Member Info for Velo

Fleccy, his might interest you - A new pressure group run by a New Zealand woman living in the UK has teamed up with Age UK Charity to tackle phone bill issues and the vulnerable.

Not going to bang on about it. But you appear interested and defensive over the issues when they involve BT.

It's behind a pay wall with this Sunday's date, so only the lead in viewable,
" My crusade to stop BT from overcharging the vulnerable "

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/my-crusade-to-stop-bt-from-overcharging-the-vulnerable-h828hvkpk

" . My son is invested and is always telling me gold is for old gits! "

----------------------

And there speaks the future! Yes/No?

Reminds me of accounts of back in the day of the old giants wisdom of during negotiations, accepting letting Bill Gates take full copyright ownership of the Microsoft software only, whilst IBM chuckled that the kid doesn't understand business, let him have the worthless software - anyone with industry experience KNOWS the future of computing lies in the hardware - it's what we (IBM) old blue was built on, mastery of the hardware. We know the business better than this nerd Gates; he knows nothing about real business - let the fool keep the software rights - he doesn't know a thing. We do!

Only just noticed
- VOD has closed the week almost eye to eye the same SP as BT.

Not sure, but think that's a first, maybe?

Concludes>>>

. . . The sad part to this story is that after all the years of contact with BT being unable to rectify a solution to the problem, about 3 months after closing down the BT account and moving over to Vodafone - BT advertised the exact same deal in the national newspapers but for £28 per month!

Had I known they had that deal my relative would still be with BT. But no one at BT offered it.

I just assumed it was a new technology thing that had just been developed otherwise someone at BT would have surely offered it as a solution, no?

So, this story is not about the fault of BT, but a sorry tale of competitors developing and answering needs faster than BT could at the time (2019).

I sympathised with Fawlty's rant because I have had direct contact with an elderly vulnerable person racking up £500+ bills per quarter just for a damned landline, but no longer thanks to Vodafone.

Do you get a picture now Fleccy?

BT should not have lost a lifelong loyal customer. What went wrong in this instance?

When Vodafone told BT to skedaddle - BT never contacted me to make a counter offer or anything at all.

It was nice to see Openreach during the changeover though :)

I hold no ill will towards BT but Fawlty does have a point about vulnerable elderly customers who are confused and can't help themselves due to infirmity of advancing years

Fleccy, cut some of this down already. It's a long piece but you need to read it with a real world example.

Let me expand a little on my support for Fawlty's viewpoint, so you can put it in context with your own world view of BT. It's not all cut and dried.

An elderly family member who had been with BT since 1976, and who is now 91 was running up huge landline bills with BT. Other family members were on to BT explaining the elderly person was registered as disabled and classed as vulnerable, and that relative's main contact was with another family member who lived in the countryside with no mains landlines but survived on mobile phones only.

So huge phone bills were being racked up because of the immense number of phone calls to a mobile line - from a BT landline!
- hence the huge, huge, bills.

The elderly family member had all the age-related conditions you could list, so was unaware they had just phoned someone and would ring again and again. I was/am the registered Power of Attorney in this instance and could see the hundreds of calls going through and the quarterly bills were exceeding £500++ per quarter!!!

BT bent over backwards to help once they understood the vulnerability, but it was still only a bog standard landline. No broadband. No TV package. And bills of over £500++ every quarter. Had every offer going with BT until they could do no more. I tried all over and the internet, but could find no solution.
Still half a £k every damn quarter - for just a landline.

One day I was in the Vodafone shop over a personal phone issue which they sorted out on the spot with a free brand new state of the art phone. Free because it was a Huawei! They were giving them away.

It was during one of these visits that I randomly enquired about solutions to my relative's phone bill problems
- and they offered a special deal where the landline could be used with ALL calls free of charge AND all calls to mobile phones free of charge too.

AND get this - unlimited broadband package too!

The deal was £25 per month - so now that problem had reduced down from £500+ per quarter to only £75 per quarter with unlimited broadband thrown in for free!

It was a done deal. I just assumed BT was hamstrung with Ofcom preventing BT from undercutting rivals, hence the increasing yearly net profits, and therefore limited help with my relative's huge bills.

Couldn't believe it when it was all set up. Free phone calls any old how - the broadband was redundant but put into use when I visited only. And from that day to this not one single penny over the agreed £25 per month. Am I pleased as hell or wot? :) :) :)

The sad part to this story is that after all the years of contact with BT being unable to rectify a solution to the problem, about 3 months after closing down the BT account and moving over to Vodafone - BT advertised the exact same deal in the national newspapers but for £28 per month!

Had I known th.... SORRY continues >>>

" we expect to deliver growth in the year considerably ahead of the forecasts published "

----------------------

I always thought the stockmarket idiom went:

Buy on the news; Sell on the results.

But judging by the bearish SP reaction it would appear the current contingent of holders are of the type:

Buy on the rumour; Sell on the news.

PS. Not going to make a nuisance of myself on here over Bitcoin. Probably the last I'll mention it. But for a gold bug forum, this is one heavy chat forum on Bitcoin. Why are you all so obsessed with it; and all of mainly the same 'herd' opinion too?

zambianminer below, JepGambardella yesterday and anyone else in similar position as those two -

You both say you hold positions in Bitcoin. My question is how, and where?
Is it via an ETF, or the real deal, actual Bitcoins?

For some time IG has shown that regulations have moved to ban those seeking to take a position in Bitcoin "for your protection" unless you sign up to a new non-tax free account.

Have you purchased an ETF outside of the spread bettors?

Briefly if anyone interested, I'm a devout trend follower (and have a foot in fundamentals too, so a TA Fundamentalist???) Anyway, back in the day I was tracking this new fangled Bitcoin as it plunged to 300.

My own trend lines were indicating that it would now rise from that circa 300 floor. As it rose I thought to myself, I can do this, so scoured the internet reading the high and mighty, people I trusted, investors with far superior skills than I possess, and ALL of them, including Warren Buffet, threw up their hands in absolute horror, forecasting an imminent crash saying it was nothing more than a bubble. Not most of them - all of them to a man!

I was floored by the overwhelming bubble opinion of the knowledgable but herd-like crowd.

By 400, I knew almost for certain, that they might be superior investors etc., but they didn't understand Bitcoin, so were judgemental holding outdated old beliefs that had served them well in the pre-digital age.

As the price climbed above 400, which is where I started looking round to get in, but gave up due to the dire warnings from my elders and betters, and the whole of the internet, I became aware that certain people were terrified of this Bitcoin business becoming successful and were just 'herding' urban mythology opinions. Still watched it as the years went by testing and refining my trend following to eventually it's now 57,000.

Wanted in at 400 - at £10 per point. You figure it out.

And my trend lines indicated the rises and crashes along the way, so a modest stake would by now have been life changing.But the advice just like on here - has protected me from all that.

Protected me? I smell a rat - and it's not from the bubble!

Not looking to take a stake right now, as the whole process has really rammed home the DYO research principle which has left me with the view and of the belief over 7 years or so, you've all been hoodwinked into urban myth thinking.

No one's looking at what's happening in front of their own eyes - just buying into we're all going to die one day, so what's the point in even trying something risky.

" You guys still laughing it up at other peoples misfortune? Rod the gob Mitchell, Fleeccy, all chipping in to rub their hands in glee awaiting the latest news from the LSE town crier and King of Fables, Major Velo Guessalot of Jackonory. "

----------------------------

Ha, ha!
Fawlty, I have to admit I genuinely laughed and chuckled on the sofa as I read that Major Velo jibe. Good one. That's the way to do it - keep it up.
And thanks for the promotion from Captain Hindsight up to Major Velo etc., Shades of Major Velo to ground control . . .
Take your protein pills and put your helmet on,
Commencing countdown, engines on. . .
LOL - Space cadet, geddit? :)

However, the point of this post is to object to your post on 3 counts.

1). You have omitted the word "whilst" from your opening para (above) which should have been inserted between 'glee' and 'awaiting' because as it stands, it reads as if Rod is gleefully awaiting my posts. You should know Rod has hated my posts a lot longer and more than you. You don't have a dog in this game of hate that Rod is champion of.
Also, that's a crap way to insult Rod. He is not Rod the Gob. He's very succinct.
If you really want to get under his skin you should have played around with 'Thailand paedo predator' and suchlike (now you've made me say something unkind about Rod which is unintended; just trying to help you improve your insults and jibes).

2) The whole para misleadingly implies I'm on board with those who don't support the elderly's misfortunes with BT's tariffs. I was never part of that thread, and on the contrary, I support your view further down of:

" Well who cares if BT specifically target elderly loyal customers to stiff, they should have changed supplier."

- Only instead of "utter moron-ing" everybody as you do, I would (in my own style of course) have made similar points without alienating everyone who holds a differing opinion.

3) You were never this angry or disgruntled in the past. What's happened to you? Have you just grown older?
Are you surviving on a meagre pension? Something's different with you. Whatever it is I wish you good fortune in overcoming it.

Oh and an extra:

4) Please learn to spell Fleccy's ID handle correctly. Unlike your jibe around my ID name, it's not funny. In the past he's mentioned it's offensive to him. It's bordering on online bullying now.
Don't go down the same road as the God-Complex guy; he's insane - you are not.
You're better than that.

PS. My calling you Fawlty is a term of endearment and not out and out insulting
- unless you specifically state you object to it of course :)

". . . just the constant effort by the market whenever something less than wildly positive . . . "

----------------------

- Yes Ray, I can well appreciate the 5 year dour sentiment of the market has seared and scarred itself into long term holders in BT.

I can assure you, that without a change in the Long Term trend from years of its rank bearishness to a brand new bullish face on it - I would not under any circumstances have bought back in to BT.
These fledging changes in BT trends greatly interest me. Just have to suck it and see if the inevitable bearish turns in progress, are temporary pullbacks or develop into serious retraces - and thus back to square one.

One test has already been passed, with the ball being being kept in the air.

The 3 month test ( by early Feb) has equalled one significant failed breakout and the SP is still the last man standing.

The next up is the 6 month test.

No bullish breakout in BT has lasted beyond 6 months.
And that 6 month date falls round about a week before the finals are published in May!

How about that for swallowing hard in anxiety and hoping for a decent set of trading results on May 13th? :)

You could well be right about a retrace from here, and although there was a nice gentle lift into close AFTER the analysts forecasts were made public, I disliked the final 5 minute corrective after hours price action formation that closed the final minutes as a Doji candlestick. It showed indecision.

Indecision as whether to continue with this 131 SP advance?

- Or indecision in abandoning this recent retrace?

Revenue forecasts hold no surprises - it's the usual dour forecast.
But profit forecasts have been increased - annually.
Despite leaving me distinctly unimpressed by the low-ball profit forecast by the analysts.

So I can't be sure for Monday, but at this moment, pretty convinced any pullbacks will be short lived.

I do think that market sentiment AGAINST BT - is softening.
Why?
Because my trend lines tell me so :) :) :)

I no longer trust mine or others human emotional judgements for which humans are ill equipped for use on the stock markets.
Only a cold-blooded data analysis of the market's sentiment will suffice.

The trend lines are cold-blooded, unemotional tools, and suggest sentiment is changing from bearishness to bullish sentiment.

The human analyst forecasts suggest nothing significant changing.

---------

Only one way to decide it - Let battle commence on Monday!

Couldn't ask for a better close to a lack-lustre week in the SP performance.

Now wish there had been no analysts update - as on pure market performance alone, everything is buzzing for next week. But how to decipher the analysts forecasts and its impact on the market, if any?

Revenue should cause no surprises - but are downgraded to the down side, yet again.

Annual Net Profit continues to be upgraded, generally across the board. (But Q4 is the lowest ever forecast this current year!)
(Ignore my 'it should be more' as that's just an opinion).

Is it all enough, not to upset the market applecart on Monday? Because this is a damn good close to the week. All is possible tonight, if the analysts update is excluded.

Whatever, a really lovely support base is now in full view that developed over the past 4 days prior to today - and that is the 129 area. Gone is that recent support in the low 122's
- I am prepared to take bets that whatever is thrown at the SP come Monday onwards - 129 should now turn from a ceiling resistance to a wonderful support, and looking at its shape, should take a mountain-busting bomb to break down past it.

So given time, could 129's become seen as the new floor as a buying-in area?
That strategy to be tested on Monday should the market take offence over the latest analysts forecasts.
-------

Updated BT trends below. Just the Intermediate trend to go!
So pleased that the Short Term Trend came in from the cold and finally capitulated to the upside, and joined the Long Term Trend, as felt a bit naked taking a position in BT this week without the Short Term Trend riding shotgun. But as expected it was inching-in continually.

============

BT currently -

200 day ma trend . . . . . . .= BULLISH
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . .= Bearish
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = BULLISH

(All IMO).

Yes, knew you were one of the Famous Five, ND
As you go back further in years in acquiring shares, you hold top spot when on the lecture circuit of:
'How To Make A Profit in BT Shares' :) :)

---------------

" I need £1.46 to break even . . . . "

Haven't worked anything out yet, but reasonably confident you'll be seeing that in due course.

Am due to update all BT's trendlines this weekend (after this retrace damage). Just one trend playing up that will take a few days/weeks more, but my trading trendline I use for everything, finally crossed to the upside tonight; could see it inching closer -so I breathed a little easier as I jumped ship based on the Long Term Trend as my decision-maker on BT early this week - with that plus the short term trend regaining positiveness, things looking up, just the blasted Interim trend is playing up. (This retrace has caused that!)
Forget the Ultra Long term trend - it'll stay negative all year.
(I cobbled it together that way purposely).

Anyway, bought back in to BT at beginning of week and by close of the week, showing a nice little profit.

Anyone else in the fortunate position of belonging to that rarest club in the world? - Being in profit after buying BT's shares LOL!

There must be at least 5 of us by now? :)

Q4 Revenue is given as a £503m which is down on their last forecast,
and the full year revenue is forecast as £21.389bn which bar a single £1m is bang on the same as the last forecast for 2020/21,
- so no change to this years forecast in revenue? (bit weird when the Q4 is forecast to be down).

2nd year 2021/2022 revenue is down again at £21.226bn (again reduced from the last forecast)

3rd year 2022/2023 revenue is down even more than last forecast at £21.240bn

Summary:
V shaped progress in revenue, no clear pattern compared to net profit progress.

-------------

Net Profit showing a disastrous Q4 with a mean of £214m and a median of only £198m thus a forecast of £206m for Q4
- which is simply ludicrous when you consider to-date the running total is £425m produced by BT each quarter.
I dispute this net profit forecast and expect them to unrelentingly keep on increasing every single net profit forecast right up to early May!

Year 1 Net profit forecast for 2020/21 is up again at £1.482bn
Year 2 Net profit forecast for 2021/22 is up again at £1.610bn
Year 3 Net profit forecast for 2022/23 is down slightly at £1.731bn

(IMO this year's net profit will be not be too far off from year 3's forecast!)

Summary:
Net profit is showing nice Y-O-Y increases. Will it be enough for the market next week?

Good observation there, Lee. (Earliest ever publication by them too).

Yep, First Q4 analysts update (and future 3 full years review) came out whilst the market was still open
- and the price not only held, but slightly improved into the close!

-------

Bit dizzy with what I'm seeing in the latest update, so will post again shortly, as not sure whether the price increasing into close means anything positive or whether there's a price to pay for this latest forecast next week.

Revenue continues to disappoint, net profit continues to increase but has taken no notice of the running total of £1276m net profit achieved at Q3 at all, with one of the Q4 forecasts commencing with a £190m-odd (Q3 achieved £1276m over 3 quarters means an average of £425m per quarter) so the extremely low final estimate for Q4 is bonkers in my view.

Still, it is a y-o-y increase over 3 years, unlike the revenue which continues it's V shape progress ie., next year forecast to be lower than this year that closes at the end of March.

Was hoping for a significant increase in net profit in line with the running total as at Q3, as the driver for today's unexpected bounce in the price. Confusing. Will post findings shortly.

Initial observations:
Revenue has been lowered for each and every year and is forecast to be uneven in progress (so what's new? :)

Net Profit, on the surface showing nice increases but undervalued compared to what's already been achieved.

I think it's too much face-loss for them to reappraise to the new likely full year net profit in one swoop, so as they have close to nearly a dozen more updates before the full year publication on May 13th, they can keep increasing every update by the same amount as this one, and no one will notice.

Currently IMO on course for circa £1700m net profit - yet they are forecasting only £1482m net profit - but that is a £17m increase up on their last forecast.
They'll do that regularly right up to May because otherwise they're on course for being seriously adrift.

Does anyone know (of any reason that I'm unaware of) why, with an average of £425m net profit per quarter to date - that they're only forecasting £206m for this Q4?
Despite the CEO saying earlier this month the company is on course to showing BT will deliver impressive profits?

Will post their figures in mo'

52p? Oh that expired into the ether yonks ago. :) (Thought I had it set higher).

February SP progressing nicely in accordance with target estimates don't you think?

" So I doubled my stake in this White Metal producer, not due to "omens" but so that if things go well Monday I can get the T Shirt made up ?? "

--------

Hee hee! Nice one Old White Guy.

( Oops sorry meant White Metal Ox )
:)

In 1929 the herd was saying prices can only ever go up. In 20210 the herd is saying unanimously that Bitcoin is a bubble about to burst. Now year 7 and no bubble bursting (I've witnessed 3 crashes in Bitcoin which it recovered from on each occasion just like the stockmarket as a whole did). Can you live long enough to see the herd's prediction come true?

" When bitcoin bubble goes bang anytime money will also be looking for a home.
Its a no brainer, just patience required..."
----------

I've been reading and hearing this 'no brainer' assertion about Bitcoin for 7 years now. And it's just risen relentlessly. Where's the no brainer in that? Do you mean you expect us to wait another 7 years so you can say - see I knew it was a bubble?

The trouble with these bubble bitcoin rants is that they come from old white guys. Like Buffett who doesn't buy anything he doesn't know about. So he passed on Microsoft, Google et al, and bought more Coca Cola. All the gurus and experts whom I respect are all saying the same as you - bitcoin is a bubble about to burst. It's lasted longer than the South Sea bubbles, Tulip mania, yet old white guys say it's a bubble!

7 years they've been wrong! Broken clocks hoping if we all live long enough it'll all come to pass.
---
International spot gold peaked last summer and has been in a bearish downtrend ever since. Same with CEY, (with added company specific problems of its own)

I will buy CEY when it comes out of this longer term downtrend and not before; same with spot gold. Whilst gold is in a downtrend so shall CEY be the same. When gold enters an uptrend so shall CEY.

- You better hope the bulls in Bitcoin are as wrong as you are about Bitcoin - they claim it's going to dethrone gold as the defacto true storage of value.

Now (whatever meandearings the afternoon brings) at least close on that 130 as the day's close. Don't care if it sits a full month on 130 - just break in to it.

Not into conspiracy theories but 130 finally getting a looksee?
I'm now defo expecting something positive to appear late this evening or tomorrow morning from BT's site :) Coincidence?