That Roy Orbinson song?20 Nov 2020 21:37
Had to check today's intraday price action as thought the afternoon had settled into 124/123
but that 122 close - is the end!
(It appears to have shown up around 4pm and held into close).
Last night the overbought condition descended alarmingly by close, but was still within overbought territory. Tonight it has fallen well clear and out of that condition.
Also the ultra short term trend line (too fast for normal use) was almost kissing last night - but by tonight it had not only done that but crossed over, and has now crossed to the downside.
So that's 2 head's-up. Several other indications also looking sheepish tonight, but borderline.
When I posted, that based on BT's previous history, the overbought condition might terminate towards the end of the week, I was unsure after 130 appeared, but here it is. Dropped completely out of overbought condition 100%.
If a good day on Monday it's still not too far from going back, but as it is akin to crack cocaine all SP's are best out of it - and it would have to be a significant uptick on Monday for that to happen - and I'm now almost certainly bearish on the SP, and it continuing further away from overbought.
The SP is still in bullish relative strength in the upper deciles, and unless Monday is another shocker, will take some time before it loses the current bullish relative strength and descends, if ever it does descend into the bearish half of relative strength - but I fear the worst now.
Was fully expecting o/bought to end and it has, so it all adds up - the rally is over IMO.
Next up, is (if the SP descends further) - is most probably the significant 200 period area which tonight sits in the 115's.
So my thinking is: if there is any strength in the SP, will it get repelled by the 200 period average and stay north of its continually descending valuation which as said, is currently 115 tonight but will be 114 by early next week, and so on until it ceases (quite soon).
The next trend line is below the biggie 200 average at 112.
So , as rare as it has been for 5 years, the big 200 period average could act as the SP's wingman, otherwise just a matter of time before the next lower trend line meets up with the SP.
Also the 200 average is continually dropping in price, but slowing up it's angle of descent like a plane coming in to land, and may just act as a buffer. Absolute danger is, if things revert to the same-old, same-old, and the SP shoots straight through the 200 average and keeps to the underside of it - as it has done for the past 5 years.
As previously said, you don't whizz past the almighty, big 200 period average on the first attempt - without a care in the world as there will be consequences - well here they are tonight. (I regard this as a first pass by the SP; there will be further attempts - that the SP MUST finally win - to survive and prosper).
Pivot points next >>>
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