Member Info for Trenners

Those who have been trading the £3.80 - £3.96 range have been doing well here recently (me included) but the closer we get to results the more likely that we will quickly break over £3.96 (and never return to £3.80 again).

I've made a few free shares trading that range but I'm sitting tight now as I'm certain a break up is imminent after Monday's very bullish rise

Staverly is passionate about RM and he's mega positive about their potential in both the.podcast I posted and also the Vox Markets YouTube interview back in October 2024.

I've bought a few thousand as a punt - I think Staverly is super smart (and a lot smarter than me) so I'm comfortable putting a few thousand in to RM based on his passion

@Simpiles Thanks for the background on RM - it looks like they've got a lot of Government contracts and also have a sticky online learning portal (which most excited Staverly)

I've bought a few thousand and I'll buy a few thousand more over the coming weeks - the issues that Staverly described seemed similar to Capita but they seem pretty confident they can all be fixed (and value unlocked) to take 16% of the entire company!

Ha I bought Filtronic on Staverly recommendation at £1.30 and foolishly took my profit at £1.50 - ha nearly £2 as we speak!

@Trisor - I was also taken by how passionately Richard spoke about a company called RM (at about 24 minutes in the recording) - and they've bought 16% of the company - and it sounds like another Capita type turn around story.

I was so impressed I bought a few RM shares and I think I'm going to slowly add over the coming months - Staverly was mega bullish on it.

I don't think this has been posted here before - Richard Staverly did a podcast last year about Rockwood Investment strategy and he talks a little bit about the opportunity for Capita at about 26 minutes in.

Certainly worth a listen.

https://share.google/pcepLHUZZrkBJ7ZJQ

@Marcus - last time we were in the FTSE 250 we were around 30p - 33p (old money) so we are looking at around £4.50 to gain entry this time around.

Having said that - I don't think we saw a lot of benefit being promoted last time - certainly the share didn't survive very long in the 250 as I think we went up in May 2023 and we were kicked out by the September!

Maybe it will be different this time ... But I think I said that last time 😄

A thing to remember - for everyone who is topping up at these levels - we are buying shares at a 20p discount to Royal London (who took 5% of the company at £3.95 back in December locked away for 5 years).

Absolute bargain for a medium term hold!

@Marcus - also a great opportunity to top up sub 26p (old money) - how it's still this level is a complete mystery to me as the recovery green shoots are clearly showing here now.

Someone posted the last dividend was 11p (x 15 to convert to new money) - £1.65 - and that was in 2017 ....

Hands up who would like a £1.65 dividend again - ha - that was quick - never say never - with the small number of shares in circulation and the large revenues and forecast FCF - this could happen again!

@stumpy - thanks for the support - maybe £1.50 / £1.60 was a bit extreme at this point in the cycle - but I agree this is definitely going sub £2 again

@swingman - it looks like i touched a nerve!

this sp is up and down (more than *****s draws) because the bad news keeps rolling - you can delude yourself (like i did) that it will come good in the end but it certainly is not good news that existing customers are throwing in the towel.

i lost a packet both here and at thg because i believed the underlying technology was special - and it turned out it wasn't all that special after all.

i would expect this to continue to fall for a bit now and - before anyone says i'm a shorter ,- i'm not - i'm someone who has already lost a load of money on this dodgy share.

@daltry - I think you should really wait for the results in early March before making this wildly negative comments.

From what we know - we are on track for FCF and we are winning lower value - higher margin deals from the new AI led product stack (Kent Council being just one example) and we are renewing existing business (BBC only this week).

I know you lost faith in this at £2.70 - don't make the same mistake again as these will be £5 plus in the blink of an eye and even more if the DIVIDEND word is mentioned at results.

This is beginning to look like THG - huge valuation during COVID and a complete destruction of shareholder value since

THG had some clever warehouse technology (as well as beauty and protein businesses) but the high stock valuation was always attributed to the technology.

The thing is that there don't seem to be any post COVID customers for their technology (at THG or OCDO) and so the share price continues to go down and down and down.

Someone was asking where the bottom is - well I would certainly be looking at £1.50 / £1.60 on this cycle BUT if it's like THG - it will just keep falling from there ....

I'm out - having lost money at THG and OCDO - I rate the technology but I have HUGE concerns that customers don't want it or don't need it!

I've filtered the resident traitors now - hopefully they will stop post rubbish is we all ignore them!

@culley - and talk of dividend here would set the SP alight and if we are truly going achieve 6% margin on £2bn revenue creating £120million profit - then I would hope for a 10p or even 15p dividend on those numbers costing between £12m and £18m.

At the end of the day - it doesn't matter how much dividend is declared - as a dividend will signal the turn around is complete and that should be enough to send this rapidly upwards

The nature of the deals being won Capita under AH are - by there very nature - going to be much smaller revenue but much higher margin.

Historically (under JL) Capita would win and RNS high value (low margin) outsourcing deals worth hundreds of millions of pounds (and requiring capital investment by Capita to generate low profit).

Now we are winning lower value deals that are too small to RNS but require hardly any capital investment as the solutions being sold have already been implemented within Capita (referred to as Customer 0 in company presentations) and are of very high profitability.

Everything has changed here - and those who can see that and buy into that narrative are going to see massive rewards and the others will still be sat on platform £2.25

@daltry said he had sold out of CPI at £2.70 as life was too short to wait for capita to come good and he stuck all his money in CDL at about 0.5 or so

@aim @sunlit - what total twaddle you write!

£16billion unweighted pipeline should lead to around £2.4bn (15% assume win ratio) of new business - so the company will DOUBLE in size!

AI strategy is, of course, working and has been a contributing factor to the £250m cost cutting program that Capita have delivered on over the last 18 months.

Finally - free cash flow is imminent and even renewals (of existing contracts) will deliver a minimum 6% profit which means we are no longer on the cusp of going bust BUT we are on the cusp of doubling in size.

And if you don't believe me - ask Royal London why they took £22m worth of shares, locked down for 5 years, at £3.95 - they could have had the cash but they bought the shares instead ...

Something - imho - that you failed to do @aim whilst we were trading at sub £2 ....how foolish was that?

I think @aim is very wide of the mark on her SP predictions these days because the underlying business has fundamentally changed and this is no longer in the last chance saloon.

I think we will definitely see £4.09 or even £5.09 before we see £3.09 again - in struggling to see any downside here at the moment given the "known knowns".

If we confirm FCF (which surely we will) and have positive forward guidance and a well stacked sales pipeline - I can't see how this possibly could retrace as low as £3.09 ...

In fact - with those things in place - I would like to think we may be looking at £6.09 .....

I'm not sure what UBS are up to with all this buying an selling - but whatever it is - it doesn't impact the underlying success of this business now!

@Capitalizer - brilliant - absolutely brilliant - made me chuckle - it's all going to be good here .... just need to wait a teeny weeny bit longer - I've been waiting 6 years - so a few more weeks is no problem!

Many moons ago - over at THG - they used to say "you wouldn't want to be out of this at the weekend" ...

Ha rarely anything ever happened at the weekend but it became a bit of a saying ...

This has been consolidating around here since second week in December and it's got to be on the cusp of breaking upwards again as results approach.

All we need is a win or an analyst upgrade ...

So I wouldn't want to be out of this at the weekend 😄