Member Info for Velo

No it didn't :)

Far from it - The day's low so far is exactly the same as currently showing up above, and that is 124.75

" In a nutshell when do you expect £3 + ??"

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Impossible to say. That comes under how long is a piece of string. Some stocks are over valued - some like BT are under valued. Doesn't mean the market will wake up one day and decide to correct wrongs. The SP is sentiment based. So my answer is I don't know.

I think BT is worth over £3. But can't say when sentiment will start impacting the SP towards that fair value. A big achievement in breaking market expectations in earnings would be a start, because it would compel analysts to raise expectations for the future.

Holders in BT are hostages to market sentiment which currently is to undervalue BT's SP. Anybody's guess when that market sentiment turns up for the better. The breakout since November last year is a start IMO. I regard it as still on, and Thursday may offer some insight if that is still the case with BT's actual achievement for Q3. Trading results and updates are the most obvious powerful turning points in trends. Either for good or bad.

Hunger Games?
Yes, like the insurrection of ancient Roman Slaves forcing their Roman masters into the arena and making them fight to the death upon pain of death if they didn't comply to fight each other in mortal combat, let's see which director versus his own colleagues from BT's BOD comes out as the sharpest tool in their acquirement of BT's shares, when forced into the arena to face each other!

Not based on who bought the most shares but who played the stock market game the best and bought at the best prices in 2020 and no further back, as impossible to get a cheaper price in years prior to 2020.

Actually, the number of director buys (all buys, no sells) in 2020 surprised me. It looks above average. It's because the old board has slowly been replaced along with Gavin Patterson, and the current board are regarded as quite new to BT in comparison to the stock market average tenures.

Also, I was quite surprised by the CV records of current directorships many hold, as well as in BT.

So the message is, don't put all you eggs in one basket if you want to acquire wealth, as all of them are doing very nicely when you add up income from multiple sources. In other words they have a record of success. The CEO's long CV is quite stand-out too. So with such (financial) success will they be a dab hand when choosing when to buy?

There's approx 15 directors but only 7 buys (6, one bought twice) in 2020.

Here's the directors current dates and SP achieved in buying during 2020:

10th June 2020 : Ian Cheshire - £1.26
24th June 2020 : Alison Kirby - £1.18
31st March 2020: Matthew Key - £1.18
16th June 2020 : Leena Nair - £1.13
14th May 2020 : Matthew Key - £1.10
14th May 2020 : Iain Conn - £1.08
31st March 2020:Jan Du Plessis£1.06

Did you buy in, or top-up lower than old warhorse, Du Plessis's £1.06?

With one site changing the SP future (to that of more darkly) I was looking up how others value BT's "fair value" for the SP.

That's value, not forecasts - that depends on market sentiment, despite whatever is a fair value. I personally use my own cobbled together valuation of an SP by the rough and ready use of comparing a company's P/E ratio to that of it's peers within the same industry. Kinda works for the shares I look at, on the whole.

There are half a dozen classical methodologies for obtaining 'fair value' for an SP. Most involve some complication far in excess of a simple P/E comparison calc. In particular, I often look at the DCF method (Discounted Cash Flow Valuation method) but it's endlessly complicated and you have to input future interest rates etc., Yawn - so I never bother to pesonally calculate it - but I do like Simply Wall Street's version of their Discounted Cash Flow method.

They are showing fair valuation of the SP for BT as £3.23

My method = the other end of £3 ie., up at the £3.80's.

Mine is not a long term, ultimate valuation, it's based on the performance a company is churning out right now and from the current trading year's projected earnings etc., So it's constantly shifting upon every trading update, and where sentiment places the SP currently.

Anyway, whilst looking at that, I found some other stuff, some of which intrigued me (latest position of big holders in BT etc., - DT AND Blackrock) and the whole point of the next post, which I'm calling BT DIRECTORS in HUNGER GAMES CONTEST, to find out who is the sharpest tool in the box, entrepreneurially, at our game, namely that of stock picking for profit :) - for 2020

We PI's get put in the stocks for poor timing, poor choices, how they doin' in their own BT stock buying?

That's up next.

(PS.
By the way, did you know that Monday Feb 1st, coincidentally marks 2 years to the day, that Phillip Jansen was installed officially in his new role as BT's CEO?)

Faulty,

Thanks for your concern in protecting me from being encouraged/influenced by others, but your defence of me is entirely misplaced.

You blame others for encouraging me with "...blowing hot air up Velo.."

and

"...and tell him how knowledgeable he is..."

- almost suggestive of how some enablers would offer a glass of alcohol to a recovering alcoholic, which in this case, you allege only leads to more:
"hot air in - reams of BS out."

What you fail to realise is: it's not the fault of others that I write BS.

I write BS at will, anyway. I don't need encouragement to do so.

Your attack on other posters is unacceptable, rude and you should apologise to them.

But thank you anyway for your misplaced concern in protecting me.

You know why you've made this error don't you?

You're far too shy and retiring in your posts, and should more directly say what's really on your mind.
- Isn't that the truth of the matter?

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.

Thank you for the supportive post Nige, appreciated :)

Well credit, where credit's due.

That Poundf site, had 129 as the close for January. I think that's good enough to the actual close.

http://poundf.co.uk/bt-share-price-forecast

And for Feb they were previously showing (copy/pasted from my post at the time):
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"...For instance, as the SP is currently trending in a slightly bearish trend, poundf is showing the SP to continue dropping slightly until it closes Jan @ 129.
And from then on back up into the 130's in February. So far, so not very arguable...."

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'
So, surely they'd stick to their Feb forecasts of 130's yes?

No! There's no 130's showing at all now - their futures have suddenly gotten worse and they've downgraded February to virtually the 100-teens the whole month, closing out Feb at 117.

Although they're still sticking to next year descending into the mostly 90's (with a few in the 80's) finally closing Jan 2023 at 91, a smidgen lower, than previously.

We certainly will Stoodio, hope you and yours are keeping well too, as am I.

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This post is for those out there looking for a cheap top-up on the expectation the SP pulls back briefly on Monday, now that the market has had sight of the trading update.

Or do you think that was it today - That 3p ( x2.8% ) pullback today?

The SP is still in an Ultra-Short Term bearish down trend.

Short-Term Trend and higher are resolutely bullish, so currently it's a v short term thing only.

Anyway, just knocked up some potentials if (IF) the pullback on the trading update results appears again (for Monday only).

First thing that I noticed is that ALL the supports for Monday - every one of them is in the 90's.

Had a wry smile to myself, should those occur as a certain poster might take a:
"I-Told-you-so" post at her critics.

Nothing lower than those.
If you want this bear trend to cease now the update is known, then IMO sitting things out on the subs bench by close at just 103 would be the first step.

However, should the SP skip on its merry way, then resistances commence at 105 with stops all the way up to 115 are on the radar. Those are pivot points for Monday only.
What no one knows is which of the three ways the SP will travel on Monday, or how much strength in those directions.

Up, down or nowhere but the subs bench?

Which will you root for, before Stoodio's 125 takes over and gets underway?
(The clock is ticking as they liked to say over there :)

Fell off the bottom:

===========

BT currently -

200 day ma trend . . . . . . = (Gently 'lifting' from horizontal only)
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . .= Bearish (Designed to be insensitive)
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = (V nearly; about to become bullish)
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Ultra-short term trend . . . = Bearish

(All IMO).

" SP tumbling back again and nothing to stop it. Apart from results next week when it will retrace again. "

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I'm not so sure about it retracing again, next week. Just not sure, nothing more.

I'm in two minds.
Firstly, the supports (for Monday alone) have gotten lower and the first of the higher teens (118) have drifted onto the radar as the worst scenario possible but only if it's a really, really, bad day on Monday, but generally lower 120's are sitting in the supports as more likely than the teens for Monday.
And on the SP upside, the resistances are nothing to write home about, so even if a good day on Monday, unlikely to impress anyone, but would be a start.

Subs bench has eased to sit things out safely - at 126.

However 2nd mind:
Relative strength is terribly bearish and very low indeed, so low that not much further is in sight, and the whole plot is drifting towards the lower end of things, where often recoveries ferment at the darkest hour.

Only the shorter term trends are 100% bearish, BUT have not yet spread their infection up through the chain to the more powerful trends, but dangerously the intermediate trend is a bit dog eared and clinging desperately to remaining bullish. It's still bullish looking, but not confident about it.

Things are still short term bearish, but this long bear trend might have had the best of things now.
I am 100% confident in my opinion the market's forecast for Q3 is unduly downbeat for net profit. (Not sure about revenue). I'm not expecting Q3 actuals from BT to be disastrous, so if they are, I am defeated.

Things have reached such a bearish pitch in this downtrend, and yet the infection has been held to the short term trends only and no further worse that I'd be more on the lookout early next week for some unexpected respite before the big reveal on Thursday. It's not visible nor on the cards, but a deeper bear run from here on, I'm a bit iffy about, because there's no fuel other than media bad news-day sentiment.

Trading updates from BT are meat and fuel.
I'm not expecting a big fail from BT. Minimum they have to do, is come in on target. And I just think the target for net profit is set so low it'll get beaten, just like in Q1 and Q2. And if they do, because there are a couple of higher bullish trends in the air, which haven't been seen for 5 years - it may be a different response to historically Q1-Q4 reveals - " if " they come in on target.

I'm placing a lot of store in the new intermediate and medium trends turning bullish, with the higher trends tweaking their whiskers to go likewise. The shorter term trends have behaved like this regularly so not new - the longer trends being bullish ARE new.

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BT currently -

It went up to a £20k gain soon after the last posting, but has now fallen back to just a £6k gain.

£6k gain?
Pfftt

In a couple of hours?
Pfftt again!

No argument from me Stoodio - at a 102 starting base figure, have to agree - you're on the money!
But I have to wait for the first trading day of February for my calcs.

SLP has out-performed every estimate of mine, so whatever my calcs throw up on Monday, expect actually higher to transpire.

PS. I've posted throughout in default GBP £££'s.

Tsk! Should have been in USD $$$'s throughout.

Changes nothing, except the currency symbol. It still all hangs together and calculates out.

"No idea where your £192m+ comes from?"

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Oops not £'s sorry - USD $$'s.
ie., $192m+

From Stockopedia

Aerrghh! Nige! What have I pressed on Investing.Com?
I'm too rich, it's saying the market value of my investment is now 1/4 £million
- and since posting I'm showing £10/£11k up in profit. Shall I go on Reddit and post next to that chap boasting of he's made a $10m holding in Gamestop?

" The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. "
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Sorry, Not a typo this time but a slip of the tongue. Been posting of late, on another forum of expecting a Q3 next Thursday.

So, should have been Q2 above, obviously, and not Q3.

" The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. "
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Not a typo this time but a slip of the tongue.
Been posting of late, on another board of an upcoming Q3 due next Thursday, so meant Q2 above obviously, not Q3.

" but registered forever as a huge day's low (52p?) "

Typo.
Should have inserted another "intraday" before the word " day's ".

" 90 target in the short term, the results were 25% down from expectations and no special dividend. "

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Whilst I'm bowled over by the trading achievements in Q3, and will take no prisoners in my praise of those achievements, I'm a little concerned by the barbs included in comments against the poster of the above comment.

I get what the poster is highlighting, but think due to the brief one-liner some may have missed her point (if indeed the ID handle is female).

The key subject word is the 5th from the end: ie., "expectations", which I interpret as analysts market guidance forecasts "expectations".

Not hers, mine or anyone else's - but the expectations of the market ie., in this instance Liberium's.

The market forecast expectation is for revenue of circa £192+m for the full year.

The Q3 is showing H1 to be circa £85m. Roughly doubling that, falls short of market "expectations".

That's all that's being highlighted.

Couldn't care less that an analyst expects £192m revenue when last year, revenue was £114m, yet at the halfway mark this year, revenue is right nearby already at £85m!

If full year revenue comes in at, ooh I dunno 'only' £170m I will be seriously impressed. (The net profit even on that lower than expectations forecast is likely to be so high I dare not post my thoughts on my personal expectations of it!)

The analysts won't like it, and by extension the market won't - but I will, because the strides of increase each and every Y-O-Y particularly net profit are gargantuan, and I for one will be over the moon.

If you think market expectations will be met, first ascertain what those expectations are, then post your opinion of what you feel revenue and net profit might actually come in for the full year.

The poster above has done just that, and she receives barbs, and mansplainng? Of course beg to differ with her opinion, that's what forums are for.

Example:
Last September, even though I was expecting the SP to temporarily drop on the reveal, I tracked down a media analysts review to discover what they thought and immediately knew why the SP had most likely dropped, despite mighty impressive results.

The media analyst said SLP had disappointed by failing (failing!!!!?) to meet market expectations. And down the SP went, massively intraday as I recall in a flash intraday crash that lasted seconds but registered forever as a huge day's low (52p?)

I'd be most grateful if anyone has a link for the full version of Liberium's analysis report so I can read the original latest forecasts. If not to hand I will email them to see if a freebie is available just by accepting their email links. Some do some don't unless you pay up. I'm after a freebie :)

Thanks Nige,

Thought there was a dedicated futures page, but it'll do :)

Noticed that after posting a 70% miss against earnings yesterday, Tesla is only down 1%+ so far in this first hour of trading. If BT came in showing a 70% miss against the analysts earnings next Thursday, no would win how deep the market would mark down the SP. No one !

Conclusion?

- Copy Musk and get yourself a good cover story for the new trading year. He's boasting of 50% up across the board for the new trading year - and they've bought it.

God help him if he fails to deliver a second time, or it'll be duffer Bush's:
Fool me once; Fool me twice etc., etc.,

Why, thank you Rod. LOL! Quite a compliment coming from you:)

Almost makes me pine for the days of being called Velodrama :) :)