Member Info for Velo

Hee! The opposite - And I just terminated an outstanding Buy-limit order set at 125 after my 139 purchase :)

Apart from unusual events and 'normal' pullback zig-zagging - topping-up at regular below average lows, is for me now too much of a catch a falling knife, with a 5 year history of this stock doing just that - falling and falling virtually non-stop.

For instance one stock I bought this time last year is over 160% up to date with the bulk of it's momentum gains occurring from late summer onwards, not from last March. It's just hit another ATH today and has had a new ATH every month since late last summer. No lows of significance occured, just minor pullbacks after a big retrace at the height of summer.

As I'm buying a stock (BT) that I expect (in general) to rise from here on in, I expect to add higher and higher, because if the SP fails to progress higher and higher then I have badly miscalculated and my next 'sell' will be my last ever in BT.
If BT is truly changing for the better from now on, I should only be able to add at higher entry points.

I do though expect opportunistic pullbacks and zig-zagging beyond our ken, but huge retraces that destroy the predominant long term trends I do not accept as characteristic of an uptrending stock.

So won't be so quick to sell this tranche - but if forced to do so, will accept the inevitable and retire my interest in BT indefinitely, until the smoke clears.

I'm convinced until the data proves otherwise that this is the best opportunity BT is displaying of ending the past 5 year malaise, so deep retraces don't interest me in this particular stock because of it's longer term history.

Upwards and onwards - or nothing; as the divi wouldn't keep me.

Mind you since late last summer, new ATH's have been created every single month onwards. Watch you don't get scalded when you're pressing keys on your keyboard when on the SLP page, because this stock is H-h-h-h -O-T!

. . . New all time (intraday) high achieved this morning
- as previous ATH was 127 (last month).

Although I missed my preferred entry opportunity of taking a position with the 135/137 spread margin this morning, I settled for 139.

Taking the 3 bullish days at the end of last week I was thinking upper 130's was the safe area limit - but on Sunday I looked again and concluded 135 was more the central area of those 3 days.

So my view is any pull backs that descend no further than the 135-ish area raises the probabilities of momentum continuing bullishly - whilst a sustained period of days/weeks deep in the lower half of the 130's raises the probabilities of the SP retracing further south.

Probabilities only. As iffy areas around unusual spiky days to be more certain

The somewhat easier method is to follow the predominant trend and as currently that is mainly bullish I'm reasonably comfortable so far.

There was an article about Du Plessis personal decision over leaving (either in someone's links on here or it floated across my phone screen) in which it related that he had taken a long holiday (sounded like early on in the pandemic as it was abroad) where he had a heart to heart talk with his wife and they weighed it all up and decided to throw the towel in. He could have fought but the article sounded like he taken a weary "ah feck' em all' attitude and packed it in.

Didn't sound like he had to be dragged kicking and screaming, more like he grew tired of it all, or it wore him down.

And of course the ubiquitous IG.

But if you're at the stage of struggling to find a broker that offers SLP then IG is far too dangerous to consider because of the "attractions" they offer just a click away.

Yes HL,
AJ Bell
and cheapo fees platform, iWeb

all offer SLP no problemo.

Had trouble with broker and switching back o check etc., and lost a small penny or so in the delay but bought back in for 139 this morning. A small tranche so can take advantage of dips.

Would like to rescind my former outlook for March (based on historic-data seasonality price action alone, and nothing else) and now disown the computer's low confidence, poor and indifferent forecast for March.

As of this morning I'm of the opinion March is more likely to develop to Stoodio's posts of anticipated satisfaction, rather than the indifferent performing month, prior posts of mine had indicated.

I think the algo's have been unduly influenced by the performance of last year's (2020) month of March!
(As rather, it should be seen like all market crashes as what is essentially, a reset point rather than a guide point).

So dug into the data this Sunday morning and took out March of 2020 from the data and what a difference to the results.
Did the same by taking out the whole of 2020 for balance and added an earlier year just outside the data point, and much the same result held.

So, far from March performance being indifferent, it now shows that without the March 2020 data, to expect a not-unreasonable gain for March (but not in the territory of the big hitters of the Jan/Feb & July/Aug months).

So not expecting a poor performing March, but a month of things ticking along nicely. Which can't be said for June.

Coming off the fence for June which is too much for the algo's who refuse to show any confidence whatsoever. I am now adamant that June will more likely than not, no longer be the joker in the pack, but the worst performing month this year. A stinker month!
But whatever, being fully invested by the commencement of July is a must. Odds are too great for anything other than a stellar performance in July and August.

Summary:
March to May fit within the 'normal' positive performance parameters (outside of the big hitting winning months)
- with June holding the wooden spoon as likely to be the stinker month of the year, with that month going on to close lower, than it opens.

March good :) - - June bad :(

You're welcome Nige.
Well 160 would certainly do it - as nothing would shout breakout!!! louder than a 160 SP :)

ITV's 5 year down trend is akin to dropping a bouncing ball down a long flight of stairs with it's many numerous peaks and troughs as it bounced down each step along the way, whereas BT's 5 year down trend has been like the SP went down a giant slide with very few peaks and troughs of note.

" since the late Dec '15/January 2020 peak."

Oh dear- typo!

- Replace Dec '15 - with Dec '19

( Concludes . . . )

If you want to say the January peak that most stocks achieved worldwide last year was an extraordinary event that pushed the markets towards a crash and just rule it out as an uncharacteristic period, I can go with that because it was an extraordinary period leading up to March last year.

So, that leaves the minor peak before before the late Dec '15/Jan '20 peak of circa a further 10p north of ITV's current price to break past and above it. It's close, so will it do it?
That's presupposing it's the right decision to ignore the whole March crash arena period of last year.

You're left with this:
Apart from the March period, no new SP peak in ITV has ever gone higher than any previous peak. Just 10p higher than Friday's close would only equal the previous peak (before the March crash entire area).

Also another route is possible: it's entirely possible to not close this peak any higher - yet not go on to retrace as low as the previous low of last summer/autumn in the 55/60 range. That instead could be an achievement too.

So, yes the trends on ITV mostly look bullish, but the ultra long term trend, is waiting to see if the SP can start delivering higher peaks and higher lows before it too will turn bullish - IMO.

Fundamentals look sound. (Undervalued too - but not as much undervalued as BT). So it's not an expensive stock.
Debatable how much lower revenue and profit, that the market will accept next Tuesday, but from what I can tell, the lower revenue and lower net profit expected, should be the final, ultimate floor on Tuesday.
Trend lines are good.
But a little bit more from the SP required to ensure no return to that 5 year downtrend.

So far, ITV's SP has performed well since last summer - much bullishly stronger than BT's SP has done in the same period.

(Temporary hijack)
- ITV -
- This post for NigeCo only.
===============
" Hi Velo, on here mate if you wouldn't mind. Cheers."

Okay Nige, let's get this done.

----------------------

ITV currently -

200 day ma trend . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH
-
Ultra Long term trends . . . .= Bearish
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . = BULLISH

(All IMO).

-------------------

All looking mostly good on the trends above, yes? But what's that Ultra Long Term trend looking so unhappy about?

Similar to BT the SP has been in a 5 year long term, downtrend since the v beginning of 2016. And only recently appears to be exiting that downtrend - and commenced doing so straight after the last year's March crash, whereas BT didn't do so until November of last year; hence ITV's Long Term Trend is much healthier and stronger looking.
So, all good to go then, as the more senior the trend the more authority it carries with the SP? ("Ultra's" are a special case).

Weeell - first, just glance at the 5 year price action and see if you agree -

Since 2016 the Longer Term trends and the important 200 day trend have been weaving above and below the price, muddying the water with false positives and false negatives, whilst all the while the SP was retracing constantly in an overall 5 year down trend. But spent longer periods below price than above; hence the long term downtrend. But is it over?

It's like this:
Each new high in that time period has closed lower than the previous major high and worse, each new low has been lower than the prior major lows.
(ie., Lower highs and lower lows).
- It's currently at the top end vicinity of one of the current new highs - but the trends overall are looking great :)

The bull run up to Jan 2020 did breakout and for the first time since 2016 made a higher high then any that had gone before!
But the SP starting retracing immediately, culminating in the terrible crash in March where it went and produced the lowest low by a huge margin in comparison to what had gone on before.

This current peak (apart from the failed attempt last June) is the first attempt at a new high since the late Dec '15/January 2020 peak.

If price carries on with the momentum and breaks past and clearly above, last Dec/January's highs of circa 140 to mid 150's then that would perhaps be the first indication that the past 5 year downtrend is dead and new pastures await.

If you want to say the January peak that most stocks achieved worldwide last year was an extraordinary event that pushed the markets towards a crash and just rule it out as an uncharacteristic period, then I can go with that because it was an extraordinary period leading up to March last year.

So, that leav

( Continues > > > )

Thank you Nige & Ascoyne.
Thought there would have been more meat to the warning towards Jansen as suggested in the headline.

-------------

Will get on with that ITV trend request today, Nige.
- Do you want me to post the results (later) on here, or the ITV board?

Would appreciate anyone gaining access to this behind a paywall, Telegraph article and could copy/paste it here.

It takes an opposing view on the chairman crisis with a headline that starts with:

"Jansen may live to regret his BT coup"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/05/aggrekos-departing-chairman-rush-turn-lights/

After such a welcome close to the week, I just had to see what the calcs are throwing up for Monday. And the upper 3rd intraday resistance is unbelievable - I immediately disown it and will post my other expectations, but first:

I posted on Thursday night that I would be pleased to see a close of 136/137 for today. They weren't idly chosen. They were 2 intraday resistance levels, not only were they both beaten, but my jaw was on the floor when I saw 144 at one point
- as 141 was the 3rd intraday resistance!

Third intraday resistances or supports, do not routinely get taken down (perhaps less than a single handful of times per year - at most).
So to exceed 141 at one point, was a portentous occasion and sets up the SP for a good start on Monday, whatever occurs.

So, hope I've made clear that 3rd intraday resistance/supports rarely appear.
- Here's what I'm expecting for Monday:

A close somewhere between tonight's close up to 147.
(There's nothing intraday between tonight's close and 147. Can't believe it, but checked).

Should it be another good day, which I think is asking too much, then next up could be in the 150's at 151.
Not expecting that either. Now for the daft bit. Please realise this is the calcs talking now, not me.
3rd intraday resistance for Monday is coming out at . . . 163 !
Possible? Yes,
but probable?
IMO - No.

I disown that is possible, but as 3rd resistance was encountered today, feel obliged to mention it, usually I never do, as I regard it as Looney tunes territory.

So, anywhere up to 147 "feels" more sensible.

But wait - what if something goes wrong on Monday?
In that case, in that unlikely scenario, watch out for 135 showing its face, as that is showing as a bearish sign for Monday, signalling trouble ahead.

IMO.
( Your opinion may vary :)

Well I must say, the latest analysts consensus update (out today) shows no let-up in them increasing net profit continuously in every single update ever since they realised they had fallen far behind in estimations of what BT is actually achieving. I expect continued forecast increases in net profit all the way to before the 13th May, or thereabouts when BT publishes the finals.
(Reminder: only just over 3 weeks or so left of this current trading year).

When they first published the full year estimate for net profit straight after last year's results, they came up with high £1,200m's for net profit. That quickly was upped to the £1,300m's, and eventually from then until the last update increased to the £1,400m's. Only in today's update have they now upped further to the £1,500m's.

If BT don't publish net profit of at least in the £1600m's on May 13th - I'll be a monkey's uncle. So expect further increases in net profit until just before that date.

So,
Net Profit for 2020/21 increased from £1.482bn up to £1.504bn today.
next year increased further to £1.641bn
and 2022/23 increased up to £1.752bn

- AND that 22/23 year, at long last - shows Net Profit actually coming in higher than what was achieved for last year.
[My thoughts (based on Q1 to Q3 results achieved by BT) are that this very year which has just weeks left to run, may well come in not far below last year's.]

But whatever, Pre-tax profit and Net Profit once again, give the market something to hug
- a Y-O-Y cumulative continuing increase in Profits.

- But not so with their view on Revenue (and they have consistently been pretty accurate on revenue).

They maintain the uneven V shaped progress with this year not being the floor for the declining revenue , but once again show that next year will be even worse with lower revenue, with only the 3rd year 22/23, rising above the preceding all-time low-point 21/22 year.

Sadly, they also show that as well as maintaining the uneven, displeasing, V shape progress in revenue they have once again reduced all 3 years in revenue forecasts, even lower.

Summary:
So revenue keeps on decreasing in every update for all 3 forward years
- and analysts have been pretty hot on revenue.

- but the opposite in net profit; non-stop increasing.

---------

New Chairman?
Pfftt!
How about dumping that vacancy and hiring a world class, top performing salesman/woman to look into revenue???

Thanks Lee, coming up.
- stand by for same old - same old from the analysts.

Who ( like me) was half expecting that at long last (like early last November )they would have revenue lined up like pre-tax and net profit are, showing cumulative increases y-o-y as the "reason" for today's spectacular performance?

Well apart from them very predictably playing catch-up with the net profit, there's nothing in this update that can take credit for the SP performance today
- although they are increasing the net profit at every single opportunity they get and will do all the way into early May.

Back in a mo'

A 'hot' stock, AIM-like performance today (and Wednesday). Is this BT, or another stock with a similar epic code that I've mistaken?
What an extraordinary, fantastic, close to the week. Gobsmacked!

Far from '£5 by Christmas' being a catcall of derision back at prior years overly-enthusiastic calls; it will likely become a badge of honour that congregations will now repeat after each verse.

Had a chance at 133 in the first half hour this morning but can't recall what distracted me, maybe the computer limit-buy order I have outstanding. Had a chance yesterday too at 133, same again, let it slip. Maybe because the final trend I need to see in place (Intermediate) although glacially moving into position isn't quite locked-in, to complete the full set. End of next week should see it sail into port.

Those of us with a longer term interest in BT from years past to currently, have to mentally adjust from years of a dogmatic: Oh the SP always let's you down after a bullish run - to the new panoramic vista: that of a 5 year-loser-stock metamorphosing into a "winning stock"
- AND behaving like winning stocks do, too!

Concerns/Observations:
1)
With the v high 140's only just behind at the end of the first week of January, it will be much safer if the SP can sail straight past the v high approaching 140's when the time comes, as there's bound to be calls of oh look a double top; and if true, not a good thing to see.
Besides the SP is getting closer (but not yet there) - to overbought condition, which just about ties in with the v high 140's. So a straight sail through into to the 150's is not only required but mandatory, when at the upper 140's, please.

2) All major spikes eventually have a distracting pull back before continuance.
At first I thought: no worries - when I missed 133's, as judging on the spiky price action, low 130's-ish was likely as a future temporary pullback.

However the strong close to the week now pushes that pullback (if it ever occurs) up into the high 130's.
So anyone looking for a corrective pullback to top-up or enter, will be doing v well to achieve getting in lower than high 130's - IMO.

All previous "floors" have now been superseded by the full 130 area as of this week - IMO.

The SP flag flies supremely and dominantly, seriously well clear, and well above the mighty 200 day trend line.

- And so the prison guards and bloodhounds, now crestfallen, have fallen silent, as they trudge wearily through the swamps back to their base at the state penitentiary; demoralised and beaten.

On to next week :)

Thank you Sandy,

Had an email back to my query from last night, but not from one of the usual admin/help desk team, but one of the key analysts!

He agrees with the lack of financial data on their site as he's actually looking into SUP himself at this very moment and had already picked up on this, so expecting further developments.

Analysts picking up on SUP for further publication, can only be a good sign IMO. :)