Member Info for Velo

Well would you Adam and Eve it? - The bull rally is still on!

Check out the trends below. Now 2 trends have turned bullish. Like collectable badges you've got to collect the full set for stay-ability. You can still have a bullish rally, but without the full set it won't last. The 200 day average is so, so, sooooo important I'd rather mention that in separate posts. It's currently now down to as low as 135p.

Pull the pants of 113 to down around his ankles? - I said yesterday :(
I must talk quieter; he heard us last night
- he was wearing belts AND braces today! The SP never even got as far as a giving him a wedgie.

Personally I thought the game was lost without 'easy' 113 in the bag - but all indicators are bullish and best of all, TWO trend lines are now clearly bullish.
So, it's all, still on. Nothing travels up in a big straight line direction for long.
Average day volume-wise - unlike the day before.

Neutral pivot point territory today was 108 (hence my mention of it yesterday)
- but the SP closed midway above that level and between the first resistance level of belts'n'braces, escape artist guy - 113!

If you're a pessimist you'll say the SP got rejected before even reaching the first resistance so it's going down. But looking at candlesticks it's still a lovely shape. I'm still bullish until disabused of that notion by the indicators and trend lines.
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Tomorrow Friday, then -
And the neutrality pivot point area is upped to 110 for tomorrow. So straight off the SP can not sit on its Rrrrs there tomorrow, nor even think about closing on 110. It'll get sussed out.

So first target up is - Oooh . . . nice, easier = 112,
113 has been promoted by the Viet Cong up to 2nd resistance for showing ingenuity.

3rd resistance is 116. And that's a warning. Today's less than stellar performance has meant 120's has been taken off the table for tomorrow. Shame - that's what comes when you slack off, though.

Focus on 112 for the last day of the week. No heroes - just bring me the head of 112.

PS. At only 1p below tonight's close is Mr Dangerous - 109. Closing the week on 109 means the end of the bull rally.

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BT currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= Bearish!
-
Long term trends . . . . . . . . = Bearish
Medium term trend . . . . . .= Bearish
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = Bearish
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH-As of tonight! Yay!
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= BULLISH

" Interesting strength today too, ..."
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Yes,* very* interesting indeed. My impression by last night was that a little temporary bear run is in play. It is, or rather - it was :)

If it closes on, or even better, above the current 60p then it'll have achieved the first intraday resistance point; you don't close on such a thing in a bear trend
- which if it does close circa there, suggests that's the termination of this little annoying bear trend with the bigger, stronger, longer term bullish term trend, (the 5 year prevailing trend) reasserting it's authority (IMO)

Ahh know him, that's Michael Taylor, he's still in his 20's I believe, but he's good. Check out his closing para:

" Fundamentals are a nice thing to have, but traders should remain focused on the chart. At the end of the day, we are paid solely on the capital gains of our endeavours – not the undervaluation of the stock. I have made that mistake before and have no wish to repeat it. The price must come first. "

Not a sentiment shared by fundamentalists I'll wager :)

I study both disciplines, so have the opportunity to be twice as wrong as everyone else LOL!

Nope, not going to manage it. Would only be boring stuff of trying to explain analysis of short term 'SP noise'.
So just some quickie summaries before signing off.

Collected 5 each of Sept's /5 x Oct's /5 x Nov's /5 x Dec's data ie., 20 months (from 2015 to 2019) once these were already evident and established as "flat" to determine the lo's and hi's within each month with a 'forced' week result as likely to hold either the max/ or min SP.

Before that some generalities -

1) The best performing months of the past full 5 years (2015-2019) [60 months of data] now already proven to be 6 years, as already repeated that performance once again this year - are July and August (50% gain this year just by holding for those 2 months alone!)
If swinging in and out of SLP No:1 rule is - make sure back in for July 1st latest and must hold to the v last day of Aug,
or maybe even better results by holding until early Sept to the day before the annual results.
[100% HIGH CONFIDENCE]

2) The next best months are Jan and Feb. Not quite as large but close enough to nearly emulate July & Aug. Again be sure to be locked in to SLP by 31st Dec. (Will post % SP increases expected another time).
[80% HIGH CONFIDENCE]

3) Worst performing months ie., the flattest months, are the 4 months of the 'kipper season' - Sept to Dec. (Top-up time).
[Confidence varies per month from as low as 20% to 50/75%; so beware of my interpretative errors in this particular period]

All above IMO only. Yours may differ.

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Sept:
Have week No:1 in Sept as probable for coincidentally containing both the highest and the lowest SP occurring in the very same week of the entire month! (3 years out of last 5).

Highest SP looks like that 66/67 of last week ie., the 1st week (as was expected)

- but lowest SP this month looking more and more like occurring in this second week (Sept is only 20% confidence) or even later as this sudden bearish Ultra-Short-Term trend looks a bit extreme to me.
Calcs suggest 57/56p-ish but too tired to regurgitate data.

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Whatever, it would appear that topping-up at a low is much of a muchness across all 4 months (Sept to Dec) so plenty of time to top-up, as missing out in one month won't mean missing out altogether, as same low SP may be offered in the other 3 months. Ends of each month to end similar to as they started, no matter how high or low during that month.
Year-end likely to be circa-similar to last day of August, based on 5 year averages.

Don't think I'll have time to finish all that I want to post tonight. Will do it in bits, see how far I get as haven't had supper yet. Deal with Thursday first.

Expecting another poorly performing day tomorrow, but hopefully closing no worse than 57p.

But there is a danger of the SP flirting with closing around circa 55p!
- (IMO only)
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If it's a good day then IMO that would entail closing at a neutral 59.

Just not expecting a good performance tomorrow, yet again.

DC2007 -

So the moral of this little story (for everyone) is:

- Watch what you post - as I bet they're not the only bosses of stock market companies that favout LSE for gaining an idea of what their shareholders think of them.

There was an article a year or two back, in Gavpants day, where he admitted to getting his secretary to print off posters comments from here so he could gauge what we were saying about BT/ (ie., him:)

He was probably pleased every time we mentioned his flowing Poldark locks!

PS.
Sorry DC2007, messed that up. Left off the link to the annual report - here it is:

Https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/component/jdownloads/send/75-2020/487-2020-annual-report

DC2007 @ "Which company's annual report are you quoted in Velo? "
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The stock is SLP and they deal with me in the Chairman's letter to shareholders in the annual trading results at the foot of page 9 (about 3 paras up from the bottom of the page) where they quote only part of my original post with:

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*** “Ughh - hate buy-backs! Always have. Never does much for the SP valuation in my experience. What's the reason for the buy-backs?” ***
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Most of the other posters quoted are over the moon at their posts ending up in the annual trading results.
Hope it gains traction and other companies pick up on this, and do likewise in their annual trading reports.

Like garlic bread - it's the future! :)

" Just 2p away from 113 - the third intraday resistance of the day! "

3p!!!!!

What? Doh, You're not going to quibble over a penny are you?

Terrific day - and the cat's well and truly out of the bag now! Something big IS afoot!

The intraday resistances for tomorrow are beginning to stretch out to a larger degree now.

The main take away from today is that BT has broken through not just the 1st resistance (106) but the second resistance of 109 too, and even set up camp on the other side of the 2nd resistance at 110!
Just 2p away from 113 - the third intraday resistance of the day! What? Yes!

Remember this is poor old laggard BT we're talking about, producing well over a 5%++ gain in one day - not a hot shot AIM stock!

Wasn't expecting the 3rd resistance to fall (and it didn't) as after years of computing these things it only usually falls on removal of disliked CEO's or stellar earnings reports - so to close the day, sitting between the 2nd and 3rd intraday resistances, well . . .
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Should the 3rd resistance fall tomorrow (which I very much doubt) the question you have to ask yourselves is: is that a large Great White hostile t/over bidder swimming up, vacuuming-up as many cheap shares as possible before being forced to declare?
Because otherwise you tell me what 'ordinary' event BT has just released that has caused this eruption.

If you believe it's just a re-rating valuation after the wake-up call caused by bid speculation that will never materialise, then the SP, IMO should not break past the 3rd resistance. And neither should it do so if it's a hostile,aggressive bidder buying-up on the cheap - as pushing past the 3rd resistance will awaken the world and bang goes their buying on the cheap after that. But what if they do?

Tomorrow, I'm expecting 113 to have it's pants pulled down around its ankles early on.

After that, won't be surprised if the SP flirts with 115 (interestingly that's the same figure mentioned in that 'Cube' link today).

But not expecting the third intraday resistance to be breeched at all, because it's coming up at . . . 122!!!

Yes, 120's are back on the radar screen. Unlikely to materialise, but then again, I say that tonight :) :) . . . . .

Negatives:
If it's a flat day (circa 108p) then it's just in line with what's gone before in the mini peaks and troughs since April. So could be nothing more than just the "normal" peak before the, same old; same old, drop back down into the trough, and back to the old game.

Busy tomorrow so can't monitor, so the question you gotta ask yourself is:

If the SP "only" reaches 113 and no more - is that just the market re-rating BT?

Or if it breaks past 115 and flirts around 122 - is that the hostile t/over bidders handiwork? You be the judge.

Summary 113 - 115 - 122. Which area will dominate?

Don't ask about the lower supports as you'll be answered with: You're having a laugh aren't you? :)

Not happy the SP closed on 58 either.

Be back later tonight. Working on some numbers. Closing on 58 was my worst fear.
Going over everything, as this is looking bad again for tomorrow.

Net profit is more than double last year's!
Revenue is 60%+ up!

- and yet the SP craters day after day!

Am I living in an upside-down parrallel universe to everyone else? (Despite the SP doing similar in previous years after the finals).

There's only one way to break out of this Matrix world - call it's bluff and top up. But when?
- Laters.

I "think" everything is still on course to come out the other end in one piece okay. Depends on tomorrow's low.

But first got a few sums to add up in advance of that.

" I too would have thought 110p was resistance level "
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- It probably is on someone's chart interpretations.
I'm trendline mad so don't really sweat over supports and resistances but treat them as a kind of parlour game.

PS. 110 is showing up as the live price as I post at the moment. Going gangbusters today, isn't?

" I love the annual report. "
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[ I agree and have already posted on another stock I frequent (nominating a knowledgeable poster to be addressed in the annual results as representative of investors concerns) that I hope it's the start of a new trend whereby the BOD execs respond directly to a small selection of investors posts as typical of the fears and desires from forums, in their annual trading results. ]

P.S.
Hey Stoodio - are you (And TBTT) going to contact your broker and ask for a hard copy of the annual report, so you can show family and friends under:
I was "mentioned in dispatches" ? :)

In't olden' days - they were as thick as manuals, let alone mere booklets, and always contained glossy photo images etc., You get nowt now, it's all online everything
- and oooh the sheer artistry that went into the real physical share certificates. Again you get nowt in modern-digital-nowadays.
I believe some of those beautiful crested share certificates often appear on eBay and sell on their sheer beauty. I used to love receiving the annual reports when I first started investing (you received them automatically).
They were far too good to dispose of, and instead stayed on my bookshelves for years. Heavy in weight they were too.

I won't be ordering a copy as I got as good as told off with the subtext being:
'Why the hell don't you read an RNS once in a blue moon instead of making us repeat ourselves!'
LOL :) :)

Yeah, that's right: I'm the bad boy sat at the back of the class, in a leather jacket with my legs stretched out across deliberately blocking the isles :)

"Velo..... Is 110 or your charts today sarg "

Nope Lostsoul1 - would be quite satisfied with 109 close as I alluded to originally.
As these are intraday pivot points the next resistance to overcome I have down as 113 - it skips right over 110.

Would be more than suspicious of such a close (113) all in one day with BT's characteristics over the past 5+ years.
But if it did, I would suspect someone (T/O bidder) building up towards that initial 5% stake before regulations dictate they reveal themselves.

Closing on 109 would be 'nice' for continuance.
(So would closing positively on the right side of 106).

" Hi Velo,
Do you think that there is a market change going on with BT, regarding the share price? Have sellers exhausted?"

Not a case of oversold exhaustion NigeCo, so no, can't say there is any exhaustion of sellers. It's pure strength, not bears backing off.

Need more confirmation to see if this is a continuation of the small peaks and troughs in play since April, and the same old same old - or whether it has legs and goes for a rally proper.

Utra Short term trend is confirmed even if it closes at this level. And currently the next stage up the Short Term trend is behaving v nicely and without jumping the gun another day or 2 (no more) of this performance could turn it into 2 trend lines turning bullish.

That would surely start some of the big auto-bot algo's swimming towards the SP to get in on some of the bullish action.

Hee hee, LOL! Well done lads. (Returns salute). Got a box of medals here if you can go on to take higher ground than 106.
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Part of one of my posts (a short one) has just been published in the chairman's report in the annual results of another stock elsewhere, and released this week along with some other posters comments.

If BT followed suit ( a v good idea) I would love it if they highlighted one of Fleccy's posts to highlight a point or issue they're addressing.

Hope this is the start of something - addressing investors concerns by quoting suitable posts on forums, in their annual reports. Perhaps more retail investors would be encouraged to read the trading reports then :)

Don't waste time checking and rereading, Stoodio. The final bit is a leg pull. :)

Even I, a relative newcomer to SLP get quoted for moaning about buy-backs. Although I did add a sentence saying it's okay if the reason is to use in incentivsing employees and management, which he went on and listed as one of the reasons for doing so.
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Hee hee, Did you see the bit where they comment on Stoodio swearing - saying yeah I swear a bit when I hit my thumb with a hammer when repairing the garden gate. LOL.

Just catching up with a quick review of today's price action in readiness for tomorrow, Wednesday, before turning in.

Knew that results-day of a 52 low was ominous.
Intraday Pivot points were spread out for today. Much closer tonight in readiness for tomorrow, but still spread out more than has been the recent case.

Result is - things are looking a bit heavy. Won't be surprised if the SP flirts below 60 tomorrow, but ultimate fear is closing the day on 58.

In other words; am not expecting anything remotely resembling a good day tomorrow.

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SLP Currently -

Price to 200 day ma trend .= BULLISH!

Long term trends . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Medium term trend . . . . . .= BULLISH
Intermediate trend . . . . . . = BULLISH
Short term trend . . . . . . . . = BULLISH
Ultra-short term trend . . . .= Now turned bearish as of tonight's close.

Defo a more assertive and positive change in the SP behaviour.

Aerial reconnaissance reveal many indicators busy with large troop movements moving up to the front line.

Ultra Fast Short-Term trend line turned bullish tonight. The only one so far; the first of many?

Whatever, something's afoot.

Wednesday, send out a Special Forces unit to test the water. I want to see them take 106 prisoner.
No if's, no but's.

But better still, would be an assault on 109 - but that might be a bridge too far. So surprise me. Show me what you got tomorrow, I know you're planning something.