London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

I'm thinking initially a visit to the v high 80's.

But if deeper toxic strength in this pullback, then potential to retrace to v low 80's.

Some really low major supports further south, but pointless mentioning them here, unless the SP breaks the lower of the above.

Ultimately, at this juncture - still on course for completing January at the high end of the 90's, IMO.

Now the historically flat 4 months 'Kipper' season of Sept through to December are in - a summary follows of whether the SP performed in line with the 5 year averages or not.
Overall, I'd posted at the outset of the SP closing the year end, by likely circling back to the opening Sept price and thus close the year at circa v low 60's.
( ie. Flat as a kipper).

Here's what actually occurred :

1st month)
September open and closed the month at 62+/62+ a nice 1.2%x decline - perfectly in line with expectations. Flat!

- A PASS!

2nd month)
October open and closed 60/64 which was a bit above expectations for a 6% increase.

- A FAIL! Not flat at all.

3rd month)
November opened at 65 and closed at 76 - so a near 17% increase!!

- Another FAIL!

4th month:
December opened at 76 - closed @ 87 = 14% gain!

-Yet another FAIL!

Tally: only 1 month out of the 4 month 'season' was flat.

Clearly the 5 year averages are just that, and not cast iron assurances of actuals repeating on cue.

July and August according to the 5 year averages have proven to be the best top performing months for the past 5 years and so they did in 2020 with a 50% gain from July to end of August (higher if you held on a few single days more to the day before annual results day in v early Sept.)

However the 'seasonal' averages were only showing expectations of 30 - 40% for July and Aug - way lower than what actually occurred.

Same with the Kipper season. Expectations were to expect v little - yet 3 of the 4 months performed well above the seasonal 5 year averages.
- In fact both July/Aug together with the Kipper season still reflect lower but marginally a litle higher than 2020 actuals for next year (2021) despite 2020 outperforming all averages.

2021?
Well Jan and Feb are, and have been, showing as the 2nd best performing months of the year (July/Aug being statistically the best performing) based on consistent 5 year averages.

[ Will post the Jan/Feb SP expectations from the 5 year seasonal averages in a separate post next, later this evening.
Based on what's occurred in 2020 will it be another case of them being only the starting-base figure expectations? ]

We most certainly can Stoodio!

Yes Stoodio, SP strong as hell, with all "prophesies" now complete as of this very day! Despite now racing into overbought territory (of late that has meant literally nothing in this stock).

When the book of patterns, written in the history of ancient human's yesteryears and buried in an underground dusty chamber and chiseled upon tablets of Sanskrit, it foretold that the price action dictates the SP will complete when the moon is in the seventh high (no it didn't say anything about the moon but it does in my story) the SP will reach the same high as the commencement of the far bowl side.

Which the SP did. Circa 50p-ish.

Then someone kindly provided further transcripts from the chamber of the dusty patterns that foretold that once the bowl was complete, the SP is destined to rise further, to a total height of the same measurement as that from the base of the bowl up to the bowl's lip and that amount then added to the lip amount of 50p.

That prophesy meant circa high 80's.

And that's where it is tonight. All now completed.

In the absence of having access to asking Indiana Jones himself - What now?
What is the next 'foretelling'?

I mean, why does the prophesy only mention the additional high, equivelant to that from the base of the bowl up to the lip of the bowl, will be added to the lip of the bowl to obtain the ultimate high, if there's a lot more to come anyway?

Shouldn't it say something along the lines of: Now go forth and multiply?
or if bullish it will continue bullish
or if the SP turns bearish then bearishness will descend upon the land?

Why does it say nothing after the add-on to the lip of the bowl?

Looks like we have to hack our own destinies from now on.
Or you could just hold your breath whilst the SP is in the high 80's and only breathe out once into the safety of the 90's???

At the moment all moving averages are all looking towards the north star. Everything is bullish. Just wish the book of prophesies would give a series III preview. But nothing after the add-on to the lip of the bowl.

Anyway, aside from that, hoping to have time for a summary on Jan 1st of the 'kipper' seasonal averages which with the final day tomorrow, looks like anything you personally choose it to be, just so long as its most definetly NOT a flat kipper season this year!

However, there is a theme running through even further back to July and August that may auger even better for Jan & Feb, as all the performances this year are from the same stable of breaking the longer term averages - so why should it suddenly revert to the true averages for January and February?

Maybe Saturday/Sunday if out of time on Friday.
After that I have to work out if I can get home or remain a prisoner in an area that now gets a differing tier rating to that which I set out from. If that's the case then I'll have plenty of time in an enforced habitation lockdown area. Or I could fake a Dominic

Been tripping up over Tharisa posts all over the place.

A couple here on Friday -

-------------------

" I think they have shifted to Tharisa, which would make sense to diversify.Is it not a no brainer "

&

" It could be possible that pgm investors see tharisa as a better opportunity than slp. "

------------------

So decided to see what all the fuss was about.

Conclusion?
Flippantly dismiss SLP at your own peril. THS has everything to prove. SLP has nothing to prove - and still hasn't finished rewarding investors.

Initially was v impressed with the balance sheet of THS. But missed a red flag on first glance which I found after looking at the price action history, and shocked by what I saw, re-examined the balance sheet and the red flag stood out boldly, so began drilling down and found the cause of the abscess in THS's balance sheet.

SLP's balance sheet is a thing of beauty. Even more beautiful is the solid 5 year SP history that has made it impossible for anyone to buy SLP's shares at any point in the last 5 years - without gaining wealth. Impossible not to - no matter what date you bought. Impossible!

The price action history of THS on the other hand has been a pile of poo. Apart from early 2016 the odds have been against being in profit, until the current rise in the SP commenced in November. More likely that longer term holders would have been under water until last month.
Judging by the posts on THS, most would be newish holders otherwise there'd be a lot of disgruntlements of "about time" etc.,

This latest rally commenced at the start of November and hasn't let up. But it has all to prove itself. Because since 2016, every rally in THS has failed to have any legs!

In fact I'll go further. I want to see if THS can not only make it past 120 but permanently build on the 120's. It's been in failed rally after failed rally. No doubt this is the big one, but now the balance sheet to show why I have doubts where the same metrics in SLP are nothing but supremely glorious.

The red flag is the horrendous price to FCF (Free Cash Flow).

It's currently showing as 152.1 when the median for the industry is 13.9!

That's horrific!

SLP's is in the same industry median, but SLP goes one better and beats all the averages and is currently at 5.66 and as you know has the cash to back that up, and then some!

Digging in to THS's 'red flag' I discover it's not the liquidity, not net debt, but the ROCE, ROE and ROA that indicate only last year was commendable as the year prior - it was in single digit %'s so yes, last year THS did produce good metrics - but are good as they are - they are dwarfed by SLP's performance.

ROCE, ROE, ROA for SLP are so exemplary they destroy the pretender to the throne before it comes out of the blocks! SLP's are all very high double digits, thus showing it has the far greater ability to turn its profits into cash!

.....Continues > > >

Earlier this week I'd no sooner posted of expecting to see positive media reports on BT, than late on Wed night this came up unbidden, on my screen:

Entitled:
"BT and Vodafone shares: the outlook for 2021 - Is reviewed by a team of city experts"

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/bt-and-vodafone-shares-outlook-2021-ii514516#:~:text=Even%20after%20recent%20vaccine%20breakthroughs,five%2Dyear%20run%20of%20underperformance.

It's about Deutsche Bank going all positive on both VOD and BT with:

"... but a city banks telecoms team now sees substantial opportunities AMID PRICE UPGRADES for BT and Vodafone."

They've upped their rating on BT from Sell to Hold and increased their forecast SP (although they'd already done that in May and reiterated ever since, so why wax lyrical now?
Well I did say I was expecting a consensus analysts forecast update this weekend, so every time these broker's banks go on about a stock - they've usually just done a new review update - (read the end below :)

They are foaming at the mouth in delight over VOD but less so on BT as:

". . . much will depend on the level of return OFCOM will allow BT to make from next spring. "

You lot get a mention too, with:
"To the disappointment of its army of small investors. BT shares spent much of 2020 languishing at near 100p..."

There was another separate media report straight after that that also waxed lyrical about BT with the analyst starting off with:

"As an ex telecoms engineer..." Then proceeded to rip-off Fleccy's posts LOL! (Can't find it, it looked like a Motley Fool article).

Anyway, with the breathless prose involving Duestche bank it just confirmed to me that there must have been a recent meeting and then it's whichever of them gets to the media first (Berenberg last time)
So I just checked - and no midnight tonight or Sat morning release - it's out now, dated 18th Dec.

So next post will be a review of err . .. the analysts review :)

With that Wed bullish media release I'm expecting to find an increase in their forecasts - let's see - ( back shortly)

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for Velo

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for Velo

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Please enter at least 2 characters

No results found

Search results

Recently viewed

Trending