Member Info for Velo

PS.
Did you see that BT media release yesterday? Said any increase in those working from home will be no problem for the company. Said it will cope easily.

https://www.ft.com/content/8fc92ec2-66c2-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

" BT has said that its residential network would be able to cope with the increased strain of huge swaths of people working from home because of coronavirus, despite a warning from Spanish telecoms companies for citizens to ease off on internet use. "

Telecoms providers in Europe expressing problems - here's what BT said :

" . . . However BT, the operator of the UK’s largest telecoms network, said that it was not anticipating any blackouts or slower speeds for users, even if the country followed Spain in locking down non-essential travel. "

- Then today's price action :) Nicely played, BT.

" All the cat can do now is watch. "

- No, that cat is using a squirrel trend strategy. He's waiting for a trend of them to show up, then he'll have more to choose from.

-----------------------

SP no longer in oversold condition tonight. Confirmed too. Candlesticks love it. ultra short trend lines just about crossed to the upside. Mixed reaction from other indicators. I'm with the cat - for now.

The live opening price of BT (117's) has lifted the SP to sit right on the border of attempting to lift out of oversold. Another positive for BT this morning.

All US, UK & European futures are up significantly overnight and looking like it bodes well for today's FTSE open, shortly.

Buys and sells are not to be taken seriously d955 - total volume only is the dependable.

If a buy or sell fits in the margin difference the computers make a best 'guess' as to whether it' s a buy or a sell. People using a DMA account confuse the computers every single trade. If you check out the Naked Trader from time to time, he's often delighted to boast of buying a stock for no more than the sell price - ( if the DMA account is used skillfully) yet the computers would have listed his purchase as a sell. Checking forums as these you'll often see posters complaining that their buy is now showing up as a sell and vice versa.

PS. US futures bullish immediately after the trading day close and still bullish nearly 2 hours later.

Argghh - It's official with the DOW confirming by it's close of 20,188 that it has now entered market crash arena of CONDITION ONE - met in full.
To recap:

The 'minimum' falls and time spans of the last century's 7 major stock bubbles crashing was a 30% fall from the all time high of the leading US indices in a prompt timescale of 3 months. Longer and it's not a crash - just a bear market (correction supposed to = 20%). It's done it, in just days over one month!

The DOW hit its all time high of 29,560 on 12th Feb; and tonight's close on the DOW (another one day record broken by the US markets tonight) decisively cracks through the 30% fall to 20,692 to close tonight at 20,188 for the first time. It's done it intraday, during futures - but this is the first in live trading as a close!

If that's all it ever does, then it'll be a less severe recession to come.

CONDITION TWO - is more worrisome. The ACTUAL average for the DOW was a 42% fall from the all time high in a faster period of just 2.6 months. Those were severe crashes.

So a 42% fall from the all time high, gives a DOW of 17,145 points !
That's another 15% fall from here - but it has barely only another 1.6 months to do it in, otherwise it's outside the averages of all the worst crashes.
(17,145 by early May to qualify?)

Also, they all had on average one major big 50% bounce amongst the smaller bounces that occurred all the way down (dead cat bounce).

This has been the longest bull market in recorded financial history. And history shows the longer the bull market, the deeper the fall when it comes. The average bear market from history lasts 18 months. However, the 1929 crash took 20 years before it recovered back to the same values. This bull market has been greater than, that leading up to 1929.

That's the averages from history, for the indices, that's all.

Tried to get BT's history of the 2007/2209 era (the last crash to fit with the above but it didn't fit with the US indices averages, including the lack of a 50% bounce in the first major bounce in those average crashes).

BT went from 320p-ish down to 80p-ish over 18 months approx (late 2007 to spring 2009).

BT will have its own path to follow, and may be a separate issue to the above.

The above are historic averages, with obvious consequences for us. Will history repeat itself? Maybe/ maybe not.

" I'm not touching anything until I see a bit of hope."

Smartest comment I've yet read!

- although the Chinese-white-suit-villains, wearing a black eyepatch whilst stroking a white cat, and masterfully actioning a Goldfinger type world-control conspiracy post, had me ROFL my rrs off.

Concludes:

I don't think debt is a pressing issue right now for BT (not until circa 2026, and won't cease peaking until 2023/'25-ish) although the market must think so; but Revenue is instead. Revenue has been declining continually for so many years and forecast to continue to decline into the future, it looks deeply unattractive on the balance sheets. After the May results are released I'm thinking pressure should be put on revenue. Get that right and debt/gearing will begin taking care of itself IMO. Revenue has been a neglected as an issue for too long.

Debt is not "fixable" it's actually needed until the country's fast fibre etc is all in place. So no quick remedies. Revenue is the antidote - it just won't stop falling, getting ridiculous now.
Chicken and egg situation. Which comes first - the infrastructure FFibre build or revenue?

Fleccy, wish you hadn't posted that; I'm running late now LOL!

Page 1 ( & a bit )

Don't know about the other competitors Fleccy, but for both BT & VOD, debt might be playing on the market's mind. Clearing out my email boxes and just glanced at the title page of this week's free 'Shares' mag (which generally haven't read for years) and they've done a 6 page or so, special on:

*** Corporate debt crisis: The stocks you shouldn't own ***

Now BT nor VOD aren't mentioned in there. (The likes of RR are though). Haven't read it, but I'm suggesting that if this is the typical thinking and advice being given to combat a bear market as stocks to avoid in the current crisis, then it might go someway to explaining the continual regression of BT's SP to date.

Just a couple of quickie copy/pastes to get the flavour:

" Just as coronavirus can kill people with health issues, it could potentially do the same to companies with underlying health problems.
To put it bluntly, you do not want to own any stocks at present which have very large debt positions relative to the value of their business and the scale of their earnings. "

( BT's debts mostly don't mature until 2026, so they've got half this decade to go before having to cough up or re-arrange.

I've done posts on Net debt / gearing and leverage being a bit on the naughty side, but not dangerously so, (and no time to re-visit them today) as FCFlow and liquidity are currently satisfactory to take care of things. But if all investors/fund managers take away, is avoid big-debt companies in a bear market, then imagine what's seeping through as a sweeping generality into the wider market for companies in that situation. )

"Beware of Gearing.
For firms which are operationally geared, meaning they have high fixed costs and need a certain level of income to generate profits, a fall in revenue is a major worry. For firms which are not just operationally geared but also financially geared, meaning they have lots of debt which needs servicing, a fall in revenue could be catastrophic."

(As I've highlighted in previous months - BT's gearing/leverage is of some concern)

"There are advantages and disadvantages to using debt. In legal terms, debt ranks higher than equity which means if things go wrong banks and bondholders can take over a company at the expense of shareholders. This can happen when financial covenants are breached, which was the case at retailer Debenhams, which is now owned by its lenders.

Using debt responsibly can help companies pay lower taxes as interest payments reduce taxable profit, and can boost returns on equity. However too much debt can spell trouble for shareholders as their interests are put at risk from claims by lenders. "

Continues > > >

Latest analysts results came in yesterday but was too busy to post. (Getting ready for at least 2 weeks away on other matters).

Was keen to see if the pandemic virus would impact analysts perceptions, but strangely it's dated 28th Feb. It was overdue anyway, so thought they'd skip and go straight to this Friday's date, which would be more meaningful.

Several due between here and May. Not going to mention each of them as they come out, as expecting little change, or I was - before the virus took over events, so now, they could potentially contain meaningful changes.

Anyway, virtually no change to the consensus forecast from the latest update on Q4 Revenue, as they're still forecasting it coming under £23b at £22.8b and net profit still forecasting below £2b at £1.98bn (pro-rata for pre-tax profit etc.,)

Next year is much the same as was previously updated, for both Revenue and net profit

The year after '21/'22 also much the same with revenue continuing to decline but only slightly (£22.6b) and Net profit back up, to slightly to just the right side of £2b net profit.

Pretty much all as was in their 14th Feb forecast.

Be very interesting to see what their next will be, as that would squarely take the full impact of the virus/stock market reaction into account, I would assume. Jansen said after Q3 that all would be better in Q4, but he said that before the current world events unfolded.

Got some interesting stats from Italy on the deaths from COVID-19.

With the UK being at the early stages I think it's a handy reference guide for British males and it's this:

First off, 59% of the deaths in Italy are 80 or older.

14% of the deaths were over age 90.
45% were between 80 and 89
32% were between 70 and 79
8% were between 60 and 69
2% were between 50 and 59
0% under age 50

Aged 50 is the current demarcation zone with zero deaths under age 50 (Italy only).

Also, it's predominately males that died from the virus too.

------------------------
Deaths in Italy running at a 6.2% mortality rate too (It's been suggested that the continental custom of a light peck on both cheeks may account for Italy being hit so hard (Even saw mention of a follow-up peck on the lips too, after the cheeks!).

Time to endorse the British stiff upper lip then?

Most who contracted it (and survive) reported only light symptoms with reports of children getting it too, but so light that parents didn't report it to their doctor, as they didn't deem it a cold.

I'm leaving it for tonight. Should the DOW break past the 30% drop from it's all time high on Feb 12th tomorrow of down to 20,690 then that IMO would be Condition One met - and in my book (it's been flirting with it on futures tonight, below it, above it etc.,) and would not be a bear market but have entered the territory of a genuine full sockmarket bubble crash with severe consequences to come.

Daren't post how low the next drop will have to be to meet the second condition as can hardly believe my own eyes. It's all at the borderline as I post in a will it, won't it, break past area. Perhaps overnight futures can bounce away up from the entrance to death valley and stay out of it and become a simple bear market correction only?

Toff last night @
" Well the sixes didn’t last long. We’ve now jumped back about three decades to the fives.
It feels like time travel- but backwards is never a good direction to go. "

Does it - feel like time travel. What you trying to pull here?

Three decades ago means 1990. And that is just 6 years after the FTSE100 was created and launched upon the world starting at 1000 points. By 1990 it had only risen to 2143 - yet you claim it was that far back since the FTSE had ever been so low!

Why would you say that?

Is that because you're so enamoured of your MIB conspiracy theory about the entire FTSE being kept down by some mysterious MIB?

As far as I can tell THE VERY LAST TIME THE FTSE WAS IN THE FIVES WAS JUST 8 YEARS AGO -

2012
&
2011
&
2010
&
2009

All 4 years were in the fives - starting just 8 years ago - not 30 years ago.

Are you twisting to promote your fantasies and tell others it was three decades ago to run the FTSE down as being somehow manipulated?

I let it pass as there's nearly always a howler in every other one of your posts - but when you indirectly claimed to be superior to Warren Buffett, I thought that was no typo - you deliberately misled as you have a thing about your 'permabear100' don't you?

" I can’t tell you who I work for or what I do. "

Ha! Reminds me when I was sent undercover to Ireland (Dublin) back in the day, and met up with two other colleagues after I was flown up to Glasgow where cash was slid across a table for expenses and we were all sworn to secrecy. We practised out default replies to any nosey questions as back then they were knee-capping businessmen they considered enemies.

Anyway off the plane and we got in a taxi.. And straight off the bat the taxi driver dived straight in and asked outright:

"Well what are you lads here for?"

The one question we hadn't expected so soon - the three of us looked at each other in stunned silence. And then broke out in uncontrollable laughter at our uselessness. We were incapable of anything all the way to the hotel. God knows what the taxi driver made of us. (We were monitored by Noraid though 'the girls' told us they were watching our back when it was all over as they had persistent offers of "help" to deal with us.

" so you can fire off all the insults you wish."
Eh? Not aware I have to date, this year.

- Google Dofe and you'll see it come up as that.

PS. Bring me back a hot Geisha girl! - I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so.....

" . . . Dofe ( and his colleagues) have been warning about the problems being stoked up by companies for years - although we don’t invest directly in the stock market- we make our money by attempting to foresee the, often minor, geo-political events that drive and move the markets and invest accordingly, ahead of the game. . . . "

My Question:
- You touched glancingly on this the other week. I'm intrigued. Would you be able to expand a little further on the actual process of how you actually make your money from all this, as you admit to NOT investing directly? Organisations etc.,

Simple innocent curiosity compels me to ask, that's all, nothing more.

DOFE - Hmm . . . = Duke OF Edinburgh award ??? :)

Well that was Futures suspended. Live markets have now opened in the US and are off. DOW is 1600 points down already. Circuit breakers to be employed again ready to shut things down.

Just as I was checking on some calcs on the DOW everything on US markets froze solid whilst all other world markets flashed up and down. Assume it's another suspension close down. Things getting well out of control now. What I was working on was how far to reach a DOW collapse before confirming that this is not a retrace reaction to virus and oil concerns but the actual stock market collapse embryonic stage that leads on to even greater grief. I had just concluded that another 1,700 point fall in the DOW takes things there, when there markets froze up as it reached near 1200 points drop today so far.

So a further 1700 point fall in days to come is just arms reach away. I have my plan in place should that crisis point arrive and the subsequent 50% dead cat bounce occur (ie., sell all my holdings no matter what).

Just can't believe this could be it with the DOW not first hitting over 33,000 points.

Being this close to the stock market bubble burst is nauseous. Hard to think straight. I was fervently of the belief the DOW would hit 33,000 to 35,000 max before this sheet hit the fans. Still time for it to bounce from here and be measured as no more than a market correction. But it is perilously close to calling it the commencement of a full stock market crash. Just not quite yet IMO.

" One individual on this board seems convinced that the BT Group is heading towards a low of 68p"

- It was originally posted by what can only be described as a Tourettes syndrome poster. It's what came out his mouth at random. Could just easily have been the other way round and 86p.

Just depended on who he thought was staring at him that day.

" I wasn't going to say anything, but i bought nearly 12,500 Vodafone shares today at 119.5p. "

Ahhh Feccy, you do know you're going to make that throbbing vein on the side of his temple burst don't you?

Just make sure axes and landladies aren't in the same room as he is, because after you buying Vodafone - after he's as good as told you not to, means another landlady gets it.