Member Info for Velo

" But unlike Velo and just about everyone one else on here I’m a professional trader "

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- But crap at it!

I personally think you've barely got 2 pennies to rub together. You seem to forget we are not all new posters on this forum and several of us over the years have seen your multiple FAILED entries into BT - several times!

You did say you made a small profit on a short once. Not unexpected because going long in BT ar anytime since 2016 has always been a losing proposition until last month.

In all previous rallies one had to be fleet of foot to get out quick if long.

A professional loads the risk reward ratio towards themselves - and that excludes going long in a multiple-year, down-trending stock!!!!!!!!!!

Others will recall your multiple closing of positions time after time, cursing BT for your own failures. Oh how your mood changed! Blaming BT, blaming all and sundry for your losses, mostly taking your rage out on Fleccy.

A professional would have long realised BT had been in a down-trend for years
- but not you - expected the SP to rise just because you bought in - and because (snig. ger) - you are never wrong LOL!

- You must be a blood relative of Donald Trump, because there's the truth - then there's your fantasy version of it. LOL!

" Because I am rarely wrong. "

- Said Adrian Mole aged 14 and a half.

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- Old Chinese proverb say: He who never made a mistake never made anything!

Just add -

For accuracy, the 3 old guys :) pivot points also depend on entering theat morning's opening price too, so I will need to enter the 8:00am opening price into the calcs first thing tomorrow. Without entering the opening price I don't get the spooky aura effect :)
- The free sites would look at you blankly if you were to ask them that; because they never do, hence inaccuracy abounds.

Generally, I don't much bother unless it's a stock I'm buying/selling because they hardly alter - but they do alter significantly if it's a big gap-up or gap-down that starts the day off.

Emm did say she was expecting a decent gap-up on opening, so the pivot points may change significantly.

- Hope I 'm free around just gone 8:00am then - and will re-post accordingly :)

You can trade UK stocks and Indices up to 10pm Friday night - IG then closes down for the week - and don't recommence trading the Indices until 11pm Sunday night.

So, if looking for a take on the FTSE for Monday (or the US indices) the first gist you'll get of it, from IG - is from 11pm tonight.

" (I'd yawn if I could cease s********* to myself)

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Eh?
What "sn.ig.g.e.ring" as a word, is banned?

Alright, how about if I could stop laughing to myself? :)

"If same happens to bt that’s 137/140 open in mng imho "

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Hope you're on course there Emm.

I will reveal that the 3 old guys resitances in full, concur with you
- IF it's a VERY strong, very bullish day as the calc comes out at:

134 resistance and if breached next target is 137
and should that get jumped over then they have 141 as the third hurdle of the day

- but you've got to be convinced it's a raging-hot bullish day come Monday
- and flush the scrare prices quoted by some down the pan.

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£1 forecasts - over the weekend by the over-excitable???
(I'd yawn if I could cease s******ing to myself)

I know Emm, 132 is the pivot point though, despite you saying the price is being quoted higher. They are two separate entities.

Free sites lazily enter the actual last SP into the pivot point box, which is incorrect. Let it all unfold.

After all, Pivot Points are intraday guides only, not forecasts.

But mine come from three long-deceased pit traders from the 70's and the pre-computers pre digital age; hence the mechanical composition of them that pays no attention to "news."

Still, over the years the ones I self calculate do have a spooky aura to them.

If tomorrow is bearish but not too bearish, then I'd be most surprised indeed if the SP closed even a penny below the 3 old guys 129.

That's how spooky I've found them; but remember , they're only supposed to be intraday guides only. A bad bearish day would only bring up 128.

And most important at Christmas you're not supposed to get water on the back of them either!

Won't bring up what the old guys say about if it turns out to be a really, really, bad bearish day - let's not go there :)

Concludes > > >

".... All prices are 100% devoid of Brexit influence.

Decision1)
If in the ensuing weeks the SP does indeed prove to visit 100 - I will be an instant buyer.
I'm estimating the relative strength would have entered oversold condition by then, And THAT is my money trigger for jumping the gun for a Christmas flutter
- not 100p per se

- but into a future post now ( that the average over the last 5 years is after overbought (usually after a month or two) the SP then visits oversold, never seen overbought visited twice in a row in BT; any other stock, plenty of times. BT? Not in the past 5 years)

- which I thought it was on course to do midweek - visit overbought a 2nd time - but gave it gave up the ghost at RSi 69 and shows there is a lot of bullish sentiment about for BT!

Reason? Because I've never seen 2 overbought conditions one straight after the other in the entire past 5 years big down trending retrace.

Double and triple Oversolds - aplenty times.

Decision 2?
Was Included in No:1 was: If no 100p - was to act on entering oversold whatever the price was at that time regardless
- but a wild guess now
- 100 would most likely correspond with an oversold occasion

- and I've had a ton of fun with oversolds in this massive down trend over the years. Still in profit from doing nothing but that in BT, but made judgement errors along the way, reducing that profit do a derisory £500 or so.

" Velo, with the Brexit trade deal deadline being put back, I was thinking that we maybe in for a positive day on Monday, will the market not take this move as a positive sign that maybe, just maybe, we may get a trade deal? "

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V interesting question Nige -
Please forgive my long-winded reply but left a lot out due to previous post lengths, so taking the opportunity here:)

- Some observers have opined these public statements by both sides saying jointly (like they were both reading from the same script):

"Highly unlikely a deal will be agreed"

- are not meant for our domestic ears, but rather for each opposing negotiating teams ears, in a game of:
- Who will blink first?

Whatever. They're paid to sort it out - so get on with it. It's their job not ours.

##########

When I was putting together the pivot points I immediately assumed I'd made an error.
The first 2 supports came out at 129 and 128 areas (and a further support at 123).

I thought: What !?!
After the big retrace on Thursday and Friday wiping out the whole of the 130's?
Only 129/128?!?
- Never in this world! Surely they should be worse?!?

There's bearish indicators abounding and in particular really foul looking candlestick patterns threatening further drops in the SP and the spooky (and I do mean spooky) and yet the Pivot Points first 2 resistances are only suggesting 129 and 128 supports???
Eh? You what?
Unbelievable!

- So like you, I looked (thinking this looks more positive than human emotion was intimating over the weekend news) at the resistances. And they too are also close at hand. I didn't post the bullish resistances because

a) Posts were already too long

and

b) The resistances were but a sneeze away, close to hand - and I still couldn't figure out what I'd entered up incorrectly!

(There was no input error)

So here they are, if " IF " it's not a bearish day at all - all the SP has to do is stay in the orbit, and close in the orbit - of 132p

How difficult is that? That would be a neutral only - live to fight another day scenario.

But the definitive answer to your - 'could it be a positive day tomorrow'?
- is if the SP closes on or above 134
- and if so, that's a gold plated bullish positive!
And then most likely the Ultra-Short Term trend has been a false negative.

Anyway, either 129 or 128 IS unmistakeably a bearish close that threatens worse to come and even 128 which doesn't sound a lot after the weekend scare stories is, in the pivot point world, a really, really, seriously bad close to the day.

Hence my further posts of the 116's and 200 period avgs of 113/112 will remain on the table for the next week or so.

All prices are 100% devoid of Brexit influence.

Decision1)
If in the ensuing weeks the SP does indeed prove to visit 100 - I will be an instant buyer.
I'm estimating the relative strength would have entered oversold condition by then, And THAT is my money trigger for jumpin

UPDATE AS OF FRIDAY CLOSE -

BT currently -

200 day ma trend . . . . . . = Neutral > New. Almost horizontal, no longer gently sinking south.
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . . = Bearish
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = Bearish > New on Friday

As said, for Monday alone, I'm not expecting the SP to close below 129/128 - if things are bad.
But the week did close bearishly and I do expect that 129/128 to hold later after Monday, so will examine possible scenarios in line with the previous pullback and the long awaited (IMO) revisit to the 200 period average.

The previous pull back retraced to circa 116 (first day of December I think. So my initial thoughts are that the SP might bottom out circa mid 120's in this coming week (worst case scenario). But if it's a really strong pull back - and it's looking that way, then I can easily envisage a revisit to near to the previous low of circa 116's.

However, I refer you to my previous assertion back in early November of my utter surprise that a near-5 year underperforming SP should flash past the mighty 200 period trend (then at 117) without so much as a nod or a wink and posted of consequences for such behaviour.

If that assertion of mine carries any validity then the fierce bearish closing on Friday almost certainly heralds that possibility is now nigh. So if this is a more serious retrace then I can envisage a settling of bills with the SP paying a visit to the 200 period average to apologise for the rudeness.

Only thing is - the non-stop descending of the 200 period average is no longer at 117 and on Friday had parked up at 113 - but best of all, it was almost horizontal - which if it wasn't for the Brexit news would be a cause for some minor 2-stage celebrations (2-stage because it will turn bullish ad start rising soon in the coming weeks) because for the first time in near 5 years that 200 period average has only ever levelled off then rose - during the summer of 2018 - during that great, big bull run.

Only occurred once in 5 years and here it is about to do it a second time! Had to blow the screen up and the 200 is so horizontal it wasn't apparent that it still had a remaining bias to the down side which might peter out in it's current 113, or micro down slowly to 112 and stop there
- (and not in January as I think I mused in an earlier post the other week; but imminently!)

I'm 'convinced' the horizontal 200 period average will prevent too much of a retrace, with the SP in the worst case scenario in the coming weeks and that the SP will only ever pay a visit to +/- that area by a small amount (not saying it will bottom out on 113 precisely, I'll leave that to 'forecasters').

That's over the coming weeks, not next single week.

I really should wait until events unfold and follow the trend, but -
No - I do not see the SP falling to £1 in the next couple of weeks.

- Your opinion may differ.

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BT currently -

200 day ma trend . . . . . . = Neutral (No longer gently sinking south)
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . . = Bearish
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short t

Concludes -

" . . . Those are my line in the sand expectations for Monday only, and as mild as they seem, it's my life long experience of investors profiting from speculating on world events impacting our markets - turn out to be 100% crap.
For example -

As humans we can't do it. Soros was lucky over the ERM (1979?) and headlines screamed The Man who Broke the Bank of England as he pocketed a cool £1bn profit.

Decades later the headlines quietly announced:

Time For Soros to Go Back into Retirement?

- When he lost it all (Brexit Remain failure) by betting the opposite to what he bet on the £ back in '79 and lost a similar amount - thus proving it's sheer gambling. You have to be lucky - all the time - when gambling.

However if bears are in "luck", then the above para of line-in-the-sand expectations on the day of 29/28 will be destroyed on Monday - as it's a Monday only expectation guide.

I'll go on to the rest of the week in the next post with a more bearish view -and hence with a more worse case scenario,

- And that outcome is - . . . it's still not coming out at a £1 !

The data I'm using to post (following this para) doesn't have access to personal opinions, nor apply a mathematical value to mass media reports (although some indexes in the US, do measure general media bullish/bearishness
- usually with a view to investing contrary to the media reports) as often the media is at its most extreme and panic stricken issuing warnings, when markets are close to approaching their maximum travel in the direction the media is warning about.

When the media is full of market crashes/ dramatically falling house prices, or the opposite - it's too late to get on the bandwagon, as the media usually only reports at maximum sensationalism - when each event is reaching its near-peak and overlook that markets have already been factoring in concerns over any particular event. The uncertainty over Brexit has impacted the FTSE for a couple of years now, so a lot of the pain, but not all, is already factored into many UK stocks; if they do fall further, it may be not as deeply or as far, as you might first think.

Anyway, I have to report that the Ultra-Short Term trend, has whipsawed back into a bearish trend, just about confirmed on Friday, or will be for certain, most likely by Monday close.

Nothing unusual about that - in isolation.
So far it's in line with an up trending zig-zagging bull trend.
Consider:
From early November, the SP shot up from low 100's to close all in one day in the low 120's!

It carried on (to 130) by now mid-November - until it 'pulled-back' from that date, terminating that rise by pulling back all the way to the end of November, and from there at circa 116, it set off, on a continuance of the larger bull run, intradaying mid week up to circa 140. And has now commenced another pull back, using the entire 130's in doing so, over 2 days!

- And in the process, just like the 2nd half of November converted the Ultra-Short Term trend from bullish to brearish.

It's a replay of that, just like you see on most all up-trending stocks - a significant rise interspersed with pullbacks along the way. As long as the larger major trends remain bullish, it's just breathing in; and breathing out.

So, ignoring the media reports of their interpretation of Brexit meetings, I will only draw-in deep breaths should on Monday, the SP close below the mid 120's.

Personally I'm of the opinion if the day is bearish, it will most likely close no worse than 129/128's - those are media/Brexit-free pivot points, so form your own opinion.

Those are my line in the sand worst expectations for Monday only, and as mild as they seem, it's my life long experience of investors profiting from speculating on world events impacting our markets - always turn out to be 100% crap.
For example -

Concludes in next post > > >

Before I turn in -

" I will assure you that I will never post to this board again. "

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Oh come on now Alas_Smith! Don't let them get to you. It can be like shoving your hand into a furnace on nights of a full moon when the howling hard-radical zombies from Remainerland come out looking to feast on human flesh.

If you're interested in BT, you've very welcome, just watch what you step over when you come in, it could be the undead, especially on a full moon night.

Well that's going to be interesting then. (The pound specifically).

" Analysts warned that ending the talks on Sunday without a deal would trigger a fresh sell-off, which could sink the currency close to parity with the dollar "

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- Well, they haven't been examining the dollar in isolation to the pound then!
Fact - the dollar is not what it once was!

Before the March crash - the dollar index was circa 99/100 but once the crash commenced the dollar index started falling heavily (dollar index = the $ measured against a basket of other world currencies) the dollar had been rising bullishly since 2011 peaking just before the crash. (As it rose out of March it briefly touched $104 before falling again).

To this day it just hasn't stopped falling and is currently residing down at 90!

That's the mighty US, so what chance the wee poor, oh so poor, poor, pound? Answer = The exact opposite.

Initially it too crashed in March, from mid 1.30's to 1.14's Remember the 1.14's?

(After the referendum result it initially fell to circa mid 1.30's if I recall correctly - and then kept on falling to circa 1.14's also).

But whereas after March, the dollar index kept falling to barely 90 tonight, the pound has done nothing but rise and rise against the dollar!

So much so, that it was back to mid 1.30's by Thursday - the price on the day after the referendum! (the dollar was approx 5% higher back then too - but it sadly, since has "crashed" to tonight's $90!

- meanwhile after today's 'bad news' the pound sits at 1.32 (down on the day from 1.35).

Contrast that to all those previous 1.14's.

So question: How come the pound has risen so much more bullishly than the dollar since the March crash?

I'd sure like to see the analysts assertion tested should it be a no-deal conclusion, because against all doomsday forecasts the pound has never been stronger since the referendum or the March crash. How's that for tonight's pound-price, after a day of such devastating Brexit talk news?

Repeat: you can not forecast the future; no one can; (but you can get lucky) - as much to his cost, Soros himself found that hios luck had changed by betting that Remain would be the result of the referendum. His luck had ran out! Cost him dear that.

The pound on parity near to the dollar? Who knows?
- But I wouldn't bet your shirt on it.

"Fleccy and Velo and others have all filtered me at some time or other, "

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- Ha! Don't honour yourself. News to me. I've yet to filter anyone, ever!

When forums and posters become too tiresome, it is I who leave; not the other way round.

" 100% agree Toff. & U.K. deserve it too, .."

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"Deserve it to"? Tsk! Dear god Aus! What are you up to?

- Shame on you Aus for knowingly enabling a poster with known mental health issues. He can't help his behaviour due to medical conditions - but you can.

That's cruelty - you urging him on, to crank up his obsessive behaviourisms.

The UK deserves it? Don't you have family here? Why would you want to tell them they deserve it, if your apocalyptic forecasts come to fruition?

All these wonderful forecasters of economic catastrophe. It's not that easy; some quotes and some paraphrasing -

There are 2 classes of forecasters:

Those who don't know, that they don't know
- and those who know, they don't know.

JK Galbraith (I think).

And - The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

'Forecasts' -

* The millenium bug would crash everything, airplanes would suddenly fall out of the sky on the stroke of midnight 2000. And whatever we did it wouldn't be enough to prevent it some of it from happening. Nothing happened.

* They said Brexit would not happen.

* Donald Trump would not become president of the United States.

* Gold would be replaced by Cryptocurrencies.

* It was different this time and airlines would become good investments.

The trouble with forecasting is that no amount of sophistication can make up for the fact that all our knowledge - is about the past
- And yet all our decisions are about the future.

The thing that makes God laugh most - is people making plans.

Terry Smith mostly on how his fund became one of the most successful in Britain, by ignoring economic forecasts
- as they are no better than what they plainly are - guesses.

Oh - and remember Soros making a billion by betting short on the pound that we would crash out of the ERM? One billion he made!

Luck or forecasting?
Well, did you also catch the Soros news story after the referendum vote?
- He lost a similar amount by betting that Britain would vote Remain in the referendum, so went long on the pound.

Forecasting - okay read the absolute fools forecasts if you think they know the future.

Because they don't. No one does. History has shown that. They just plain don't know. Luck is the missing ingredient when they randomly do get a forecast correctly.

" As with the Nazis in Germany there has to be severe consequences for this country for what they have done. I’m really hoping a lot of our biggest companies will relocate to the EU and deliver a terrible wound from which Britain will never recover. "

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Eh?!?

Is that a hate crime? Or just the rantings of a sore loser?

I mean, have all who live in Britain just been threatened with a hate crime - for the crime of being British?

By prefacing the paragraph with the associations to Nazi Germany and stating quote: "severe consequences for this country for what they have done." Unquote.
- Does that not imply, that perceived actions in the UK are comparable to Nazi Germany - with all that entails of millions murdered in gas chambers etc., and thus "severe consequences" are thus due here in Britain?

How severe?

Economically? With: " ...and deliver a terrible wound from which Britain will never recover. "

Never recover?

Never?

Surely that is devilish wishful thinking and just pure hatred to everything British?

I believe the person who posted that is not wholly British as witnessed by his clear delight and "hope" to see in his fevered imagination the suffering of some 65million+ British people.

I'm not quite sure, but seem to recall a year or so back, that poster once said he had dual nationality and had lived abroad in another country. And if not that, had lived abroad anyway, I may be wrong on that, but do recall that particular poster saying he had lived outside of the UK for a period of time. If so, it's evident that he is anti-British and explains the British-hating diatribe of his post.

But - Is it a hate crime?

There is a Google link on how to report hate crimes to the police. Guidance from them would seem appropriate.

There's free speech - and then there's constant hatred towards everything British, which is racist.

I think the first step is to report that post to LSE and give them a chance to adjudicate first.

".. I will await your opinion on future chart information.. "
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Thanks Nige, but I would urge caution on leaning unduly on another person's opinion. Persevere with ADVFN if it suits your needs, and if not search out other sites until you feel comfortable with one of their offerrings.

No one person's viewpoint holds all the answers.