Member Info for Velo

For anyone who's interested, JLP came right out of it's overbought condition tonight and lies just on the border. So their real pullback commences from tomorrow onwards. Could be a bit stingy, or if channelling SLP's usual behaviour before today - unnoticeable.

JLP dropped over 3% in one day today, but SLP dropped more with an unusual 5% one-day drop, compared to recent months.

Now that is unusual for SLP - for one day.

(Think that JLP poster has been posting on this forum without social distancing or wearing a mask - that's what caused today's pullback - for sure!!!)

SLP has parked up on a key, smaller trend line, and thus 110 held, as I suspected it would. Gave me a surprise with it throwing a wobbly like that just as I was typing on my phone and fighting auto correct.

Confirmed by rechecking back 6 months and it seems to be the case on each occasion, that the SP always pulls back to the same trend line (which is pleasingly always on the rise generally) on the short-term trends, AND no further, when nothing permanent is afoot.
The only time to be concerned is when the more longer-term, predominant, authoritative trends above it, turn bearish - and they are all bullish to a man.

So officially I am in the "temporary-pullback only" camp of today's SP performance.
- as I am on JLP's imminent pullback
- but don't think that lot will handle it well, I bet, judging by one or two posters over there today.

So parking up circa 110-ish area still fits as, 'not much ado', although after today the SP does carry a bearish label attached to it, as does JLP. So this recent posting of who's performed better recently, is now a moot point, as both have bearish labels around their neck this evening.

And I don't think THS will get off lightly this week either - doesn't it have an upcoming XD day sometime before this week is out?
- So it will take a hit too.
And it looks like getting drawn back into the 120's - the one thing I want to see THS leave for good - the 120's.
But THS's 120's are behaving like the leeches in the African Queen. They'll be all over THS maybe from tomorrow onwards.

So all 3 are taking hits this week, so what will the debate turn to then? - Who can take the hardest punch???

Don't know why we don't write to all 3 CEO's and ask them to slap their todgers on the table and get them measured and see who comes out the winner. That should stop the comparisons for good, eh?

Well, frustrating! Patience called for. The engine's turning over but there's no ignition.

2nd day of the week and although the SP is not falling into the clutches of the bears in this great escape attempt, neither is it stepping decisively into the land of the bulls.

It's like the SP has broken out of the castle dungeons, then jumped from the high castle walls - and landed in the moat below. So it's free, but the Norman guards are riding across the moat drawbridge searching for the SP, unaware we're treading water under the drawbridge as the horses hooves clatter noisily above our heads.
(See; if only the Normans had watched more films during lockdown they'd know that's the first place to look).

I'm just falling short of the prices I'm looking for, and have landed in the moat twice now; not quite free, but then again not quite clear of the bears clutches either.

Using their long term holders experience, both Raymondo and B/Pete are a bit dubious, based on BT's prior history on whether we can make it to freedom, with Raymondo offering:

- "I suspect there will be a retrace from here, but not sure by how much..."

Be interested to hear if Raymondo thinks if the price action 2 days into the week fits with his expectations, or whether he thinks:

No, you can make it to the far bank - under the cover of darkness.

And we have got Robin Hood here to help, too (ie., most of the bullish trend lines) but he's come along without his bow and arrows. (The Interim trend is still bearish; and echoing Raymondo and B/Pete's sentiments).

However - If at first you don't succeed then...

1 :)
133 close for tomorrow and we're up & out on the opposite bank - and legging it!

2 :(
129 and the Normans are hauling us out of the moat by the scruff of our necks and it's likely all over for the SP and back to the damp, dark, dungeons.

3) (
130 close and it's yet another night in the freezing moat hiding under the drawbridge.

- What do you think Raymondo? Is it looking bad, or not too bad?

Bangrak I look at other indicators in conjunction with the RSI to get a fuller picture. Gotta go and see what's what, the world is front running ahead of my posts LOL!

Crikey! The delayed LSE forum SP was on 116 when I last looked before typing below (takes me ages on the phone (typos) but speedier on my desktop) But even looking at 113- I alter not a word of my post below unless the SP breaks through 110 area.

Must say I was as expecting this in March - not now.

And just noticed 110 as I post!!! Events are running ahead faster than I can bl@@dy type.
Need to get off here pronto and get to my live prices charts!

" We certainly appear to be rather range bound at the moment "

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Disagree. (He said in a conversationally pleasant manner :)

- The truth is the SP is in a very slight & gentle pullback and has been for the past 5 trading days (from circa last Wed).

And that's because the SP is descending out of just kissing the overbought entry barrier but not breaking up through in to it, probably because the last big break through into extreme overbought condition is just a few weeks ago that commenced in the dying days of December and terminated approx in the third week of January.

From then, it pulled back recovering in February - and raced back up to the overbought barrier yet again, from which, last Wed it has just retreated from once more.

I've posted before SLP is such a strongly performing hot stock that it's a characteristic of the breed that overbought conditions abound and oversold are a lesser seen breed. Indeed the very first oversold I see I will be out with a big butterfly net and my cheque book collecting as many on offer SLP shares as my net can catch :)

JLP is hot at the moment and is moving up even deeper over into overbought condition. In fact all indicators are at extreme levels., so a cheaper entry for top-up's or new entrants may be available soon. Or like SLP, it could stay overbought greater than is usual defying pundits like myself who think these hot stocks will react like run of the mill stocks. (They don't, they're rule breakers :)
They can defy convention longer than you are used to seeing on "normal" run of the mill uninspiring performers.

I'm happy with the SLP's SP performance over Jan and Feb and am quite content should Feb close in the vicinity of where the SP is intraday right now as that would give just about a double figure % gain for Feb - and at the start of Jan, the forecast for both months was something like high 20% to into a 30%+ gain and that's still on the cards based on probabilities.

Where will this current lityle pullback end? Can only guess - it's on a key trend line right now so may peter out descending here in the mid teens or go to the next at circa 110 area before recovering it's predominant trajectory which is, and has been for many a year - up up and away :)

: )

I know lockdown can sometimes drive us a bit loopy, but is it wise to be posting on the Internet straight after consuming so much alcohol this late at night?
No offence meant :)

Au1 @ "Velo
You usually find boring companies have a low Pe and ones with growth have higher"

Hee! Just to confound the matter Autonomy1, that 140% up on the SP for profit, producer I mention below is a very very fast growing highly profitable performer that had an extremely low PE ratio of just PE2 when I bought in last year. It's produced interim results today that again for revenue and net profit are 40%and 70% up on last year which was similar the year before that!

Yet the forward PE ratio has only climbed to PE4!!!!

Mad mad world investing, sometimes. :)

Thanks Dagger. A word of caution.

On day to day practical matters of CEY I have limited knowledge on say the repair/consequences of the Sukari site and similar matters like the individual abilities of the BOD so more experienced holders on here are the better choice.

I tend to focus on trends, TA indicators, Trading, profit & Loss balance sheets accountancy matters. I can traverse all those onto any stock, at will, at a moments notice.

On precious metals per se, I'm quite weak despite being nearly 140% up on a pladdium/rhodium producer that I've held for less than a year and a bit less than that on a a gold miner. Some of the guys on those 2 sites I need an interpreter to understand what they're saying as it's all gobbledygook to me :)

" .... although I often indulge in .... industry average v stock P/E, ...."

Quick example using CEY.

Forward P/E ratio for CEY is PE10.4
The Industry average is also low at PE 9.71

- Which means either a) CEY is marginally still slightly expensive, and the average SP for CEY should be circa 101.8p

Or, CEY is rated by the market as a premium stock even though the price has been fallng for a considerable time, the market still rates it higher than its peers. You decide :)

If the former then could the 101/102 area be the floor? :)

Don't ask me LOL! I couldn't possibly comment. But there other methods that I haven't even looked at - PE calc is dead fast and easy hence I showed that as an example. For fun only.

- Off for me tea.

A1 @- "So you buy at 1.50 what upside do you then see I presume it's long term "

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First 150 may have long gone by then, at the current rate, should the SP hover around its present location for an extended period, then the 200 could be down by a huge amount come summer, so wouldn't like to buy at 150 this week at all :)

Strategy wise I can never answer what the upside price will be, and privately snort in derision at all pros and all gurus as well as fellow PI's when a target price is chosen for the future.

I am a trend follower so I stay in the game until the trend changes, ie., Let the trend be your friend and all that and I get out when the trend bends/ends :)

So an "upside" SP never comes into my strategy although I often indulge in fibbo calcs, industry average v stock P/E, and Discounted cashflow calcs for future SP's, and self-calculated pivot points (mine differ from the free site variety) which are often pretty accurate - until I place money on them - but then seem to work faultlessly when I don't place money on a stock LOL :(

Correct Au1 - the higher end of the 150's too!
A friggin' huge distance away.

Buying when price is below the 200 practically GUARANTEES failure.

Unless you have some way of knowing the SP is about to receive a dose of rocket fuel in its morning coffee. And by that I mean some kind of good news event etc.,

What usually happens if this downtrend peters out but consolidates around here, is that the 200 gently and slowly (slower than you can ever imagine) gently descends, so making life easier for a now wounded SP to sail up past above it.

Could be a long wait. Patience - anyone got a bargain going on a bag o patience with chips?

What can also happen is something unexpected occurs (black swan event) I duuno, say something happens to gold, and suddenly the SP is in demand, then the SP could start racing up to meet the descending 200, they kiss, make up, and the SP leaves the 200 in its rear view mirror.

If the gambler comes out in me, in those circumstances I sometimes take a tiny position, but I usually regret even that. You have to be sure something has changed big time, not opinion but factual, whatever - and you know the SP is not going to be a false positive journey, as very often they can fail again when they first meet up with the 200 average.

I have a variety of trend lines in tow, so could easily take a position on one knowing I'll jump ship on a small profit that was still well short of the 200 average.

Well for Tuesday now -
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Damn it! Wanted 133 minimum close for Monday.

Thought 132 might suffice but it rode into town too late, and got bushwhacked in the final minutes.

At least the day closed well away from bearish territory, but it means tougher targets for tomorrow IMO.

Where today I was keen to see 133, now Tuesday I need to see a 134 close to be sure the downtrend is dead good an' proper.
And worse, instead of fearing 128, now I have to fear 129 tomorrow. Nearly sh@t myself when 127 swanned about in the opening minutes. Why was there no security on the door?!?!!

Whatever, was going to top up on Tuesday if a 133 close, but will be a bit more choosy until I see a comprehensive victory - and that means for Tuesday - first up on the gallows I need to see, is 134!

Dagger -
You should be aware that the all the powerful longer term trends are still bearish; so are the medium to shorter term trends too
- but worst of all the SP is seriously below the 200 day average.

YOU CAN'T FIGHT AND BEAT THOSE. DON'T EVEN TRY.
(Well you can if you join them by taking up a short position).

It's the No:1 reason us PI's lose money - telling the market what it should be doing.

I'm sniffing around CEY so waiting for the trends to change, which means (patience) I don't guess floors, but often for fun join in with others guestimating the floor.

But ultimately I just don't trust my own human emotions when it comes to the stock market. Only cold unemotional data.

At the moment, whatever I, you, or anyone else thinks, ultimately market sentiment is still (CURRENTLY) bearish towars CEY - surely you can see that?

I do though like how it's skimming along now only slightly downwards; not diving deeply at the moment,a little more parallel, rangebound, skimming along for a significant time and a flat base could develop - and they always end in an explosive breakout - to the upside, IMO.

In the spirit of: If you can't beat 'em - join 'em, I'm waiting for the market sentiment to turn first and then do just that - follow the uptrend.
Often that means I miss the absolute bottom lowest price, as waiting for the turn means missing out on the lowest price and vica-versa when selling.
What's left is the bulk of the meat on the bone.

Danny/W -

The first downtrend was merely what I class as the Ultra Short Term Trend kicking in.

Tonight it's gathered pace and has triggered off the Short Term Trend to do likewise.

So that's 2 short term trends that have turned bearish. I have another half dozen trends above those that are all resolutely the polar opposite - steadfastly bullish.

The most important of them all, internationally, the 200 day trend is also absolutely bullish.

So this stock is still in a strong, bullish uptrend, as the higher level trends are the "predominant" trends and thus rule over the smaller movements.

However, I think the shorter term trends aren't done yet; hence my shark like fin breaking the surface of the sea. I'm hunting. I want this stock.

I also think the SP is overpriced too. But it doesn't matter what I, you or anyone else thinks - only what the market sentiment thinks - and the longer term trends are iron-clad bullish,
- but these two smaller trends that have turned bearish are fine cracks in your vessel windows, if it holds, if it develops, it could infect the the more powerful trends above it, and a full retrace could ensue. Not looking likely at all tonight.
So regard it as a mere pullback and relax.

In other words what you are seeing is considered "noise" or "zig-zagging", because of course, you know most SP's never travel in a ruler-edged straight line, does they?

I have to decide is this as low a bargain as I can get in for, or is there more to come.

We'll see :)

Typo!
" SLP in that same time has 5xbagged! Again crikey!"
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Should have been:

SLP in that same time has almost 5x bagged! Again crikey!

Look at what he wrote in para's 3 and 4
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"... I think the BT share price has become one of the best opportunities in the FTSE 100.

There are a handful of reasons why I think the company’s outlook is improving, most obviously because Velo has just bought back in, but first of all, management has changed direction...."

Tiger - Small point but I wouldn't use the term inferior to describe JLP, after all before last spring both THS and JLP's SP performance to years further back were truly lacklustre in actual SP-wise poor returns. From last spring JLP has 8 x bagged! Crikey!
SLP in that same time has 5xbagged! Again crikey!
And THS has 3xbagged! Despite the lower return in SP performance a 3 bagger in less than a year is still worth of a - crikey!

I refuse to label JLP as inferior in any comparisons except if you want to limit the comparisons to assets in the ground only :)

As an investor/trader I never lose sight of who's bringing the bacon home in terms of SP appreciation. Before spring THS SP performance had been hmm no not dire... hmm - "unpleasantly undesirable" as was JLP's.

The most bagged SP over 6 years goes to only one of those 3 candidates - and as you know, you're posting from within it :) There are investors inhabiting this board who are in the fortunate position of holding stock that have 14xbagged for them to date. Some with even higher than that. All 3 are worthy.

Yes, Fleccy - RYA ; that's not been on any of my watchlists for sometime now.

Back in the day I had in-laws and relatives that were and still are, mad about Ireland. One Christmas they were talking about how cheap the Ryanair flights were and the Euro etc., so quietly looked into the SP of RYA when I returned home after Xmas.

Was visiting again the following year and complained I could have bought RYA for 9 last Xmas as it was now 15 and therefore could have been sitting on a 50% profit. The SP meandered for the next year or two perhaps as high as 18 before retracing once again back to below 10 and once again I let it lie there, whereupon it lifted to eventually the 15's again.

Talk about nashing teeth!

I notice (thanks for the update in your chart) it's back to circa 16 as if no March crash had occurred and no lockdown in the airlines either! What can you say except - The luck of the Irish, eh? :)

LOL!