Member Info for TWatcher

"If it mutates are all our tests useless and we would have to start again?"

It has mutated many times, but only recently has there been evidence of mutations (scotland and the danish mink one) that are not killed by the existing antibodies. This implies that current antibody testing would not pick that strain up.

My understanding is that it doesn't impact antigen testing.

His reason for reviewing a chart was a random tweet that said ODX could go to 55p, and another that countered it and said it would go £1.55+.

Typically for a chartist, he agreed with both positions !

"It would be interesting to understand why ODX didnt go full force with antigen testing first rather than focusing on antibody testing? Surely higher revenues with antigen tests?"

ODX is developing neither. In terms of covid testing, it is acting purely as a manufacturer.

What is patently clear, is a point I made a while back, the UK gov once again totally screwed up. they formed a rapid test consortium to focus on development of an antibody test. And yet what the gov actually needs, as proven by all these interim contracts going out, is rapid antigen testing.

I would have thought that it was pretty basic commonsense that you need a test to detect actual sick people, before you need a test to detect people who have been sick. Its the ones that are currently sick that you are trying to stop jamming the NHS up...and dying.

"Twatcher, the £912m contract is specifically for lateral flow antigen tests. Nothing to do with antibody tests."

Thanks, I see antigen mentioned in the body of the tender, had missed that.

That paper does give me some concern. If I read that correctly, it indicates that the strain they identified in scotland was immune to all the existing antibodies. That means the body would not generate the antibodies currently detected by covid antibody tests, including the RTC test.

Of more wider implication, it means that the vaccines that are currently furthest in development which learn the body the mechanism to generate antibodies, would not be learning the body the antibodies to be effective against this strain.

This is a preprint, which means it's not peer reviewed, but scientist working in this field are currently getting work out as quick possible to further knowledge of covid.

Would appreciate review by someone that has some knowledge of this area.

Interesting that the delivery commences 8th of Dec, that would be roughly in line of when mologic has indicated it would be in a position to ship its antigen test.

If this was antibody testing, Is there a reason why UK gov would put this out for tender ? Surely they are entitled to just go and select the one they have paid to developed, and have already ordered the 1st 1M.

That's the one I was talking about on Friday, that was due to list today.
https://health-family-contract-search.secure.force.com/ProSpend__CS_ContractPage?SearchType=projects&uid=a074J000007FOsCQAW&searchStr=&sortStr=Recently+Published&page=1&filters=

and now listed
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W46/738590726

Nearly £912M to be delivered by Mar 2021.
@ If that was RTC, @ £2 a test, that would be over 460M tests. The consortium doesn't have the capability for that volume.

But given this is the "test and trace" program, does that suggest this is LT antigen testing.
If so ODX will only be ramping up in Jan, Mologic in Dec, and again neither can generate anything like that volume, even allowing for the antigen test to be more expensive.

Tendering closes the end of this week.

interesting times

THe one I refer to, is an upcoming tender, which only goes live on 9th Nov (monday).

Not sure people appreciated the potential of what the OP on this thread as saying.
I'll include a direct link, in case that makes it more transparent.

https://health-family-contract-search.secure.force.com/ProSpend__CS_ContractPage?SearchType=projects&uid=a074J000007FOsCQAW&searchStr=&sortStr=Recently+Published&page=1&filters=

Looks like "bidding" opens on monday.

ffs

If its a lateral flow antigen test, then it might well use saliva, when can be collected by swabbing.

As per the previous poster, bidding opens on the 9th. That might suggest it should appear on the bidstat website on Mon.

good spot.
"DHSC is looking to procure a fixed volume based Covid-19 Lateral Flow Technology Testing Solutions, consumables and related services on behalf of the Test and Trace Programme."

"215k would be an underwhelming moonshot program.... but it just might match the weekly capacity of the UK RTC."

£550M for the logistics of delivering 78M tests. (thats assume a 7 day week). That's £7 for the logistics around delivering a £2 test. Maybe we need to be in the delivery game :)

I note there is also an award of a £496M contract to Innova
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738394166

Thats obviously not for home testing, but the contracts/tenders are starting to flow out.

The contract duration is going to be 12 months plus an optional 12-months extension, with an indicative value of GBP 550 million for the initial contract period. The volume is anticipated to be approximately 215 000 test kits a day
approx 78M kits over the first 12 months.

It's worth pointing out this is not a 'home test kit' in the broader sense that is being used in relation to the UK-RTC LFT.

I did point that out.
"Now it is at home use, but you still have to send the blood sample back to get your results. So not at all the same as what ODX are making."

Got a advert for covid testing while browsing( probably targeted based on my browsing cookies). It was for the roche test
https://www.testingforall.org/product/covid-19-home-antibody-test/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIt5b7ut_t7AIV_tERCB0APQCyEAEYASAAEgLte_D_BwE

Its an antibody test.

Interesting thing is the FAQ says that they supply 3 lancets, that the test requires around around 10-20 drops a blood and about 10% of people will not be able to get the required blood, and they'll give a refund of the £39 if you can't.

Had not considered that type of failure rate.

Also the FAQ makes a thing out of them being the first at home test that has post June 2020 MHRA. Now it is at home use, but you still have to send the blood sample back to get your results. So not at all the same as what ODX are making.

I'm guessing there blood sample failure rate is so high because they need more blood as it has to be shipped back and any less blood is will coagulate.

I hope that conclusion is right, but has not been concluded. I want a lot of antibody testing to happen before that conclusion is reached. !

Assuming there isn't a continual drip of options being exercised (which I wouldn't take as a great signal), hopefully buys will now decreasingly be filled from new shares adding into the pool, and increasingly from the market.

I need to remember to read back BEFORE I hit "post message"