Member Info for uncertain

Thanks for the back story. I'll look into it.

but CASP have been falling more or less continuously since the end of October. Why do you believe in them?

Like you I got back into CEY in the 150s, but have ameliorated that with some day/ short term trading. I also got out of SXX about 32, but have dipped in and out since almost always making a loss! Good luck with Ivanhoe mines

On the one year chart there is a similar pattern in the spring where there is a small upturn which is shortlived, but then the saw tooth pattern returns (something must have changed about the way they do business about 2 years ago). I regard the current stock behaviour as something to watch rather than conclusive evidence of continuing falling stocks. If it continues I may buy more, but that depends on the renewed possibility of a CEY breakout

but witch way will gold go? I haven't got a clue - any better informed people out there?

have flattened out recently http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#nymexstocks_30days I don't have the figures for the east but Comex has flattened out and the saw tooth pattern which has prevailed in LME stocks has had progressively lower bottoms and is currently flattening out and refusing to turn back up in the latest cycle.

Theresa May's defeat last night has pushed sterling up this morning, as the likelihood of a softer Brexit becomes greater, and this has meant that the £pog has not risen much. CEY is following the $pog today as often occurs, or perhaps the imminent passing of the various hurdles for the gold price over the last week or so has meant people are now focussing on the excellent fundamentals and not worrying quite so much about the gold price. Of course, sterling may drop again when the EU trade negotiations run into difficulties. Perhaps insiders have a better idea of the outcome of the derivatives markets tomorrow than we have, and now have a more positive view of future gold prices. If the gold price comes out of derivatives settlement unscathed tomorrow, I have a positive feel about CEY

Sotolo, I think your belief that gold shares predict gold prices is open to question. I think both gold shares and gold follow their own random walk and are often out of phase with each other which makes it look as though one is predicting the other. There may be something in it, but I am a little sceptical. This week we also have options and futures markets settling so this adds another layer of uncertainty. The small jump in gold prices overnight is difficult to interpret because there are so many events that might have caused it (see posts below) but i think it may be largely a sell on the rumour buy on the news situation. Next week the trends should become more apparent. Currently my mining shares are split evenly between gold and copper with a small amount of potash

Hi Sotolo, I am also concerned about the downside risk of gold and have been taking advantage of the current volatility of copper to switch between CEY and KAZ. My holding of CEY has ranged between 5% and 30% recently but I also cashed in a few and dropped to 15% this morning, putting the balance in KAZ, This is of course a high risk strategy and doesn't always work in the way I expect. i would like to have a higher holding in CEY by the end of the year.

advfn about Renova / Veckselberg selling "Gold of Kamchatka" for 500m. Possibly speculation about this has led to some selling this morning

back up to 20% this afternoon, as I feel a great deal of uncertainty about Brexit has now gone, or at least has been postponed. At the same time the bitcoin surge to $17000 and subsequent drop to $14500 in a short space of time may shift some safe haven investment across to gold. My expectations about profitability suggest CEY has been undervalued for some time, but my concerns about the $pog and £/$ rate has kept me from re-investing until now

Well Tibbs, your comment today on gold is exactly why we need you on this board. Thanks for the useful contribution. I think the change in the tone of discussion on the board was temporary, and normal service has now been resumed

above the lowest point of £pog since the referendum. The rise in the £/$ rate following the move into phase 2 of the brexit negotiations will push the £pog down further unless the $pog bounces back. Once that process is completed (? by next week) the CEY positives often discussed on this board may take the SP bsck up again. I am holding off for the moment

Hi Tibbs, we're missing you over on CEY

measure (dollar index adjusted price of gold) and this also down at levels experienced at the end of December 2016. There was however a period in July of this year when it was lower than it is currently. I calculate the diapog by multiplying the $pog by the dollar index. Interpretation is the difficult bit. Does that mean we are about to bounce? Unfortunately I have no idea.

was this low was on 29th December 2016. I think gold may well bounce but knowing when is the difficult bit. At present this is looking like a rerun of last year

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-12-07/commodities-crumble-again-as-china-alarm-bells-sink-metals

seems to be promoting gold miners at present. I subscribe to their emails as a way of testing the water on (fairly) mainstream thinking. i don't usually follow their advice. Still, an interesting development

I think you got a good price for the day. I was lucky enough to sell most of mine in the low 140s / high 130s, but will hold onto my remaining 5% for now.

Hi Sotolo, I am down to 5% in CEY and up to 20% in cash. I have also lost over in KAZ and am slowly reducing my position there. I think we are entering a very uncertain period in relation both the $pog and The £/$ rate, so my current feeling is to wait it out.