Member Info for Trenners

@craig - M&S is a loved brand and, dare I say, a national treasure!

Capita - on the other hand - is a strongly hated and despised CRAPITA business in the eyes of the general public.

I was on the Civil Service Pension Forum last weekend (they ought to rename it WE HATE CRAPITA) and everyone were spitting bile at capita for mishandling their pension claims even though most of the claims were simply not handled by the previous provider.

To say the pension forum hated us would be the understatement of the century. When I pointed out that most of these issues were pre-Capita - I was swiftly removed from the forum and called a "Capita fanboy".

Even those pensioners whose pension had been sorted didn't not have any good words to say about Capita. The unions - that were posting reels on that forum - were encouraging everyone to contact their MPs to complain about Capita and also no win no fee lawyers!

So - whereas M&S is loved - we are despised - and we will get NO THANKS, NOW KUDOS AND NO CREDIT when we fix the debacle from any of the members.

In fact the civil servants are also writing in bulk to their MPs to demand that capita are not used for the salary contract either

I was holding £450k worth of Capita stock as I was cancelled on the forum and to say I'm shell shocked doesn't begin to describe things.

At the end of the day - unless we rebrand - we will always be CRAPITA in the eyes of the public and that's a huge obstacle to overcome

@office - I don't think any of us LTHs need any lectures from you - many of us have been invested in this since before COVID and - at virtually every results day - we have always been promised jam (and a re-rating) tomorrow - but as we all know and can see - tomorrow never comes.

@adam - makes an excellent point that this share has the potential to double or treble in a very short period of time and he's right!

However this share is also "serially unlucky" - turn around looks good in 2023 then we get hacked - results are in line with expectation in August 2025 then DCC gets investigated - things are looking up for 2026 then the pension debacle unwinds etc etc etc

It's like whackamole - every time you whack the mole (eg fixing the closed pension business) the next mole (pension debacle) pops up.

I'm still holding almost £200k worth of stock - even at these depressed levels - and I'm a patient person as Buffer always says the stock market is the patient taking money from the inpatient.

BUT you've got to ask yourself whether this will ever properly turn around or will it forever be brought down by the moles!

@Capitalizer - difficult to argue with your logic although I can't see this returning to £2 - but I guess never say never with Capita!

Your wise words encouraged me to sell half on yesterday's bounce and - like you - I've switched into LGEN.

Unlike you - I won't be buying anymore Capita but will hold steady with my substantial remaining 50%.

LGEN is a great dividend payer - bit like a corporate bond - but has only small capital growth so I need something spicy in my portfolio for the growth and the spice is Capita!

@capitalizer - Holding wise - I'm a bit like you - I am holding a lot of CPI stock at a 14p average in my ISA and I took a 33% hedge on my trading account before results so a lump of profit secured before the drop!

I'm about break even in the trading account now so whatever happens - I can't really get hurt too much - of course if we did fall.much further then a 24% capital loss might be a useful tool before the end of the tax year anyway.

I think given the low averages that we (and Staveley) have - it's not going to wipe us out (even at 14p) but it's frustrating to see so much "profits" disappearing in a puff of smoke again as I had hoped for a degree of stability here.

Anyway - we are where we are - I think your December timescale is a good one which I think I'll steal as if they cant make significant progress this year ......it makes you wonder whether they ever will!

@Craig - that's true - it did hit 11p last April but I think the business is in much better shape now than it was then and also we have three new pretty serious investors (Royal London, UBS and Oasis) as well as our investments from Schroders and Staveley.

I just think it won't go that low again - it makes no sense - but as you say "it's in the hands of the spivs.now"

Would be astonishing to see £1.80 or less again!

@Capitalizer - I appreciate the sentiment to your post and as a fellow lth I know how you feel BUT at 18p old money this is far too low a market capitalisation to simply drift.

Firstly we've got Yellowstone next week and that has helped lift the share price prciously.

Also when we make progress and then subsequently fix the pension debacle that will lift us, any new contract from that £19bn pipeline will help and I expect we will have the usual trading update in June too.

We can expect to get some new analyst ratings in the coming days and I would expect ALL of them to be significantly over £2.75.thay should attract interest from new investors.

If we made any progress sorting the call centre business then that would be positive too.

Today was definitely a setback and a market over reaction and I would expect this to return to £3 or more once everything settles down - after all - it spent virtually all of this morning flat lined at £3 (pretty much until the US opened).

The market says this is worth £2.75 a share but the market is wrong based on the information provided today and it's likely we will drift back UP to a £3 or possibly £3.30 or so in the coming weeks.

£2.75 SP suggests we are going to go bust - but with such a strong sales pipeline (playing in the AI space) and recurring revenue's already banked - this is NOT going bust.

Sit tight - this will NOT drift - lots of opportunities still to make a positive impact on the SP.

How can it drift when

@adam - the unweighted pipeline is only a pipe of revenue opportunity - it says nothing about profit margins.

AH has previously stated that they are targeting 6 - 8% profit margins so that's what you would EXPECT new business to be signed at - but it's only an expectation!

Contract renewals may well be being renewed at less than 6% margin - we just don't know.

Of course - the pension debacle is probably consuming huge quantities of "free resources" at the moment with zero income and even possibly penalties as we miss SLAs - that all had a drag on margin both now and into the future.

Its pretty disappointing to adopt AI as Customer 0 and cut costs by £250m and still see poor margins - and that's what I don't like and I think that's what the market doesn't like too.

Today is an over reaction but no-one likes to try and catch a falling knife so hopefully the SP recovery will start tomorrow because the market capitalization is back to a ridiculously low levels.

£3.65 for me but I would love it to go over £4!

All housebuilders are under pressure (just look at Vistry) and cutting the dividend hasn't helped either!

With interest rates likely to rise because of the war in Iran (or certainly not cut) housebuilders are going to come under more pressure.

I can easily see 80s or below here and possibly sub £4 at Vistry until we get more clarity on Middle East events

@jordi - latest review by Shore Capital is a BUY rating with a target of £5.30 - are you referencing that information - or have you missed the latest Shore Update:

https://share.google/ZTXsr2TeE4DURikWs

@aim - as you know I'm very long - but with good results expected this week - I fully expect it to beat the wider market drop.

If we look back to August 2021 - this rallied about 8% (to 36p old money) the day before results and then rallies to 50p over the following week .....

So assuming results surprise the market then I'd expect us to rally towards £4.50 and beyond ...

If we disappoint then we might see you on platform £2.25 😄 - seriously though - we could see £3 or below again ...

But I'm not expecting disappointment this time around ...

@rojen3 - thanks for your kind words.

I don't know why @Ammu123 turned so aggressive and insulting against me - I was only trying to flag caution.

Hopefully this will bottom out soon and everyone will be happy again ....

@aim - market had some pretty deep red days last week yet Capita rose quite strongly. We held firm Friday whilst the rest of the market fell

Historically - deep red days signalled trouble here - but I think there will be a growing pressure to get into Capita (on Monday) just in time for results.

Even without results - Capita is a bit of a bell weather as our operations have nothing to do with oil or the middle east!

@rojun - the steep fall of the share price clearly shows that this (along with other housebuilders by the way) are being sold down.

TW are down about 20% and still falling and this is about 40% and still falling. No RNS from either company but the SP continues to decline.

I guess things will bottom out when the war stops but I have seen others say they are selling house builders to buy big oil stocks - maybe that's what's happening ...

I wasn't trying to upset anyone (although it looks as though I have) - I was just suggesting caution as this may have further to fall - that is no reflection on the quality of the business - just a reality!

@ammu - obviously much smarter people than you (have dumped the stock) if you are still holding whilst the price craters!

I was only suggesting caution and given this doesn't look to have bottomed out yet - I think those were wise words.

You foolish p***k

@laura - I would tread with extreme caution here - things don't fall off a cliff for no reason - a lot of (much smarter than us) people have dumped this stock to make it crater so quickly

On top of that - house builders in general are having a difficult time at the moment and with no help to buy schemes and a clueless Government - things won't improve for a while.

I've been suggesting sub £4 here and even at that price I can't be certain "it's bottomed" as it could just as easily go to £3!

I'm watching but am cautious

I'll suggest over £4 ... and possibly a lot over £4 ... but probably not £5 .....although £5 by end of March ....

Of course ASSUMING there are no negative surprises in the results ...

This share has performed really well this week in the face of a cratering FTSE and the war in Iran - a fair set of results should make it perform just as well next week irrespective of what Trump does next!

Anything about future share buybacks or dividends will set this alight as I don't think this has paid out anything to it's investors since 2017 AND with all the large Government contracts it should really be a dividend stock for the cautious investor.

Ha it's been a non paying dividend stock for the lover of rollercoasters since about 2020 😁

@aim - great find - you must have really struggled to find such an anti Capita interview by a fund manager.

Executive summary of interview: Interviewee doesn't like outsourcers and says they've made loads of mistakes in the past (which they have) but fails to mention Capita have got a completely new management team and a new AI led BPO strategy.

Interviewer was more balanced - pointing out that there is a new team in place etc and things could be getting better

Interviewee replies sighting the no win no fee nonsense .

Staveley and Oasis are good enough for me ...

This must be close to total capitulation now!

Definitely heading sub £4 in my opinion - if it was going to bounce - it would have bounced by now

My advice to anyone trying to fish the bottom is WAIT