Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
@IanB
Yes - sorry - as you say it was a typo which I misread.
I agree that CPI has been pretty poorly run in the past and it very nearly caused the business to fail (like Carillion).
But that was then and this is now!
Unlike the majority of people of this board - I think JL has done a reasonable job and saving a complete pig's ear of a mess that he inherited. I acknowledge that all those who subscribed to the RI (TerryM among others) provided the working capital to save the company.
But JL has reduced debt and the company seem to be on a solid path to growth, profitably and dividends and this is underlined by the (historically very careful - short arms, deep pockets) CFO purchasing recently.
Maybe we won't get an immediate upwards jump (like we did in March) but I do think this has recovered and not even the gloomiest of posters on here talk of CPI going bust.
This is a great opportunity to buy into the, little appreciated JL, turn around at a bargain price.
@IanB
"It hasn't been 50p for 3 years"
That's simply not true - it was 50p in August 2021 and even touched 55p during the September of that year.
"Serco has FCF of about £97m but CPI made a loss"
Well - without exceptional items (such as repaying furlough cash, making pension contributions, sorting out the hack and writing off good will) - all of which the market knew about (but then suddenly forgot) - we would have reported a £33m FCF on sales. So we would have been about a third of the Serco profit.
I know we overspent a further £7m (which the market wasn't expecting) so - if we deduct that from the £33m profit then we would have returned a profit of £26m which is about 25% or Sercos profit.
Based on the above - we should be trading at between 37.5p (25% of Serco share price) and 50p at the moment
I'm not expecting 60p before August 2024 - but I'm expecting 35p much sooner
@sharehead
I hope you are right (that we get a rebound into the 20s) as I've got a stonking paper loss here at the moment but I don't need the money until December 2025 .... so time is on my side and CPI was never a share to rush😁
@sharehead
Yes - I agree - this could move quickly but only when we get some solid news (perhaps Adolfo joining, or ICO confirming no fine after the hack or major contract wins or takeover haha)
In reality though - without news - we may well be in limbo until at least the trading update on 8/12 and if that doesn't work then the update in March 2024.
Something has got to encourage the MM to take their foot of this shares throat and let it recover to a more sensible level.
@bubbles
Well - if you are a CPI ramper ... it worked .... I've just added some more bring my holding up to a round 600,000 shares!
Your post is sensible although I think 30p by Xmas might be overly optimistic ....
I don't think there is anything fundamentally wrong with the business now though and I remembered what Buffet said about being greedy whilst others are fearful ....
I feel this is the moment to be greedy!
We need more positive news for this to start moving back upwards.
At the moment the shorters are still controlling this either waiting for more bad news or the wider market to fall (and take CPI with it)
The CFO purchase has put a floor under the share for the time being but we aren't out of the woods yet although...
BritishBulls did switch to BUY recommendation yesterday (so the tea leaves are showing some optimism too) 😁
@loiterer
JL being removed early with no golden handshake - it's just not going to happen!
I think, internally, they all think that JL has done a good job (of saving the company) and it's just us long suffering shareholders who are disillusioned with his lacklustre performance.
I think JL will be lingering here (collecting his salary and waiting for his handshake) for some time yet!
@gotoutjustintime
Aldolfo won't become a company director until he takes up his new CEO position (some time during Q4) - so until then any purchase is going to be under the radar.
The person we REALLY need buying right now is JL .... I haven't given up hope that he will come good in the end because if the CFO sees value then JL must see the value too (and usually listen to their CFOs on these kind of matters)
It wouldn't surprise me to see an RNS stating Adolfo has started ... Then shortly after an RNS to confirm he's bought a million or two shares ...
@Scaredycat
I totally agree with what you say and I, too, was relieved when the CFO decided to buy shares (announced via RNS today).
I can think of noone better placed (than the CFO) to understand the commercial viability of CPI.
His purchase sort of confirms what we already assumed - this is NOT the best Carillion and it WON'T be going bust anytime soon.
The CFO purchase confirms ongoing business viability and, by extension, profitability.
The share price may still be falling (for now) but soon it's going to turn (probably when our seller is exhausted)
@NoFear
Could really do with a million share purchase by JL now to set this motoring upwards
It's nice the CFO is now seeing value but it would be nicer if the CEO followed suit now.
I'm not convinced our seller has finished selling yet - which isn't helping matters - and maybe JL is waiting for the seller to finish ...
Or maybe JL only takes FREE CPI shares!
.... well what happened yesterday ?
1. AimMaster finally bought some CPI stock
2. Around 1% of CPI stock was traded.
3. SP bounced strongly off 16.25p giving hope that the bottom had finally been found.
4. TerryM1 wrote a series of posts (almost as long as War and Peace) detailing his CPI journey.
5. I topped up at 16.69p and am already losing money on my latest top up! 😁
6. Beachfeont may have sold 20% of his holding to cut his losses (or was that the day before)?
I've decided to add more and think 16.6 is too low (but then I thought that at 17.6, 18.6, 19.6 and even 20.6 😁)
There must be a large seller in the background and that's why MW started shorting (because they knew this) ...
Just got to sit tight now as, surely, the seller is going to be exhausted soon ...... And THEN ..... I'd like to see a few director buys too .... But that's pointless until the seller has gone
@Beachfeont
You just know that, now you have reduced, this is going to storm forward (like RR did).
I wish you luck but I can't see the point of crystallizing losses at 16.7p (unless you need the money).
The time to take the loss was 20p but hindsight is a wonderful thing that only AimMaster possesses 😁
@JG68
KPIs are really important though as the Capita Customer Base (ie: mainly the Government) will measure the effectiveness of the Capita service delivery (using KPIs) and this will, in turn, aid the decision to renew or cancel future contracts .
I think, as long as Capita don't go bust AND Adolfo doesn't decide on a new rights issue, we should be OK here and just patience is required.
On 5th June this traded as high as 35p and I don't really see much change in business metrics since then. So, if you don't need the money then it's probably worth ignoring the SP for the time being.
Are we going bust? Well with cost cutting underway, low / no debt, £3billion plus Government contracts in the bag - this can't be another Carillion.
What about a right issue? Well, I guess that's a painful possibility but I don't see why we would need new rights whilst we have zero debt.
So - I'm showing enormous paper loss at the moment but I think back to 888 when it doubled in a week or two and then went on to grow by another 25% shortly afterward ...
I'm think the same will happen here ....
@JG68
I'm hoping the reason they haven't bought is because they are working on something that is share price sensitive in the background ...
I FEAR however that your analysis of the situation is probably the correct version.
Very disappointing not to see any director purchases here!
@passingthru - nice of you to drop by again ... I think the last time you passed through was when you purchased CPI (in September 2020) at 33p at around the time that there was a false rumour that CPI was about to be taken over and an RNS was issued to clarify the situation.
Anyhow - back in September 2020 - CPI was burdened with huge debt, low profitability, lots of disparate businesses and we were in the middle of COVID .....
YET .... you still saw value at almost double the current SP.
Now - we are leaner, meaner, almost debt free, profitable and with a growing pipeline (and COVID seems long forgotten)....
You saw value @ 33p in 2020 but don't see value in 2023 @ 17.8p ..... That doesn't make sense to me!