Member Info for Trenners

@adam - I think there has been a lot of frustration with the relatively poor results from last week and we have been overly punished.

We should not be back at £2.60 - I think the initial market reaction of £3 was probably fair (based on what we heard) then the shorters took hold.

I've added at these levels having sold half my holding on the way down from £3 to here so, currently, I am sitting pretty and have immense faith in this business HOWEVER AH has got to start delivering shareholder value otherwise we are all going to tire of his "jam tomorrow" promised - very much like we tired of JL

I know the company mission is to fix the CS pension debacle and then they need to SMOOTHLY take over the CS payroll (and that's not a given btw) and they need to cut the call centres free ....

THEN ...all those costs need to wash through the system ... So it's looking like 2027 / 2028 / 2029? here now and THAT'S the reason for the sell off.

For longer term investors like Staveley and Royal London and I guess Schroders for that matter - everything is fine - for the rest of us - maybe less so!

@YTeeBack - Ha we've been saying that since COVID!

Firmly in the grip of the market makers and the shorters at the moment and they have their foot firmly on its throat.

Every time it tries to get up off the canvas and rise beyond £2.60 - they apply a bit more pressure.

£2.55 support has held well so far (as well it should when you consider the progress this company has made) - one this is for sure - when they take their foot off the throat - this will shoot up again...

It's not IF it rises - it's WHEN. Too many smart people have got too much money invested here for it to stay at these levels for too long!

I totally agree - sit tight - this might drop lower in the short term but it's going to rebound strongly again (like it always does) on any news or any progress with the Civil Service Pension or even the commencement of the CS payroll contract.

Nice to see the chuckle brothers have stopped posting too - that probably means the only way is UP

I was advocating caution here (about a week or so ago) and I was really aggressively shot down and called insults in the process. We were at £4.50 when I made my "tread with care" post ...

Clearly my warning was both well meaning and correct ...

I know Housebuilders are out of fashion right now but the likes of TW have stabilised whereas we keep falling even though the chair has bought a shed load of shares.

Something doesn't feel right here

I know fortune favours the brave etc but this should have settled by now and it hasn't so WHY IS THAT?

@aim - I've just taken my binoculars out and can see you waving on Platform 2.25 😀 The train was heading in your direction but it now looks to have taken a turn and is moving away again ...

I'm very surprised you weren't tempted by the £2.55/£2.95 swing trade this morning though as it looked right up your alley

@cabbage - back to posting your nonsense again (having had a rare lucid and sane moment last week).

Richard Staveley invests in undervalued companies with a THREE to FIVE year time frame and he's looking to double his money or better during that period.

So Staveley bought in June 2024 (from memory) so his time frame is anytime upto June 2029.

I've never heard Staveley hype anything - when results are bad (like they've been bad here) - he's admitted as much - and even in his most recent interview he mentions the problems that Capita are having with the Civil Service Pension.

Staveley is astute and patient - I am patient - you are neither astute or patient - in fact I fear you may be schizophrenic - having written objective about Capita on Friday compared to the drivel you are writing again this morning!

@Maxjh - great summary which encapsulates the current position very well ....

I'm still well invested here (I actually bought some share back late on Friday afternoon) and will be adding some more back this week on any weakness from here.

I think we are going to see lots of volatily here until we get more news over the next few months but I do think the synergy contract win has been key and assuming we have on to it and don't make a mess of things - we are well positioned.

However it's still a jam tomorrow story at the moment so I'm not expecting the dizzy heights of £4 any time soon!

@jordi - even in the best of times BPOs have a huge amount of upfront costs to bring new customers 'on board' and - especially the large contracts like Synergy - don't become profitable for a few years.

The pension debacle has further exacerbated this delayed profit problem and there is every risk that the salary contract could do the same.

That explains the poor guidance moving through 2026 as the snake (Capita) tries to devour the bison (Civil Service Pension / Salary contract) - but over time these contracts should move to profitability - but by that time, of course, the snake will be trying to devour a different beast.

For me - the AI Catalyst was supposed to cut down on these huge upfront onboarding costs by using a solution led "cookie cutter" approach - so new customer became profitable from almost day 1.

I do think / hope / prey a considerable slice of the £19bn pipeline are AI stack customers that will be smaller in size (than synergy) but instantly more profitable.

Executive summary - winning a massive BPO contract will underpin the company in the future (and probably increase company overall value) but it's a bit of a problem short term and I think that's where we are today!

Will AH succeed - I'm convinced he will but probably not in the time frames we first thought - 2028 / 2029 for me now (if I'm still alive) 😁

@sunlit - the unqualified pipeline is simply showing the size of OPPORTUNITY - no where does it suggest that the company expects to win any specific percentage of that unqualified pipeline.

As an ex sales director - I would expect to win somewhere between 10% and 20% of an unqualified pipeline - so we should be seeing a minimum of £1.9bn worth of business as the sales process progresses through the pipe.

So - if we close 10% we double the company revenue at margins of between 6% - 8% plus ....

@heat - I can't disagree - Cabinet Office are very grateful for Capita covering their previous mismanagement of MYCSP and sorting everything out ...

I'm sure the reward is the Synergy contract - a way of the Cabinet Office saying thank you - but it's possible we will lose even more money when we take over payroll ... so then we would have won 2 massive loss making contracts that don't generate us profit for a year or two ....

Meaning we _might_ have been in a better place if we hadn't won Synergy (as the total mess could well be a nail in our own coffin as we struggle for years to make these services run smoothly for minimal / no reward).

Busy fools have lots of revenue and no profit and Capita has been like that - for a huge number of reasons - since 2017 when they last paid a dividend!

Anyway I'm still heavily invested but all this has been a wake up call for me!

@Jordi - but the £5m setup payment for the CSPS contract - spread over 7 years - is going to leave a massive hole in the 2026 cash flow and profit because our costs to fix this debacle must be immense - not least because we are failing to hit any SLA and are possibly working for nothing (who knows) and may be fined as well!

That's the pension contract I refer to - the one that is sucking all the 2026 profit out of the company to fix a problem that was not of our making and is appreciated by noone (other than those trying to cover their backside for mismanaging the previous MYCSP contract).

Not only that - but I hear we took control of the pension scheme early (in November) as if we hadn't then the pensions wouldn't have been paid.

Is anyone grateful? Cabinet Office - YES - Rest of the World - NO

@heat - I totally agree that all we can do now is get it fixed and it's nice to hear that AH has set it as a company mission.

The only way to get away from the Ian Hislop quips is to rebrand but I understand that is not a cheap exercise AND if the end game is to get bought then it could be argued that rebranding would be an expensive distraction.

All the same - horrible to see people working so hard getting kicked by MPs and Unions and Civil Servants alike

@heat - yes I think the Synergy business is pretty much in the bag but we've had to sacrifice a 20%+ drop in SP price and flat FCF for 2026 and a bunch of downgrades too.

I know we can just block out all the noise - but it's hard to be invested in a company that is so hated - especially when you can see management and employees working so so hard to deliver for their customers!

@jordi - all FCF eaten up to fix a pension fund for a bunch of ungrateful and highly unionised civil servants.

We have a company mission to squander all the FCF fixing the pension issues we inherited - and all we will get as thanks are letters to MPs demanding the pension and salary contacts are taken away from Capita AND some ambulance chasing no win no fee lawyers trying to sue Capita for compensation because of delayed pension payments.

Unbelievable if it wasn't 100% true!

@cabbage - that might be the most sensible post you've ever written here - can't disagree with any of it - I can also see us floating around in that sort of range for a few weeks now (unless we get any more major contract wins)

@adam - I think Capita will fix the pension debacle (probably sometime around mid/late summer) and that will cause ALL of the 2026 free cash flow to be wiped out due to what it's costing them to fix problems caused by the union strike (which created the backlog) and MYCSP incompetence.

But - as you can see from the Instagram I posted on the other thread - Capita will remain unforgiven by the civil servants and the unions (even though they don't need forgiveness as they didn't cause any of this).

It's just another set back for us and a set back that's fixing a problem for such ungrateful recently retired civil servants

If you think that's bad - and you've got a strong stomach - you should watch this:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVjju-qDi2l/

And Civil Servants are being encouraged to write to their MPs and also consider instructing a no win no fee solicitor!

@heat -;I couldn't agree more - another 2.5% for Oasis can only be good news but it also possibly explains the dead cat bounce yesterday as the market is so far unmoved by the RNS today!

Oasis certainly aren't passive though so I expect the management team will be feeling the heat from them - and Staveley for that matter - they just need to deliver !

Oasis up to over 14.5% of Capita but of course it's not an actual holding it's more a gamble using a financial instrument - all the same - 14.5% is 14.5% - but if it had been in real shares then the free float would have vanished and the shorters would be squeezed and we would be at £6 by now or even higher!

@dreams - and i still stand by that post (which you cut and pasted) and is the primary reason i'm still holding a million shares (old money).

i had not fully appreciated though - until the civil service forum - how despised we were and i know we do lots of unsexy things but that is not excuse for downright hatred.

south west water process a lot of sewage but they aren't hated (as that's a pretty unsexy business too) - so i think it goes deeper than that.

it's very probably that capita were crap in the past (the civil service guys said as much on their forum in that they ****ed the pension up the last time they managed it - which is why it was handed to mycsp - and now the corrupt cabinet office have given it back to then again and it's still crap).

so we are not only being punished for current mistakes but we remain unforgiven for the past.

ah and his team are smart cookies and the business they are building is fleet of foot - but you should not underestimate the baggage we are carrying ....

i'm still positive here - otherwise i would have sold out completely like @capitalizer - but i am a lot more realistic now than i was even a week ago.

hence why i sold half yesterday!