Member Info for uncertain

Thanks for your help bottled. I notice comex and lme stocks have started to turn up now. I still don't understand the shfe data

Thanks for the link Bottled. I use Kitco to track Comex and LME warehouse stock levels. Comex has been rising slowly but has flattened out recently; LME is usually in a range between 350k and 200k but is currently 192k. In the link there is reference to shfe (shanghai) stocks, but I couldn't get data on these stocks. can you help me to improve my understanding of the supply position by finding a source for this figure. Thanks?

Good read Tucson.If smelter capacity is running behind production that would indicate a build up of stocks for miners. If smelter capacity is running behind demand, that would indicate an increase in price for cathode. Of course both things could be happening at the same time

The debasement of currency by inflation is not the real issue (inflation rates are in any case at historic low levels recently). The important issue is the real rate of interest i.e.nominal interst minus the rate of inflation (an approximation, but works well for low levels of both). At present in the UK the real interest rate is negative because of the slide in the value of sterling which is largely responsible for the current rise in inflation. Whether you are for or against Brexit, it is clearly reducing the value of sterling, creating inflation and eroding wealth held within the UK. Things may (or may not) improve after March 2019.

In relation to gold, more gold has been mined since the time of the Romans (and some plundered from Central America), but then again there are many more people. The supply and the demand have both gone up, but I have no idea which has gone up by more. Bitcoin is of course a bubble along the lines of the dutch tulip bulb bubble.It is a vast Ponzi scheme. It cannot be money because it has vast instability in value. I personally dislike it because it is part of the illusion spread by the robber barons of the IT industry that they know better than the government and they are truly on the side of the individual. It is also the asset of choice for criminals and terrorists.Good luck with timing your exit

amount to a small dilution?

for copper price forecasts. I would welcome advice from fellow posters Copper stocks are continuing to fall at present, but the cureent price rally may nevertheless be running out of steam as it is based on expectations about the future

I agree with your view of bondholders Contrarian. A different cup of tea from the speculative PI (although not without their own form of risk taking) Meanwhile, on a day when most goldminers fell between 1 and 2%, in the face of a falling $pog and a rising �,, POG is almost exactly where it was on Friday and very close to its " natural price" of 8p. Suggestions for this ongoing phenomenon welcome

Here is a tiny bit of analysis. Clearly progress on Brexit is pushing sterling up which makes profits earned abroad worth less and also the price of copper was a little indecisive and clearly downwards for some of today - so a disproportionate drop is what you would expect from Kaz. I remain reasonably confident that the price of copper should steady if not rise

A positive sign

It apears that the success of my intuition has been shortlived! I now have a strong and overwhelming feeling that I don't know what is going to happen next

in a small way at 136.6p

at the weekend I have sold up this morning but will be watching carefully for a re-entry point. The $pog is already down and the dollar index is up without the US markets ( and perhaps in anticipation of them). GLA

I think I may have got my US democratic procedures wrong in the last post. I think some kind if merger between lesgilation passed in the House of Representatives and the Senate is needed which is further along the road to a Trump victory than I previously thought. The rate of corporation tax is being reduced from 35% to 20%, but apparently there are so many loopholes in the existing legislation that the effective rate of corporation tax has been estimated at about 22%. Still, enough for an uplift in US shares in the morning.

through the Senate early this morning and now just has to go through the House of Representatives. Expect a major takedown of gold in the paper markets on Monday and a major boost to the Dow, Nasdaq and the dollar.

Marmot, I think your explanation is more likely. You have to have a detailed understanding of US politics to second guess the gold markets these days. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq have both just dropped about 1.5% suddenly, so that all fits together. Ah well, perhaps $1300 is back on. I sold on an average of 142 earlier in the week so I am still ahead, but need to watch developments carefully!

$pog up, dollar index down lurch! No doubt there is some news about the US economy which I haven't heard yet. My diapog measure is still showing weakness but has eased up a little.

Thanks for the reminder workingstiff. The question still remains, with other goldies being fairly volatile these days, why is POG trading in such a narrow range?

I am not very good at the legalese in the bond issue and its conditions, but my understanding is that conversion is at a fixed price of 8.26p or 12.53 US c (based on the exchange rate at the time). If the price of the share is below this, then it would make sense to take the money rather than convert to shares. There is also the possibility of redemption from March next year. Once again, I am not very good at the legalese and the conditions attached, but would welcome comments from others. I am aware that there has been discussion of thisissue in the past, but it is now becoming relevant to dilution

are at their lowest level for almost 18 months. If there is no upturn soon, I can see the price of copper moving up substantially