Member Info for TWatcher

the rtc test was ce approved in sept 2020, but its entry says it was updated may of this year
https://covid-19-diagnostics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/devices/detail/1992

Anthonyw

its been ce marked since Dec 2020

"What we need to do now is, after you've been double vaccinated, you should actually get the virus. "

I understand the underlying sentiment, but given some double vaxxed people will still die if they get covid, do you take the small chance (maybe bigger depending on age, conditions, viral load, and probably some stuff we don't know) that you'll end up dead or with long covid, or do you continue to try to stop getting it.

I wonder has it now been concluded by those in the know, that even if every single person has good vaxx protection, the infectiousness of covid and the ability of covid to infect and/or make ill a proportion of vaxxed people, is such that covid will not get to such a low R number that it dies out .

There are few different things in here.

is the strategy right...i.e. is dosing everyone with vaccine just pushing a bigger problem down the line.

Are the vaccines safe

Most of these things ultimately come down to whether you trust the decisions the experts are making or not.

For example on strategy, you might say doesn't giving the flu vaccine year after year just eventually lead to an really bad flu that kills 100ks in the UK 1 year. It hasn't so far, but can you take that and extrapolate to covid...i've no idea, but then like the rest of us I'm just a layman.

Is it right to compare the carefulness of prescribing antibotics with the ease of giving vaccines, well i know one is for bacterial and the other for virus, but does that mean/not mean that you can make different decisions...dunno.

Safety...I think this is relatively well sorted from what I've read, and been informed by a few people I know that work in tangential areas of chemistry. My understanding is that there hasn't been a history of a vaccine ending up with long term side effects, side effects present early on, within a few weeks. I understand that the pizer and moderna vaccines are using a novel technique, so maybe historic data can not be extrapolated to those.

Unfortunately, like anything in science, there will always be a body of people (and often times people well respected in their field) that tell you the opposite of what the general community of scientist are tell you, and you can be sure that history will show that sometimes that smaller body was right. But history will also show that a vast majority of time, the main body was right. We are in different times now to, with almost unlimited swaths of money up for grabs for vaccine companies, or associated treatments.

It still comes down to whether you trust those making the decisions to be doing so honourably and with the best public heath at heart, and on good data. Because you and I can do all the reading in the world, but you don't become an expert from googling stuff.

BigBangs, isn' it in part logistics and surity of result ?

To dial in an LFT test into the decision making of getting a booster, you need every person eligible for a booster to take an LFT. So logistically, you don't want people sitting around a vaccination centre waiting 10 mins for a result, so this is something that would be done at home. You can't read an LFT after an hr or so, so the person themselves read the result and make the decision not to get a booster.

The colour line chart is such a complication that they are only advising it for research, so you are back to a simple line/no line. So the question is, is the faintest of faint lines enough to determine a person doesn't need a booster ?

At the moment I don't think any professional body or gov have come out and said you can deduce anything from having an antibody LFT result in a largely vaccinated country. In a largely unvaccinated one, an antibody result means you have antibodies from a previous infection, which there is data now that indicates this is strong protection (although there are the odd reports of people catching covid twice). CK said this very thing in the July RNS, and stated that he did not see big take-up for antibody LFTs in countries that had a good vaccination programme.

Takeiteasy.

"Twatcher, apologies, you're right. They will have been in discussion with companies who produce self test approved tests. The delays must be caused by any number of other reasons, "

Such as ?

"Not true. It is more likely that the reason no test is being manufactured is that 3 months after discussions commenced they can't come to a commercial agreement as the suppliers test has not achieved self-test approval. They may well have come to a commercial agreement pending the tests approval. I think this is likely."

Did you ready the final results RNS ???
"The ability to supply tests that are produced within the UK remains a key priority for DHSC and to that end they have facilitated discussions with other potential partner companies with lateral flow antigen tests that have now been approved by the DHSC and also have self-test approval."

Every manufacturer they have been talking with has a test that is approved.

So what's you reason now ?

Looks like bangang is looking to get in lower, seeding the notion that the gov contract isn't going to happen.

I've said I still think there will be a gov order.

Get your filters ready.

I don't care if it is mud standard and not even 1/2 as good as Innova, just like Innova aren't one bit worried since they got their gazzillions orders of Uk gov, and apparently uk gov wasn't all that concerned either.

ODX is a commercial, listed company, owned by shareholders. A manufacturer that has not announced orders, production, stock or output, is only a virtual manufacturer. Growth in capacity was a fantastic acheivement, but only because the growth was supposed to be underpinned by increasing orders, i.e. the capacity was being full utilised along the way. I'd suggest there is plenty of evidence to conclude that capacity has not been fully utilised since the start of Nov.

They've needed orders all year. For most of that time we've had the happy clappers saying there are NDAs, "3B antibody tests neede", or they are stockpiling, or they are producing 2M a week every week, "the train is leaving" "get on board the rocket", sure how could they not, all those employees, and lets not forget the lorry that dropped of a peice of equipment, that's as good as 2M a week right there.

I think even the most happy of happy clappers are finally coming to the cold realisation that they have been fundamentally producing nothing. All that busy busy busy we have been fed from twitter, that implies production, isn't. You'll note none of the recent RNSs refer to production. Anything of substance has to be RNS-ed. The Twitter account seems to be aimed at those that are reasonably easily strung along. ODX have a history of not backing up twitter hyperbole with reality.

it is correct that the last 2 or 3 times that ODX has commented on the matter the phraseology about waiting for the government to pick a test has disappeared, and now the wording is solely of the type "we are talking with other manufacturers".

given HMG are now on to their 4th different supplier of tests that match the new spec, it seems HMG is quite agnostic as to which test ODX makes, as long as it is compliant. The waiting, based on ODX's own comments, is because they have been unable to come to commercial terms with a supplier of a test. If it was solely because they are waiting for their own test to be approved, and are not in serious discussions, then it would be misinforming the market to suggest they are in serious discussions.

who else would invest in a company that wants to sell antibody tests, and yet believes the amount of antibodies makes no difference to how a person copes with a covid infection.

NOT ONE BIT SURPRISED.

"The booster will most likely make no difference "

Ah Sledgey121, your expertise on this subject matter knows no end. Reminds me of those words your type here which you now hear every virologist repeating:-

"The amount of antibodies makes no difference to how a person copes with covid infection. "
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sledgey121/?page=16

"I can't see it getting big volume acceptance from Jo public, especially as a large number double jab people are in hospital."

The stats show you are 6 times more likely to end up in hospital from covid if you are unvaccinated than vaccinated, but don't let the facts get in the way of a good unfounded baseless rant.

Seldgey121 has a very short memory.

From sledgey121 18th aug

"My first symptoms were 9 days ago and I'm still rough from this, my cough has now tuned into a chest infection. I caught it from a 10 minute car ride with my sister. My wife and son have also tested positive. I'm single jabbed and my wife is double jabbed but its hit us both as hard, presume this is the delta variant. Before I knew I had it, we went out for meals, stayed in a hotel, day tripped to Chester, swimming baths, steam room etc etc, there will be some additional casualties along the way from those trips out."

From sledgey121 today

"Definitely LFT over booster, all day.
I can't see the booster being very popular this winter. Surely nobody wants additional experimental drugs sticking in them."

So you'd prefer people to know they have it and possible get seriously ill from it, than get the booster ? Maybe things would have been worse for you except for that experimental drug you got stuck in you.

LFTs and booster are not mutually exclusive

clearly if every single person was vaccinated, the hospital admittance would be 100% vaccinated people, so as the vaccine rate rises the number of people in hospital that are vaccinated becomes less useful. The better stat is to look at is to compare the % of unvaccinated in the population against the number going into hospital.

In England 89% of the over 16's are fully vaccinated...you can be sure that the subset of over 50s is a lot higher than that, possibly 95%.

So although the over 50s who are unvaccinated account for only 5% of the over 50 population, they account for 29% of over 50s being hospitalised.

lol nitpicking...gawd loves a comedian :)

"Those two contract just got updated today to reflect that the contracts run until 2022."

err that's 31st July 2022

https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000NV9T/ia63fPx5ym_1jdR_4rOe7RwxyFFjrcdqpQPbefcl7hc

Page 56
"The buffer must be pre-aliquoted in individual containers with individual ampules. There is a strong preference to have the buffer contained within the extraction tube (pre-filled) and tohave dropp tops attaches to the vials, as this allows for greater ease of use."

So GAD/ODX did not come up with this just for handiness sake, it is now the strong preference to operate in this fashion.

Page 57 Regulatory checklist
This reads to me now that its aspirational to meet the target product profile, it's not an actual dealing breaking requirement.

Page 58 contains what they expect to see from the usability study, which is relevant to the recent study from the Ulster Uni.

Page 68 and beyond is suggestive that future selected LFDs need to be able to work with the digital reader, that'll be the "magnifeye" device that I picked up on, on the MHRA list, which is uses AI to read the line.

Probably a lot of other useful info in there

Those two contract just got updated today to reflect that the contracts run until 2022.

Those contracts demand capability to supply combined 40M tests per week. Does not of course say they will supply that level, but they can do. Given these are 2nd call-offs, it does open the possibility that there will be further call-offs.

"Twatcher your changing the subject "
The subject is "Mologic FDA approval not far away"

The tweet that it refers to points to a WHO document, which has ZERO to do with the FDA. Its false information on twitter. I see now someone has responded to highlight the the error.