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since the early September peak. Back to November levels in terms of �pog. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow afternoon when NY opens. By rights we should clear 160 in the morning provided this trend continues.

in the price of copper have to be set in the context of a falling dollar index. To some extent the rise in the dollar price of copper mirrors the dollars fall. The sp of kaz is of course in sterling, so what is particularly important is the $/� rate. My observation in a related share (CEY: gold) is that the sp tends to follow the dollar price of gold in the short term but corrects to the sterling price of gold as the implications for profits become clear. KAZ may follow the dollar price of copper up if this trend continues, but may correct later when exchange rate implications become clearer. As you may know I am not currently invested in KAZ. GLA

Of course the 86% might be an underestimate!

Tucson, I assure you I am perfectly capable of getting it horribly wrong - its all a matter of averages. I note on the CEY forum that you have have got out saying you understand copper better than gold. I am probably the the other way round. Thanks for reminding me of the results date. There is a preliminary results date on CEY of January 9th which I want to stay in for. Thanks for the CASP suggestion, Bottled. Have you noticed there is a (fairly unhelpful) RNS there this morning? Still very speculative over there I think but worth a punt at this stage. It will probably come good but its a question of when

I also lost on the way down by selling and then rebuying at a lower price a few times. Today I sold up KAZ to take a profit around 880 and moved the money into CASP, GFRD and CEY. I expect to buy back into KAZ later but hopefully after I make a little on these three shares. Copper stocks remain flat, but I think the price of copper rose too quickly and will continue to drop back a little for a while. I hope to be back in before the end of the month when you can all tell me I got it horribly wrong!. GLA

at 2 pm New York time? If so it was very ineffective!

Yes, that makes more sense!

Sorry Sotolo, couldn't understand your last post. Especially the bit about god.

Well I think on this occasion he could be right. He can't be wrong all the time, can he? Sometimes he makes a mistake and gets it right. I bought a few more today anyway. The discussion on iii is about gold being overbought. It's not overbought in sterling or euros. The rise in the $pog is the inverse of a fall in the dollar index. Mind you that won't necessarily stop a gold slap at some point as I suggested yesterday

The dollar has fallen about 10% against a basket of currencies in the dollar index over the past year. It has fallen by about this amount against the AUD as well. The pound was also falling through much of the last year because of the effect of Brexit negotiations. It has recently come up a little because we have got through the first stage of the negotiations with th EU. No-one really knows how the next stage of the negotiations will go so the pound may go in either direction over the next few months. I have always argued that it is the sterling price of gold which matters to the value of CEY in sterling. I think you should be interested in the AUD price of gold as an indicator of how well you will do if you sell in the future

a gold slap in the morning (in New York). The US will want to stabilise the decline of their currency. Gold has risen massively in dollars today, but only a little in pounds. Both currencies are on the move. Sterling is up against most currencies and the dollar is down against most currencies. This may create a buying opportunity for CEY in the afternoon if it reponds in the usual way to a drop in the $pog.

by mirroring a fall in the dollar index, but now gold seems to be rising in all currencies. The excellent output results at the end of the year together with a strengthening pog bodes well for the sp next week. I have switched some of my KAZ holding into CEY in the hope of a rise of 5% or more. I may then switch back into KAZ for their February results. I am also currently in CASP and CLLN which both look ready to move ( but both a bit risky as well !)

The chart you post creates the illusion that KAZ is the same company as it was in 2011. After the price of copper fell it sold off all the unprofitable bits and more or less began again with new opencast low cost mines constructed with massive loans. It may as well be a new business, but in my view a much better business - so I agree with you about the potential - but not that it has anything to do with the chart.

A lot of commodity price forecasts are based on extrapolation of trends rather than considered analysis. The decision to cut smelter capacity in China for environmental reasons during the winter has come since those forecasts. The world economy seems to be growing well (shame about the UK) which helps. Changes in sentiment in the futures markets can affect spot. My approach to copper prices is to keep an eye on stocks on COMEX and LME which have both flattened out recently. I wouldn't like to go too far into the future with forecasts, but the stock levels indicate Bottled is correct in the near future. That is until the stock levels suddenly change and wrong foot us all. I am 35% in KAZ at present and will hold for now while this trend continues.

Looking at the price of gold over the last year, it has risen about $160, but only about £40, and is more or less flat in Euros. The main thing that has changed is the value of the dollar. Using my diapog measure, gold is up $16 on the year. If speculation that trouble with bitcoin will affect gold positively is correct, I think gold may have some considerable upside in the new year. It looks high in dollar terms but in other currencies has moved little during the year. However, because of the inverse relationship between the dollar and the $pog, further slides in the value of the dollar may result in Fed inspired intervention to keep a lid on gold. This inverse relationship is not exact and the $pog can drift up over a period without putting undue pressure on the dollar index. Most of the slide in the dollar index occurred in the first half of the year, and its value has flattened since the summer. It may be that the Fed has a target range fot the dollar which it is trying to maintain. This is all speculation of course, but my feeling is that the $pog will rise slowly and may be subject to renewed goldslaps in the new year. I am therefore expecting gold to stay in a range between $1280 and $1320 in the first quarter of the year, providing a solid background for CEY profitability. . Using this gold price range, an output forecast of 600k oz, and a P/E of 10 before profit share, my model forecasts an sp of 190-210 for next year. This is of course a one mine forecast without a court case settlement. I think we could get into the 170-180 range on the basis of good final output results and a resource review.

installed their own board who are still in position. Will the new owners instigate another shake-up?

Tuscan you are right - I skimmed them too quickly. There are two RNS's relating to Fincraft, one seeming to indicate that their intial position was partly sold on somewhere else. Both transactions took place on 21/12/17 and may account for the sudden shifts in the sp before xmas.

is related to Renova somehow, and Renova did have a shareholding in Metcombank (based in Moscow). I don't know if this is still the case. I don't know of any link with Fincraft Holdings

appear to be an Indian investmeny fund based in Sri Lanka http://fincraftholdings.com/

have sold to Fincraft Holdings, Metcombank and Lamesa