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@shorty - you are right that the March results will look "not pretty" but I am holding onto the belief that the market already knows this and FCF (assuming it's achieved) will give the share the lift it deserves - even with that expected outflow.

Perhaps you are right though in that it might be worth banking some profit either before or (assuming a rally) after the trading update and before the March results

The chart says £4.30 by year end though so I'm sort of holding on for that because - currently - the share price seems pretty solid in the £3.50s and it's only a matter of time before we break upwards towards £3.80 (hopefully before the update) and a push through £4 after the update.

That's my expectation and that's why I am still holding strong but I do acknowledge your fear on how the market will take the negative outflow in March!

@shorty - we aren't even at 24p yet (old money) and we were up in the 43p level immediately before the hack and before Adolfo arrived and before the £250m cost cutting program and before the partnering with Hyperscalers and before the AI strategy ...

So ... 24p is an absolute steal given the shape of the company now and what we know and expect in the following 12 months.

The markets are going to wake up to this on the publication of one set of results that proves what has already been promised and I am CONVINCED Adolfo is a man of his word (as is Pablo and Sameer)

I agree 24p may not be the true value of CPI because I think we should be at least at 30p (£4.50) right now

@shorty - we aren't even at 24p yet (old money) and we were up in the 43p level immediately before the hack and before Adolfo arrived and before the £250m cost cutting program and before the partnering with Hyperscalers and before the AI strategy ...

So ... 24p is an absolute steal given the shape of the company now and what we know and expect in the following 12 months.

The markets are going to wake up to this on the publication of one set of results that proves what has already been promised and I am CONVINCED Adolfo is a man of his word (as is Pablo and Sameer)

I agree 24p may not be the true value of CPI because I think we should be at least at 30p (£4.50) right now

@Macy - the fine for the hack was low in the great scheme of things and cyber insurance is there to insure against a cyber attack. Compared to the multiple hacks at BA and lots of other institutions - the Capita hack was small and the fine reflects this.

The claims look - from what I can see - to be weak (from a legal perspective) and are being pursued by ambulance chasing law firms.

I would expect the cyber insurance legal team to bat the majority (if not all) of these claims away.

Like the Labour Party continue to mention Liz Truss when they are accused of thrashing the economy - so the bears reference the cyber attack when justifying why the SP here will crash.

Cyber attack is old news and only useful as a wrapping for fish and chips now.

Richard Staverly and other big investors never mention the cyber attack when discussing Capita now - so I'm pretty sure we've nothing to worry about on that score.

@shorty - many thanks for your very kind words.

It's been a long journey for me and I never thought I'd still be waiting for this to rerate in 2026 when I first bought into the JL "story" in 2020.

My plan is to wait for this to return to £7.50 a share and then I'm going to start to diversify my entire ISA holding (84k shares) into Income based funds to fund my tax free retirement.

Now it's an extra 2% tax on all passive income - I need this CPI "punt" to work out soon - no one is twitchier than me with a current CPI holding of more than £360k but I would be mortified to sell now and then watch this rerate to £750k - especially when I was about £150k under water at one point!

That is a very large number of eggs in one basket!

@shorty - the thing with any bulletin board (and this one in particular) is that the holders are looking for reasons to will the SP higher and the observers (on the sidelines) are looking for problems to get the SP lower.

As a holder I think most of your concerns (from your previous post) have already been addressed so are therefore not concerns (to me).

The hack is behind us and covered by cyber insurance, the Ofgem outcome is known and will probably be negotiated down in the end (but has minimum impact on us anyway as it's a separate company) and FCF must be delivered if Adolfo and Pablo are to retain credibility.

So for me - I can't see any major concern and the uptrend of the share price tends to support that theory.

We know the train has left @aim stuck on platform £2.25 and it won't be long before platform £4 comes into sight.

I know you are concerned about how the market will respond to outflows in this year's results - but these outflows are known knowns so they SHOULDN'T have any influence on price ....

I think we will look back at this in 2026 and ask why on earth didn't we remortgage the house to buy Capita stock at £3.50!

@aim - if we don't make FCF this month then the market will not be happy and we will be punished .... under JL we would definitely be heading for punishment BUT

I think Adolfo and Pablo are a class act and it would be beyond astonishing if they back tracked on FCF at this late stage ....

Shorting the triple top hasn't yielded much (so far) and if £3.50 holds then it will probably prove a waste of time.

This is absolutely NOT the time to be shorting this stock (even if your name is Shorty 😀) - hold by all means - add if you must (because this is nailed on to be over £4 in January) ... But shorting?

Why would you do that with a company that's riding the AI wave with a fantastic management team AND the underlying SP support this share has been experiencing over the last few weeks (someone surely knows something).

I couldn't bring myself (again) to sell some at £3.58 so I'm still holding 105k shares and I was very close to adding more this afternoon ....

If we drop much lower I will be adding - the turn around is almost complete and we are all going to get very rich RODNEY

@Trisor - It does feel like we are approaching an inflection point and despite hitting triple top - £3.50 held well today and that large after hours buy should help a bit tomorrow maybe!

I've been watching these daily since May 2020 after we had entered lock down for the very first time (they were 35p in old money in those days) and whilst pretty much every other stock has returned to pre COVID levels (except Ocado LOL) ... This has languished.

I think Adolfo has got this sorted now and we are back on the roads paved with GOLD ....

Interesting why they haven't confirmed the date of the trading update yet and I'm really hoping it's because of GOOD news this time around ....

Still performing strongly here but can it push through £3.58?

I think I might sell a few around £3.58 as a hedge but only really because I regret not selling a few previously.

We should not be too worried about the trading update as FCF is almost a certainty and we've managed to get Ofgem and the hack firmly behind us.

I know we will be reporting a cash outflow but surely that's common knowledge and already baked into the SP.

Interesting that the charts show £4.30 by year end (according to a recent VOX YouTube video)

It looks like it's itching to breakout again - wouldn't surprise me to see another Friday afternoon rally like the one that took place back on 10th October when it topped out at £3.60ish

I've been waiting to buy in here but can't bring myself to press the DEAL button with the price just in freefall.

It looks like it's eyeing 15p now although the update tomorrow could either quicken the demise or cause a bounce back to 25p

It's hardly an investment right now though - more a head or tails gamble!

..... In the life and pension business and they've managed to move 9 of them with relative ease ....

The 10th and final one has been a problem for a least a year with Staverly mentioning they needed to sort this out over 12 months ago and mentioning again in his January 2025 video interview.

If they were easy to shift - they would have been shifted by now - so they are definitely problematic and I think Capita (according to Staverly) are faced with a £20m loss FOREVER (as it's an evergreen contract) or £100m to exit.

So we are going to have to take the £100m charge - that's a certainty - it's just a question of WHEN not IF

@Simpiles Ha - I hope I'm wrong too but I'm pretty sure I'm not! There were originally about 10 customers in the life and pensions buainwss

@Simpiles I think you are wrong - Richard Staverly actually quoted the £100m dowry in a recent video when discussing his CPI investment.

He basically said it's costing £20m a year to maintain that one customer and it's going to cost £100m to get rid of them ...

Big numbers and I'm sure the market will react when that's formally announced!

@Capitalizer My fear is how the market will react when we are going to need to pay a £100m dowry to get rid of the loss making closed life and pension business

Every danger we will announce FCF together with an extra £100m debt / dowry and it will go down like a bucket of sick with the market

Surely the only reason they haven't announced the need for such a huge right down earlier is they are trying to time the announcement for minimum market impact.

.... I've been watching for ages and yet I still can't bring myself to buy any at this level as it just looks like it wants to go lower and lower.

20p looking likely now .... but I think I'm going to sit and wait for an uptrend to begin (if it ever begins) ...

Of course the overdue T/U could land at any time and then it rockets or plummets.....

@marcus - at long last sentiment and momentum seems to be turning in favour of CPI and, after 5 long years, I think LTHs are on the cusp of being rewarded for their patience.

Richard Staverly said (I think in a video he did at the start of the year) - there will be a time when EVERYONE will want to be holding some Capita stock and I don't think we are far off that ...

My fear is that this is a serially unlucky company and when things look to be going well - the company manages to shoot itself in the foot.

Getting hacked after beginning to recover in 2023 springs to mind, getting an Ofgem audit after rallying during the summer of 2025 is another...

I'm just hoping and praying that this time ... The recovery is for real!

@Trisor - I think your estimates are optimistic but also plausible - as long as the wider market holds up with so many commentators suggesting the whole market is in bubble territory.

I've always felt we just needed a few bits of good news to ignite the price here - first bit of news was analyst putting a £9 target on the share and that took us to £3.30ish then the Civil Service Pension win saw us shoot to £3.60ish.

I think we've been at £3.60ish twice now (first time was just before the Ofgem investigation into DCC in July) so a break through £3.60 should get us to £4 in shortish order.

Whether it's £4 by 01/12 or £4 by 01/01/26 is music to my ears as both dates are only just around the corner!

I thought I read that IR had confirmed the T/U would be on 16th December - I'm sure someone posted it somewhere!

@Trisor - I've absolutely no doubt this is being positioned for a takeover and pretty much all the steps AH has taken already (consolidate share price, tidy up balance sheet, sell off non strategic businesses, partner with Hyperscalers and move into the AI led BPO space) are with an eye on sale

We need to sort out that remaining customer in the closed life and pension business, we need FCF, we need to prove the AI product les strategy is yielding success THEN we get taken out by either a Hyperscaler (AWS most likely) or Private Equity.

At what price - my guess is not much less than £10 if all those ducks are in line! If course there is a risk we get taken out for a much lower price - much sooner - but AH has about 11 million reasons (old money) to get the best price for Capita that he can.

He certainly negotiated a pretty good deal at SDL the last time him and Staverly partnered up to make a shed load of cash!