Member Info for Velo

Thanks for the heads-up on that DonaV. J

Jan Du Plessis's main claim to fame whilst at BT will probably over time go down as:
"Headed up an aggressive removal of an under performing CEO, and the mishandling (bad press; preferred choice candidate's much publicised boasting and sneering account to media how he delighted in turning down approaches by BT ) whilst overseeing the appointment of a new CEO.

Seconded. Is there any way of being provided with as many annual accounts as is permitted? As all my usual sources show not a penny bean as if the company only started trading this year LOL. Surely some annual accounts are publicly permissable? Very, very interested - but not investing until I see some.

Concludes . . .

. . . For anyone with an eidetic memory, they may recall in a post my surprise some months back of the SP sailing past the 200 day trend all in one swift movement - all in one day - on the Tuesday following the Covid vaccine announcement; and the SP since that date has never returned to it - so I posted a curse/mandate that from now on, a chase is underway in which the SP must stay one step ahead of the 200 for the rest of its life as if pursued by some Mississippi prison guards being led by a pack of yelping hounds through the swamps hot on the SP's tracks. I think this could be that ultimate encounter.

Should the SP flirt or close on or around 116's (and it is by no means certain, then I reckon this is what this recent retrace has all been leading up to - a decisive victory by one side or the other is called for.

Is that what the bears are intent on bagging? Because when coming down to the 200, support fate always favours the SP.

The opposite when trying to break up through it - hence both my surprise and delight back on that Tuesday in November - it whupped the 200 in one punch all done and dusted - by a 5 time (years) loser, too!

If 116's gets visited - My opinion? Good enough bullish trend on display by the long term trend to signal the retrace is over, despite losing the Ultra short term trend to the downside this week. Not to mention another 2 trends still looking very bearish. (The number of tends turning bearish is ominous).

But first, that 122 area is no mincing wimpy area. It could all end there and 122 has already been visited on Friday. I just don't know if that was it, or a prelude to a knock-out punch and take it down it and the lower 120's next week on a stretcher.

Worse case scenario? IMO should 116's be broken through and with it the 200 day trend, and the SP continues downwards, then it would signal the complete failure of this hugely significant breakout that commenced back in early November.

116 is the last stand, the Alamo. But first 122 might surprise yet. The bears have two strong areas to overcome.

- That's if they can, that is. It is not a foregone conclusion.

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If I have a 'fear' for Monday it's a close on or worse, than 121 - so don't go there.

Hee! Fleccy down there, showing his bloodline goes way back to JP Morgan who when asked what the stock market will do next replied: It will fluctuate.

And my profit? Bear in mind, with BT, I must be down into the £400's-only profit by now, LOL!

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So, where are we in readiness for next week? Can't decide, similar to Fleccy's it will fluctuate reply, I have 2 or 3 scenarios - and I await to see which path the SP is on.

All last week, the SP kept displaying intraday prices that would mean a return to a bearish state of trend if closed on them by end of day - but it always (until Friday) closed on a neutral pivotal point each night. Annoyingly it flirted with 127 intraday never but closing on it, on a couple of days - but never the opposite of what I was seeking 133's or 134 - not even an intraday flirt.

Then on Friday it soiled itself and did what it had been threatening all week and closed on 127, clearly signalling it had made a decision and a return to a bearish route had been chosen. That was bad, but not too bad on the night it closed on 127, but on Friday it exceeded my worst expectations and closed below the first support of the day 125, and worse - burst through past the next support closing the day at 123!

I was shocked.
I had believed that 122 would act as a floor, but much to my amazement not only did it close on 123 but flirted with - 122 during that day! Yikes.

So the first option to consider is: Did that intraday visit to 122 and being rejected from passing through, and closing higher at 123 - signal the final depth of the descent?
Or is the SP determined to close menacingly on 122 - or worse, lower next week before being thoroughly rejected in the lower 120's and only then return to the upside?

I'm extremely concerned how the SP handles what I perceive is a key floor the 122-ish area.

Because the next option is breaking down through it. Tonight I don't anticipate the SP closing down outside the 120's on Monday, and if it did, I would expect it to do so over several days tooing and frooing beforehand.

So what if the SP's true intent is even worse and below the 120's completely?

If so, I am 100% convinced that is where the bears would end up in barbed wire and if 100-teens is the destination, then for added back-up the decisive and mighty 200 day trend currently resides at circa 116's. If you believe in dark forces manipulating the SP down, then breaking the 200 day trend might be the target
- but a wider market audience might well overwhelm the bears at that level.

For anyone with an eidetic memory, they may recall in a post, my surprise some months back of the SP sailing past the 200 day trend all in one swift movement - all in one day - on the Tuesday following the succesful Covid vaccine announcement and the SP since that date has never returned to it - so I posted a curse/mandate that

Continues > > >

Concludes . . .

. . . With SLP showing so many 100% positives - for curiosity started Googling specialist sites last summer, in seasonality forecasting data and was surprised to find quite a thriving underground community of them, one of them let slip of the hedge funds, and institutions et al that subscribe to their services (they were big on indices, as it was indices that were my particular interest when I Googled last year).

I was starting to fall for the soft sell on the home pages as each boasted of their documented success for their clients, so seductively I was induced to take a peek at their subscription page (US sites) and what I saw made me click out and never visit again as they wanted triple digits £££'s subscription rates - PER MONTH! They can feck orff :) :)

" . . . and those 'averagey' gains you talk of in the flat months to come . . . "

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Morning Stoodio,

Feel I should expand a little on methodology. I describe them as averagey because the computer is 100% "certain" that Jan/Feb & July/Aug will be the best performing months of the year.
Ego: therefore all other months must be averagey.
I may have given the impression that means "flat".

However, the computer is actually saying the months of between March and June are of insufficient reliability to be taken as valid and so are displaying low percentages of reliability. (And for the most; single digit % gains).
So they could be flat, could be not half bad, or one or two might end up within spitting distance of the best performing months - because the computer has no confidence in the reliability outcome for those months. If it said 100% confidence of a single digit performance then that would be wholly different matter.

So the computer is not at all confident anyone can draw a safe conclusion. When I posted that of the spring/early summer season, March is likely to flat, that's the % gain the computers are showing but it has no strong faith in its own conclusions.

It's actually forecasting a gain of 0.8% gain for March but is shrugging its shoulders splaying upturned palms sideways, saying 50/50 chance of that occurring by displaying only 50% confidence.

50% chance of accuracy is an inadequate percentage to even think of posting under 1% gain for March - could be anything, so will be glancing at immediate indicators and ultra short term trends for March; if I even bother as long term trends say all is v strongly bullish.

However, I'm personally holding the view of a close on Monday of between 122 and 117 with a tilt towards the lower end of that range rather than the higher end. My confidence of that occurring? . . . hmmm well-less than 50% :)
So see what comes out in the wash :)

Incidentally, I only ever look occasionally at historic seasonality data whenever I'm interested in taking a position in a stock and I muse to myself: I wonder if it has a low spot in the year and if it's nearby as that might be a good month buy. To see 100% confidence ratings is not rare but it is uncommon, and SLP has 5 months of them for this year, now that's outstanding!

- Five!
Jan/Feb,
July/Aug
and new entrant for 2021 - November!
(With a 100% probability forecast of 9.6% gain in Nov).

(It's showing Aug as the likely recipient to receive the Month of the year award at a whopping 23% gain!

With SLP showing so many 100% positives - for curiosity started Googling specialist sites last summer, in seasonality forecasting data and was surprised to find quite a thriving underground community of them, one of them let slip of the hedge funds, and institutions et al that subscribe to their services (they were big on indices, as it was indices that were my particular interest when I Googled last year).

Continues .... > >

Yes, mra1984 - I've been reading similar too.

I call it the unused to success syndrome.

Something not exclusive to others but ourselves too. Take myself for example.

I made a complete and utter mess of topping-up last summer/autumn and achieved NIL top-up's from September up to currently. So maybe after my posts below, March might be the perfect month for me to place smaller top-up's to try and break the duck as placing too high a top-up can induce such anxiety?

My inability to achieve top-up's and those reports by the writers you highlight is the same disease I reckon. Too much prior failure induces recency bias so leaves us unprepared for when success and opportunity comes knocking.

If they have influence as you claim, then like another poster further below - then bring it on :) I need those top-up's before the SP travels any higher.

Supplement for the spring/summer:

March to June is showing as low confidence in accuracy varying from 50% confidence to 75% confidence. (Jan/Feb & July/Aug were all 100% confidence in target acquired) and are also currently showing 100% confidence for this summer's July & Aug.
(Could tell you what they chattering about for the big gains in July/Aug but don't want to embarrass them as they cheat right up to the last minute AND during the month in question. They just never stop.

Also from time to time, they do the computer equivalent of saying:
We can't get it up tonight, sorry - and so are showing 0% confidence for June, so will have to look into that, and what's upsetting them for June this year.

So March is showing as quite a flat month with the following months up to June with reasonable small gains (you can only have best performing months of the year if by definition, the others are 'ordinary/pedestrian/averagey') but as low as their confidence is, they still show gains for each month; just not enough to knock your socks off that's all.

June I'm labelling as the Joker in the pack - as it could literally be anything - according to the computer, who are refusing to be drawn on the matter.

Cue droll voice: The computer says no.

Just tidying up to close the chapter on historic seasonal averages in SLP which as a holder have been most pleasing, to say the least.

I held back in posts from before Jan 2021 of stating a definitive expectation for the high returns periods of Jan& Feb to give the algo's time to calculate from the very latest starting point, but on Jan 1st (market still closed) I posted somewhat generically the following:

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" Jan/Feb '21 historically over the last 5 years (the annual second best performing period) is showing a couple of single % points just short of a 30% increase across the 2 months alone.
(Nearly 12% for Jan) suggesting Jan closes in the v high 90's
- with Feb showing a near 15% increase confirming the SP at long last being seen in triple figures ".
-----------------------

JAN:
On the first trading day of 2021 (Jan 4th) the SP closed on 89p so I used that. And never felt the need to adjust the high 90's suggestion in probabilities by the pre-Jan 4th historic data.

January closed on 102p - so an actual gain of 14.6% gain for January, so halfway there for the 2 month cumulative forecast as shown by the historic data. So far so good. On to February -

FEB:
On the first trading day of February (2nd of Feb) the SP closed on 107p and went on to close the month on Friday at 120.50p a gain of 12.6%

So a cumulative gain across the 2 months of 27.2% (or statistically speaking a true 35.4% gain from start to finish) but I'm not doing it like that. I'm tracking the historical seasonal data that is done "month by month" same as the computers
- so I'm presenting 27% gain as the two individual months.

Now refer to the Jan 1st post whereby the same method threw up circa 30%. Clearly that gain sits between the two, but don't care; I'm well happy with the final result - from a 30% gain suggestion at the outset to an actual 27% gain in separate months.

-

However, what did the algo's end the period saying as likely? They don't know all trading for Feb has ceased so are still fighting it out
(Well they're right cheats, they adjust every single day right up to the last day. In human terms we call that cheating :) :) :)

Anyway by Friday's close the algo's were expecting 16.3% gain for January and 19.4% for February. Their final answer. (Or is that their forecast for 2022?)
So by the very last day actual reality shafted the computer technology in February did it not? And also a little for January too :) What you were expecting perfection? LOL! :) :)

A similar thing happened in July/August when actual reality beat the computer forecasts by a massive margin. Which was damn good to start with anyway, but reality was even better.

Any way, well done to the computer technology and well done to Stoodio - for keeping up the side for the humans! As a 120/125 close to February Is pretty much in the same box IMO. All-in-all ? Well pleased, as in - Kerching! £££ LOL!

Good luck Zico. All being well it should only be temporary on my part. Still believe BT has commenced a somewhat confusing change to a bull trend. But with UK stocks I need all my ducks lined up in the right order. BT has form in punishing otherwise :)

Hee! Yes, so it is Stoodio :)
127 - Where no man has gone before and all that LOL!

Was contemplating a post earlier to tbtt below, asking why not a single poster on THS yesterday, mentioned in it was XD day because there were numerous laments of: Why isn't the SP rising because of this that and t'other, as we should be much higher etc.,
- and noticed the price above was showing 125 so cancelled it thinking:

No, on such an historic occasion first honours with a 125 label attached to the left of their post should go to Stoodio, so left it :)

But your post is still the first in new territory anyway :)

Bugger! Let the day develop until nearly half an hour had elapsed to let the market settle and control any pannicky reactions by myself in the first 'cowboy' period of the day, yet despite expecting 125 I thought it would be an end of day close yet within that first half hour 125p itself was showing on my screen.

Seeing it that early was worse than my expectations and I thought forget day trading all day trying to pick off the best price - so after a few minutes got a quote for near enough last night's close, better than the 125 that had been showing, and after broker's fee only a tenner worse than the amount showing last night - so all in all approx £59 loss. Nothing. Out intact.
(Got 127.09p and the trade was accepted).

If it was going to get worse than 125 at such an early hour I was going to hack it through enemy territory as best I could, because I still hold the opinion that the SP is developing into a new bullish trend. But timing is all. So didn't want to hold 'hoping' whilst in a deepening worsening position.

Some thought required on my part, in BT stock. Myself. and the future.

Hi Stoodio,

Just time for a quick post before turning in for the night, and to say thank you for an illuminating and thoughtful response.
- Appreciated.

Lots of interesting observations in there. I commend it to others - I shall be returning to it myself when time, for further consideration.

.

Points that remain in mind:
-------------------------------

"I was chuckling at the £1.10"

"I have studied percentage movements after news"

"I wasn't phased by the £1.10 as it was ever so clear (to me anyway)"

"nothing short of the loosening up of some stops and order filling as I've seen on many occasions here"

"I was confident it would spring back as a certainty to test £1.20 in quick order"

------------------------------

I found it brimming with considered confidence and decisive decision making, I like it.

It's clarified something that I was privately thinking but didn't reveal.
Sort of guessed it wasn't random-for-fun guesswork, but bona fide strategies to reach a conclusion. Very interesting, thanks :)

Apologies: Overlooked sprinkling IMO's all over the place in my post below.

All on course IMO for that 125 tomorrow. In fact could the SP go further and might 127 show its face tomorrow? :)

-

Mid-day yesterday (Wed) It didn't seem possible that in 2 and half days time the whole train set could be put back on track to come in "on budget" :)
But barring an accident it looks a done deal tonight. Have a question for Stoodio.

Utter honesty is required or we learn nothing from others experiences.

Stoodio: After seeing circa 110 intraday and finally Wednesday's close circa 114 - did you truly believe that the whole show could be turned around in 2 and a half days? (7% increase today alone).
- Or were you preparing for a worse case scenario of accepting a lower close to the month end than previously thought?

I ask, because the strategy I was employing was indicating to stay the course - the end of the month, if probabilities function, will most likely align with Stoodio's 125. But human emotions always, always, get in the way. Both Stoodio and I and others have oodles of leeway in so much as profit created from holding SLP
- but when we find ourselves either as newly invested or faced with the prospect of perhaps receeding below our initial stake money, such a day can cause us to weaken our pre-planned resolve and let immediate emotion make the decisions for us.

So, which is it Stoodio; were you unrepentantly confident, or did dropping to 110/114 dent confidence - until tonight's close? :)

(Don't think personally, I felt gung-ho confident when I posted of stick to your guns - can do it all in 2 and a half day's - as I certainly do after tonight's close :)

I'm issuing a Tactical Retreat! Lost the battle tonight! I'm being airlifted out tomorrow. Live to fight another day. Yada yada yada.

Tiny loss - double figures only (might be less if time to pick and choose exit tomorrow).

It's the one thing I'm proud of - after some half a dozen assaults by the zombie bears of BT and after some 3 or more years of trying to defeat them, I'm technically still in profit after all these forays behind enemy lines.

And there's only one way I've remained in profit and that is retreating when the battle is lost, and doing so ASAP.
Result? Funds still in intact to plan another attack. Battle lost, but the war is not.
I could be back - parachuted in behind enemy lines within weeks. Not sure. It's that new uncertainty I have to remove from the equation.

Biggest concern for the last day of the month is 125 as it's on the cards for putting in an appearance - tomorrow! Hell's-a-coming!

And after it being p!ss easy to see 130 at some stage each day of this week - no longer. In fact close on 130 tomorrow and my retreat will be a huge tactical error as for tomorrow, closing on 130 would turn the whole game around - but it won't - it's gone for the foreseeable.

Biggest mistake? Hiring a man in green ladies tights as a warrior - Could have booked Liam Neesom from Rob Roy, telling the Normans: I have a particular set of skills. I will find you. And I will kill you.

But I thought no, the Normans would only nod to each other in whispers and talk about me behind my back, if they saw me replace a bloke in tights with one wearing a skirt.

BT is a worldwide toughie to crack and make a profit out of it via the SP alone. So I'm protecting what embarrassingly little profit I have left in BT (still in a little cumulative profit; stake money unharmed) I'm going to ground and planning the next assault. This is a temporary setback; I'm just cashing in the insurance policy to survive as don't expect 120's to completely give way - but I'm not sure - so insurance policy redemption enacted until I am.

I shall return. I'll be back.

Getting more concerned at the number of days this week that 127 dares to show it's face each day. When all I ever want to see is the same thing reversed occasionally and a 133 or 134 flash up intraday - but never so far. Not once. (Or did it, as I may have missed it?)

So Friday is looking like a BT "house insurance" decision day for me.

One way or t'other I need to firm up a decision. This can't go on. It could sit all next week and next month in the mid 130's and I wouldn't turn a hair, but these dangerously toxic retraces back into 120's are quite threatening.

Insurance policy decision is growing within me.

Tsk! This phone is causing me a lot of mither this week.

Actually N/pleeze Toad didn't beat you to the punch :)
Credit where credit's due
- Bazzaman beat you both to the punch mid evening yesterday, but I didn't get a chance to read it until midnight last night. :)

Can't have too much of a good thing though :)

Actually N/pleeze Toad didn't beat you to the punch :)
Credit where credit's due
- Bazzaman beat you both to the punch mid evening yesterday, but I didn't get a chance to read it until midnight last night. :)

Can't have too much of a good thing though :)