Member Info for Velo

Typo! £12m?

Yes, my eyesight must be failing me: £21m!

£12m MCap and if my eyesight isn't failing me is listed as having the number of employees as, wait recount... Yes double checked and employees listed as.... 1 (One)!

The corner shop employs more :)

On the other hand that does show good expense control; no profligacy there.

Thanks Clemoc.
Not bought at the moment. Considering though - but only if a dirt cheap opportunity presents itself with one possibly hoving into view next week.

One to trade if I do buy, as never, never, never ever, holding blindly, long term again (without taking occasional action) like I've done with BWNG. Too embarrassed to declare the average price I've paid here. Think several £££'a above the current price per share. I blame one person only - the bloke staring back at me in the mirror every morning.

No way am I taking up this offer.

The £100m diluting of the share pool is a hugely significant amount in comparison to the current MCap (might have an effect on the SP) and the last trading update was typical of all the years I've experienced in this holding - poor performance not matching the BOD's gonna do this/ gonna do that, hype.

Could be well wrong of course. But I for one, am not participating.
Won't be surprised if an even cheaper offer than 57p presents itself, despite buying costs.

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Hi Clemoc
- just placed a post on a stock then I saw in the posts that you had an old holding in (XLM).
I know you're out of it now. But if you still have an interest in it; what do you think currently?
Am I messing about with another BWNG in it's historic downtrend, or is it possibly currently at the floor area?

I know this stock has been in a vicious downtrend since the very beginning of 2018, but this latest rally has broken through the lord and master of all trend lines
- the 200 period moving average!

It's an important juncture. If this stock is to continue and prosper, the SP has to stay above it, which it has just achieved since Monday of last week. Most stocks trying to break away, never do so in one clean sweep, but take several runs at it.

Contrary to the slightly out of date Zak Mir analysis below, I expect the SP to continue the retrace next week, but maybe only back to the 200 day border, circa 23p-ish. Might even drop below it.
It's an important area for the SP.

Lots of good things 'potentially' on the horizon for XLM so giving it the benefit of the doubt to halt the retrace +/- around the 23p-ish 200 day border.

If it's a false rally, then it's back to its recent SP history of slip, slip, slipping away.

However, currently, that's a magnificent breakthrough right past that important 200 period area. If it's meaningful and therefore the floor of this longer-term downtrend, then it mustn't dive down much past 23p, or if so, only for a day or two at most.

Now all I have to decide is two things: Is it a buying opportunity, or has last week been a false rally?

Decisions, decisions, decisions :)

(Made a right wad of money on a gambling connected stock previously (GVC).

Just a quick reminder -
It's XD day on 12th November, so the SP will drift a little lower from Thursday onwards, so a bit surprising at the SP dropping in advance of that going into this weekend, as usually a stock rises slightly in anticipation of investors who are interested in getting aboard, do so to nab the dividend.

Which in this case means buying by the end of Wednesday, the 11th for a 19p per share divi (payable in January). Not that much really.

On the other hand, anyone looking for a lower entry price, will achieve so, from Thursday onwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibX0TPI3a9w

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Donald Trump was returning to the Whitehouse but the security doorman prevented him from entering.

Trump complained:
Hey, let me in, I live here!

The security guard shook his head saying:
No sir, you cannot enter - it's forbiden.

" BT should fly as Biden has become president! "

-----------------

- Not my view, WIWorth :)

But thank god the Trump monster has been given the boot. The world seems a better place just on that news alone.

But BT to fly, due to a Biden presidency? Wishful thinking.

All politicians are much of a muchness - they take peoples savings and transfer it to spenders.

It matters not a jot which political party is in power, they all do the same thing
- print money they can't afford.
They call it govt policy and sell it as quantaive easing.

If the ordinary person tries that, it's called a crime and labelled as counterfeiting.

Doesn't matter how they package the stimulus packages - it's just printing money to feed more artificiality into the financial system and to hell with the consequences.

Record length of time in history terms for low interest rates. When was the last time anyone got a decent savings rate on their savings? They want you to earn nowt (negative interest rates on the horizon?) so that you spend what little savings you have and thus "stimulate" the economy - and save the politicians rrr'ses.

Biden will be no different to all that.

Might be a natural initial euphoria that will briefly touch everything, but longer term, Biden's victory will do nothing for BT's SP.

Only publication of increasing revenue and profits results will do that.

" Any views on the sp next week "

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Yes, go straight to the end of this post for my view or read on how I came to that view:

That question header, caused me out of curiosity, to check if there was an early consensus analysts report in BT's files yet; so checked, and even though I had checked last night there it was - an update dated 6th Nov!

Immediately thought - that's it! They're coming out early to update their continually under estimating forecasts.

That's what I was expecting, an updated increase - because net profit achieved by BT has been far greater than analysts forecasts for the 2 quarters, so far this year.

- They just have to upgrade the old, lowball forecast profit figures for the full future years. But it was just the brief summary page with the first Q3 forecast but
- for revenue only!

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus#q3-2020-2021

So, clicked through to the consensus page where you get the full Monty, that starts with revenue, all the way down to the last heading of net profit with all and sundry and everything else in-between those two. But could only see the old 16th October forecasts for Q2.

So, switched the desktop on, as the phone must be playing up. But it was no mistake. The lead-in header to the consensus page clearly states 6th November, but the usual full disclosure has not been published there yet.

So looks at that page (link above) anyway, and disappointingly it's for revenue only, with a bit on cash flow and EPS which I don't want to multiply out to get a rough profit figure, in case of introducing errors.

And sad to say with just that itty-bitty Nov 6th page they've downgraded all 3 forward years revenues even further.

Would have thought revenue already forecast to be down on future years would remain as is, but they've increased the decline for all 3 years! Not by hundreds of millions, only double figure millions, so no biggie, but it bodes ill-well for when they eventually release full disclosure. Never, ever, seen them do this before - withhold the full report, and only release Q3 and future years revenue.

Whatever, with that - I'm not optimistic for the SP next week.

Genuinely - I've been expecting a profit forecast increase on their old forecasts
- and therefore a potential sentiment increase in the SP, but this is disappointing.
Don't know where we are with these forecasts now.

Either they'll release the rest of the figures one day next week, or hold off until the end of next week, ie., next Saturday.

Nov 6th revenue is sitting in public view now, so they MUST have the other forecast figures - either BT itself, is withholding publishing them, or BT have only been handed the revenue forecasts only.

Disappointed.

So, in short, not expecting anything positive for the SP next week, once that meagre titbit gets out to the market.

All the previous mini rallies that peaked, lasted at their peak 2 or 3 days, with roughly the 2nd or 3rd day in red, it signalled the peak was over and each rally expired and subsequently retraced steadily. (Tonight the SP closed 4%x down in red tonight).
I also think the SP closed looking like a candlestick Doji which indicates market indecision to carrying on in the current prevailing direction.

Is this occasion going to be different and instead carry on rising?

- I think not, and now fully expect the SP to replicate the other peak and trough behaviours that have been in play since August to currently.

Each and every one of them was (technically) overbought at their peak and waddya know, this SP peak is still in overbought territory tonight.

So down the SP must go sometime next week, to find equilibrium and peace.

Most retraced back to the base at the start of each spiky day that exploded to the maximum peak, but I don't think this one will do quite the same, it seems to be magnetised to a popular ma trend line and retraces back to it.

- That trend line carries on rising in each case, so in this case I doubt 6's will get a revisit as I'm expecting it to keep rising to 7's /or just as likely no lower than 8's before the SP descends kissing it/touching it and calling out 'you're it', and then departing away - if this repeating pattern continues and carries on gently until the next peak and trough 'explosion'.

Also, noticed they all came off overbought condition but never descended to the sub 50Rsi lower deciles of bearishness in relative strength index terms, but instead floored around circa the low 50's Rsi and thus all remained in a bullish condition which fed into the next rally. So will be looking for low Rsi 50's should the SP retrace next week, as the initial 'buying' area heads-up..

All-in-all, I'm setting my cap for 7's.

If it does kiss the 7's (maybe over the next fortnight or less) I'll take the offer.

This peak was quite extraordinary, and so, maybe could signal the end of these temporary repeating patterns, thus making this post redundant, and the SP could keep rising from here.

Neah, just messing wid ya'.
- It's overbought for goodness sake - it's SP knickers are coming dahn next week!

I'm plumping for a repeat retrace, and now expect next week to commence the retrace proper. I'm going for 7's.
You may say, no 11's and 12's next. Game-on as they say :)

Who knows for sure? Such fun :)

All IMO only of course.

Right - 10 years ago, you say Troajan? - 2010?

From when it was listed in early 2005, UKOG fell like a stone - for years and years!

Want to turn in for the night, but briefly - just brought the price action up to reveal all.

It continued falling - all the way into the 2007/2009 crash era, right up to your 10 years ago vicinity of 2010 - where from the summer of 2009 into mid-2010 it just flat based, rangebound in a sideways movement doing absolutely nuthin', neuther up nor down.

A short term spike (late 2010) of no significance to that all- powerful long term trend spiked the price up from circa 12.50-ish to circa 26-ish whereupon it started retracing almost immediately.

It's all there - the price stated reverting to the mean average - in this case the mean average of the long term down trend!

5% down, 10% down, 20 % down.
Why didn't you realise it was still in a long term down trend, and sell?
What was being experienced was a mere spike in a predominant, powerful, longer-term, down trend.

The big fall from 2005 to that date, then recontinued after that spike for years to circa 2014.

So 9 years of a major failure - a massive downtrend and this guy Lenigas gets the blame? Puleeze!

From 2014 to 2017 the SP climbed erratically. But climb it did. 2014 to 2017 is the only time I'd have any sympathy for investors as that was confusing.

Because from summer of 2017 it recommenced that big fall - and has not stopped from 2017 to this very day! Current price = 0.17

Lenigas was not the reason for that pump and dump.
UKOG was a stinker stock, still-born from birth.

Investors own fault - apart from the difficult area of 2014 to 2017.

" Will wait for £14.75 plus to....."

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Ha! Now there's a near-coincidence.

I'm waiting for THE MONTH of November to close ABOVE 1470 - and confirm as near as damn it, that this shorter term downtrend is over.

And that will be my buying signal. AND I will re-enter GSK on that signal.

Mid 1550's would be even better as it confirms two more important areas achieved for me.
- But this month end price - if it achieves it, and or holds above 1470 by this month end, is good enough for re-entering.

So pleased I held back from re-entering sub 1300 as I closed my prior entry upon the realisation I had jumped the gun, so it means a lot to me that I can learn to hold my horses when executing long wait patience stalking - nearly failed the test when I prematurely bought in last month - but quickly closed out.

So don't give a kipper that I let sub 1300 go. It would have been chance and my strategy focuses on probabilities.

Stage 1 = break 1470 by month-end.

Stage 2 = No date for achieving mid 1500's - but that seals the deal for good, and signals full return to the long term uptrend path is full on - in yer face! :)

But first things first. Bring me the head of 1470 - by this month close!
No good the SP achieving it intra-month, then falling and closing below it, no.
Show me brute force and strength - and bring it in!

" i remember ukog,it went to the moon on false billion barrel claims by dl..then he sold his holdings,on that peak "

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Krrist! Is there no one on here that casts an eye over a chart once in a blue moon?

ie., " ..then he sold his holdings,on that peak "

- No need to have gone down with the ship, as anyone could have measured the trend, and do as he did.

PS.
Give me a date "he" did that to you, so I can check the veracity of the accusations of this Lenigas character - anytime over the past 15 years as not sure which period you are referring too.

The all time high was 15 years ago at the very beginning - before any false PR!
So which period are you referring to?

But I bet you any amount the trend was there on the chart shouting its intentions from the rooftops.

And right there is the No:1 reason why retail investors lose money - as a breed, we are inclined to go long whilst a stock is downtrending.

Why? Invest in an uptrend - unless you have insider info!
Won't work 100%
But investors will lose most of the time if they are incapable of knowing if their holding is in a long term uptrend or downtrend - or rangebound - always be ready at the drop of a hat to answer that question with absolute accuracy - at any time you hold a stock.

Not being aware of that means these Lenigas types will always eat you for breakfast.

Rant over.

Post on GGP by a well regarded poster, who has good reason for opining that it's bad news for WSBN now that Lenigas is interested and gave examples of why so, stating today's buyers will soon be averaging down "in a jiffy".

For the sake of clarity I'm reposting my reply to that here, in case some read it and think I'm trolling and playing both sides of the casino table or something.

I replied to that post with the following which just as easily could stand on it's own on this board.

==========

No Opinion

RE: GGP and refToday 19:52
" If u got into WSBN today..... well you’ll be averaging down in a jiffy! "

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I think it will retrace from the peak it's currently attaining - as it has done since August over several (4) peaks and troughs
(and also a little before that period too - but only by larger amounts since August).

So yes, buying at today's high would be risky IMO and see your scenario maybe retracing "in a jiffy" over maybe the next fortnight.

But the question is:
Will this rising peak and trough pattern totally collapse or continue? No sign yet that it will totally collapse, but am expecting (as you say) that it will pull back - maybe over the next fortnight.

But no sign yet, that this is the final peak.
Ballet shoes needed if interested in WSBN? I'm currently trying on a pair to see if they fit. But won't buy at the peaks - troughs only, that - and controlled stakes.
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Peaks and troughs here too in GGP. Think the current lows are in for this stock as the next phase IMO is on to the next peak. Was hoping to add to lower my 19.9p entries - but that low is over now, the SP is not going to accommodate me.
On to the next high :)

" If u got into WSBN today..... well you’ll be averaging down in a jiffy! "

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I think it will retrace from the peak it's currently attaining - as it has done since August over several (4) peaks and troughs
(and also a little before that period too - but only by larger amounts since August).

So yes, buying at today's high would be risky IMO and see your scenario maybe retracing "in a jiffy" over maybe the next fortnight.

But the question is:
Will this rising peak and trough pattern totally collapse or continue? No sign yet that it will totally collapse, but am expecting (as you say) that it will pull back - maybe over the next fortnight.

But no sign yet, that this is the final peak.
Ballet shoes needed if interested in WSBN? I'm currently trying on a pair to see if they fit. But won't buy at the peaks - troughs only, that - and controlled stakes.
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Peaks and troughs here too in GGP. Think the current lows are in for this stock as the next phase IMO is on to the next peak. Was hoping to add to lower my 19.9p entries - but that low is over now, the SP is not going to accommodate me.
On to the next high :)

Wait a minute, wait a minute . . .

Only just realised the annual trading results for year end 2019 and this year's 2020 H1 trading update are terribly close, virtually on top of each other
- only barely a fortnight apart in publication terms.

Geez -These tiddler stocks are going to take some getting used to!

So,,,,,,,,,,, That means ALL the fund raising I highlighted below occurred after the H1 results, and were not included in the H1 update. Bugger!

I can only extrapolate the cash for the year end from the H1 fuller figures, so it's more complicated than my initial post.

I know wish to withdraw my post of $160k cash position as the dates of the additional funds are outside of the H1 figures.

Sorry - my error.

PS. Should the year end complete showing cash in that vicinity, then it would be sheer coincidence as the TTM calc was compiled without the additional funds included. Doh!

. . . and are showing net profit to beat the old analysts current forecast of £1.4bn to instead close the year up - at circa £1.522bn

- Which is a little disappointing to me, as initially upon sight of the H1's (whilst I was away oop north) I could envisage it being £1.736bn - £2m higher than last year - still could be, it's like the analysts forecasts - just estimates.

Also the new revenue for the year end is showing to likely be down by a further £800,000 at £22.018bn.

Also net debt to close lower but only by roughly £300,000 or so.

Whatever, the analysts will almost certainly be forced to up their forecasts for pre tax profit and net profit at the next update (next week end? Maybe).

Let's suppose they do increase their forecasts, they'll probably still leave the figures (like the TTM algo figures above) showing a decline against last year, so bears will be happy, but in the right atmosphere, will an increase in pre tax profit and net profit BY THE ANALYSTS have a bullish effect on sentiment and hence the SP?

Only (roughly) a week and a half to go, to find out.

EyeGuy,
I may have this wrong but that $0.85m was all raised before the year end results were compiled so were on the books by the H1 trading update. The figure I quote takes all that into account and projects the expenses deducted to obtain a running cash total likely to be in the vicinity by this year's close.

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" · On 2nd June 2020, the Company appointed Peterhouse Capital Limited as brokers. On the same day, we raised £856,702 consisting of £300,000 in cash and £556,702 in debt and creditor conversions into equity. This was raised at 1.35p per share.

· On 20th August 2020, the Company raised £400,000 specifically to focus on expansion of our exploration programs in Australia. This fund raising was at 2p and was accompanied by warrants at 3p issued on a 1 for 2 basis. "

Also added to that was this:
" · On 24th September 2020, the Company announced that 94% of the warrants had been exercised thus raising a further £283,200 at 3p per share."

The only thing is, the the data used is from the H1 trading report and that includes only up to the end of September.

As all those additional funds were declared as having been received BEFORE the compilation of the H1 trading result I have to assume that taking the current burn rate of expenses et al (without any net profit buffer) that leaves all that down at $160,000 by this year end.

I'm quite prepared to accept I have this wrong as the metrics I am using are for regular, established set-up's and not these wildcat strikes/ speculative stocks.

At the moment my view of the cash position differs from others. The year end will have to go on the back burner until then, to thus make it clear to all of us.

I'm not going to labour the point. Leaving it there.

If others want to believe that there's $800,000+ then it's of no interest to me. But bear in mind those funds don't lie there like surplus savings - they pay of the running expenses/burn rate, so unless there is some net profit to show it will reduce and decline from the set-go.

Cash position at year end results:

2014 = $300,000
2015 = $260,00
2016 = $1,070,000
2017 = $260,000
2018 = $24,000
2019 = $17,000
TTM method of cacls for current cash position = $160,000

Okay Phoebus, if you think CASH is higher let's hear it.
Just saying it's higher won't cut it - Show your sources.

" The actual figure is significantly higher than that even after factoring in Telfer/Havieron licence acquisition costs."

- PROVE IT!