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Thanks Nige, you're welcome.

ADVFN is it?
Can only see line drawings. Not much revealed with a line drawing.

Candlesticks are better as each daily c/stick gives off 7 pieces of information on each day's performance. ( c/sticks are yet another discipline in themselves ).

OHLC Bars better than a line drawing, but still less info than c/sticks (if you don't want to learn candlestick reading).

The Relative Strength Index is incorrect.
It's showing as approx RSi55 when in fact BT closed tonight sitting right on the doorstep of overbought just below the RSi70 border - at 69.odd

An error on ADVFN's part as I see they're using the default 14-period timeframe data collection point, so it should be showing RSi69+ tonight.

Concludes > > >

. . . Not sure if I should complicate matters further but -

I've deliberately always separated the Price to 200 period average because the SP IS ABOVE the 200 period average, which is good.

However, the 200 period average is still itself sinking south (like the Ultra-long term trend) currently down to 113 as I alluded to the other day, but now the 200 period average 'angle of attack' is not so acute and slowing, becoming shallow like a plane coming into land. The moment the 200 period average levels off straight and horizontal, you will hear a rustling sound above your head - it will be all BT holders hearing a giant page in a big history book being turned over.

Like the Long-term trend It's looking v soon. I can only guess where that might occur - at 110-ish?

Once it levels off straight and horizontal it's a time to celebrate and the bad 5 years becomes history
- or will it?
Celebrations must be kept short as once it levels off, the pull of the SP (now the newly annointed king) takes over and like some Louisiana prison guard pack of bloodhounds running through the swamps, it will set off in hot pursuit after the SP.

If there is a lookout at the SP camp he will shout only one thing - R-U-N! ! !

And that will now become the story of life for BT's SP - run fast, run hard, in front of the mighty 200 period average.

I have a stock in my portfolios making me decent money doing just that for years now - so it can be done. Yes it will mean BT will have to make like a FAANG stock.

So the 200 period average sliding south is enhancing the SP at the moment. Soon it will be time for the SP to realise the 200 period average is morphing into a prison escapee posse and will give chase - and the SP has no other function in life but to keep on increasing - doesn't matter if it's only 1p rise per month - anything will do.

- Oh, and by that time, when the 200 period avg turns into the BORG collective, the Ultra LONG term trend will have become bullish and now show its colours and offer a hand of support to the SP.

He who is friend becomes foe - and he who is foe becomes a close friend. Interesting times ahead.

===========

BT currently -

200 day ma trend .= Bearish (Still gently sinking south)
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . . = Bearish (Got a face like an Indian chief on it!)
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish (Looking to change soon)
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = BULLISH

" Looking at the long-term share price chart from year 2000, am I right in thinking that BT are about to breakout to the upside? If so this would be very positive right? "

------------------------
(A simple question - but a long reply :) :)

First off, to answer your query immediately Nige, yes, the long term trend is bending acutely upwards and is looking to continue in that direction. The SP is above, at long last, but the long term trend itself, has yet to cross to the upside, (lower value to cross above the higher value) perhaps on current velocity and trajectory I estimate it will, by January, maybe?

So yes, "about to breakout to the upside" - maybe by next month-ish?

But -

There's 2 versions of the long term trends I use, but I only ever post one
- see end of post where I've included the lot at the foot of the page
(3 long term trends if you include the most powerfully authoritive - the 200 period average - which it is; a long termer
- it's so important some people use only the 200 day ma (over 5 years) - it's that lethal; and that life-giving).

Just as at the sharp end I use a custom "Ultra-Short term" trend v a "Short-term trend", so I also employ an Ultra "Long Term trend" (monthly prices over 20 years) together with my standard weekly based Long-Term trend (weekly prices over 10 years). The time span displayed is irrelevant - it's the custom values chosen for each trend that is important.

The Ultra long term trend takes a helluva lot longer to change direction, and I remain surprised to see that it still has to show a flicker of interest in ceasing from diving south. Takes months - and I mean months, to change direction. It's designed that way to take care of misleading flash in pan, spiky SP's - and literally asks SP's to back up their prowess with sustained displays northwards/southwards, before it'll even acknowledge the existence of a new kid on the block.

So to complicate matters, yes, the long term trends are looking on course to breakout soon, probably cross-over in January.

And yet no, the Ultra Long term trends are still urging caution, and are still diving south. But one by one, the SP is knocking them all into shape. The BT SP is reactivating as Mike Tyson.

Not sure if I should complicate matters further but -

I've deliberately always separated the Price to 200 period average because the SP IS ABOVE the 200 period average, which is good.

However the 200 period average is still itself sinking south (like the Ultra-long term trend) and is currently down to 113 as I alluded to the other day, but now the 200 period average 'angle of attack' is not so acute and has become shallow like a plane coming into land. The moment the 200 period average levels off straight and horizontal, you will hear a rustling sound above your head - it will be all BT holders hearing a giant page in a history book being turned over.

CONTINUES > > >

Been interested for a couple of weeks now, lurking only ( first post) and don't intend investing until Jan/Feb next year at the earliest as CLX being a recent IPO, it may do, as a lot of IPO's do - and that is range widely over 3/6 months or so, before settling down at what the market perceives is a fair price.

A poster on here, posted one week after the launch:
" . . . I will wait and watch for the share price and figures like PE ratio to be released and may invest in future. . . "

So, what is it? The P/E ratio? He never came back and aired his opinion. So I will :)

A couple of old annual trading accounts were already available back then (this site shows the historic PE ratio based on last year's annual accounts of a humungous P/E 40.7 at this £1 SP area).

However, with the very latest H1 interim trading results now in, and using the forward P/E ratio with the TTM method of calculation based on the latest higher results achieved, the fwd P/E ratio is actually showing much lower at P/E 28, a big drop on the old historic earnings figure.
However that P/E 28 is still way higher than the industry average that CLX inhabits which is, currently PE 19.3

The fact that even the forward PE ratio is well above the industry average does not bother me unduly as CLX is boasting they are the best at what they do, and their recent trading results do look encouraging (if time in the near future l might post all the annual results data I have available on here, as I have access to several years worth of pre-IPO listing annual trading results.

Besides, this higher-than-average PE ratio is part and parcel of a new entrant being received favourably by the market - so it's that 3 months ending by this year end where the SP can give a clearer picture of how the market feels about that high valuation; and my reason to elect for safety and forgo the chance of rapid profits in order to take a ride for the longer term with a young company, once I feel it gets an SP position that is sustainable and allows further growth, and the possibility off topping-up over the years at suitable junctures.

Was looking out last weeks or so (but was up north) to ask your teleco's engineering opinion on something,
but first --

Fleccy, if you see this - don't reply.
Rest up & give your body time to replenish it's immune system antibodies because it's whilst suffering something milder that weakens your body and leaves you susceptible to the worst effects of a future Covid attack. Even posting can drain your energy, when analysing data etc., in posts.

So, if bored whilst recuperating, read yes - but no responding.

It's this:
By chance unearthed a potentially little belter of a British (Scotland based) telecoms company.
It's the best in the world at what it does so was floated on the market at the beginning of October (5/10/20) so it's still under the radar the moment. Doesn't have any assigned brokers and little official research on it - as it's a tiddler (only £96m MCap) so v, very, tiny.
But right at the top of it's list of major customers from around the world is.... BT!

It was 60p-ish 2 to 3 weeks ago and has since risen to 112p - 70% increase in over a fortnight or so!!! (today 106-ish).

Trouble is - it's an IPO, and I well remember a specialist IPO consultant from years ago saying never buy an IPO in the first 3 months of it's launch as the SP ranges wildly to find it's level.

So I may buy next year in January or even later, as I found that SP 'upsets' can occur as late as 6 months after launch.

Whilst you're recovering and if you get bored you might be interested in looking in to it, "under it's hood", from an engineering POV.

I have only one caveat - You must promise not to become enamoured of it and buy right now. You must wait until at least 3 months have expired or longer, before thinking that - not whilst you're recovering. Research it only! (And that, only if it ignites your interest).

Just seen it's first H1 published results and nice increase on last year (also have several years of its pre listing annual results to hand - all indicate a growing company :) Very scant info on this company it is -

CLX (Calnex)

No one of any standing in the world knows anything about it yet. The 'herd' has yet to descend on it, if it turns out to be the next best thing etc,
- some links on the new CLX board here on LSE (I had a few more but didn't keep the links).

At this stage I'd advise anyone just to research it only, and not make a buying decision you might later regret. I'm certainly not rushing to buy, at least not until next year, January or February at the earliest and then only if conditions are right. And only an initial modest investment as can add over the years if it grows as a business.

PS to Fleccy: Don't reply; recuperate first.

Concludes > > >

. . . That's happened in:

by the end of 2016.
the summer of 2017,
by the end of 2018,
and twice this year -
initially during the crash in March,
and by early July (I topped up in that one)

So you can see those larger mean reversions almost a year or more apart, until this year. All of them screaming blue murder to: Buy Me!

They all had a "sameness" to them in that, when they first rose highly away from the averages they were pretty much in line with previous occasions. But since July of this year, that distance between the averages and the rising SP is the largest of them all, that I've ever seen in SLP.

And IMO the situation will be resolved most likely in two ways:

The first (my preference) is for the SP to consolidate and just stay here, vacillating between say 70's and 80's, just staying put - that would give time for the big trends which are constantly playing catch-up to the price, to continue rising to a closer average (currently way, way, down there, in the circ 53p-ish area). That's too far away and way out of synch.

The second way, is often the most common and the most disturbing for holders to endure unless prepared beforehand and that is something ignites the SP to commence a pullback - out of the blue - as in July earlier this year (and in all the above examples the SP did come down to visit the 200period average in-laws).

Not a certainty that will occur, could just keep rising non-stop, but that has not been the case over the past 5 years as shown in the above examples.
So I have no reason to expect that right now things should be any different.

If the price does keep on rising and the early new year is a bull market then yes, of course, the SP could continue rising for several months even, but then that difference between the averages and the SP just can't continue as is, and I would dislike the effect that would imply by that stage.

This is not a negative post. If anyone thinks that, read the post again. It's a lament to keep the SP on the right road that it's already on.

That's my reasoning - or IMO.

Thank you Stoodio - must say you're very generous in your compliments :)

===========

" with the landscape as such and prices as such, the SP movement quite literally only has one possible way to move..."

----------------------

Well yes - BUT, I have to post more fully on something I briefly touched on some posts back. Because, before I can wholeheartedly support that assertion the following will have to occur first IMO (for 'safety').

- And that is, I just can't shake the view that because the SP has travelled so swiftly since July, that a bit of mean reversion is overdue (again) to come into play to balance things out.

It would be pleasing (should it go on to do just that) that it does so, sooner rather than later.

Over the entire past 5 years of price action, the SP performance has been one of an undiluted one-way bullish trajectory, setting off from the bottom left of the screen and arriving at the top right hand corner - barely uninterrupted.
A textbook example, par excellence, of the performance that a winning stock should display.

You could say, that those of us that part-sold or sold out on the way, have shot ourselves in the foot (unless you rebought cheaper) as with hindsight you can see the strong trend lines never once said sell, but, did give off several cheap buying opportunities. Every time the SP spiked meaningfully, and rose quite high, it was always accompanied by being overbought, and quite soon retraced back down somewhat, thus keeping itself in equidistance to the mean average of the bigger trend lines. The SP has just descended out of kissing the overbought border on Friday, but never becoming overbought. (The following examples were all deep in to overbought territory before retracing out of it).
By the way, there were many, many, overbought conditions on smaller inconsequential rises as well as the dangerous, powerful, 'spiky' rises.

In a rising 200 period trend line, it's ALWAYS a gift, a buying opportunity, when the SP retraces back down to it, or nearby - or as in July breaks right through below it.

But in the SP of declining stocks (the polar opposite of SLP) that is accompanied by a down trending 200 period average, it's always a sign to sell up and get out when price falls below the 200 period average.

- As you know, SLP is the opposite of that - it's in a rock hard 5 YEAR rising 200 period average - the gold standard!

The SP has been in overbought condition on many occasions in that time as is the general characteristic of a very bullish stock, but on those occasions where the rise was 'extreme' and rose quite far away from major trends such as the 200 period average, mean reversion eventually came into play to haul the SP back to a more considered progression. That's happened in:

by the end of 2016.
the summer of 2017,
by the end of 2018,
and twice this year -
initially before the crash in March,
and by early July (I topped up in that one)

Continues > > >

With just December left - what's the tally of the 3 expired months so far?

1st month)
September open and closed the month at 62/62+ a nice 1.2%x decline - perfectly in line with expectations. Flat! A pass!

2nd month)
October open and closed 60/64 which was a bit above expectations for a 6% increase.

Expectations were for lower, but still, I'm now taking that 60 open and 64 close as just about barely, barely, acceptable all-in-all, as a 'flat' performance. Barely a pass so 2 out of 2 performing as expected? (Pushing credulity a bit there, though).

3rd month)
And so to November:
Disaster! A rogue month.
November opened at 65 and closed at 76 - so a near 17% increase!!
- What flatness !?!

All four months have each produced at least one rogue monthly result over the last 5 years, but overall it hasn't affected the mass result of expected flat performance.
However, facts are facts and November has destroyed that assertion in that particular month, and is a fail this year in supporting the proposition that this year too, will be a flat third, like all previous 5 years, of flat last thirds.

Tally? 2 out of 3 months so far performing to historic 5 year data.

And so on to December.

Summary:
Only a close in the low 60's circling back to the September open will suffice; so looking like the assertion of a flat third of the year like most of the past 5 years is now in question.

Then there's that bowl theory - the adding of the difference between the bottom of the bowl up to the lip of the bowl - added to the top of the lip brings the old wives tale of bowls up to circa 90p-ish. Not so far away now is it? What then?

SLP will be without legends, folklore bowls, and tales of yore etc., and make it's own way through the forest.

If you don't believe in fairy tales then 90p-ish need hold no fears, but then again if you don't believe as Tinkerbelle might say, then you won't be getting much in your Christmas stocking will you? :)

Will I ever get my cheap topping-up opportunity before the commencement of the new year???!

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