Member Info for Velo

" Good times and no doubt the upswing to the SP is certainly, in part, a consequence of the steadily positive newsflow regarding vaccines etc. "

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If not that, then it must be Karma.

Must say, Stoodio, although 70p has shown intra-month in both Sept and Oct, they both closed their respective months a lot lower in the lower half of the 60's.

So tonight's close was far in excess of what I had come to expect, even though as an intra-month price, the fat lady has yet to sing the month-end closure.

I have week 4 (next week) as the average for Novembers over the past 5 years as containing the probable lowest SP of the month (but not necessarily what the month will close on).

So unless the SP closes well down in the 60's by the end of this month then it's definitely Karma sending a message saying:

Hey! We decide prices, you mere mortals do not get a say in what the price will be, so Karma has upped the November price to ruin your forecasts and send you a message!
And furthermore, any more of this nonsense and we will send December prices through the rough, and so ruin your Jan / Feb forecasts! That'll teach you!

The Bowl -

Yes, breakout (the bowl formation completed) was indeed round about just under 50p, so that would mean a rise to circa over 90p+ or so, to complete,
"the prophesy" :) :)

(5p bowl base up to the 50p-ish lip)

" any reason for the seasonality? "

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Not aware of any, it's just been a semi-regular occurrence over the past 5 years.

Sept was perfection.
October closed just a little higher than was desired.

But if November which was always the stronger of the four 'flat' months this year, closes as it stands tonight then that would either be a rogue month (as every month has been at least once, in one of the five year periods) or this annual flatish-ness 'season' has now completely dissipated away.

There's statistics and as they say - damned statistics . . .

December is supposed to close flat, pretty much as it opens, but say as a wild example, this month closes at 100p and that holds into early December and eventually Dec closes at around 100p then the stats will still be correct - December closed as it opened - flat ! LOL!

- But try calling 100p "flat"! :)

Overall I've been expecting the year end to close, pretty much as September started, in the low 60's, but is tonight's SP a sign that the SP is going to blow all that out of the water this year?

Whatever its past, WSBN is without doubt, in a prominent bullish uptrend. That's unarguable.

From 2012 to 2016 just like infamous UKOG this SP was also in a ferocious long term bearish downtrend that didn't let up for years until 2016 - where after spending the bulk of that year in it's first-ever significant uptrend in it promptly descended into yet another long term downtrend that lasted until 2019, and then more or less sloped gently down, eventually flatlining (the ultimate floor) until Aug/Sept of this year where it commenced a bullish uptrend that hasn't yet let up.

- And during Aug and up to last week, left a trail of lovely buying opportunities via a series of readable peaks and troughs, which sadly appear to have come to an end last week. So any new "patterns" have yet to reveal themselves.

Was thinking that 11/12 is all that is on offer now, but a sudden appearance slightly below 11 maybe heralded that the indecision was about to resolve itself in reverting back to the previous patterns before recommencing the uptrend.

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I actually don't mind buying a much higher than here, on hard news of significant finds; but damned if I'm buying speculatively before that - without a pullback 'bargain' to tempt me.

The current mini peaks and troughs have dispersed, but that does not mean that something similar won't replace it. I can wait. Am in two rare metal stocks already and earning decent gains on them, if I miss this boat then I've got enough in one sector anyway.

Until significant amounts of physical gold is confirmed, I would only buy this one on my terms, as trading the perceived peaks and troughs is far preferable to blindly buying and holding in a speculative stock.

Each to their own.

And another good stonking good performance today. Interestingly today's volume was only just up to the line for the average - all the other blue days were all well above average volume; yet today was a really strong performance also.

Nothing shouting out anything but expect more of the same from the SP.
Yes, some indications that SP momentum is stretching the norm; but the SP carries on regardless. Extraordinary!

The overbought condition carries on climbing too (shouldn't really have mentioned it in previous posts - nor tonight, until it starts climbing down the other side of the peak).

So strong is it, I wouldn't be surprised if the Overbought is double or triple mountain-peaked in shape before it terminates and descends (signalling buyer exhaustion). Even then the SP might not behave as 'normal' (ie., badly) when that does eventually occur.

It is standing out visually as a 'tall poppy' - but strong. Demand is high. It's obvious it's not fighting to rise but doing so with ease. The most significant of all trend lines has now dropped to barely 116 @ 116.05 tonight, so fully expecting it to slide into 115's tomorrow. Another significant occasion. That's another surprising thing that's as rare as hen's teeth over the past near-5 years: The SP being a considerable distance above the significant 200 average period trend line. Incredible for BT to do that.

Once that significant 200 period average trend line flat-bases (I'm thinking maybe 110-ish and less) signifying it's done with the 5 year descent, BT should enter a new realm, and make things a whole lot more interesting - including if the SP descends out of overbought badly, IMO.

The name of the game for the SP is now to stay above the 200 period average. (That's all I'll be interested in "going forward" :)
Never thought I'd be saying that, so soon.

Before there's any hint of a breather, and red prices, the overbought condition will first have to start sliding down the other side of the mountain; and it's showing no signs of tiring at all.

I'm guesstimating the overbought condition's first checkpoint for a rest may be towards the end of this week (a fortnight in total) and if still strong then it's on to maybe a month's worth; whatever am leaving it to do it's thing without second guessing it - when it's ready to climb down from that overbought condition - it'll publicise so, for all to see beforehand, so shouldn't be anything terribly unpleasant coming out of the blue - without advance warning.

Several stocks unexpectedly also copycatting BT's current performance.

The strength of this rally is amazing. Who is behind this demand for BT stock?

Not had my desktop computer on today. Any idle posts have been from my phone. Ready to call it a day I go Awww wanted to change some chart parameters on my computer not on the phone or tablet. And at the same moment I thought Oooh haven't done a pivot point reading for BT in ages.

And then I thought Awww no, I've had enough. But couldn't resist and tired and too lazy I did the next best thing and went and looked on the free sites from the phone. Never take them too seriously as my personally calculated pivot points are just... well... just better and more accurate than any of the free sites :)

But the free sites are handy for a rough ballpark number. Well looked, but that's not what I'm posting for.
Logs on to Barchart (USA site) and lazily drifted past this against BT:

" The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal."

Aha!
Aha again.

Highly overbought.
Aha! But highly? Tsk! Language! Calm down Barchart.

Why is it if you hold a view on something it's easy to be persuaded are you nuts don't be so daft but if you see it in 'print' in a newspaper or elsewhere it suddenly feels better, truer?

I'm reading that and I'm like aha!!! Okay enough of the ABBA.

Not just me then. Wish I could have more confidence in my own opinions and not feel validated because the same thinking appears in 'print' half way around the world.

Take no notice of their 'trend reversal' forecast bit. That's just standard belts and braces as in 'beware'. Beware is not the same as imminent or likely. And I'm not prepared to say beware of a trend reversal so far at this stage.

There's 2 things I will be watching next week for clearer guidance. But I like how they say 'overbought'. But Heavily? ha! Well yes a bit but not terrifyingly so. It's still rising so yes it could become 'heavily'. And also there's several ways of backing out of overbought sometimes without penalty. You never know until it does.

And there's the major trend line v lose to hand that will have a say in this too. It might repel the SP or let it pass. One of those actions will be very very telling for the future. We'll see.

Oops -

" but that's a risky statement for me because the oversold might last 3 weeks or a month or more "

Oversold? - NOoo! = OVERBOUGHT! Sometimes I speak double-dutch.

Yes, I know that site. Haven't looked recently but they had 50p odd and 60p odd the other month around the time of 100/high 99's etc., as a forecast for 2023 etc., Bet it's gone now! LOL!

135? Well, who knows? I'm expecting a temporary retrace next week, but that's a risky statement for me because the oversold might last 3 weeks or a month or more - and if so then who knows for sure for 135 next week?

I also saw indecision in the shape of Friday's SP performance, so adds a wee bit to the overbought condition expiring by the end of next week, for no other reason that a fortnight fits in with average for those in BT's past history.

Another reason I could be wrong is that the overbought condition is STILL rising. Only supposed to gauge the end of those conditions, when it comes down the other side of the pyramid/mountain - and it's still rising!

So could go on for longer than a fortnight, and with it the SP higher still.

DONVANVLIET1 & Fleccy:

( This my attempt at shorter posts; but it ran on a bit) -

Don't really feel the need to respond as I think we're all more or less on the same page. Things are perking up for BT and the question on most minds now runs along the lines of - is this the start of the big push, or not?

Don'vt1:
" And if it does close lower than today’s closing price then I will readily hold my hands up and say I was wrong. "

Why? No need. Opinions are opinions, not sworn oaths of allegiances. Fine if it pays off, and fine if it doesn't. No fines or penalties dished out here :)

" this time things are different "
- Be careful with that sentence. Those must be the 5 most dangerous words in the investing world and are loaded with explosives and cyanide. You hear it regularly on the talking heads interviews. And historically nearly always comes back to haunt :)
Even though I think you might be on to something, I prefer an alternative wording:)

Fleccy:
"I don't believe trend lines and moving averages are relevant in the current trading environment "

Oh contraire sir! It's precisely then - that they are needed more than ever.
For instance in the same vein, I don't support the view that news per se is a medium or long term driver of stock prices. Unless earnings increases are used as 'news'.

" If all the news goes the right way, I can see BT easily breaking through £2 by the middle of next year. "

I think 2021 has the potential to be a v good year for stock markets but would prefer to see one last general market pullback before the year end to complete and confirm that assertion.

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Oh - PS.
" As I have already pointed out in an earlier posting I cannot recall a single instance when the SP has risen consecutively over a 5 day period in the past 5 years "

I agree with the general sentiments you're expressing there Don'vt1, but not quite so definitively, as here's something for your files:

There were 7 straight days of rises (11 days if a single red candlestick hadn't stuck it's oar in, at the beginning of that run) in April 2018.

And a further 2 periods of similar 5 day rise; one in August 2019 and the other in October 2019

I went straight to those periods to check for no other reason than they occurred in the only two other significant occasions, besides currently, of the SP breaching and breaking above the 200 period average!

The first was the prelude to Gavpants getting fired and the second two circa when May resigned and Johnson chosen as leader, with a final bullish gap-up after the election - followed by the terrible downtrend that led all the way to last week's performance.

Well I'm uncertain now. Was not expecting to see 57 for the SP at this stage. That's thrown me.

I have (successfully) in the past, in a sort of catch a falling knife way, got out of trouble in deeply crashing shares by buying the same amount of shares for a fraction of what I paid originally when the SP floored, thus doubling my holding for little cost, as soon as the low buy price, rose again, as it started rising up on the short term regular waves, I only sold the newly bought shares when I thought that wave was about to drop again, thus getting my entire money back and even withdrawing the small profit entailed - and hey presto, just as planned the average buying price of my original investment showing in my account had lowered hugely to a more manageable amount. (Did that in IMB and PHTM) and in this case at 57, it would not actually cost me that much at all, compared to the large amounts I shelled out in the past - and now thinking on doing the same again to BWNG - held in two accounts (ISA and SIPP).

Now just suppose say, a day before the cut off application date of 9th December, the SP has risen to 67p or any price above 57, It would be a slam dunk to buy if by the 23rd December the SP had held the price and I sold ASAP and repeated what has worked well in the past.

Just one flaw in my plan. Might not be the only one selling. What if, after the day we all receive our shares - the SP craters with huge selling or SP reduction for other complicated reasons?

Restrictions on selling, in place for the companies buying - none on selling, for us PI's.

I'll admit, I don't get this offer, and I'm still unsure if after the date we receive the shares, by hook or by crook, we get smacked in the teeth with a big drop in the SP.

Whatever, still, got plenty of time to rethink this through before the Dec 9th Deadline.

The SP has not been behaving consistently enough this week to discern a clear future direction for the SP.

My post, of looking out for a possible retrace perhaps to 7's but probably 8's, has evaporated as the peak and trough patterns that have repeated since August, dissolved away.
Either Wed or Thursday it was looking like 10's and 11's were as far as this pull-back would descend.
By today it was, for a time, looking like it had moved up a gear and now 12's/13's was the best on offer for either topping up, or potential new entrants like myself. But the close tonight throws it's indecisive hat back in the ring.

What I do lament, is the complete change of all the very readable peaks and troughs to date into something not yet discernable. The old reasons for expecting a pullback similar to previous weeks and months has gone, but I'm still in the camp that something could haul the SP back just a little more (not panic stations mode).

Not paying full whack for a speculative and volatile stock without the gift of a cheap entry to act as a buffer. Buying at the levels on screen tonight would be like having your bare rrrs hanging out a train window (not that I've ever done that). A bargain entry is what I seek. Might have to be some other time.

I feel such an opportunity is slipping away, but something else is in play, and it could develop and pull that SP back a little lower than most would expect, next week. If not, then I'm simply wrong on this issue.

Concludes > > >

. . . And subsequently will the SP now find the 200 trend line reverses polarity and repels the SP from falling below it (currently 116 tonight)?
- or as in a lot of cases will the SP fall a little below the 200 period trend price?

By how far will determine the likely future direction. No more than single pence and the bull run is still on, but by a lot and it's likely a reversal. The good news is, the 200 trend line is dropping rapidly of its own violation. Pretty soon it will run out of gas, do a handbrake turn, and turn hunter - and the SP will become prey - and then it's game on for the rest of the SP's life to stay one step ahead.

It can be done (eg., FAANG stocks) but only the best of the best can pull it off; and those that do, usually all end up with a lofty P/E as it becomes a favoured stock with a premium SP to match. Which will it be - and is it all too soon?

I personally am plumping for a rematch, for no other reason - that, that's the norm. Another analysts forecast is due again before this month is out, so it could come in handy if it continues to improve forecasts positively.

Summary:

1) Overbought condition to dissolve by this time next week.

2) Then SP gets magnetically reeled in, drawn back towards the 200 period trend; watch whether it ends up residing below or above the 200 - and by how much.

As the major trend line is relentlessly dropping it's actually an ally (for now) in all this for the SP, by helping keep the SP above it.

Both 1 & 2 are temporary - not the end of the world. Zig-zagging and all that.

This may ramble on over a page or two, as want to ruminate on what will likely occur next week.

123p! Great perfromance to end a terrific week, but now . . .

I'll be watching 2 things closely - the overbought condition and the powerful 200 period trend line.

Been doing some comparisons to BT's own characteristics whilst in overbought condition to try and ascertain the viability of this rally (notice I didn't call it a 'mini' rally :)

Went back 5 years max to keep within this downtrend period and overbought conditions from their birth to termination appear to average 2 weeks, varying from a few days to one month, but mostly a fortnight as a rough visual rule of thumb.

Why am I bothering?
Because I still believe there will be consequences for hopping over the most important of all long term trend lines without so much as a look back. Experience shows there's usually a pay the piper moment sooner or later.

And if so, the two (overbought + and the 200 period trend line) may conspire to act in unison to pull back the SP (temporarily of course). It's not a oh-god-sell-everything, moment but in an uptrending stock they can be more of an, on-offer, buying-in opportunity - but only in an uptrend.

On the other hand, it could be the start of a complete reversal and back to same old, same old. That's why I'd like to know which cracks first, of the two.

First in case you missed it - the heavily descending major trend line for BT has fallen through 117 and currently lies in the 116's. Bravo to BT for resting so far ahead of it - on the first encounter.

Who'd have thought BT could deliver a sucker punch to the mightiest of all trend lines? I'd no sooner posted of the SP lazily lying there allowing the 200 major period trend line to descend upon it, whereas the market confers kudos to a stock that attempts to rise and fight the 200 period average mano-to-mano head on, than BT gets up off the canvas and goes all Rocky Bilbao and belts the 200 period right in the chops!

You can be sure BT achieving dominance over such a major encounter has not gone on unnoticed by the big II's and funds algo's. In fact they are the reason for this rally, and I expect to read of one major fund personality to come forward and in a media interview, reveal BT is now a recent addition holding in one of their funds - because it is they, not PI's who are moving this price.

As this is the first week completed of overbought condition initial thoughts are that by the end of next week the SP could be descending pulling back out of it. The main point will be: by a small amount - or a lot?

And subsequently will the SP now find the 200 trend line reverses polarity and repels the SP from falling below it (currently 116)
- or as in a lot of cases will the SP fall a little below the 200 period trend price?

Continues > > >

Tsk! It's reappeared. Getting weird now, this LSE site.

Fleccy, I replied with a short post to your correct assumption that yes, I do use a charting software package with live prices, but the post seems to have disappeared now.

See if the same happens with this post.

" I assume you use a subscription service, because you're streaming the live prices into trading software? Otherwise why don't you just use the free Google Finance live prices? Which are updated by a simple screen refresh. "

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Correct Fleccy, I use professional grade charting software with all the bells and whistles, and coding (Stockcharts.com) so the live prices cheap rate, if one is already a subscriber, is almost secondary, but I needed it for accurate intraday prices particularly trading the DOW like today.

More a Yahoo finance man than Google finance, when push comes to shove. But rarely use either as have everything I need well sorted.

Got a fright from IG the other day, a new little thing in the admin box of IG said I'd leveraged £9.5m of their funds for use in my spreadbetting.

Rubbish of course, but then it said.... since 2018.

What? Okay, Hmm, never used that much leverage surely to god? Risk factor well out of control if true.

LOL Shades of Nick Nick Leeson, the rogue trader who brought down Barings bank.
£9m+ my rrrss!

Thanks Fleccy - I get my live prices from the USA (live that is, bar 15 seconds) for the trip to over there and back to the UK and hence on to my computers (£7.98 per month after exchange rates - cheaper than the UK despite a trip across the Atlantic Ocean and back to my kitchen table. It's usually always correct as on this occasion - but I always, self doubt when prices differ from site to site dramatically. Normally they all tie-in together, but LSE is wobbly these days. I hate the discrepancies. The business we're in demands basic accurate price reporting.

Concludes:

. . . Can't offer an opinion until both the major trend line effect upon the SP - AND the overbought demise wade in with their effect.

Until then all is bullish while most indicators are up for continuance - except for the two mentioned above.

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BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH! - (New)
-
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish - very much so.
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

Zico - when I ever post a full house of all trend lines BULLISH - (ultra short term is almost irrelevant except as a heads-up function) then the answer is yes to every single guesstimate of everyone's favourite price target. Just get the full house first before shouting Bingo!

Hi Zico72,

Thanks for your reply. I take it your question was directed at me rather than an open question -

" Do you think this is the beginning of it's rise to it's real value of between 180p and 200p..? "

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Honestly, I couldn't say one way or the other (and that's if I knew) at least UNTIL this significant trend line area is resolved.

I'm basically a trend follower, so don't sweat on 'target prices' but follow a trend until it peters out.

I think it's the posts surrounding the 117 originating from my initial post responding to others thinking of 130, that perhaps persuades you I might know; but I don't.

If you recall I didn't actually 'forecast' 117 but posted the SP would have to beat that price before consideration could be given to anything higher. On the day the SP appeared to close on 117 here on LSE, but in after hours trading the price actually closed at 119.
Significant in its own right, the fact that it's gone on to 124-ish is mouth agape time, as contrary to my assertion that 117 would present a problem - the SP has locked up the major trend line in jail, when it was at 117, thrown away the key and gone off on a hike whistling merrily as it goes!

(PS. 117 is now down to 116 already, as of last night - for that major period trend line).

But I'm still holding to that 200 period trend line as a problem area, not the price, as it is now lower at 116. Which makes the current 124-ish the more extraordinary! The overbought condition is even deeper in enemy territory now so will shortly go and try and measure the life spans of BT's previous overboughts to suggest an exit date for that to occur.

I expected the SP to initially close nearer to THE most significant of all major long term trend lines, not close on it! (as initial LSE forum closing price suggested) least of all close higher than it!

BT? C'mon near 5 years has dispelled that notion ever occurring - but it has. So questions naturally arise - is this it? Is this the big turning point? Long in the tooth investors of many a year will recognise we have been here before on numerous mini rallies - all of which failed to live on.

This IS significant though, but the water is muddy. Did the SP explode on bullish increased new, net profit forecasts combined with BT announcing positive performance expected for this year?
Or was it Biden euphoria and vaccine announcements? Those are the muddy waters.

Political euphoria will die down. Then we'll see what price does.
Vaccine triumphs and delays may impact the markets - built will it affect BT?

If negative political and vaccine issues don't affect the price then that leaves trading forecasts as the driver. Too muddy to be certain.

But what will trump all (pun unintended) is a resolving of this major trend line v the SP and the overbought condition all resolving.

Can't offer an opinion until both the major trend line effect upon the SP - AND the overbought demise wade in with t

Sold out my entire holding this morning, profitably. Accepted just over 150p.

Intend buying back for the £££entire amount achieved at a much lower SP later on in near future.

- Risky but have my reasons.