Member Info for Velo

Oops typo!

Tsk! A nought fell off the end of my keyboard.

- "Approx $160,00" should of course have read: - Approx $160,000

Sungam @ "Whats the cash position of Wishbone?"

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- Approx $160,00 (TTM method of forward calculation) which is well up from the close of the last year-end accounts, but at the lower end of the aggregate of the last half dozen years or so.

No net debt though, I see; the opposite in fact - it's in surplus! By the same amount as cash on hand.

Not bad, but as you know, WSBN like a lot of tiddler gold stocks and has yet to produce a profit. So ALL holders here, must by definition be speculators.

Gold + Speculating? Kinda fits well :)

" i just find it interesting how similar patterns seem to crop up from time to time.. its fun to guess and watch it all happen.. "

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Ha! That's how "it" starts.
You're well on your way to adding chartism to your arsenal of investing tools :)

Patience is the key; as patience is not the sole prerogative of long term investors/Warren Buffetts, alone.

I'm currently only 10% speculatively interested in this stock; as only aware of it today. Will be some time before I actually buy, as at this sudden spike-price it's a definite no for me - currently.

But I can guesstimate that I will buy when the conditions are more favourable to my personal strategies.

Yes normbeef, quite right - there have been 4 clear signals to enter this stock since August (3 defo's, 1 a bit more iffy; but 4 opportunities all told) now I've had a quick looksee using the wonderful gift of hindsight after your heads-up alert (I know nothing about this stock).

I have my own universal strategy/ies for identifying the 5th next available oppourtunity if,/should/when it occurs, which gives plenty of time to bone up on this stock beforehand (I need to up my game and introduce more risk into my portfolios.)

Initially, I wouldn't be interested oin buying at this high at all. But then again, the thing about shorter term patterns is that by the time it becomes obvious is just abpout the time it dissolves away :)

Thanks for that Youtube interview link, Daveri007.

Never heard of Rick Rule before today so that video revealed a charismatic speaker.
Not surprised he does a lot of speaking events besides his regular job.

" All politicians do is take your savings and give it to spenders."

" The hypocrisy of when a government prints money is called by the govt policy name of Quantitive Easing, but if we mere mortals did it, it’s called counterfeiting."

" More to the point, he doesn’t care about Biden’s or Trump’s policies. They call them different names but the result from either party is more artificial money inflating the financial system, which is overwhelmingly good for gold. "

Could hardly believe it - the Daily Express!
Of all the media outlets - it printed the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about BT's H1 performance today.

Titled:

BUOYANT BT LIFTS ITS PROFIT TARGETS.
" BT has improved its profit outlook for the current financial year as it hailed a strong operating performance despite the impact of the pandemic . . ."

and so it continued in the same vein -

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/daily-express/20201030/282445646560632

Pretty certain the analysts will now revise net profit upwards at the next update circa approx 13th Nov.

Think they'll only increase it in small corrections to save face. So will be looking to see this year's net profit forecast increased from £1.4bn to £1.5bn on the 13th.

- Then increased to £1.6bn at the next update and if they dare, £1.7bn at the update after that; thus matching last year's result!

I also think they'll increase the future years too, as BT is on course to likely exceed all 3 future forecast years in this very financial year alone!

Surely that should have the potential to light a modest fire under market sentiment?

Can't say the same about revenue though. That's another story, and no doubt will act as a drag anchor.

Not able to post fully (lack of time) as not back home until middle of next week so a late quickie note on net profit and revenue result.

The H1 net profit achieved by BT demolished the analysts forecasts.
SP volatility may be further in store as I don't think it's yet sunk in that if the H1 performance is replicated to the year end, then the outstanding years to come as forecast by the analysts will have to be binned and thus by increasing their own forecasts that should in turn affect sentiment. And it's sentiment that drives SP perceptions.

Net profit came in at £856m
The analysts forecast was for £738m - on the nose!

Double H1's £856m for the year end, and you can see not only will that decimate the analysts CURRENT full year  forecast of only £1.4bn net profit - but also match and or exceed the next 2 years which analysts forecast as being
£1.6bn+ odd, for each of those future years - after the current year ends.

- In fact a doubling of H1's net profit not only destroys the analysts future forecasts (which their clients refer to and/or depend on) but is looking likely to match last year's ACTUAL net profit achieved of £1.7bn! Or come within spitting distance of it, not to mention maybe increase on it, and therefore to beat the hell out of future years forecasts - if left stanfing by the analysts as is.

About the 13th November should reveal by how much the analysts ( if they are sensible) increase their forecasts by, - because they've been caught with their pants down on net profit!

No two ways about it.

Revenue is a different kettle of fish (analysts spot on, with revenue) and BT must find a way of halting the relentless non stop decline in revenue and in doing so, without attracting accusations of monopolistic abuse of power by critics.

If revenue was similar in performance to net profit there would have been no catching the SP today.

All I've got time for.
Can back everything up if required, with further data when I return home to my desktop files next week but make no mistake the analysts reputation is on the line if they continue as is, and leave their current net profit forecasts standing.

They have to correct themselves in the next update and once they publish their first increases in years it should have an effect on sentiment. . . and thus the SP ( unless it is all overshadowed by the declining revenue?)

" Based on Velo's expected results below......

Revenue expected £10,642B.......... Actual £10,590B......... Missed by £52M
Profit expected £738M................... Actual £1,062B........... Beat by £324M

WOW profit beat by £324M and the share price goes down. "

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Whoa there Nige!
Net profit of over £1b (£1,068m) is from last year.

- This year's H1 is £856m and thus yes it beats the market's expectations of £738m which is an exact amount to beat and not an avareging as mean and median Q2 forecasts were identical, but not by that £300m+ but by a damn serious amount anyway. Well done BT!

No time to post further but will late tonight. The good news is that the full year net profit is now on course to beat both of the next 2 years net profit. It's blown the analysts forecasts for future years (and this year's) net profit out of the water!

Which means the analysts are compelled to INCREASE the net profit forecasts at the very next updates - exactly what's been needed, an increase in analysts forecasts. Only thing is not for revenue. Revenue has more or less come in as forecast as the forecast is an amelioration of median and mean average forecasts of all the analysts.

More time later tonight.

(Far from home currently, so little time free; should have put some figures together on 'pre tax' profits, but ran out of time before hitting the road).

Posted the below last week, but here's a quick reminder before tomorrow's reveal of both the top line and the bottom line which BT must come in no lower than, on Thursday:

H1 Revenue analysts forecast to be @ circa £10.642b
- and thus expected by the analysts to be down from last year's actual of £11,413b for H1.

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H1 Net Profit forecast as expected by analysts @ a shockingly low £738m
- down from H1 achieved last year of £1.068bn.

It's the net profit forecast I'm having a v hard time trying to accept.

For Q1, BT smashed and bettered the analysts net profit forecast but, predicitably, the media focused on it still being down on the previous year anyway.

Whatever it comes out at on Thursday, this current year should be the ultimate lowest point for net profit with both next year and the year after, forecast by the same analysts, to show an increase in net profit for both those years.

£290m is the Q2 net profit forecast in isolation, and it's that ridiculously low forecast amount, that is added to Q1 actual that makes an horrendously low H1 forecast of £738m net profit. (Over £1bn last year! )

A real low point if BT performs as low as that - which I think they won't, as demonstrated by BT's Q1 net profit performance.

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The media will be interested in pre tax profit.
They usually ignore net profit. But holders shouldn't.

To recap:
1) Top line:
Revenue must not come in less than £10.6bn.

2) Bottom line:
Net Profit under any circumstances whatsoever must NOT be allowed to come in under £738m. Not a single penny below!!

If the SP closes the day, similar or better to where it is now (midday) (1355+) then that to me, would be the first intraday resistance just about breached and set the SP up nicely to react to any positive sentiment floating about leading up to capitalise on any upbeat trading updates later in the week.

Don't want it falling/closing too far away from 1350's today.

Well, that was a good performance today!

Not enough to call it, but good enough for further examination:

At 1343, it was just enough to sit outside, right on the doorstep of the first intraday resistance, to close the day.
- but that intraday high of mid 1350's went one better by cleanly hurdling over that initial resistance, but came unstuck by getting as far as snuggling up to the underside of the second intraday resistance only, and after an afternoon-long battle, conceded to the bears, and was batted back down.

Had it not done so, and held, closing the day on that mid 1350's, it would have been as close a guarantee as it's possible to get that the floor was likely in, and Monday, barring an earthquake, would have been a shoehorn fit for another bullish performance.

However, closing just on the underside of the first resistance by day's end, was all it was to be. Sadly, none of the intraday resistances were breached by close.

Still a good performance none the less, but not throw a party time, just yet.

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. . . And so, into MONDAY :

Monday, for further bullish certainty (of the floor being regarded as in, with Thursday's intraday in the 1320's) needs to close on or above the mid 1350's as an absolute minimum!

But should the SP close on or below the v low 1330's then it's been a false rally today, and as the saying goes, it ain't over until the fat lady sings, and the SP would still be in the clutches of the bears.

All above IMO only.

Monday?? WTF? Friday! - FRIDAY!!! All figures are for Friday.

Please delete all references to Monday, should be for Friday. Tsk!

Was expecting far worse lower supports after the week's close, but 1300 is still far away just out of reach on the extreme supports.

Initial support that I hope the SP closes no lower than on Monday is: lower 1320's

If it's another bad day then I don't see it progressing much further than 1313's

And it would take a helluva shunt to get it to 1300 as the third support is just below 1300 at low 1290's.

.

Safety, and the end of this particular bear drop in the SP lies just barely 10p away at mid 1340's. Close at mid 1340's on Monday - and all is saved, for now.

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It should be noted that:

A)
The SP closed just fractionally inside oversold territory. That's an ominous indication that seller exhaustion is not too far away. Let it deepen and rising out of oversold before calling it. I've checked back years, and unbelievably oversolds in GSK are not a common occurrence. Mostly they are small pinpricks and zap! - seller exhaustion. So if this follows historic similarity, redemption is close to hand.

B)
The long term trend is undisturbed by these medium and shorter term down-waves. It's still a longer term buy, IMO.
The only debate is; will this recover before 1300 is ever reached, or after it gets breached? As signs of seller exhaustion are already showing up on the relative strength index I think 1300 stands every chance of seeing off the bears on Monday.

All IMO only of course.

" We appear to have cut through the levels you mentioned?"
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Yes, indeed!
- Fatprofits, a nice opportunity to clear my conscience:

I was all set to update on the supports after I had this morning's opening price (for better accuracy) this morning, but it was 9:00am already so tossed it all aside, as shocked, I'd only be posting of terribly low potential supports that were already occurring before my eyes on screen.

I had some indications beforehand, which I will expand on, but emotionally didn't believe it would transpire as so,
which just shows - trust strategy - not one's emotions.

First off, things although things look dire for the 1300 barrier on Monday, I don't think it will fall on Monday, but before that (separate post on that) back to last night:

I initially had 139 as the initial intraday support of the day based on 3 differing formulae of guru's from yesteryear (from the pre-digital age of 'the pit' for pivot points) I use all 3 and obtain an average of the 3.

And this is where I let emotion hold sway.
I just couldn't believe that 1350's AND 1340's had been 100% totally obliterated in the calcs, so I rounded up that 139 to 140 to remove mention of the 1330's - for emotional "reasonableness" as I didn't believe it all possible, and there must be an error - even after checking the free sites for comparisons but they were as usual, no help at all.

It troubled me, so was about to write another post correcting the 140 back to 139 but someone else posted straight after and I let it slide, as it was getting late
- but I was still bothered by that, so knowing that the opening price of the day gives a finer "guesstimate" and is part of the calcs, I thought I'd update and correct it all first thing in the morning, as it wouldn't alter that much - or so I thought.

When I inputted the opening price my jaw dropped in shock - and then in shock at the screen price!

The new supports were coming out as 1336 for the first support, 1326 for the second support and still 1290's showing as a possible for today as the third support. No 1350's or 1340's anywhere in sight. My initial reaction was one of: this is rubbish, but checking the screen live prices - it was already happening in front of me!

On the one hand an optimist could say well at least the SP closed in the vicinity of the first support it encountered, but experience tells me it's always a bad sign to set up camp up, around a support point just as it's a positive to camp up around a resistance point which in this case was low 1370's.

Will post separately what the likely resting places might be on Monday, in the next post.

Fleccy, I will get on that BT Orient Express luxury special train at the first available station it stops at - once it gives off the confirmed bullish, long term signals.

Which means, to achieve that long term (if this truly is the bottom) that my station is many, many, pence seriously higher than you see here currently.

I don't fret over that. I accept it.

I keep gambling for my miners; both of which I'm making a packet on, at the moment (GGP & SLP).

But then again, they both did have a good signals box junction, giving me a green GO light :)

Yes, I agree about not hoping what you wish for TigerBTTail, lest the desired effect brings additional concerns.

So stop reading right here, because . . . . .

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Been reviewing that unexpected drop during recovery after the March crash, that later ended in early July.
I was happy enough topping-up at 42, and mission accomplished with my average now at 49p, I tied my horse at the saloon bar, horse rail, happy as Larry, and mosied on in, to celebrate at the bar, yup!

Only in retrospection did I later lament not adding at either 41, 40,39,38 or 37 LOL!

It was the considerable exceeding down below of the long term 200 period average that concerned me, finally with the SP halting at 37.
It was then after the very, very real phenomenon of 'mean reversion' completed, that the SP then took off, never looking back. It's now at it's widest from the 200 day period average since this 5/6 year uptrend began!

So, separate to my 'seasonal' thingy, there's an additional 'concern' - mean reversion.

The 200 day period average is currently way, way, down there at 49 and slowing a tiny amount due to calm September and so far, calm October. In other words, mean reversion based on pure mathematics has to occur sooner or later; either by the SP remaining calm and the 200 average coming up to it, or the SP taking a dive southwards. Historically the SP has 100% headed down to meet it.

Throughout the past near 6 years magnificent bullish uptrend, the SP has periodically soared far above the meaningful 200 day period average, only for the SP to revert deliriously back down to the mean average - occurring only
after the SP is at its widest high (or widest low) away from the 200 average.

Well right now, and only clocking it this morning I've taken everything off logarithmic scale and all sorts - and still the same - the distance between the current SP and the 200 day period average is at the widest ever, over that entire, near 6 year period. Something has to give!

- Mean reversion visit?

If so, I prefer to get it over and done with now, anytime between now and Dec 31st is acceptable to me, before we get into the new year, as I don't want it messing with sentiment then.

" Looks like we have said goodbye to 60p. I was hoping for one last top-up at sub 60 but I don't think we'll see that again, unless the basket tanks, or we get a 10p special dividend "

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I think it's fair to say most on here are of the same mind on those sentiments. I have had a 57p computer limit-buy in place and still to run to the year end, but as above; not confident of knabbing that. Plus that limit buy order is only one of several top-up's I'm seeking - before the year end.

XD day next week, so the final 2 days of the week to close the month of October may over react against the SP, as some stocks don't equate equally to the dividend amount during XP period.
Also, not ruling out that 'bargain' condition just yet as this sudden rise could be related to those adding or getting in purely in advance of the Divi qualification. Therefore, not yet convinced that this rise will sustain throughout the next 2 months after October completes.

Don't have to top-up, but will do so as nothing on earth, bar the reality of events on the day, will persuade me against the notion that SLP will enjoy a strong bullish performance in the early months of next year.

Would rather bag more at a decent discount between now and the year end, but if it's to be 60's or more by the year's end, then so be it.

The 'traditional' market lore rule-of-thumb to the above question is usually:

A)
Sell before a trading update, when you've already decided to take profits anyway, to protect those profits achieved, in case the trading update disappoints, as many sell on good results regardless, affecting the SP.

B)
Only ever buy before a trading update, if incontrovertible evidence the company is about to reveal a significant increase in trading results.

- However the consensus of analysts for BT are forecasting the most dire results to date, this Q2 next Thursday, so the market is not expecting an upbeat result from BT.
And if results turn out as analyst forecast, then it's likely not to enhance the SP.
So will BT upset the applecart and beat those market forecasts? Only next Thursday will tell; as no one knows for sure.

The main question should not be: is it better to buy or sell before a trading update - but what is the long term predominant trend in BT?
Determine what sentiment is saying vis-à-vis the SP - long term, and that's your default safety position to adhere to.

So, what is the predominant longer term trend - bullish or bearish? Answer correctly and that's your answer. Gambling on bottoms and tops although enjoyable if you get it right, is just that - gambling.

The balance sheet metrics are screaming undervalued - loudly.
Market sentiment towards the SP has for years and is currently, saying the opposite.

My preferred route? Always, always, follow the long term, predominant trend - whatever it happens to be.

Downside to trend following? (And it's not everyone's cup of tea)
- You miss the absolute bottoms and absolute tops; but enjoy the meat in the middle.

( For fun only, remember )

Question:
The SP dropping further tomorrow - or turning up for a change?

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Calculate my own pivot points when the mood takes me, and here's my thoughts for tomorrow Friday (daily pivot points have a lifespan of one day only; they change every day) -

1) Close the day in the high 1370's (or better) and the SP is leaning towards Monday being a bullish day.

2) Close the day on 1340 (or worse) then it's leaning towards Monday being a continuation of bearishness.

- (Can hardly believe first support is that low, as my personal preference is for the floor to be somewhere in the mid 1340's as the ultimate floor)

3) And the actual pivot point is coming out in the mid 1360's,
- So if the SP closes in that area, it's market indecisiveness going into Monday.

" Given the current share price that's like looking up at Everest from ground level!"

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Ha ha!
Knew I should have refrained from 'forecasting - it's not my way. Honestly. LOL!
- As I prefer to trend follow and not dictate terms to the market, by standing aside from the oncoming train, letting it do it's thing.

Just reviewed that £20 post, and a small amendement:
and am now moving that £20 to spring of the following year - 2022,
with just under £20 (say £19.50-ish) occurring by year end of next year, 2021.

Whatever the SP low finishes at by October month close next week, I'm not expecting the SP to deepen lower in the months that follow on, but instead I'm thinking, each month will close slightly higher up than October does, but all months to at least display such volatility that October's lows will near enough receive an intraday visit each month until the commencement of the new year.

That's what I 'feel', based on looking back into GSK's history
but you know what the fast talking small print advert says about past performance repeating in the future, don't you? :)