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The key figure in your figures is the sell price per test, from which the number of tests can be determined (given a £75M contract).

I've seen figures on this forum of anything between £5 and £17 per test. Which means a range of 4.5-15M tests. ODX will make a profit of around £1 per test.

But given we don't know ABI's sell price to UK gov, it makes the other extrapolated figures unreliable to say the least.

"This is what i dislike about ODX, its a traders dream, but LTH are often hung out to dry. Nearly every single news item following Ulster has been leaked first. Almost to the point that when its announced, it hold no value as the market has corrected itself or quite frankly its common news."

This is not a leak, because it is a govern contract, it has to be notified by the government. It is very likely that the consortium knew there is a major order pending, but did not know the exact figure (50M,60M,75M,100M). However, I'd agree that an RNS should be sitting ready, just waiting the the correct figure to be put in.

The interconnect between the different parties might make things difficult. It is likely that ODX is under an NDA until the formal announcement by the member of the group that is fulfilling the tender...i.e. ABI. An NDA will prevent and RNS.

Its impossible CK didnt have knowledge of this prior to it being published on the bid website. Why wasn't an RNS prepped ready for the announcement?

The image on the innovemedgroup website actually shows the biotime test, so yes Chinese
http://www.biotime.cn/En_Pr_d_gci_80_id_69.html

That's an antibody test, wonder who is supplying their antigen test.
Trump must love the notion of a US company selling chinese covid-19 testing kits.

I have a feeling that they're probably fronting for a Chinese manufacturer, rather than designing and manufacturing themselves.

Whois confirms that the domain name was registered for the first time in May of this year.

I suggest this is the test that Boris has been 'bigging up' this last week or so, when he referred to a 15-min test.

Its comparable in that the deal has gone to a US company, I assume because no UK company could supply.

innovamedgroup.com have an interesting website, its a single page. Is this just a sales company selling other products ?

...and to be clear I meant lateral flow type test.

Timing is everything, and mologic should have prioritised development of an antigen test over an antibody test.

RegulatorUK

Thanks for those details, good info.

The price I pick is the one intimated by ODX.
"however Omega expects to receive revenue per test which is slightly ahead of market expectations as outlined in 22 June 2020 analyst forecasts:"

Which if you read up, makes the profit about £1 a unit

Picking other prices for the UK supply is just plain wrong.

A wee bit more reading shows that although this fortress test ultimately uses lateral flow, it is a swab, plus a bit of prep, prior to dropping onto lateral flow, so needs to be done in a lab.

Looks like thats an antigen test. Una Health is the supplier. They sell something called the "fortress antigen Lateral flow test". Wonder who makes that.

Why do people keeping talking about £15 for ODX for the Uk test ????

ODX JUST TOLD US SOME MINUTES AGO, that it's a little ahead of the previous prediction, which makes it about £1 profit per test.

People are talking about "first refusal"

The RNS is pretty clear, the terms are more stringent that first refusal. It says "should the DHSC allow the supply of AbC-19(TM) Rapid tests to third party customers, the terms of this contract will apply between the consortium members."

That's more stringent that first refusal. In a worst case scenario, UK can not place orders AND not given permission to sell to 3rd party.

However, dialing the above and the ramp up in production capability together, you could argue that no company in their right mind would incur the costs of ramping up on the basis that 1 customer might not make an order AND forbid them from having other customers. So ODX must surely have reasonable insight as to the order stream ?

Couple of points.

I think many here thought we were already capable of 200K a week. That capacity isn't being reached for another 6 weeks. Of course that's a little academic as we don't have the orders yet that would require an increase in capacity. The note from Finncap on 22-June indicated that 200K would be reached by end of Sept, so we are somewhat behind were it was previously anticipated. But we already knew that from CKs presentation.

Also, although the RNS states "Omega expects to receive revenue per test which is slightly ahead of market expectations as outlined in 22 June 2020 analyst forecasts", that note does not suggest a per product price. It is the note of the 29-June that indicates a per product profit of about 75p. So increase that to maybe 90p-£1, given the RNS today.

I wonder whether everyone shares profit equally. Is it possible that ODX is acting as a sub-supplier, supplying ABI at a manufacturing price, with ABI getting a bigger profit as the actual company doing the sales ?

Where are people getting the £17 figure from for non-UK sales ?

MHRA approval is starting to be a bit of a bugbear for me.

"To help you with your research , the Abbott test needs a machine and a medical profession to administer it’s not a POC self administered LFT , home test providing a result in 15 minutes ."

Perhaps I should help you with your research
https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month

Test delivers results in just 15 minutes with no instrumentation or equipment required.
Company will ship tens of millions of tests in September, ramping to 50 million tests a month at the beginning of October

The title of this thread makes no mention that the test is a uk test. Why can’t this be the abbot lateral flow test ?

Whats the sensitivity and specificity like ?

Know very little about NYCT, are they a pure manufacturer like ODX, or do they hold significant Covid related IP ?

The title of this thread says RTC, but the body of the quoted article says NOTHING about rapid test consortium, just covid-19 testing strategy.

"... the evidence is that this virus overwhelms even the most robust immune systems."

Hmmm, as suspiciously sounds like Covid has a 100% mortality rate.

You surely meant "it can overwhelm".