Member Info for uncertain

The price of this stock is 8p. It hasn't varied from that by more than 2% either way for ages. One explanation is that the hedge means the gold price is irrelevant to this share. I believe that it is being held here artificially by major institutional holders to prevent the old bond holders from profiting unduly from conversion. Does anyone out there believe this view is unduly conspiratorial?

agreed, I have just tripled my holding

as I think KAZ may bottom out soon and move back up. intuitioin, not analysis

$pog and a rising pound have pushed the �pog to within �8 of its low for the year and not far from the levels seen in December of last year. Given the likely agreement to start Brexit trade talks and the further impetus that would bring to sterling, plus the determination of the cartel to keep the $pog well below $1300, and adding in the most recent failure of CEY to reach breakout, I have decided to reduce my position in CEY to a little below 20%. I will be watching the position carefully and may reduce further if I think it wise. I have bought into other stocks i follow which seem to be at a low point in their respective cycle and will be following a medium term trading strategy rather than holding any one stock for too long. That may include getting back in to CEY if I am proved wrong! For the sake of loyal long term holders, may I be proved wrong. Sotolo's warnings about possible downside to $pog have kept this approach in the back of my mind for sometime, but it is the rise in sterling which worries me more at present. GLA

Thanks Tucson - very helpful - I look forward to part 2 when you have time. Since you are going out to dinner at 23.35 UK time I assume you are not posting from the UK, so I will wait until later in the day. My "analysis" is backward looking. I notice that copper stocks are currently at the low point of their LME 200,000 to 350,000 range (from the Kitco site). The turnaround point in copper prices happened in late spring / early summer 2016 when LME stocks last hit 150,000. The stock levels seem to have formed a saw tooth pattern over the last couple of years which I don't fully understand. I am aware that the COMEX stocks are also important, but they seem to vary much less than the LME figures. I should probably look at a longer time series for COMEX than that provided by Kitco. My conclusion is that the overproduction and high stock levels experienced in 2012/13 and which the market may not have been convinced were over until 2015, are now behind us and I am reasonably confident that the very low price levels experienced then will not be repeated in the near future. I am a little concerned that the decline in the dollar index throughout 2017 may account for a sizeable portion of the copper price increase, but I have not yet done this analysis. Forward looking analysis is of course more difficult, but also more useful. In the case of gold, I don't even attempt but just consider volatility as a risk in the market alongside others

I've recently discovered our counterindicator works for KAZ as well

whoops. I meant gold price movements from dollar index movements

But the quality of the sxx posts is a little disappointing.Most o them seem to be about Brexit, religion or jokes. I have about 20% in KAZ at present but about half of it I trade to take advantage of the volatility. Is there a bit more analysis behind that copper price forecast of yours? I watch the stock levels on Kitco to try and guess which way the price may go, but they seem to be on a fairly steady cyclical pattern at present with no clear relationship with price changes. With my gold mine holdings I have worked out an indicator which helps me separate gold price movements from copper price movements. I wonder to what extent copper price increases have just been mirroring dollar index falls?

is continuing. bad for CEY but at least it reduces the Brexit bill

I have also bought a few back after selling some this morning, but I also decided to play with fire with a small stake over at CLLN, and also diversifed into KAZ and GFRD which I think are underpriced at present

is this a paper gold goldslap this afternoon?

a little on the $pog drop this afternoon, but possibly coming on the back of the rise in the pound this morning it is understandable. Some of the fall in the $pog is offset with the rise in the dollar index. I sold a few at 142+ but may get back in if it gets much lower.

is down this morning, probably because of the rise in the pound following the upwardly revised Brexit offer

going on over in ii and advfn about whether we are breaking out or not with a concensus that we are not quite there yet. Sotolo's favourite counter indicator thinks we have broken out, so that is not good news. On gold, although we are in the 1290s my diapog measure suggests only a very weak and hesitant rise. i agree with all recent posters that the news from CEY continues to be good, but the chartists seem less optimistic than the fundamentals analysis indicates. We may still be in wait and see territory.

in September and October after declining for most of 2017, but seems to have resumed its downward movement in November. This is mirrored in the rise in the $pog, peaking at the start of September but falling back in September and October, to revoer somewhat this month. If the fall in the dollar index continues towards the end of the year we should really be looking for a $pog in the $1290s or over $1300. The current $pog is lagging a little and not responding immediately to the current fall in the dollar. This analysis is based on a stalling diapog at present. The $pog does sometimes lag in reponse to a fall in the dollar index, so I shall be watching for a positive response over the next couple of weeks, if the dollar index continues its current fall

Yes, I have seen various chartist comments, on this board and elsewhere, suggesting we are not quite there on the breakout. I am basing my purchase on a mixture of chartist and fundamentalist principles. The chart is nearly there, but a mixture of good final year output results, fairly resilient gold prices, likely excellent final year financial outcomes, probable good resource update, EMRA amelioration, West African possibilities, and final digestion by the market of the new profit share arrangements, all lead me to believe we will have a string of encouraging RNSs over the next three months which could push us over the line with the chart. I am calling this approoach Chartmentalism and will let you know how it works out. I have therefore upped my holding here considerably, but will ease back in the New Year if I am proved wrong. I will also be taking profits on a proportion of my holding with any good short term movements

at 142.8 this morning. The break out is looking fairly solid in my view with the prospect of a run of good news in the next few months

Click on the first half of Istabraq's link

nvrgiveup, many thanks for extracting the essential highlights from a very lengthy and complex document. I have had a quick skim of the document this morning but was unable to be sure whether the repayment schedule to the banks was going to be speeded up, or what remaining potential loan facilities with the banks would remain open. I was left with the impression that POG will use the new notes to ensure liquidity and CAPEX over the next couple of years and may not accelerate bank debt repayment much, but I could be wrong on this

They would be wise to keep a loan facility open and will probably not pay off all the debt to begin with while the POX project is completed. There is likely to be a short term net increase in interest cost over the next year - perhaps 8% on $100m - but after that I would expect them to pay this down fairly quickly and start to accumulate funds from free cashflow to pay off both sets of bondholders although I anticipate a net debt in 2022 - how much is difficult to say, but between $100m and $200m would be fine by me especially if the sp is in the 15p-20p range by then. Of course the difficulty is getting to 2022 without a takeover