We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I'm not insane enough to try and predict a closing price BUT it would be good to cross 18.81p as, according to British Bulls, that is the price where they will switch from short to buy and confirm the Bullish Morning Star pattern (which basically marks the end of the downtrend).
All eyes on 18.81p for me - doesn't have to be at close - any time will do!
@broomtree - I agree that it would be nice to see us shooting up on such a positive day - I guess the only thing to mitigate the situation is that, I think, 18p is major resistance ... Also the traders are probably still on holiday and the market still seem to have their knee of this shares throat.
On another positive we are 1.99% up against a FTSE rise of 1.41% ... Although overall disappointing and I think it's going to be a slow recovery from here!
@NewChapter - I think your logic is sound. Schroders holding such a large stake, at such a higher level, should protect us from low ball PE offers.
I'm over £50k down at the moment - but not worried because I'm not selling and I don't need the money for a while (probably just as well😁).
What I can say is that this share can move (in both directions) very quickly but I firmly believe the underlying business is now sound thanks partly to JL (who often gets a good kicking on this forum) and partly to those investors who save the company a few years ago by subscribing to the RI.
Evil Knieval - The Master Investor - has been sweet on Capita for some years (he was screaming how 40p was a bargain entry point back in 2020) - and the business is in much better shape than then.
Just hold onto your Capita shares - ignore any paper loss - I honestly can't see this going bust (else I would have sold by now) - all will come very good in the end!
@NewChapter - it's not a problem (Schroders holding out for 60p because this business is worth a lot more than that but the market doesn't currently agree).
However PE aren't going to be tabling a cheeky 40p offer (because the share price is currently depressed) with the knowledge that it's never going to be accepted by Schroders (being the majority holder).
I'm so underwater here I would love for this to be taken out by PE or Serco or anyone who sees value .....but I just don't see it happening for less than 60p
@Billybob15 - I think this has fallen too far and too quickly but the problem is that Schroder (with a 19% holding) bought in at around 46p so they aren't going to let this go for anything less than 60p ....
So even though 17.59p might look attractive - the 60p needed to close the deal and persuade Schroders looks a lot less attractive.
The CVC takeover was a false rumour that occurred in September 2020. CVC were interested in possibly bidding for certain divisions of Capita (ESS from memory) but were never interested in buying the whole company.
An RNS was issued in September 2020 to quash the CVC bid rumour.
@Culley01 - I found that following piece written by Evil Knieval in his Evil diaries a couple of weeks ago - I don't know if you've already seen it.
"Capita (CPI) reported last week and duly fell 20%. And then over the weekend the SunTel reported a claim by a buyer of a CPI business that the licences required and warranted by CPI were unsound. This is a pity since I keep on expecting CPI to leap clear and show a clean pair of heels. It does not."
I'd also add that British Bulls are now predicting a possible Bullish Morning star marking the end to the downtrend - so perhaps things are about to turn!
At least tomorrow won't be another down day as the market is closed 😁😁😁
Ha - reviewing that article made me chuckle again.
I think the executive summary was that JL joined an absolute 'basket case' of a company at the beginning that was heading the same was as Carillon (to the knackers yard).
However - at the cost of a shareholder bailout (via the rights issue) - he did actually save and streamline the company into something that now looks to be a going / sustainable company again.
His comments about getting the SP back to the pre rights issue price of 97p "in a year or two* made me smile as that was one of the reasons that I, at the moment, foolishly increased my long term capita holdings.
I think JL would want to retire with the acknowledgement that he had saved the company and the turn around was beginning to show fruit so I am quietly optimistic for the March FY update now.
However - I'm not brave enough to add any more shares at these levels .... I guess I'm an exhausted buyer, down a very dark well at the moment, hoping we rally back into the 20s as quickly as we plummeted into the teens!
We should be grateful for small mercy's - for all those that are scared witless about how Capita might be fined after it's minor cyber attack - take a read at this.
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/hosting-firm-says-it-lost-all-customer-data-after-ransomware-attack/
Now that's what I call a cyber attack!
@Capitalizer - yes I totally agree with you - drop isn't to do with the cyber incident - it's debt and profit related.
In which case we should be near the bottom now as this sell off has been over done imo
@Viewing - well you shouldn't be terrified - Capita absolutely had cyber insurance (as reported by The Insurer - see my link below) and the purpose of cyber insurance is to protect the business against class action (amongst other things)
@Xenor - what we need is positive news to stop the rot.
This could be director purchases (don't hold your breath), half billion pound framework signed, ICO confirm minimal or no fine for hacking incident, large II buying into Capita, other new contract wins (and for the desperate to exit) or a takeover approach (about as likely as a director buying shares).
For what it's worth - I don't see 15p either but then I thought the rot would have stopped at 18p - and perhaps it will stop at around this level.
This isn't going bust - in a business sale we have some profitable contracts and assets to sell - and 17p / 18p bottom feels right for now!
I guess my forecast is as good as the next man's - it just felt that closing under 18p was the sign of capitulation and from here we start going back up (albeit slowly without news)
@JG68 - yes as you say - its not specifically stated in the results (that they are claiming on their cyber insurance) so it was heartening to find The Insurer link which confirms they are making a cyber insurance claim.
I agree the insurance won't cover any fine (I don't believe there will be one but if I'm wrong it's only going to be minimal) nor will the insurance cover the costs to repair the damage (which is why we are in a £25 million hole).
So - for me - the hack is a non issue - and shouldn't impact capita (give or take £25m) - so the downtrend is debt and free cash flow and possibly change of CEO related (uncertainty around future strategy) and not the hack!
Oh and here is the link re: Capita Cyber Insurance
https://www.theinsurer.com/news/capita-confirms-cyber-insurance-claim-increases-own-net-loss-estimate-to-25mn-following-q1-incide/
Regarding fines - as posted previously - I think Capita have handled this professionally reporting the hack to the ICO immediately and then spending £ms investigating and fixing the issues.
UNLIKE the electoral commission that for hacked in 2021 / 2022 and only recently fessed up to the issue....
So I would suggest the electrical commission is a lot more likely to be fined than Capita.
Of course reality doesn't mean that the MMs won't use this to batter the share price - but I think investors need to take some perspective on this!
@IanB - but Capita reported they will using their Cyber insurance to cover any claims made against them from the hack - that's what cyber insurance is for and that's why Capita took it out in the first place.
They reported they are spending upto £25 million to further bolster security and investigate what happened and the Cyber Insurance will cover the rest .
I honestly believe that this fall is NOT related to the hack because, if it was, it would have dived to these depths on announcement of the hack back in early April.
Whatever is driving this lower is not because of the fear of being sued by no win no fee lawyers - that's all covered by Cyber insurance!
@aim - 20p is the new 30p was in a post (replying to something I had written).
I actually don't subscribe to 20p is the new 30p - this is being relentlessly driven down at the moment and, at some point, it will bottom and then the recovery begins.
Once we start recovery this should easily push back through 20p and head to 30p and beyond but at the moment the MM have got their knee on its throat.
Until the knee is removed - we will continue down.
The problem is though that the 20p brigade sold at 19p for a loss, the 19p brigade sold at 18p for a loss, and it's looking like it will be turn of the 18p brigade soon!
@TerryM1 - of course the latest HY results could have kitchen sinked all the bad news (hopefully) so that FY will surprise the market and allow JL to exit into the sunset as a hero 😁
Ha .... I'm probably dreaming - but I can only see positives moving forward and, anyway, I'm in sucha hole here that I can no longer see daylight😁
@TerryM1 - I agree he doesn't get a lot of respect from shareholders (and even less respect from you 😁) but it's still important we retain continuity with Government to ensure that the (admittedly paltry) remaining shareholder value isn't destroyed.
In any case - it would be very odd for a CEO to retire without some form of handover (however much we would all like to see him disappear into the sunset)
I think there is going to be a period of handover .... And that probably isn't a bad thing although I know that a lot on this forum (and elsewhere) want to see the back of JL ...
BUT .... Capita win a huge amount of business from government and, as mentioned by Helen Parris when I wrote to her, JL is highly respected by the Cabinet Office.
I agree a change of strategy / name is going to be welcomed but it's also important not to shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs (Government) whilst rushing for business innovation and transformation.
If JL staying for a 12 month handover is what is needed to calm Government (and leverage that half billion pound new framework that is due to be formally signed with Government in H2) - then I don't begrudge him 12 months more lay before his pension kicks in.
Government contracts are hard to win but - SHOULD BE - profitable for long periods of time (once secured).
Just saying .....