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Bit dropped off the end -

. . . December is coming up as more boringness in store for SLP so this flat as a kipper season isn't done with you yet.

But oh my; get set for the new year! :) :)
Not taking any prisoners on this - it's go-go time for SLP in January and February.

On a separate note 2021 may bring unexpected decent performance in general for most markets, IMO.

Hi Stoodio,

Funny that, was gearing up to post an update tonight :) on the 'Kipper Season' progress, but been busy most days to 9pm.

Anything changed?
Nope SLP strong as hell; despite it being the (historically) flattish months season (more on that in a mo')
In fact the SP has me cursing! It just refuses to let me have a cheap top-up price. It's as if the market is saying:
' We know SLP is undervalued, and that's how we like it, but we're not stupid - we're not giving it away for nuthin'! For you Velo NO CHEAP TOP-UP, now pay up!'

Awww!

Yep, been nashing my teeth; It won't offer anyone a cheapo price in the high 50's (not topping up in the 60's as still got December to go) before that's the end of this 'season' and the fireworks kick off with decent rises in Jan& Feb next year - (IMO) and thus absolutely no chance of cheap prices after this Sept-Dec period concludes.

Also, a couple of lines from a post or two below that touch on what I wanted to post.

" Well it's the first time this has closed above 70p"
-Yes! I believe so, and yes it is a v good sign.

" We’ve been trading In this range for months now, there should be excellant support in the mid 60s "

- Yes, the flat as a kipper season - and I expect the concluding month, December to be similar.

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November is the strongest of the 4 months (historically) but have to admit a close on 71 is higher than expectations - and all indicators are uber bullish for more.
But I WAS/am expecting a close of circa 65/66 (seasonal) which in itself is 2 or 3p above my initial thoughts at the outset when compiling this back in August. I was sure the v low 60's would prevail throughout all months.

September open and closed the month at 62/62+ a nice 1.2%x decline - perfectly in line with expectations.

October open and closed 60/64 which was a bit above expectations for a 6% increase! Which I have to admit is a fail. Expectations were for lower but still commencing with a "6".

November is currently a stonking 11% up on the month. But as it's intra-month it doesn't count as expecting closer to 2.6% gain on latest figures so 65/66 close by end of November.
We'll see as all indicators are screaming their head off for higher.

70 has shown up in each month so far but never held, and tonight's 71 must be an all time high on any scale! Still, sticking to my guns and doing a Donald Trump by not admitting defeat until the month closes. Even if it closes 65/66 I will still have a long face as my high 50's entry moves further away.

PS. Nowhere is a dip to high 50's forecast by any indicator whatsoever - it's my selfish personal ambition.

There's one last pull back left before Dec 31st IMO, that will be the only chance. Computer buy limit orders are already set, but am growing increasingly doubtful that high 50's will ever be seen again - it's gone with the wind!

December is coming up as more boringness in store for SLP so this flat as a kipper season

" Not that much??? ...I'll take 1.3% in a qtr all day long - "

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Quite right riskingit. I stand corrected :)

I was still in almost thinking-aloud mode and weighing up buying to get the divi or standing by my decision to buy after the XD date, should everything come together by this month-end.

"...We were told there would be bad news about BT stock, because some of the data was being hidden or held back...."

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Zico - The second part of your sentence:
" .... because some of the data was being hidden or held back...."

That's 100% true - I posted not only was it unusual to only publish a titbit of the forecast but I'd never ever seen that done before - deliberately publish an incomplete forecast.

So what? I didn't speculate on why they did that, in order to keep post length manageable.

It's the first part of your sentence that prevented you from buying, namely:

" We were told there would be bad news about BT stock "

I didn't speculate that the incomplete data was bad news, only that the revenue was slightly down but only by small amounts, but left enough to speculate that they already knew the full forecast as they'd published the forecast EPS, the earnings per share, from which all you have to do is multiply that pence per share amount by the total shares in circulation and you'd arrive at the net profit.
I openly speculated that I expected the rest of the report one day this week, or by the weekend latest.

As I reported - the missing data came out on Monday - and in my opinion showed improvements
- why then, now you knew it wasn't bad news after all, didn't you buy on Tuesday as you had plenty of time on Tuesday to do so?

I posted the missing data on Monday evening I think, might even have been during the day, so come on - as it was "good news" why didn't you complete your buy first thing Tuesday morning, after receiving as pretty much a gold plated guarantee of good news?

Consider;
on Friday the SP opened at 103 and closed at 100.
on Monday it opened at 101 and closed at 105.
On Tuesday it opened at 106 and dropped to 104 intraday before closing in after hours trading updates at 119

So Tuesday (the day after I posted the missing "good news" forecast data) meant that you could have bought first thing Tuesday morning for 106, but during the day, could have bought even lower intraday for 104.

Was it greed and that measly 6p to 4p range above Friday's close that put you off buying?
- You wanted to buy, you'd received good news, so why didn't you complete your buy? Because you saw the 119p close and green greed descended and you thought someone is to blame for you missing out on that huge one day rise?

Also. Fleccy raises a good point, I don't believe I did issue a warning, just despaired a bit at the missing data on Saturday, was it because one of the analysts wanted to change an error over the weekend? Who knows but send out incomplete forecast results, they did!

I left speculation wide open, so wasn't going to speculate on the earnings by using the EPS they provided to reverse engineer a figure (subsequently Fleccy did a top job in coming up with an accurate figure with the scant data they did provide).

Complaint dismissed, you MUST improve your DYOR side of things.

From that M/Fool link below: Stand out sentences that suggest maybe a sea-change in media sentiment in further reporting, maybe?

"... BT has also upgraded its profit guidance for the year and is benefiting from the vaccine boost being felt across the market. "

" ... Since then, the company has published a solid set of half-year results and reiterated its commitment to restart dividend payments next year. With a 6.6% yield on offer, I’m thinking about buying it. "

" ... I’m pleased by this news . . ."

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With last weekend confirming the removal of Donald Trump, and the vaccine announcement and the apparent rotation out of both tech and growth stocks in the US - and into value stocks, combined with early media reports that now acknowledge profits are a big positive with BT - and not as bad as all the reporting at the H1 publication would have you believe - it's almost akin to a Black Swan event what with several positive events converging on the scene simultaneously for BT.

I mean, just a little more than a week or so ago, in media reviews of the H1 results, did you read anywhere of:

" Since then, the company has published a solid set of half-year results " - as in that latest review? Solid?

- Yes, fairweather reviews that change with the herd, but if other reviews yet to come, are similar, it all adds to sentiment change blowing through BT appraisals, and thus - the SP.

" Vela it broke your 1470p zone today !!! "

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Yep, I'm well pleased with that F/Jack.

I have a particular strategy for this stock and after messing up my entry I'm pleased I corrected myself, even though leaving everything as was, I'd have some profit to show.
(With my rare metals and miners stocks, yes I bottom-feed - but not here).

I've always maintained this is in a long term uptrend despite the ferocious retraces and pull backs - using monthly prices to manage this stock with little management.

I have 2 concerns:

If this closes the month below 1470 I'm forced by my self imposed strategy to wait until the next month or even longer until the prior month is breached. It's been 5 months of non-stop red bearish declining closes each month as this is the first month to show as currently blue against those prior 5 months.

A beautiful sight to see on the charts.

I just need it to CLOSE on anything above 1470 by the "month end" to make my move.

If it fails to do that, it's telling us something, and the reason I went for safety in ignoring 1280's.
Once aboard, slightly different tactics will then enable me to pick up such a 1280 type of scenario, once the recontinuance of the decades-old uptrend was healthily seen to be back in force, by one and all.

2nd concern is that - if not only does this month close above 1470 but goes steaming past well into £15++ or higher!

That would induce ill-discipline in myself.

I think I can hold out by lashing myself to the ship's mast as we pass the island of the siren calling maidens. Not long to go now, to be free of my odyssey.

The next quarter - Q3
=================

PS.
Had time to examine the first Q3 forecast, and although I ignored it for yesterday, it's way, way, too low when compared to Q1 & Q2
- ESPECIALLY as the last trading update publicly promised further positive progress. But will leave what I think 'they' will increase it further too (additional triple figure millions) until another day.

Thanks for the feedback all, saw it earlier but busy trading the DOW since 2:30pm ('trying' to earn an income). Tough, I'm rigor-mortised with fear. Phew! Left it before close; had enough, it's too ultra choppy today.
And a special thanks to Fleccy for keeping me on my toes there, LOL! Would that be one cherry on top sir, or two? Tee hee!

117 close here on LSE, and 119 on my own stuff from the US, and 119 on Yahoo finance.

117 close all in one leap was bad enough but worse, it's looking like everywhere else is quoting 119 close. Yikes. Too much, too fast, and too dangerous making that leap to breach the most important trend line all in one day on the first attempt, from a distance a Harlem basketball player would win an award for.
I'd have preferred 3p per day or so advance for safety - But this? It's propelled the SP up into the foothills of overbought condition, something that's not been seen since late last year, and at 119 it's smashed right through the 200 period average from a huge distance start this morning.

The 200 period breached in one go from all that distance back? Not bl@@dy likely! There will be consequences. Was it you lot? :)
Come on fess up - have you all been buying today and panicked the SP into an uphill stampede? :) Who dunnit?

Too many, too fast all at once, it's now inside the overbought condition. So there's that to deal with now. When you look at today's price action on screen, it's historic - took it back 3 years, then 5 years and all the way back to 20 years - and on to monthly time spans - and in all instances you can clearly see today's single advance at every time span juncture. With a pair of binoculars it's likely you'd still see it from the moon.

You can actually count on one hand (not exaggerating now) the number of occasions that the SP has closed above the 200 period average over the past 5 years!

Maybe Income Fund II's desperate for reliable dividend payers thought: net profit adjusted to increase even further for years to come, and reinstated dividend is therfore likely to be reliable - and piled in today?
And there's nothing wrong with the balance sheet, to add to that decision.
Dunno.

But it does takes institutions to do that to BT's SP
(or take-over merchants; unlikely now though?)

All looking strong for continuance, but eventually that overbought condition will mature and burst, and the rally will reverse back out down somewhat, and proceed at a more leisurely measured pace.

Just can not accept that the 200 day average trend will not blow it's dog whistle and hoist the SP back. You just can't zoom past it like that. Decorum required :) But BT HAS TO eventually rise above it, has to! To progress and have done with "floors and bottoms". This is its opportunity, or rather it's first of several attempts - IMO.

But for now - just enjoy the week.

Well yes Aus, (profit is vanity; cash is sanity) revenue has been a big unattended issue for too long as cost cutting is the mantra of the day; see net debt etc.,

But revenue needs the same attention. No getting away from that. Hardly here anything about that in the media. The BOD needs bombarding with emails from holders on that issue. They're paid enough to fix it all.

" I think sp should be around 130, as it was at this even when the situation was a lot bleaker with more unknowns. "

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Nancho2, I think your 130 just got a whole lot easier and a little bit harder all at the same time :)

Been tracking the most significant and most internationally respected trendline for BT for years, and currently it's dropped so low it's barely at arms length away - sitting at it's lowest ever tonight - 117p

Not long before that drops further and comes to sit tight at I'd guess just a little below 110 - and that's significant.

An SP is going nowhere until it sits above the 200 period moving average. It's come down to almost meet BT's SP and will do (only ever done so on two significant occasions in 5 years (if you count up to Jan 2021)
- the great summer of 2018 and unbelievably Boris Johnson's election - and then went catatonic straight after, with the most ferocious drop in the entire near 5 years, a near perpendicular drop.

Anyway, 117 will present something of a problem but should the SP surmount it, then it's Bob's your uncle because institutions all know about it and sit upo and take notice when it gets beat.

Only thing is, a stock gains more kudos if it rises up to beat through the 200 period average, and less so if the SP lies there lazily allowing the 200 period average to descend on it, if you follow what I mean.

If you want 130, you have to break 117 first. Been easy in the past, now it's been body building and will present a problem.

Cont >>>

Unfortunately, Revenue is not showing as increases under any heading (they've decreased to the worse) and on that I concur with the analysts. Until Revenue commences to mimic net profit and show increases y-o-y, the SP is unlikely to recover fully, but in the meantime, judging the value of an under performing stock just got a lot fairer.
I expect to see that reflected in the SP this week.

They've been hitherto far too harsh in underestimating net profit. It's a start in correcting that.

Okay, I'll get right to it. The consensus analysts forecasts were fully released today, Monday (there's a first; never been known before, on a Monday).

And Net Profit forecasts have been increased across this and all future years.
It's not important how accurate or not they are, it's whether as a group they have increased their forecasts as a whole, y-o-y, and that they have done, and it's been long overdue for a long time - and I believe it has already impacted market sentiment today amongst the cognoscenti already.

I have firmly held that market sentiment is forged for or against company's by the consensus forecasts of the house analysts. BT's have been resolutely downbeat, and they were right to do so, but went too far as they kept underestimating by ever-larger margins at every recent update. They HAD to increase forecasts for net profit as the analysts forecast of £738mfor H1 was smashed by BT when they revealed they had achieved £856m.
Leaving things as was, would make them inaccurate to a laughable degree. So was disappointed on Saturday when they revealed only the revenue forecasts. They are right in forecasting revenue and net profit to show a decline against last year, but the declines they have been showing have been so horrendous I believe they have contributed to driving the SP lower than would otherwise be the case. These latest forecasts do not auger a recovery but do come closer to revealing BT is not declining fast as their past forecast led the market to believe, and now they're out, the SP will react more positively this week. Not a recovery, need a similar recovery in revenue for that, but a more realistic forecast from them; hence watch the SP this week ie., sentiment.

Again, you should not be looking for accuracy from them but a reversal to their prior forecasts and a change in momentum to showing steady increases upon increases in future years. Judge for yourself here they are -

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/btgroup-consensus-6-nov-2020.pdf

2020/2021
Net Profit current forecast = £1.414bn
Net Profit NEW forecast . . = £1.441bn = Increase!

2021/2022
Net Profit current forecast = £1.607bn
Net Profit NEW forecast . . = £1.6225bn =Increase!

2022/2023
Net Profit current forecast = £1.637bn
Net Profit NEW forecast . . = £1.7055bn =Increase!

And all 3 years show a nice y-o-y progression over the prior year. I still think this year's actuals will beat their year 3, but leave that for another day (ie., just double the H1 actual of £856m to guesstimate this full year to see what I mean; it's virtually similar to last year's £1.734bn).

Unfortunately, Revenue is not showing as increases under any heading (they've decreased to the worse) and .....

( Just a little bit more in next post to summarise and finish off. . . ) > > >

Knew it! Thought something was afoot when strangely only a smidgen of forecast data was published on the weekend. That rise in today's SP was no coincidence. It was nothing to do with Biden and even less to do with a new vaccine announcement.

Only just looked at the actual performance of today's price action in detail. It was so encouraging I had to refer to textbooks to confirm the probabilities, and it's on - a continuation of the rise of the SP as seen today. What had caused that?

I went to the usual suspects
- and wasn't surprised with what I've found - knew it! :)

Bit busy now, so will post what I'm yabbering about much later tonight. If you can read between the lines you'll know where to dig in and post your findings before I get back - as I need a bit of supper first.
But it's good news. Not massive good news, but the first of its kind in awhile.

I'll stick my neck out and say it - the SP is set to continue rising this week.
They played us on the weekend. Knew it! :)

OMI - Yes, I see what you mean - it's been on a roll.

Here's the thing
- It's just recently come OUT of overbought condition after a lovely rally.

Overbought again? Blimey, it's like you wait for a bus and 3 turn up at once LOL!

Too many, chased the SP too rapidly, and again, is about to revert to the mean so I would expect a retrace to commence this week. In fact it came out of overbought condition round about the 19/20th October - the peak. Bet it didn't hurt either, you would hardly notice, as it has more or less gently flat-based a bit since then.

But did you feel a bit of a stingy bed-bug bite today in OMI? Bet you did.

It is IMO, about to retrace a little bit more. It wants to revert to the mean, so if you're looking to top-up , the SP in OMI may on probabilities just present a lower SP opportunity shortly. Don't know how far it's likely to retrace as only looked briefly.
Might not retrace at all, as only my opinion of course.

Alavb - It's overbought on technicals. As it's hot at the moment it might only slowly drop out of that condition, but experience shows that generally, most stocks are quite noticeable how they retrace down out of that condition .

All popular rising stocks enter overbought occasionally.

It has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the number of shares at all - in any way shape or form. It's a purely sentiment-based-metric.

Today was unexpected. So see what comes out in the wash next. I'm thinking it'll follow the other retraces to date, but maybe not this time , might take longer.

As said earlier, I wasn't expecting this stellar performance today, so let things unfold and see if this proves to be the exception to the rule.

Not everything functions 100% reliably otherwise investing would be much simpler.

You mention GGP - yes that too has caught me out today; (I was expecting it to rise to circa 26p-ish this week, maybe) but in the opposite way to WSBN.

Must admit, the great SP performance today (never mind, Biden and the additional vaccine breakthrough announcement) was not what I thought would be on the radar today.

The overbought condition is now flaring up again, where I was expecting a return lower. Could go on for some time, if I've misread the situation.

However, standing by my assertion until tomorrow, and if the SP is still impressively rising then it's back to the drawing board for me.

Can't understand GGP doing the opposite and throwing a wobbly today, either.

My portfolios are flying this morning. Media are reporting that Biden victory euphoria is sweeping through most markets in general today. If that's the 'reason' then I'm expecting it to be the initial short term effect only.

Whatever WSBN 16%+ up currently as I type, on no bullish RNS release is quite astonishing this morning.

Still stand by my post re: SP is temporarily overbought
- but when a stock is hot - it's hot :) and breaks all the traditional metric measuring rules that have been previously held dear.

My portfolios are flying today. The watch list in general to the left of screen is overwhelmingly blue. Media is claiming the Biden victory effect is the reason. This stock has not participated in that effect so far. I expect the Biden effect to be short lived as sheer relief that the old tyrant that was, is to be replaced. Some stocks on my watch list are inexplicably up 10% this morning!

Not BWNG's day to the prom today.
My thousands invested in here from back in the day are down to triple figures, at this stage further erosion to my triple figure current valuation is mostly academic. If the SP dropped another 50% I'd only lose a few more triple £££'s only.

- I keep this investment to remind me about blindly adhering to buy and hold strategies, as recovery if there is to be one for my particular case, can burn up a lifetime in patient waiting time.

6% up?
- 10% up currently!
Geezaloo, and no big hitting RNS either.

Media are reporting that Biden victory euphoria is sweeping through most markets in general. Other than that, no idea why.

" After XD day...... It may actually continue to rise "

Approx 3 years or so ago, I seem to recall, it did exactly that, and continued riding all the way through XD period. A blue moon rare occurance.