Member Info for TWatcher

Out of interest I had a quick look at the most recent Annual report, but didn't see any details in there on the sharesave scheme. There's been 800K optons exercised this last month between that scheme and employees. That would have been adding into the L&G shares etc to hold back the SP. Assuming there isn't a continual drip of options being exercised (which I wouldn't take as a great signal), hopefully buys will now decreasing'y be filled from new news adding into the pool, and increasingly from the market.

I emailed walbrook advising them that the ODX website was down and asked regarding the Mogolic / ODX TT transfer, and my concern regarding the possibilty that Mologic might defer TT if it suited them commerically. I specifcically asked if there was a defined trigger point in the agreement where Molgic were required to instigate TT.

First, I commend Walbrook for their speed of response and the professional nature of it. The respondent didn't specifically say he'd asked ODX for comment, but the wording suggested to me that he had.

I won't quote the answer verbatim, as I think that's generally bad form unless someone specificially says you can do so in the reply.

The reply did not indicate that there was a defined trigger point for mandatory TT. But it was indicated that a deliberate delay was not seen as a possibility by ODX. They feel they have a really good working relationship with Mologic and they expect that engagement would begin quickly after design freeze. Capacity (or more precisely the predicted required capacity) was viewed as a key determining factor. He thanked me for advising him about the website, which has now been fixed.

So taking that as read, the company just does not see a scenarion where Mologic defer/delay TT. So strike that off :)

going with facts, that's a dangerous ploy you are taking on here.

Omegadiagnostics.com is currently fubar.

safy said:
"TWatcher, i didnt reply to you because im not the only guy who's seen through you and your mate.
1 guy says it, you dismiss it, two and you take notice, 3 or more.... were on to something."

Ah...that's why you didn't reply...its not that...like..you didn't actually have a contrary position...you've "seen through me"

I think you'll find under UK law, 2 or more is a conspiracy.

Got it under the radar.

euphemism ?

ramper :)

I note that Safy has posted twice since on this thread, but hasn't found it important to post any contrary arguments to my posts and my apparent *BS*, just name called and throwing around accusations.

I'm interested in which part of my postings on this thread safy is going to argue is BS.

These are facts as I know them.

1) UK government announces its single biggest mass public covid-19 testing programme since this pandemic started....ODX share price does not react. This suggests the market do not think UK mass antigen testing is price significant to ODX.
2 UK government has said it will use millions of LFT antigen tests by christmas. none of those tests are ODX, some may be Mologic.
3)Boris said manufactured in the UK, but until december at least, non are uk manufactured. They are using chinese tests.
3) Mologic is under control of when it hands the tech over to ODX. If Mologic has unused capacity out of its 40M annual LFT capacity (as confirmed in a recent presentation), from a commerical point of view they may decide they want to max out their own capacity, and if they think UK mass testing is time limited to say 6 months, they may want to maximise their own sales, rather than give sales to another UK manufacturer.
4)ODX CK has said that they hope to have the transfer and 3 trial runs by XMAS, but did suggest that could move to sometime in JAN. He said it, not me.
5)UK government promoted antibody testing and tasked the RTC to develop an antibody test, but UK government actually needs antigen test, as per the announcement today. UK government made another bad misstep. If they had not, ODX would be banging out lft antigen tests, and announcement today would have rocketed the SP.

Thats what I've said on this thread.

"Thats the biggest load of BS i've read on this board in a wrong time. What entry price are you looking at?"

Safy,
If you want to make an argument that is contrary to what I've said, go right ahead. But if you are just going to name call and make baseless accusations, you'd be better of on twitter. I do note that you have a habit of calling posters on here shorters, when they say something you don't agree with. I'm in ODX and making a profit.

Safy, are you saying that the UK government making its most important statement regarding mass public test, having zero impact on the ODX, is what you expected ?Because, thus far, you have said nothing on this thread the subject, but you have cast accusations.

I'm all ears.

While I'm in a p*ssed off mood, I might as well get this out of the way.

If I was mologic, and I have 40M yearly capacity that is not fully in use, and I have a test that the UK gov will take every single one I can make just as soon as I can start making them, and I know that said UK gov demand might be time limited, I think I might not be all that much in a terrible rush to do a tech transfer to a UK manufacturing competitor. Now I'm sure there are contracts and stipulations etc regarding rapidity of tech transfer, but......

It has been my experience that people post "ignore the SP" when it is not going the way they want it to, and never post it when its going the way they want it to.

I therefore general ignore "ignore the SP" posts

Ultimately, if its not ODX, it really doesn't matter where the test is coming from, it's not coming from us. If the figures given in the posts above are accurate, it shows the desperation the uk gov have to get tests, £130M for the tests, £600M to deliver them !

So an announcement of mass UK wide antigen testing by UK gov is not beneficial to ODX, if the current SP reaction is anything to go by. That's very disappointing. What happening to "manufactured in the UK" that was stated just yesterday by Boris. Appears the markets don't believe many will be manufactured in the UK

I note that even with the china food tolerance approval, ODX SP isn't shifting.

You will note that todays announcement of mass UK Gov antigen testing has not moved ODX SP. So it appears the markets in general don't think it's significant to ODX.

So appears Boris wasn't talking out of his A*se when he said testing starting in days and using the army. Livepool "pilot" first city, and according to a report today,

If ODX (or more correctly Mologic) were 2 months ahead of where they are, ODX SP would be ballistic. Gov once again made a big misstep, this time in prioritising UK development of antibody testing over antigen. That is entirely clear, when they are mass deploying antigen testing, but no word on antibody testing.

I note that Mologic was backed by the Gov in its development of the antigen testing, and who knows what promises they made to Gov regarding timeframe, but my feeling is Oxford would have gotten an antigen test out the door by now.

"I hesitate to use the word game-changer because it gets overused, but it is a significant step forward in the testing arena," said Sir John Bell, of Oxford University, who has been advising the government on tests."

"Dependent on their success in Liverpool, we will aim to distribute millions of these new rapid tests between now and Christmas and empower local communities to use them to drive down transmission in their areas."

That's millions of tests, none one of which will be ODX, some *might* be produced by Mologic. ODX will only be in production in Jan. With a vaccine targeted for first quarter, whats the views on where mass antigen testing will be in the uk by the time ODX is in a position to volume manufacture.

This is worth around £8M profit to ODX in 2023, using ODX's own figures from recent presentations. I guess maybe £1.5-2M over the next 12 months.

So it's interesting money, but in the near/medium term ODX is very much a covid testing play, and it's Covid related news that will move the SP significantly.

Thanks for that link, which I had seen earlier but took another look at the video.

Its seems that "next gen combined antibody/antigen" is another test not the one that is currently under validation.
I assume you are extrapolating your design freeze query from the "October 202 acheive CE mark" text, as design freeze isn't mentioned on the slide.

mad thought.

Is it possible that ODX could be upscaling to manufacture one of those chinese tests (saw that speculated on another thread). Any way that dials into the £500K that ODX received in the results.

could be NDA'ed but hard to not RNS something like that.

Probably garbage

He said the above in answer to a question.

In his prepared remarks he said
"This means that, unlike in the spring, it’s possible to keep these institutions open and still stop the spread of the disease. And so over the next few days and weeks, we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests which we will be manufacturing in this country applying them in an ever-growing number of situations, from helping women to have their partners with them in labour wards when they’re giving birth, to testing whole towns and even cities."

....manufacturing in this country...

"Antibody tests will become routinely 'self-test' done at home. It is unlikely that antigen tests will - they will be restricted (in the near to mid term) to supervised use. "

If I get an antibody test, and it proves I have antibodies, could I actually also be asymptomatically infected ?

Antibody tests dont test for T-cells.