Member Info for Velo

" We also have Triple Witching day on Friday too "

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OMG! Add that into the mix and it's a slam dunk then, isn't?

I've been reading a US based guru's blogs on a possible market-wide 10% pullback that should have occurred, according to his Elliot Theory Waves calcs by the end of November. I dismissed his findings as it was a miss. He's been posting lately, that it if doesn't occur before Christmas then he's worked it out all wrong.

Now you throw in triple witching day with the winter solstice............Aarrrrgh!

There's only one sensible thing left to do -

- What do the horoscopes say?

Felt sure the probabilities of a close in the 140's was a slam dunk today. It's still a bullish environment for the SP, in that sometimes these signals take 2 or 3 days to trigger, and not always the very next day on command!

However, tonight I'm of the opinion that 140's for tomorrow only, have moved slightly further away on the probabilities scale based on today's price action that more 130's have moved into the resistance levels and fewer 140 levels remain in play - for Thursday.

If there is to be a hiccup tomorrow, the supports are 100% all resolutely in the 130's. So if a poor day then take your pick from any of the lower 130's IMO.

If bullish day, well, I'm a bit dour-faced that tomorrow will be a 140's day at all, and am leaning towards a high 130's close.

If 140's are to be seen and held it'll have to be some days later than was the expected case today.

In other words IMO - bullish or bearish - No escape from the 130's either direction on Thursday.
There, that should do the trick and get things moving again :) :)

Very few red prices today in the long watch list to the left on this LSE site. My portfolios have enjoyed a reasonable day, and yet, of the minority of quiet holds, BT chooses today, to join-in with them.
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Winter solstice day on the 21st next Monday. Whooohoohoo......
Solstice is a weird time, lots of cases where stock markets mischievously reverse whatever trend they were in, round about just before or just after each of the solstice times throughout the year, at least by the data I've seen from some who track these things.

Look - the ladies have their horoscopes - and I have my weird goings-on in the stock market at around solstice time.

And besides it gets me out of trouble with crappy IMO posts :)

Reported today -

" EU president says ‘we have found a way forward on most issues’

Ursula von der Leyen gave her most optimistic assessment of negotiations yet to MEPs on Wednesday morning, but added that she could still not say for sure whether there would be a deal. "

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Ooh, genuinely feel sorry for her. She almost forgot to add on the de riguer negotiating tactic of: 'there may not be a deal' that both sides are spouting to keep the public in abject fear mode uncertainty.

Her own side will bully her now for showing their poker hand by admitting most issues are agreed upon, then belatededly adding as an after thought - but wait, there may not be a deal.

Personally, as a trend follower, I am strategically bound to only ever sell when only the LONG term trends turn bearish, and absolutely never ever, on a price alone.

So I will be in this stock for as many years as it remains in a long term bullish uptrend. Which means eventually reaching my estimated valuation (140's) and still holding even if progress is slower after that point but remains in a bullish long term uptrend.

It's fun trying to gauge future prices but that only - Fun. My chosen route is that of a trend follower so I'm following the bigger bullish uptrend in SLP for as many years as it holds up, but will no doubt Top-up and part-sell on short term pulllbacks along the way. But will never ever - not ever - buy in to a long term downtrending stock.

- So future target prices are of the fun-time only, pastime to me.

Although, I will admit I did enjoy reading of the part-sell strategy posted on here recently of making a rule that when a stock increases by 100% - to part-sell the original stake money (50%) and thus run the remaining investment on "free money".

" Velo,
I agree bt may look at 141/144 area tomorrow as pound and ftse futures both very strong, which can indicate a 3 to 5 per cent daily up move in bt "

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Yes :)
- Which I suppose, now we've posted/promised it, leaves just the very small matter of actually coming up with the promised goods tomorrow, then? LOL! :)

Ooops, the 'future months' bit! >>

Previous contenders to beat: The period leading up to the election when price lived above the 200 period average lasted just over 3 months. This current breakout rally is barely 1 month old! Complete that task then do it all over again, as next you have to keep the ball in the air for a full 6 months as it did in the summer of 2018.

You can't be a long term trending stock until you've proven you can sail past ALL previous failed breakout attempts.

The long term trend and this 200 period average will inform if that's possible - but first keep this SP above-200 ball in the air for 3 whole months. Then another 3 months. And by that point many eyes will be upon you. Hope so, because new blood will be needed to fill out the ranks from the destruction of the past 5 years.

Strong finish to the day. Ultra Short Term trend now back on side. Mini weekend crisis over.

The metamorphosis of BT's SP continues apace. And with it - BT's reputation. Not unreasonable to see the 140's come up on screen tomorrow and be done with that auto-repeating 137 !
It gets deposed tomorrow.

Been studying the 200 period average. Undetectable if it has microscopically now ceased dropping or not. I suspect not after taking 5 years to find this landing strip runway. It's nicely showing just a little air between itself and the next grid line on screen, so can visually check it easily now. (Keep overlooking to notate what price it closes on each day) seems to be cementing in to the 113's each day now. Was personally, wildly guesstimating it would average out at circa 110, but instead, just stood back and watched it come in to land. Historic in BT terms. The distance between it and the SP widens each day. Needs to. It will soon finish taxiying along the runway, and once it's fully crewed-up, it will turn on it's engines back on, turn into a German WWII U-boat and come ahunting through the everglade swamps to close-in on the SP.

Look! In my story it's perfectly feasible for a WWII German U-boat to cruise through the Everglade swamps hunting for SP's - if you're a holder, you have to decide if your Sidney Poitier or Tony Curtis, because you're chained to each other, fleeing through the swamps with a pack of sadistic prison guards & bloodhounds howling after you. Forgot to mention, this U-boat is a shape shifter and has chosen prison camp bloodhounds for the Florida swamps - because this is the next stage once it revs up and takes off that runway.

And once the chase is on you have to keep the SP ball in the air - for life! So no slipping when the politicians finally decide how to carve up the "B" negotiations.

That's the price you pay to get a seat on the top table of a long term, rising SP.

Entered the opening price into the calcs and barely no change to the pivot points from last night.

1) Don't envisage any worse than v low 130's should it be a bearish day.

2) And if bullish? With only 137 in the resistance levels on offer, the calc is showing the rest of them, all of them, in the 140's, so to progress today, some hefty upward momentum from the SP will be needed.

" Hi Velo, I suspect that you're waiting for confirmation regarding share price, but at what price will you enter BT? "

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Morning Nige,

The answer is yes and no. I don't have an entry price. I try to enter on any pullback - after the long term trends turn bullish.

The SP's momentum has taken it above the long term trend lines - but the twin ma averages I deploy have yet to trend upwards, with the lower timeframe needing to cross above the longer term timeframe.
Whatever the price is by the time that occurs it's usually good to go. Anything could happen to prevent the long term trend from trending upwards. So I have to wait. I don't have a price in mind
- I have a visual trend in mind. It's not about the price but rather all about when a) the SP must remain above key trend lines
and b) those trend lines have to be trending upwards also.
Not good enough for the price alone to be above the descending trend lines and yet the trend lines themselves keep on descending.

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" Are you not going to miss quite a few percent . . . "
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Quite simply - Yes.

It's happening now; so don't weaken my resolve by pointing out a big gain I've already missed out on.
It sounds mad, but I think - (I think :) - I know what I'm doing.

Right, this time - this is my last post.

Just preloading the pivot points with today's hi's and low's etc., before entering tomorrow's opening price to save time at 8:00am, and -

- Even if it turns out to be a poor and bearish day tomorrow, then without even seeing the opening price, I feel confident in revealing that so far, the worst that might be on the cards tomorrow is lower 130's and certainly no lower at all by close.

But a taller order required should it be a bullish day, only 137 available as the 1st resistance, thereafter all further resistances lie up in the 140's.

So if the SP is bullish and wants to progress it's got to have a substantial breakfast ahead of 8:00am.

Not expecting major changes to that when the opening price is to hand, other than maybe a penny here and there at worst.

By the way, I have reason to believe the very last analysts consensus forecast updates that will be seen this year for Q3 & future years, may be due this coming weekend. I will pick up on that on Saturday.

Just some flash points (which I will flesh out individually as appropriate when they mature) of some extremely bullish estimates I look forward to confirming in the coming months. It's all coming together v nicely for the SP. And despite analysts under-reported performance on forecasts, sentiment is on course to sweep over them. (Saturday for that latest update)

I'm of the opinion BT's actual Q3 result will be published on the last working day of January 2021. Which coincides nicely with some 'explosive' transformations (by that same weekend according to my estimates today)
- of the Long Term Trend crossing to the upside and hence move from bearishness to bullishness!
(Price is already above it) but need confirmatory twin trend lines to cross; those are the 'rules'
- that trend has not been seen bullish for 5 years (apart from the summer of 2018).

Not only will that be a belts and braces all-clear signal to the scaredy-cats like myself (trend followers know as a condition of entry they can never speculate on an early entry until the strategy gives the all-clear) And I'm opining that's the end of January. But better still, the most significant, the most authoritive, that all brokers houses respect and keep abreast of - the 200 period average - I estimated today will finally be changing momentum from horizontal to straight-up vertical bullishness by early January!

Are you keeping count of the signs? :) :)

Yes, more and more, I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that 2021 is THE year for BT.

£2 in 2021? (And the rest :)
Not forecasting it, but if someone else says it, then I couldn't possibly comment :)

So on a personal note, months yet before I take (what should become a long hold) a position (end of Jan).

Then (still not mentioned) there's my custom Ultra Long Term trend designed to protect against the likes of folly in Carillion etc., that most probably won't cross to the upside until spring of next year. It is rigidly bearish at the moment; not a hint of a smile from it. When that too turns (no guarantees of course) then I fully expect to see increasingly positive media reports. All this from the trends.

Concerns? Only if something gets in the wheel bearings before the big-gun trends cross over to the upside.
At the moment there's changes to my BT trends slowly commencing to take shape that have not been seen like that for many a year. It's all happening next year. Not speaking as if this stock is the stock market buy of the year - no way

- just that IMO it's on the foothills of being talked about as a long termer in up-trending stocks.

The big long term trends don't change direction for a free bag o chips on a wet Blackpool beach. They change on earth moving events. When all the major trends are bullish
- then it becomes what you call loading-the-risk/reward-factor-in-your-favour, making it far simpler to invest.

Hope I don't sound overly bullish - just rushing before turning in for the night.

Well fancy that - the SP intradayed into the 137's 2nd pivot point resistance level before being repelled and found it all a bridge too far, to overcome.

And that's what I mean by the pivot point calculator being spooky. Because of the "B" news over the weekend, human emotion made a mess of human guesstimations - down? or up? It changed on each bit of news.

I mean with all that information who was expecting the SP to even reach 137? Didn't seem possible did it? So Kudos to Emm for highlighting it as a probability. Doubt there were many in the UK or anywhere - talking of 137 as a probability

- I certainly wasn't, were you?

But besides Emm, the 'spooky' pivot points, free from emotional decisions of interpreting negotiators public statements, came up with 137 as a resistance level based on data that shows sentiment could attempt visiting there, as a probability today. And after breaching 135 the first resistance level of the day, and running up to the 137 area, it was then looking highly likely later that the SP would close back down on 135 by close.

I came back hours later after close, and was surprised it had lost that crown too, by sinking just below 135.

So the bears came back strongly by day's end. But the bears were not quite strong enough to take everything away. Things remain potentially bullish tonight; however the shortest, fastest trend in my kit refuses to come out of bearishness.

Will post another set of pivot points tomorrow morning as a day's guide to potential probable pivotal points. Although my attention is now focussed and more interested in the next couple of months.

Wanted to post further but will stop here as want to forward on a bit into coming months, because that's the real story, not this 'noise' (bullish larger trends are bored looking at this wobbly bit) and just to show that IMO it's sentiment that drives prices, as this years trading results are on course to be the most lowliest yet over the past 5 years - but sentiment via the trends is pointing to a recovery in the SP and not due to earnings or revenue - which in fact will be down on last year, but rather sentiment has changed and I want to spitball a couple of quick points due for the next couple of months, in the next post, as the very largest of the bullish trends are outside warming up before coming on to the pitch. And I'm just off to finish my interview with them.

" Much *is* made of the UK's death rate being the worst in Europe, but..."

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The pedant in me says:

WAS, Fleccy, was!
Not any more. As of the weekend it's no longer *is* but *was* :)

The title is handed back to Italy.

Emm playing this game well today, so far.

Headline in the New Statesman just one month ago and many others all summer:

"How the UK suffered 50,000 Covid-19 deaths – the highest number in Europe.

Only the US, Brazil, India and Mexico have recorded higher coronavirus death tolls than Britain."

Depressing isn't it? Very. Almost nailing home that we are incapable of freely governing ourselves without some competent adult, outside influence, having a reassuring say or approval over how we should really govern ourselves, because well, we're incompetent and just make things worse, don't we?

And in particular the knife going in by the Guardian headline this summer as its Italian correspondent reported:

" Italians are looking on aghast at the UK's coronavirus response.
My own newspaper, La Repubblica, acknowledged the “grave errors” made in Italy, but observed that the “confusion and contradictions displayed by the British government in the past few months have few equals. ”
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Today and current headlines from multiple US sources only (apart from SKY UK) :

" Italy Overtakes U.K. as European Country With Most Covid Deaths".
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Finger pointing, shaming and laying blame is always a dangerous occupation. (Still doesn't excuse the foul-ups in our care homes treatments though).

And now back to BT...........

PS.
Please for God's sake no more posts on the B word. I apologise for this post in advance. Do not respond to it. Let it go.

This morning's open did gap-up (but only slightly) from Friday's close, to open up at 132.50
- So here's an update to today's pivot points; bearing in mind they are FOR FUN ONLY!

Monday's Intraday resistances to overcome if price is bullish -

142

137

135

Pivot point: ( 132 )

Supports for a falling price -

130

128

123

Futures markets just opened up.

Europe, UK and the US - all up and all blue. Dangerous to plan on the first few minutes of trading but just as some have posted, initially looking bullish for tomorrow :)

We might be a small island but our Brexit shenanigans impact the world's markets - for good or ill.

Black lives matter - and so do we!

"As someone who’s worked as a professional in a ‘real’ trading environment.. "

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- I'm gad you brought that up. All ****-taking aside, and you won't read jibes from me if you answer truthfully

- What was the reason you were fired from Barclays for?

Genuine question. No jokes. No jibes from me at your expense.

Just be honest; it would explain a lot, and I would adjust my responses acoordingly, because something major in your life has rocked your self esteem, to make you, a grown man, boast like some immature 14 year old.

- That wasn't a jibe by the way, most observers can see you have self esteem issues; hence the uncontrolled boasting of how great you are; how you never make a mistake.

! That last sentence suddenly rings out - that's it!

What 'mistake' did you make at Barclays or was erroneously blamed for?
- or was it too many work colleagues that complained of your attitude?

But tell the truth - it's Christmas - Come on, why did they fire you?

It could help you - just to spill the beans to people you'll never meet in real life.

I see by your replies you're still employed part time as that circus contortionist. You know, the one where you put your foot in your mouth and then shove your head up your rrrss

- And all at the same time too!