Member Info for TrekMadone

PIER as well. What a ride there!

Trek

The sp is a derivative of buys v sells. It’s simple as.

One can argue that that is in turn a derivative of value. Sure there’s a link but the buy/sell algo’s don’t work like that.

Look at many London listed investment trusts. Some are trading 30-50% below their NAV and paying double digit divi’s that have gone up with inflation for the last 5 years or more.

Their sp is a product of selling as institutional investors chase lower risk income from high bond yields. But the companies they sold are still good, paying dividends and are now buying their own stock!

Buys and sells also have a disproportionate impact on the SP. That is because the MM needs volatility to make a market. That bandwidth can be bigger for smaller mcap shares especially when volumes are lower.

So a few sells can knock a large % off the mcap.

As little as 2- 5% of sells can knock 20% or more off a sp! Why, because the MM needs to reduce the SP to a level that will attract a buyer for the stock.

Even if the majority position of investors is hold. There is no money in that! So they shake the price to create a market.

This sounds unfair but actually without a market maker the swings in sp would be much wilder!

So one investing here has bought at a price that they think offers value and the potential of capital gains. So unless the story changes to the downside from an operational, financial or macro standpoint then one should be happy with that. Indeed if one is able and the price drops it should be viewed as a greater opportunity.

Traders operate on the volatility investors look for value and growth.

As the story unfolds it will reach a price inflection point where there is a larger number of buys to sells and that 5% will work the opposite way. So the MM will have to increase the SP ‘disproportionately’ to encourage those in the hold camp to sell to satisfy the buy demand.

But here’s a thing. When stocks rise and that may be without any news catalyst, just buys taking over. That attracts more buys especially from fickle FOMO investors.

Hence I will not be surprised to see even a 3 or 4p rise here in one session as the MM scrambles to attract stock from holds!

And all the time the hold position of the same investor base may be unchanged!

For transparency I tend to trade some and hold some. I sliced some in the mid 20’s and bought them back. At the moment my view on HEX is accumulate so am looking to add more. The time to slice is ahead of us unless you are dealing in high volume trades for a few %.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Kenny,

Just watched the vid and very enlightening!

I didn’t realise that the ‘Joint USA-Ukraine investment fund’ was for future Rare Earth Minerals! Also based on a future profit sharing revenue basis.

One of the most important factors was that the US now (did before though, even under Trump) recognise Ukraine’s sovereignty!

Thing is it doesn’t stipulate borders!

But it does say that Ukraine does not have to pay for past aid.

Well I mean that would be unfair as there wasn’t a condition to pay even by the previous Trump administration, so it would prob be illegal to now demand payment. But the signature now demands that future aid is paid for. Which at least is transparent.

So Trump is securing future rare earths and gonna share profits and in return invest in infrastructure in Ukraine to make it happen.

But there are no associated security guarantees other than don’t shoot American’s!

So my view is , yes this is probably as good as it gets for Ukraine. They got a deal with US and the future terms are pretty similar to what one would expect of say the US investing in any other country where the spoils are shared. So Ukraine aren’t being treated differently in that respect.

But my cynical view is given the overwhelming majority of rare earths are in the Donbas what’s the agenda

If Trump is saying Ukraine gotta give up the Donbas (+the other 3 territories and Crimea) then how is this gonna work without security. It aint!

The proverbial ‘I’ don’t trust Trump. I think he will set up mineral exploitation west of Donbas and then do a deal with Russia for more rare earths east in the disputed territories.

This deal imo is the beginning of another deal which links Trump with his buddy Putin on the condition that he stays his side of the ‘line’ and allow US access to the Donbas rare earths. Let’s face it there’s by comparison sd all on the west side!

So Ukraine loose territory, give away trillions in minerals get no security guarantees other than that afforded by billets for US contractors!

Europe gotta step up… Poland aside, no chance of that then!!

Ukraine got their BATNA (accounting for EU and Russia) but now they gotta grab as many nibbles as they can!

This is a price for peace. It ain’t fair but it gives Ukraine a chance of keeping its identity and a window to seriously step up it defences.

That’s where the EU will hopefully step up as the balls needed are minimal!

Usual caveats

Trek

😢😭😢

Trek

“ Trump says any country that buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business with U.S.

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 1 20252:29 PM EDT

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.”

Trek

Can’t argue with that Evi. It’s been my mantra for ages. Just not as articulate!

Trek

Yep good spot Blue. Thanks

Trek

Wow! Outstanding terms!

Trek

Hi Rosetinted’,

‘ Why is it a risk?’

Because we don’t know what will happen to their holdings on liquidation. Any new owner may not have the same cost sharing obligations which could in effect dilute HREE.

Whilst they think that that is not possible imo the company really should have taken legal counsel to remove the ‘think’ out of it!

I agree that 3p will likely be revisited but imo a higher SP will be dependent on the license approval. Not saying there is an issue with that but it’s not yet issued.

That imo will be a major catalyst.

One also has to be cognisant of the 38.4% potential future dilution from warrants, options and performance shares. But these are milestones that really should be reviewed as ‘rewards’. based on a higher SP.

This imo is also offset by the considerable CAPEX already spent on our acreage and in no way reflected in the £7.2m mcap.

The license will imo change that!

Not deramping it’s in the prospectus.

Plenty of trading opportunities ahead here but now is the time to build a position.

Usual caveats

Trek

With you blue re offshoring and fixing stuff!

It’s amazing how you can make a washing machine last but got to the point where it was cheaper to buy a new one from John Lewis with a 5 year warranty than buy parts! No idea if cheaper again on Amazon as I don’t even look there!

Back to the footy!

Trek

Tiz across the spectrum from energy to recycling.

Virtually shutting down and taxing the UKCS to oblivion and then importing hydrocarbons is as stupid as stupid gets!

Gas is a transistion fuel and is relatively clean compared to pellets/coal.

We need an all round energy mix with renewables and nuclear until such point that technologies and our infrastructure improve.

We don’t have enough BESS to flex our energy and renewables cannot sustain demand curves or weather inconsistencies.

As for recycling, best to make last what you have first! I posted a link before that only 19% (from memory) of recycling actually gets recycled properly!

Battery minerals mined in third world often under appalling conditions get processed Chinese workhouses and shipped around the world then when used go back to China for recycling.

Our offshoring addiction by all previous governments has been ridiculous!

We live on an island, we have food, fish, energy, minerals and a fantastic services sector. We even have manufacturing and most importantly water!…but the greens and nimby’s don’t want us self sufficient. Better off kidding ourselves that it’s ok when someone else does it!

But we don’t want to invest and pay now for quality and would rather our kids paid later for our mismanagement!

Climate change is a serious issue which needs a cohesive long term plan not just kicking the can and green washing the data.

We should all be helping lesser economies that havnt benefited from the Industrial Revolution. But that’s in part where China have stepped in with their belt and road initiative and then shafted countries with white elephant projects and debt burdens.

Or you got western banks turning a blind eye to inappropriate use of our money. HSBC won’t even recognise a war in Ukraine! The bond markets aint just markets they are an elite group of decision making people at the top who lean in their intended direction!

Navigating climate change should be done properly. Collectively and with integrity- no chance of that then eh!

So as a consequence of not doing things the right way we create a platform for the Trumps of this world. Another set of parasitical money men with their own agendas!

You’d think common sense was easy but just look at how fickle we are….A power cut in Spain for a few hours and there’s hell up. Meanwhile in Ukraine power, water and food for some is a luxury and that’s in the midst of a hard winter.

But hey the world leaders everywhere don’t really give a sht. Not loosing face is key! Hubris rules ok! From Xi to Trump to Putin and all it’s about self interests. It’s the human condition and it ain’t changed since ‘the garden’ so it ain’t changing now!

But that don’t mean to say that there shouldn’t be pockets of humanity; love, respect and goodwill. Just like the Tecan’s

So go make someone smile today. I have!

Trek

At least from 45mins. Rest we pretty much know.

3.25p share price is displayed on the table for MDH listing.

Still a micro cap even post listing!

I think someone will buy this when it floats on AIM. Pity Nick can’t be more specific about his intentions though!

Usual caveats

Trek

Doh,

‘ Obviously sold at a loss if you have any shares that is and trying to get a lower price….’ lol!

Don’t think I can possibly loose here. I have a core TXP position going back to 2019! Even had some at 11p!

I remember the best poster here, ‘Danawinner’ whose job meant he couldn’t post anymore before going to Hong Kong. So there, look back through the history here to reveal that fact!

Of course I hope the deal is done. But I have been in this game long enough to know hold and hug seldom pays. Better to bag some along the way and recycle. Timing is everything.

And I don’t care if I loose on some sells. I may just buy them back for a little more or re-invest at a lower price if I think that’s the play.

I have had a few near ten baggers or more in my time like TXP. VRS, DDDD, NCYT, AVCT, SNG, ARB to name a few but look at the SP’s now. ARB when from my 4p to 300p and today it’s missed its accounts!

Many PI’s can’t bring themselves to loose on a trade but I play my own game…

I sold the ones I bought in the low 20’s from my trading pot. Lost about 1.8p.

If I then buy them back at 25p and hold them until H2 and sell at 40p is that bad? Or if I buy them back at 18p and hold to H2 who knows.

But isn’t that what makes a market…. Different views and tactics.

And is the root cause PB’s inconsistency, lack of deliver and delayed news flow of late or is it my post that offered a contrarian view that has really upset you?

Indeed I may be wrong this time but I am very positive on TXP by year end.

But still have a think eh!

Usual caveats

Trek

HREE a newbie listing. Rare earths in clay. Madagascar, TGR are there who some may know. It’s ok.

Anyways there’s been a bit of a post listing shuffle at 1.5p. Float was 3p.

I missed the 1.5p dip as didn’t have cash at the time but bought at 1.8 ish.

My Target is to get back above 3p and May slice some there.

It’s a huge rare Earth deposit and they have offtake agreement with some US company - not a contract though.

There is a 25% holder, Tantalus whose intentionis not clear. I posted the prospectus there which has details in the risk section.

Attraction is $millions have been spent on the expo prior to RTO. It’s now really a near term development project.

Mcap is only £7.24m which does seem cheap and the stock hasn’t had much airtime.

Other than RBW other rare earth stocks are exploration like COBR, ECr etc and its bit of a side show for copper gold.

This is pure rare Earth from clay so shallow and cheap and it’s probably the biggest known clay based deposit outside China who intend to keep it for themselves! HREe has tons of the stuff - used in high tech, defence, renewables etc… like the helium story!

So it’s a play on the narrative as well. Don’t be greedy though. Grab some profit and recycle or just a few eh! As these stock always need more cash in the future. So timing is everything!

Usual caveats

Trek

Another LIO reduction TR1 at RWS, but one has to countenance LIO selling with significant director buying at RWS and also no hint that divi there will be cut.

LIO may just be reducing risk rather than selling out completely.

I added a small amount here today. With recent director buys at around 400p and above I am expecting a run up through 400p ahead of the next xd around 4th July. Remains to be seen if 50p will be paid but if macro settles a run either way is likely.

Usual caveats

Trek

Taken a position here, I think should go back to 3p after the shuffle!

Tantalus (25% holding) is the unknown risk

Prospectus

https://citiusresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/47/2025/02/Citius-Resources-Plc-Approved-Prospectus-26-02-25-2.pdf

Usual caveats

Trek

Good pressures and porosity.

Obviously they didn’t drill flathead yet in case they found gold!

Trek

Edison note - it’s listed here under research

But if missed…

https://www.lse.co.uk/research/SEIT/a-deep-dive-into-key-assets-pah6el6z6gcdmqp.html

Trek

I grabbed more today. There is a heck of a lot to look forward to…..

The portfolio has continued to progress towards its full potential during the period under review, reaching 69% operational status at the end of 2024, up from 58% in December 2023.

As at 31 December 2024, the dividend was 0.96x covered by the strong underlying cash generation from the operating assets. GBP has strengthened in the year against the basket of currencies. On a currency adjusted basis, dividend coverage is 1.24x. As construction assets achieve operational status, the dividend coverage is expected to strengthen in 2025 and 2026. The excess cash flow will provide the flexibility to reinvest in the existing portfolio as well as enable the Investment Manager to address the share price discount to NAV.“

Low leverage and lots of diversification.

Will continue to add this one. Rates coming down and projects coming on line will help. Massive yield 105.5% and likely buy back later in year imo.

NAV is flat over 4 years but sp at biggest disconnect. New assets should add to value to sp even if discount to NAV remains.

Usual caveats

Trek

Well I sliced some today. Just didn’t like the change of tone re the financing which has gone from ‘in the bag’ at the interview to … ‘ Touchstone has made significant progress with its current lender regarding the financing of the Acquisition’

It’s something that can be taken either way but as I have plenty of stock I decided to derisk some in case PB contrary to all his rhetoric is going to deliver a small bookbuild to complete the finance. I can then reinvest either way but have seen this so many times before.

$5m at 15p wouldn't surprise me accompanied by the usual how it’s such a small price to pay in a difficult market to appease his ‘mates’ in London!

Just my groundless opinion based on previous experiences!

Usual caveats

Trek