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@Xenor
The market is also very impatient .... Far to many people playing CPI for a few fractions of pennies here and there ....
The people who enjoy the 7 bagger (if it ever were to appear) would not be the folks who sell out as soon as the share moves up by 0.5p.
Schroders are holding millions and millions of these and that's good enough for me ... follow the money
@beachfeont
Yes it looks like your sell has put a rocket under this!
I can't see the point, personally, of selling out here at these levels with directors buying at 16.6p etc and Adolfo on the horizon ...
I honestly don't think we need much more patience to reap some reward
Lots of gloom on here today .....
I can't believe we are still talking about the data hack after nearly 7 months, £25m provision and confirmation that Capita had cyber insurance (which will cover any class actions).
Overall market is depressed (like the CPI holders) .... But this will come good (probably a lot quicker than the doomsters expect).
Good to see GOCPI back too ....
@Capitalizer
Yes - that's me - average in the mid 20s and heavily invested (which makes any further averaging down pointless due to the quantities involved to meaningfully shift the needle).
I am hopeful of a positive December update though as some of the business sale monies missed the H1 / June 30th deadline which should show in this update.
I agree the IR response to my email confirms that there will be more exceptional items at full year (March 2024) so it does look like August 2024 before real progress.
Having said all that - a mid 20s average here is to absolutely die for historically - so I'm certainly not going to bail and accept any loss on my investment.
JL suggested these could be trading at as much as 97p within a year or two (when he did that Mail on Sunday interview in July 2022).
I'll forgive JL if we have to wait until August 2024 for the 97p share price 😁 ha - actually - I'd be happy with 97p by December 2025.
Market is totally bust at the moment - most shares are down 30% or 40% from the spring .... This is not a lot different at 50% down since May 2023.
@Xenor
It's just drifting with the market - albeit downwards.
We need news and, in the absence of Adolfo announcing he's joined the party, we need to wait until early December for a trading update that will almost certainly move this upwards .....
@JG68
I think what gets this moving back up is
a) Adolfo starting and hopefully buying a few shares along the way
b) A positive update in December
c) Beating market year end expectations of free cash flow and debt
d) Adolfo laying out his vision for the company and how AI is going to be used to reduce costs and increase profitability.
Until one of the above happens ... I think we are stuck in a 16p - 18p range
@Xenor
It's just not worth the gamble - you might make a few extra shares when the gamble pays off - but even now with CPI down 2.5% on the day - the amount you get for free is not going to be that significant after dealing charges and stamp duty and buy / sell spread.
I know there are lots of people changing their arms ..... But all their profit could be easily wiped out if CPI suddenly moved upwards whilst they were out ...
Not for me .... But congratulations on your winnings!
@Xenor
It's a mistake to try and gamble the movement on this share just to steal a few thousand extra ....
The gamblers scrape a few hundred pounds here and there by constantly trading ..... the investors make tens of thousands of pounds by holding ....
This will be back into the 30s / 40s / 50s and maybe beyond in the course of the next 12 months ..... not need to gamble for pennies if you can hold for pounds ...
My advice - take the loss and buy back what you sold at the bell yesterday.... I don't think you will regret it!
It looks like the "sell at 17.3p" skimming brigade have been out in force again this morning .....
But ... having crossed the magical 17.02p (as defined as a BUY by British Bulls) ... I've got a feeling that the skimmers will be buying back at 18p very soon.
Great news we are still winning contracts too ...
@Trisor
Schroder sold a few in August and bought them back in September - but it was only a few - so I doubt their average has moved down very much at all .... so perhaps 45.9p rather than 46p.
Just my guess but I think one of the main reasons why we haven't received any cheeky offers (of 30p a share for example) has been because of the Schroder holding.
For me - I'd rather CPI prove the turn around is complete and then rerate rather than get taken out by PE (after all the heavy lifting of the turn around has been completed) for a cheeky offer right now.
Perhaps if I had a lower average or if I had joined the party just recently - I would have a different view - but I've been holding these since the start of the pandemic so I really want some juicy reward for my patience!
@Trisor
Well Schroder have 19% of the company at a 46p average so I doubt they would support a takeover at anything less than that ..... and probably quite a bit further north than that.
So 60p plus would be my guess ..... which is not supported by the current FCF ... which is why we haven't had any offers yet ....
You can always here the drum of the impatient on here as soon as the talk turns to takeover target!😁
I would say, though that AimMaster called the 15.9p bottom correctly although it was only for 32 shares on the sell side so I don't think he managed to get his buy in price!
If this was going to be imminently taken over then JL or the Chairman or the CFO wouldn't be buying shares .... so I wouldn't bank on that happening at all
All we need is a change if sentiment based on a solid set of numbers! That's not a lot to ask!
@Jonnyboi
I think the most likely, and possibly biggest, announcement for the remainder of this year is the joining of the new CEO ... and the announcement will be even bigger if he follows through with a share purchase.
Waiting for the December update maybe leaving it too late (depending on the actual date that Adolfo takes over) but we do know it will be before the end of 2023
My thoughts are that any class action re: cyber attack will be covered by their cyber insurance and they have already provisioned £25m now in 2023 accounts as a cost in relation to this incident.
The reason no one is talking about it anymore is that it's old news and has been dealt with.
The share is not at 16p because of the cyber attack as, if that were true, it would have plunged (to16p) when the attack was "new news" in April. Instead the share steadied around the 30s for April, May and some of June.
The low share price is because the MM want proof of free cash flow and more evidence that the turn around is complete ..... and we should all have that evidence over the next 6 plus months (if not sooner)
@Rock200
I couldn't agree more.
If you believe the turnaround is complete (and FCF is on the horizon) it doesn't really matter how low this drops .... because it will recover ... and I believe.
It's just like the greedy gambler who wishes he'd bet £100 on the winning horse rather than the £5 bet. Never content with their winnings and always wanting more. Or - as a shareholder - always wanting a lower average.
From a shareholding perspective - it doesn't matter how low this goes because I'm not selling .... no point regretting that I've still got a mid 20s average .... it's not important unless I sell
So 15p or 14p isn't going to change my life because I'm not selling at a loss .... unless CPI goes bust ..... which is not going to happen!
@Cagney
You are almost right ..... sentiment is bad here at the moment .... but the company is not a dead loss .....
It's got multi billion pound, signed, contracts and once the market see the changes (to profitability) that JL and Adolfo (moving forward) have implemented - this share will re rate.
It's just a waiting game for the MM to see that Capita is a streamlined profitable services business and not a complete basket case (which is how it was before JL took over).
I think most would agree with the above sentiment (except for TerryM who lost a shed load of money in the rights issue and so I can understand why he isn't happy with how JL has performed)
@Xenor
The problem is that the moment you try and trade this at 17.3p - it won't return to the mid 16s (for the trade).- but will continue ever skyward.
I know you have a low average (compared to very many on here) and I would simply say - be patient - this will rise back into the 20s soon enough.
It's not about having the perfect average now .... it's about holding for the perfect profit later .... it's just not worth the 0.8p gamble to try and trade this at these levels ....
@JG68
And there lies the problem - CPI have not YET proved that they have been turned around and those large contracts are profitable ....
BUT when they do prove the above .... this will absolutely fly ...
Just need to be patient!
I was on Jury duty yesterday and got chatting to a current CPI employee (of some years standing) and he was very positive about the company and the transformations that have been implemented under JL.
I know JL isn't often flavour of the month/year (on this forum) but the guy I was chatting to couldn't praise JL enough and he was also mega positive re: Aldopho joining and the ways that his Amazon experience could be utilised to cut costs and improve profitablity.
Ha a fellow juror overheard our conversation and said she was going to buy some Capita shares after listening to our discussions .
I'm going to do an AimMaster .... and make the call .... I think the bottom is in here ... and we will never see the 15s ....
That's probably the kiss of death ... but that's what I think!