, so that's perhaps why I overlooked following up on it. It crossed bullishly to the upside on Friday and without a doubt has clearly confirmed so, by tonight's close.

And that's the state of affairs at the foot of this page - Back to a full house of all and any trend lines of any description of whatever discipline - Everything bullish!

I'm still holding to further bullish performance in general - but am not surrendering the highs of the first week just yet (67 intraday highs on 2 days in the first week, with a 66 close). A 68 close tomorrow or later this week, would decimate those.

So yes, another penny or two higher perhaps, but will have to be dragged screaming and cursing from my knight's tent to concede, if/when a close or intraday high exceeds the 66/67 area of the 1st week of September :)

Slight chance the SP might go for consolidation around this area (maybe once it matches the first week?) instead of bagging 68 - as tonight's bullish close offers a wee, wee, clue, that whilst still another bullish day is on the cards, it does show some strength from the bears today. Probably nothing though.
(You gotta work for your 68! Sir Stoodio. You've triumphed through the elimination rounds; now for the intermediate rounds :)

Perhaps a close of no less than 65 tomorrow?
But defo, still no 68 coming up on my stuff for Tuesday.

You're going to have to ride and compete in a couple of more deadly jousting rounds before a chance of winkling out the elusive 68. Your Queen expects.

Meanwhile the mad bad, Black September Knight twiddles his dastardly moustache, tightly holding 66 to his breastplate chanting and hissing: My precious, my precious.

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SLP Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH!

Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . . = BULLISH

Oops close @ 121
Typo.

- 21 !

Virtually impossible other than a wild guess for an 8:30am price, IMO.

More comfortable with the day's close which I feel will more likely than not, close @ 121

" Price consolidation does not come into Velos reckoning, straight up or straight down only.
close on 113p or crash back to a quid. why not linger on 110 for a few days, whats wrong with that? "

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- Nothing at all G/Snapps.
Could very well be just consolidation as closing on 110 on Monday may indicate just that - consolidation or as I've been recently terming that area - the neutral pivot point. (Short term trend lines more support your suggestion).

I try not to do predictions on future SP's - only SP's based on the balance of probabilities for one day - the next day.
(I do tend to go in for forecasting overall longer term trends to continue though - until they commence slowly change direction).

So I might desire 112 as a minimum, but also mention about not closing on 109
- all for the same day, Friday.

Both were probable, but only one can end up the closest within the vicinity to that day's close. If you read carefully I never say for certain which one will be closest to the closing price; how can I, who the hell does know?
I talk of " I'd like to see xx breached " or " don't close on or below xx ".

As said, both short term trend lines are bullish; so favour your suggestion of consolidation.
I however, have drawn yet another line in the sand to suggest that for Monday, 108 may be the final straw. Not a prediction but more a fear of, for Monday close.
If it does so, that doesn't mean I think it's going down to challenge 100. These are self-calculated 'daily' intraday pivot points, so might only last a day or two, no guarantees at all for longer lasting. (Long Term Trend lines are much, much, better for that).

" Velo.

blah . . . blah . . . blah . . .

Toff "

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- Y-a-w-n . . . Zzzzzzzz........

Cheerful Charlie here -

Well I think it's over. The mini bull run.

However, this is not clear cut.

Indicators aren't budging from bullish, and both short term trend lines aren't for budging either. However, seek out trouble and ye shall find it.

Thursday close was a spinning top close - a bad sign at the top of an uptrend.
Tonight's close (Friday) was just about a Bearish Engulfing candlestick, even worse than a spinning top, and worse than Covid at the top of an uptrend.

Should the SP close at just 1p lower at 108p on Monday, then that's it, the final straw, fold the picnic tables away, gather in the party poppers.

- Or is it the market (aka hostile bidders and hedgie algo's messing about?)

Got nuthin' good to say of the week's poor close. It's all changed.

But that's just my opinion. Yours may differ.

---------------------------------------

BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
-
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

Yet, another strong close today.
The SP closed on the 1st intraday resistance (would have been asking too much to repeat yesterday's close between 1st and 2nd resistance, but at least signifies the SP has now got the bit between its teeth, alright.

Whatever next?

Well, for starters, will the SP bag 64 on Monday? (It's already intradayed as far as 63.5 today!) Too easy?
Well next up at 2nd resistance, and only a mere 1p higher - is 65.

Hmm.
I currently have a thing about the average high of Sept occurring in the 1st week, which to date, occurred last week an intraday high of 67, and not the actual close - which was 66.
So a 66 close is the current highest Sept close (however that same day intraday, is yet 1p higher than that).

I don't for a moment expect that initial Sept high to be breached on Monday, but will it be possible during next week? That's the real debate.

For anyone thinking that it is possible on Monday alone, well at least it's showing up as an extreme possibility by the pivot points as the toughie 3rd resistance for Monday - as its coming up at . . . 68!

So, possible, but I think probably a bridge too far on Monday itself. Whatever - let battle for the 3rd week commence!

I know Sir Stoodio of 68, has already mounted his horse, swore an oath to the king and wears the queen's colours attached to his lance whilst he and his horse are snorting and chomping at the bit, but Sir Bad, Black knight of September here, thinks no 68 is likely on Monday, besides all horses are to be stabled until Monday.
Let the tournament pennants clap and flap in the wind until then. England awaits.

By gad sir! It's looking like a lively week for the SP, wherever it chooses to end up

Morning Sirus,

Haven't much time as workmen due this morning but your chart looks nothing like mine for Thursday. The opening on yours looks closer to 59!
Here on LSEast it's showing as opening at 57.6 for Thurs opening.

Mine (StockCharts. Com) is showing as opening at 58!

My chart is looking like a Tweezer pattern. Yours as you say does not, and even shows a long lower wick!

I pay a subscription for my charting platform to get live prices and deeper drill down tools. Are you using the free public version of trading view? There's always discrepancies wherever you go - but so as long as one uses the same data it should all pan out. Would hit the roof if my stuff is proven to be wobbly as I pay damn good money for them to deliver accuracy.

I use here n LSE for my self calculated pivot points even though I know they'e notorious for inaccuracy in opening/closing prices.

From various poster's over the years, they all seem to have issues with Google prices. Yahoo never matches with my brokers but have one or two bits of programs that use Yahoo prices but love those little software programs anyway. Gotta go

Well somewhere during the day, the SP turned chameleon and dumped it's mopey bearish face and switched to wearing a bull mask. That bearish day I said I was expecting today? Dead as a Dodo. killed in battle.
Gone up in a puff of smoke - like pfft!

If knowing the result tonight, and could rerun Thursday, would I change my statement?

No I wouldn't because it doesn't work like that. The balance of probabilities all weighed on a bearish SP today. It's accepted any strategy will misfire occasionally. But you don't change a winning strategy that gives results over the longer term by judging all on one particular day. Check out the story of "The Turtles". They only took on candidates who showed they wouldn't change course even when the winning strategy was having a losing day. You have to stick with it.

To close on 61 means the SP broke through the 1st intraday resistance and came to rest between that and the next 2nd resistance.

Without a doubt that's a strong performance. No if's, no but's - that was strongly bullish. A lot of the indicators and the ultra short term trend still don't know what hit them today and all are still reading bearish.

Tomorrow the first target to overcome for the SP I have as 63, so Stoodio's 62 is in the crosshairs to fall.

It's okay if the SP wants to stay in it's kennel at 60; but close no lower, otherwise it means there's something not right.

Smashing candlestick close tonight - a bullish "tweezer" pair formed at the bottom of the downtrend, which means only one thing :)