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" Key dates on SLP website says 31 March and 30 June, not expecting any for a few weeks"

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A few weeks???
- The key dates were the same last year and for the past 5 years too, yet last year's Q3 was still published in the last few days of April despite the H1 update being published similarly to this year - in February. (One year was published on 26th Feb yet Q3 was still published at end of that April).
So it's more likely this year's Q3 will come out similarly (see table below) - unless of course Covid lockdowns have delayed agendas.

Previous 5 years Q3 Publication dates (all in v late April) :

2016 - 26th April -
2017 - 26th April -
2018 - 30th April -
2019 - 29th April -
2020 - 28th April -
So...
2021 - 27th - 30th April ???

I applaud all those who have the ability to set a future price; live to see it happen, and bank their pre-planned profits accordingly (seriously) because that ability eludes my skill set.

Probably because I'm not a paid-up member to the news-drives-shares club. And also, seen too many shares where the most detailed analysis has revealed the most brilliant fundamentals only to see an aforementioned stock perform eventually to less than expectations. (The constant year after year lack of the market's interest to even re-rate SLP's SP to the industry P/E averages, just reminds me that some undervalued stocks (referring to Graham now) can take 20 years to be appreciated by the market, in extreme cases.

I think the patience-required delay in SLP becoming fairly valued ( although I'm seriously, deliriously, happy with the SP appreciation :) may be due to market perceptions that PGM stocks can be volatile , or risky etc., etc., or for riverboat gamblers; whatever.
- even industry average P/E's for this industry are way, way, below the broader FTSE market averages, so the ball is set low for the industry to begin with, therefore a bit galling that some stocks like SLP can still be valued at only half the already low, industry average, year after year, despite a continuously rising SP, it lags fair value each year as commendable earnings achieved re-sets the valuations back to seriously under-valued, due to those extraordinary earnings being maintained.

So my preferred method is to let the market have its way; not argue against it and instead, stay in such stocks so long as they are in medium to long term, bullish uptrend's. The decision to sell is taken out of my hands as any stock falling out and below a long term bull trend, becomes a candidate for reappraisal and culling of profits. It's the method I'm most comfortable with. I don't recommend trend following for fundamentals-only driven investors. I don't over-sweat what the fundamentals are at any given point, only the SP trends - I follow the trend - or try too.
(A closer examination of my portfolios might induce some observers to chirp: Trend following eludes him too! :)

(Graham himself, towards the end of his life came to disown fundamentals [I include fundamentals in my trend following - but keep them on a leash] and in doing so, he shocked the then financial community)
A copy/paste quote:

" What many value investors are less aware of, however, is that in one of the last seminars given before his death, Graham actually rejected the idea that detailed security analysis added much value. Those comments were made available in an article titled “A Conversation With Benjamin Graham,” published in the Financial AnalystAnalyst Journal, and are definitely surprising given Graham’s focus on dissecting a firm’s financial statements to uncover superior value investment opportunities. "

The performance of SLP over the years since 2016 (Y-O-Y) has been exemplary
- and is continuing to this day.
In other words, not a lot to do, but monitor the SP's bullish trending velocity. I say that as by way of offering an excuse to looking at the SP from alternative angles in the hope you don't think I'm deramping. Why would I? Currently I'm overweight in SLP, so the last thing I want is to see my investment underperform. So with that bias in mind, I have in this post collected some data as a ready-made excuse should the SP not perform positively after next week's Q3 update.

Below are the dates of the also excellent previous years Q3 updates - all of them published in late April and the generally less than impressive performance of the SP in the remaining days of each April in those years.

(Conversely, I also include some ad hoc data on why the omens are presenting a good platform for the expected stellar Q3 update to perform positively in the remaining days of April after the publication of the Q3 - not least because of Friday's nice uptick.

First: The Q3 publication dates since April 2016 (ie., 5 years worth since the SP began seriously motoring without any pullbacks Y-O-Y)

2016 - 26th April - ( Trading days left in April inc publication day = 4 )
2017 - 26th April - ( ' ' - " - = 3 )
2018 - 30th April - ( ' ' - " - = 1 )
2019 - 29th April - ( ' ' - " - = 2 )
2020 - 28th April - ( ' ' - " - = 3 )
2021 - 26th April? ( ' ' - " - = 5 )

Now the SP's of those months and the closing month end SP's after each excellent Q3 update:

2016 - . 1st April - ( 6.11p / 5.89 = x3.6% down ) X
2017 - . 4th April - ( 10p / 11.33 = 1.3% gain )
2018 - . 3rd April - ( 16.22p / 14.22 = x12.3% down) X
2019 - 11th April - ( 27.53p / 28.22 = x2.5% down) X
2020 - . 1st April - ( 35.93p / 40.66 = 13.1% gain)
2021 - 26th April? ( 112p / month close ? ) ?%

So all-in-all, the seasonal algos propose a modest gain for April closing in the 100-teens; or not far from it.
However, Friday's SP was a nice bullish 123 close, suggesting that data belongs where it came from - in the past :)

Positives to consider for a continuance of Friday's performance:

Probably the best % increase in Q3 earnings ever?
Basket prices keep on increasing.
Bank holidays in UK suggest the Friday before each Bank Holiday is in general bullish (as is the first day trading day after the Bank Holiday).

27th - to 6th (of the following month) are ... ahem "usually" positive (60 years of USA data on pension fund contributions received from salaried employees) so with a requirement in the UK that all employees are inducted into a personal work place pension, the same here?

Month of May historical seasonals also suggesting modest performance.
So if perchance SP hopes are dashed after the Q3, it doesn't mean that bearish conclusions should be drawn from that; just refer back to the historic Y-O-Y annual increases :)

Rodney you plonker, Fawlty, and I-Don't-Believe-It B/Pete, this online bullying against Fleccy must cease! It says more about you trio than it does about your victim.

(And apart from those nicknames, on a personal note, that's it from me as regards responses).

What on earth have each of you suffered in your personal lives/back in your childhood, that results in you mostly taking aim at other posters by bullying, rather than offering your own take on BT poster opinions offered by others, or in the media?

You intensely dislike another poster? So much so that you feel compelled to bully them personally - rather than use the filter button? That fact says quite a lot about you three than it does about your victims.

I can only surmise that something is missing from your own personal development/lives that it leaves you feeling so threatened, and thus resort to online bullying.

As a compromise, I for one, am actively posting much less than I once used to. Hopefully that helps the trio to come to terms with their demons. I would advise Fleccy to occsionally include a little more man-in-the-street explanation to some of the more technical engineering references as some ex-telecoms types on here feel threatened by your knowledge.

I have formulated a cod-physiological breakdown of the demons driving the trio, that forces them into online bullying but are so addicted, they refrain from filtering their target irritant poster - but to post those thoughts on THEIR character here, would only inflame the situation and feed the troll in the bullies.

Cease the online personal bullying! How would you feel if one of your family was being treated in such a way?

I openly wonder if in years to come, you will look in the mirror one day, and be ashamed of your conduct?

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PS. On BT Generally:

Despite recent laments from some, on the inactive progress of the SP - I have no such laments at all.
The SP is (IMO) in a predominant bullish, uptrend and all meanderings and pauses/pullbacks, are nothing more than intermittent noise/zig-zagging on an otherwise, upward, bullish journey - which has been in force since last November; at least according to the belief system I employ.
Your opinion may vary - but that's mine!

" I must admit my guess of 3 to £4 Billion was probably massively optimistic. "

-------------------

- Well, I wouldn't be too quick to write-off your own guess just yet, as these consensus analyst outpourings are notorious for getting it wrong. It's not their accuracy that's important it's their herd-like consensus direction that's important
- the trend; have they as a herd, increased or decreased the likely deficit?
As it's for an overall increase in the deficit, then that's what the wider market's expectations will be. The analyst's range from £7bn-odd up to £11bn-odd, with a consensus average of £9bn odd. It's all over the place LOL! :)

Just remind ourselves what the annual accounts showed by close last year 2019/20
- it was an incredibly, never-seen-before, astonishing, absolutely astonishing, truly unbelievable, deficit low of only £1.290bn ! ! !

So the pension deficit problem was over, yes?
- No!

- The previous years had been typically £7.283bn,
then £6.964bn,
then that £9.192bn in March 2017,
even as far back as March 2015 the deficit was £7.583bn.

So last year showing it all sorted-out in a snap of the fingers at £1.290bn was simply astonishing.

Fancy footwork was employed to explain although the deficit now looked solved; on paper the deficit was not 'solved' after all, and ever since it's been a case of expect the same fancy footwork to look quite bad this year. Any casual observer would have thought the deficit of that lowly £1.2bn-odd was "normal".

It was nothing of the sort, so although an "increase" of £3bn sounds bad ie.,

""IAS 19 deficit of £4.0bn, net of tax, at 30 September 2020, up £3.0bn since 31 March 2020, reflecting..."

at £4bn that was still, as a total deficit, one of the very lowest ever deficits for many, many, a year. So an increase of £3bn was "relative".

In other words, I agree, a case of H for horrible as well as hard to work out, accurately.

All media analysis has simply taken the forecast deficit from the consensus analysts opinions, as I doubt any run of the mill media analyst is going to sit and waste time working out an impossible to achieve, accurate pension deficit on every single company they do a write-up on.

They don't have time for the hard impenetrable work involved, in coming up with a pension deficit - the pro's themselves, are split between a low of £7bn+ up to £11bn+

So they'll just quote the consensus view.

The truth? No one truly knows - and by no one, I mean the financial media.

Thanks Stoodio ( for the generosity in your posts):

" - I should probably do more of what you do so far as self assessment on my holdings. I do , but. . . "
----------------------------

- I've tonight started what in the Investment books is called a Trader's Diary, so that all my investment decisions are recorded for assessment and measurement against the principles of discipline to keeping in line with my chosen strategies are being adhered to,, or if ad hoc emotional decision-making is creeping in. It comes up time and time again - keep a trading diary; so that's what I'm commencing.

'

Bazzaman -

" Any predictions Velo/Stoodio that you're willing to share yet? "
----------------------------
If you'd permit me a bit of personal indulgence in replying -
You and Stoodio won't believe me based on some of my past posts, but I never make future predictions; hence the old habits die hard of playing with the distracting but for-fun only, monthly seasonality charts, which is in the predictions camp. I do obsessively carry out an instantaneous predictive candlestick reading on all stocks I'm interested in, every night from habit - as don't want my candlestick reading ability to diminish, and yes I dabble in oversolds/overboughts and a couple of indicators and the odd passing bowl pattern formation :) but they're by-the-way, and not investing decisions.

I have morphed over the years from an income seeking dividend investor to what I was doing unintentionally all along - trend following.
I can come out of the cupboard and say I am what I've always unknowingly felt I was - and that is . . . a trend follower.

And that's why future SP predictions aren't my main objective, only staying on the right side of the predominant trend in any particular stock.
Valuing a stock whether by comparison of industry ratios against company specific ratios or other methods is not me forecasting a future price but an evaluation of how the market currently values a stock.
So sorry, I have no way of predicting a future price for certain, but do feel very certain living alongside the trends.

Generally speaking though, the monthly seasonality charts (excluding June) are that spring to mid-summer will be low expectation, uninteresting low % gainswise
- until July/August.

However, the predominant longer term trends in SLP are for bullish continuance. So there you have it, if you must - 2 predictions :)

'

Markinvestor:

" Velo: Could it be some sellers selling for various reasons at the end of the tax year? "
----------------------------

Did consider that a possibility, but you would have to expect that to occur every year in the past too, at the same juncture, and not just this year in isolation.
.

" Will this analyst forecast carry enough weight to budge the SP up another penny or two on market resumption on Tuesday? "

-------------------

It's worth repeating why I examine the regular consensus analysts updates provided by BT:

I'm not looking to see how accurate or not, the market forecasts are, but rather is the overall trend of the entire consensus as a group increasing positively Y-O-Y, or are they decreasing bearishly Y-O-Y? That's it in a nutshell.

If the jump in size of each update is increasing positively, then it's a quick way to gauge the likely future direction of future market sentiment, and thus the SP
- and vice versa if not.

(And kudos to BT for going the extra mile in providing full disclosure of all the house brokers analyst forecasts; the only company in the entire UK market that does so I believe - it should be mandatory as a condition for all companies in the FTSE100).

Net Profit forecasts are giving off all the right signals in this update - an increasing acceleration in net profit achievement Y-O-Y, with not a single year tripping up, but each succeeding year beating the year that preceded it, handsomely.

Different forecast by them on revenue though, with this year continuing forecast to come in less than last year and the following next 2 years, not even getting back to this year's low forecast.

The day revenue commences to behave in the same manner as the bottom line, will be the best update forecast ever; it's been a nasty 5 years - so one step at a time.

The SP is in a strong up-trending bull trend, with the under-valued price attempting to reach some sort of fair value for things as they stand now, let alone in the near future. I expect that to continue. So I don't foresee a reversal back to the past 5 bear years.

As for this update? Not enough in this forecast to be any more conclusive; except to say no change in the usual downbeat revenue forecast, with net profit clearly being the shining star in this update, with larger increases forecast than in any previous updates.

Increasing money at the bottom line is always welcomed by the market, particularly as it proves to income seeking investors that future dividend reinstatement is likely to be seen as a safe bet for continuance.

Nice to see the SP breach that troublesome high 140's area.
Similarly with the 157 area but on a very much milder scale than the high 140's also needs to be disposed of; thereafter doesn't appear to be any major obstacles all the way to 200.

That being the case, then with 160's being visible to the world, it should have a startling and dramatic effect on the market, IMO.

Now that April has begun and with the SP remaining strong and highly bullish, then only just over 1 month to go and that would match the longest ever bull trend since 2016 (and that was summer/autumn of 2018). After the first week in May, and this bull trend maintained, BT will truly be in new pastures, going on to breaking new records; any doubters would have to be reminded that no bullish SP bull run had ever lasted this long since before 2016
- and that IS something to look forward to, a first! :)

That would be about the first week in May - and the second week in May, is the week the final results are published.
For 5 years May has always been a bit iffy as the SP has always performed poorly after each full year results were published. A half decent result this year and I'd expect the market to react favourably, for the first time. I know the results will beat and kick the market consensus for Net profit into touch, but what about the revenue? . . .

Yesterday, Wednesday closed the 20/21 trading year; so today is the first day of the new trading year, and with it a new analysts consensus update is out this evening. No surprises on revenue, but looks like they've been on the happy juice with net profit - to the upside.

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/btgroup-consensus-1-apr-2021.pdf

Revenue retains the undesirable V formation with this year just closed, forecast to be lower yet again but both 21/22 & 22/23 increased slightly. The unhappy V formation is still intact even so, with year 3 remaining below thise year's revenue - according to the consensus.

Different story with Net Profit.
Gone is that decrease at the last update, to be replaced with increases in all 3 years.
Up from £1.4bn to now £1.5bn (I still maintain high £1.6bn+ will be more likely, possibly at a stretch £1.7bn on the nose!)

No matter, because both years 2 & 3 are both increased as well. With the analysts completely going demob happy in year 3 and increasing year 3 from their previous £1.7bn up into the £1.8bn's !

So, revenue as always remains disappointing, but the largest net profit increases this update
- well, what was poured into their tea this time round? Something that causes happy delirium for sure.
.

Been reviewing my outlook over this current pullback. Gotten so used to any little pullback being so short-lived that I ignored this current pullback by expecting similar to all others that went before - lulled as I was by the strong and very protective long-term bullish uptrends (see below at foot of this post).

What started me reviewing matters, was a little bird perched on my shoulder chirping : What are you doing? - when I carelessly, without a bye or leave, let an old buy-order trigger randomly because the strong uptrend had made me 'snatchy' at any passing pullback. I've been ignoring my strategies for such a contingency.

However, this current pullback although 'normal' by non-hot stock standards, is the longest downtrend since this latest, current bull run, commenced at the v beginning of July last year.

I'm slightly taken aback, that the very fast-acting Ultra Short Term trend is still bearish, although admittedly it is now narrowing in the right direction.

The Short Term trend is looking hard and unperturbed - and it shouldn't be. Its suitcase should be half-packed by now!

Worse, the Intermediate trend is quite narrow, dark and threatening, where it shouldn't be - but anyway, officially, is still bullish.

All in all, as things stand tonight, need to see some decisive action next Tuesday, as the shorter term trends are happy where they are
- bearish.
It's quite rude of them not to leave when the door has been held open for them and their hats and coats are being held out
- but there they are, with their bearish feet on the coffee table sprawled out, with no hurry in their demeanour to depart at all.

It reminds me to always be ready to expect 'the impossible' on the stock market, and keep plans more to the forefront on how to deal with each of them, not let them creep up on you, and that's what I've been reviewing today.
I think this is all to do with my average price racing upwards in Olympic sprint style with all my recent topping-up's. It impacts on one's outlook as risk is proportionately increased with the increased holding.

'
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SLP Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH!

Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Ultra-short term trend . . . . = Bearish

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