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Plenty of places to talk US politics, this is not one of them, and I'm not going to promote your thread by replying on it.

"Eventually it will be purely home test. This government hasnt got the money to keep having centres open and Boris is a true believer in people using common sense."

Like most things, it does come down to money. But given the quite amazing money that gov seems capable of being able to continue to provide to support the economy and covid response, having a swath of test centres in the short-medium term is probably not costly in relative terms, if it helps to achieve the ultimate outcome, which is control covid until vaccination.

I don't understand your point TWatcher?

That's the problem.

Pregancy being a well known notifiable disease

"Exactly the point that I have been wrestling with, is a home use test a good thing? Personally, I would feel much safer if you had to go to an official outlet where you can take the test and this is uploaded to a health passport of some description. I can imagine a black market of people selling their negative tests, causing untold damage."

A home kit is fantastic, but assumes that everyone plays by the rules. When 98+% sensitivity is the benchmark for the test, a 3% fakery problem is more of an issue than the test sensitivity. I know several people who took paracetamol prior to getting on a plane recently "just in case" they might otherwise have had a high temp. I assume I'm not alone in having such anecdotal evidence.

I think Regulator makes a very important point regarding the title of this post, as per his quote below:-

"MHRA may approve a self-use antigen test but only with strict controls. This is because antigen (and molecular) tests are used to test for active infections - and Covid19 is a notifiable disease. It is probable that antigen LFTs will be used primarily as professional POC tests or self-use in test centres, so that positive tests can be recorded correctly and the appropriate PH notifications made."

In other words because a positive test means you have a notifiable disease, its adds a whole other level of complication above simply getting a +ve/-ve result. Its fine when you just think about all the places you can get reasonably fast access to if you are -ve, and it certainly can massively help "open up" the country, but using a totally random figure, what about the 1 in every 100 that are positive ? I'm guessing there is a great argument for regardless of the fact it's notifible, not being rigid in knowing the +ve results, as the massive benefits of opening-up places for the majority that will have a negative result.

But then you have another level of issue of self test. Having a kit that shows a negative is going to be beneficial. So how long do the lines stay on the kit. Whats to stop me (being positive) getting someone else who is negative to do a test and either showing that result to the care home, or registering that on my app. There little point in having a test that has a high degree of specificity and sensitivity, if the mechanics of how its used, and the ability to undermine the integrity of the result makes the accuracy of the test itself redundant.

So even a layman like me can see that allowing carte blanche access to test kits by the person in the street in a non-regulated fashion could potentially lead to more problems than it solves.

"To fly kits from China! would you trust a Chinese kit?"

Did you read the link or just post ?
"Successful validation of an initial range of newly developed Covid-19 lateral flow test kits was completed by the DHSC in September"
"The short lead time between validating new test kits and needing these kits in the UK to support the national response to a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the UK, justifies the use of direct award "

People need to stop posting crap, and actually read the articles. There is no point in falsely trying to trash tests that are going to be used to hopefully save lives. It is a pity for ODX immediate fortunes that Mologic's LFT antigen test isn't ready yet. Mologic should have prioritised antigen. More weirdly, I don't understand the government tasking the RTC to do an LFT antibody test, and not even bother to fund the design of an LFT antigen test ?

The article mentions neither Mologic nor Avacta.

lot of crap been typed this last 18hrs or so. I'm popping this back to the top to remind people what he actually said.

AS usual, Boris crams a whole lot of "testing" speak into about the last 5 mins.
1) Testing at home
2) Testing whole cities
3) Quick testing at certain places, expextant father given as an example
4) Testing being done by the Army.
5) Starting the process in a matter of days
6) Crucially he talked about Testing to see if you are infectious...i.e. antigen testing.

We have to try and take what he says, and how it possibly dials into ODX.

Whatever is starting in a matter of days, we know its not ODX antigen LFT. We were told only a couple of days ago that if everything goes right, ODX might be ready to go just before Xmas, if not, then early next year. So its 2 months before any volume goes out the door from ODX. Don't know what capacity Mologic has to manufacture, but I guess they may be in a position to ramp up by end of Nov. So "matter of days" doesn't apply to them either.

One can only assume something like the abbot test, or one of the tests that uses an on-site machine, is going to be used by the army, or in hospital environment (expectant father) or when testing whole cities. Maybe for work places. They have to use whatever is available if they want to start quick antigen testing now, and the mologic/ODC one doesn't exist except in trial batches and it is still in the validation phase.

No test is approved for home use. So whatever he talked about people testing themselves, there isn't any, unless MHRA approval is going to be bypassed.

With Boris, you can't be sure. Did he feel that he needed to give people hope, and presented "testing" as that hope, and all the places that this rapid testing can happen, without him knowing the details or limitations of implementing what he was saying. The timing is unfortunate for ODX, If he was announcing this mid-Dec, this would be tremedous news for ODX. And clearly there is still a BIG place for ODX. You just worry that whatever antigen test they settle on now, that it becomes harder to displace that once it's being used.

And specifically speaking about the ODX mologic LFT antigen test. When ODX has volume, if can be used in all the places that Boris said. But before it (or any test) can be used at home it needs that damn MHRA. So does ODX have to go thru the same trial process again, similar to what was done at Uni of Ulster, and then submitt to MHRA and wait and wait ? Unfortunately, whereas the antibodt test is a blood prick, the antigen test is saliva. So the process is different, and so the useability needs to be tested again.

Like everything in Covid, a lot of uncertainly, and the path of how things will fall into place is not known. I would still expect ODX to get a boost on Monday from this testing news.

I know I've crammed a lot in here, but those are my initial thoughts after Boris's presentation.

My understanding is that CommonPass trial is still using the abbott test.

Why are you posting this, mologic antigen test being trialled at heathrow is a know fact.

Ck did not mention that now closed trial in the presentation. The report copied over from advfn not only says he did mention it, but recounts that "it is being validated......in Heathrow". Anyone reading the report will think that there is an active trial in Heathrow, and CK said so. Neither of those are true.

I feel it's important not to say the CEO said something, when he did not.

"Taken a hit over capacity, I think we should have been at 200k in Sept, then Oct, and now confirmed for Nov"

The graph in the presentation Has Oct @ 200K, and Nov @300K

"For me the main news is the CE mark of the Mologic test which hopefully should happen early November, its truly Game On from that point. "

The main news for me is that they are definitely planning a ramp up to 800K tests a month by Jan, and have plans for 2M by April. IMO don't have that level of planning without really good vision for orders. Prior to last night, we were unaware of this aggressive rampup.

Also although CKs voiceover talked about possiblity to extend to 2.5M per week, that idea wasn't strong enough for him to include in the chart, so I'm going with the charted 2M a week by April, and working on that capacity.

Guys, there are spectacular opportunities for ODX ahead, but lets not over-egg the already fantastic cake.

Slide 6 of the presentation says 4-6M CD4 tests per year, in 3-5 years time. In april, assuming ODX is close to full capacity, virtually none of that will be CD4, and it'll only creep up to 115K a week (i.e. 6M a year) in 5 years time, so even then it'll be a minor contributor.

I assume the majority the "mix" of ODX output will be RTC antibody and visitect antigen. But we have no idea how much we will get for the antigen test. Also, I assume there is an ongoing royalty to Mologic ?

The key thing for me is that ODX will have capacity builtup to 2M+ my April, that capacity will hopefully be being fully utilised and bringing in really good money. Meanwhile ODX can use those ongoing profits to work on other LFTs such that when Covid requirements reduce, they can use that capacity to sell those higher premimum LFT, making more profit with the same capacity.

In terms of food tolerance China was talked about as being 1M a year in 2023. so as per my previous posting I'd expert no more than say 250K in calendar 2020, at £8 profit (70% of $15), that's the 2M that I spoke about.

The most obvious next driver of the SP is when Finncap comes out with a new report, which should certain include a rerating.

Grrrr. "does NOT"....wish this thing had an edit facility

The above does include profit from becoming an inhouse lab for the Elisa test.

The presentation gave us some decent clues allowing some rough estimations to be made for income and profit.

It has to be remembered that the LFT capacity going forward is being shared across a number of products
RTC antibody test
Visitext antibody test
Antigen test transferred from Mologic
CD4 test
Potentially acting as a sub-supplier for others (AVCTA ?)

So the potential profit from LFT is based on capacity plus the "mix", given that some have higher profit than others.

November 300K a month capacity is already in the bag. As capacity increases, some of it will go towards more profitable products. CD4 is £2 profit a test. We don't know what the profit will be on the LFT antigen test. Not sure if we heard a profit figure for the visitect antibody test, but can guess it's quite a bit more than the RTC test. Although there is an option at some stage to supply RTC test to non-uk (at higher profit), I get the feeling that they think all capacity in the near term for that test will be for UK.
So for the sake of argument, across all LFTs, I'd guess that in Nov profit £1 a test. So £300K profit. By Jan, that might be £1.50 per test. If the 2M a week is actually happening come April, you'd think that would be made up mostly of Antigen and RTC tests. So we might be back down to around £1.30 a test. But thats £2.6M profit a week by April. Eventually some of that capacity will transfer to CD4, which is £2 a test profit. If they can sustain 2M output a week, regardless of makeup, you are looking at £130-£150M profit on tests. Clearly that just sell price - cost of materials etc and there a LOT of other costs to taking into account, but even so.

I haven't even mentioned food intolerance. I think it was about £4M profit in 2020. If they can sell 250K tests in china in the next 12 months (they are talking about 1M by 2023), at £8 profit a test, thats another £2M profit. So say £6M over a year. Next to the potential from LFT, its not much, but they did indicate a lot of room to grow it.

Is any of the above badly wrong ?

"no does any one else and as was explained only RTC is going through MHRA for a self use diagnostic test"

The statement that no one is has approval, nor has approval in process, for a Covid-19 related LFT, was made solely in regards to an antibody test...as far as I remember.