Member Info for TrekMadone

DEST, a rare chance to by a cashed up late stage biotech. I have posted over there for those that feel they missed out on other tips.

Slower burn that one though. Biggest rewards end of this year but as good as it gets in the sector.

Usual caveats

Trek

Divi data don’t announce all companies. I don’t get SEPL. I think it’s by listing type.

But yes xd 25/5 and new increased divi.

Exchange rate gone against us a tad though.

Usual caveats

Trek

Firstly they have had the 1m it’s included in ‘trade and other receivables’. Imo it should have been mentioned in the highlights ffs!

The BoD bought at recent placings of 35p, 50p, 65p.

M3 should be completed by 2027 which seems a long time given the cohort is only 700 pts and not complex by some trial standards. The primary end point is the rate of CDI at 8 weeks. I don’t know if it’s a blinded or unblinded trial yet. Have to dig later.

They intimate that the first milestone payment will be based on

”success-based development milestones of $19m;”

I ASSUME that is the commencement of phase 3 start of recruitment which should be early 24.

So having completed tech transfer and now embarking on manufacturing in oral capsule form a simple dissolution test is needed by the FDA. Then following product handover they at some point get $19m! That is huge!

It also offers investors low risk sp trigger points. You just need to be in ahead of the RNS’s.

After that the p3 trial is in the hands of Sebela. A cost of $50-60m. I reckon more like $80m given how these things accelerate but DEST don’t have to find a bean!

More to the point they have $19m to coast with.

Assuming sales they get further milestones up to $550m and additional tiered royalties. Happy days but long way off!

Another interim catalyst is the XF funding but that could take a year or more. Again after the strong p2 it should be about scale up for handing over the ‘heavy lifting’ to another Pharma with deep pockets!

Once M3 is underway that will make the next deal much more attractive if not closed out by then.

They give the cash run off to H2 next year assuming no other cash. The ‘ancillary’ projects have grants and R&D could be lower but obviously with new staff appointments pay will be higher.

I think for a biotech they are in an excellent position cash wise.

Cash of 4.9m at year end Dec 22
Cash from placing 7.3m (gross) March 23

It nets out at 7.7m to run the business. Assuming the costs net out the same they can coast to H2 which is what they are guiding.

They have the chance of more grants, XF deal and of course the 19m and plenty of time to achieve additional finance opportunities.

I don’t see a situation where they run out of cash before the 19m lands. That’s one of the reasons Sebela insisted on the placing. Smart move. You can’t have your sponsor running out of cash before a p3 as the FDA look at funding.

I see this as a lower risk investment in terms of the sector. It’s not often one gets a chance to buy into a late stage pharma that already has a farm in deal and cash. Furthermore, there is a high likelihood of price inflexion points ahead to derisk to a free carry.

I noted the stock held up yesterday against the indicative selling! If it was sells then imo someone else here are buyers!

I intend to over invest and take my money out at trading points. I did similar very successfully recently at YU.

Usual caveats

As well as real estate and domestic defaults China is also facing huge defaults on its belt and road initiatives. But that may be deliberate! Who knows!

“ Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt payment for the first time last year. In 2017, the country signed over the rights to a strategic port to China, in a high-profile case that sparked alarm over Beijing’s lending practices.

“The increased indebtedness in many Belt and Road countries is a direct consequence of Beijing’s overshooting in the pre-2020 phase,” said Zhong.

“China not only tried to lend to many infrastructure projects that couldn’t find other lenders otherwise, it also aimed for commercial, or at least not so concessional terms, making the repayment even less likely,” he added….”

There’s more..

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/china-belt-and-road-scrutinized-amid-inflation-slowdown.html

Usual caveats

Trek

So we now have a misogynistic, ******, bully for a CEO that also turns out the be an illegal immigrant! Allegedly!

But he doesn’t take bungs! Mmmmm

Welcome to Nigeria!

Usual caveats

Trek

And housebuilders tro,

Not punching the lights out but whole sector up! my 2150 BWY macro punt with a nice yield is looking promising now!

Could be a told ya so coming up! Lol!

Laters!

Usual caveats

Trek

Only a cursory read but cash runway just to 2H24 seems pessimistic. I don’t see the need for same R&D spend. Also need to check if the 1m cash payment is in there.

Biotechs don’t half burn cash that’s for sure! Hence only buy after a raise and sell before the next one unless you are a lifer!

What we need is more info on first milestone. Part of the idea of the raise was so that DEST didn’t have the risk of running on fumes before they got the dosh from Sebela! Still I would rather the report was more pessimistic than rampy!

Will look in later after golf!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just watched the movie on Netflix. It was ok but I realised how much I didn’t know about what was/is going on on Syria.

Came across this great article which is well worth a skip read…

https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war

And then this site CFR - council on foreign relations. Never heard of it before!

https://www.cfr.org/

There are some great articles covering all the main worldly regions and themes.

Usual caveats

Trek

US inflation for March up 0.1%. 0.2% was expected!

Dow futures up 200pts!

Breaking news!

Back in with the trading pot! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

TXP hit 70p on the bid. Anyone got 10k shares that’s £700 profit in a few days on my 63p buy. And if you did the same the previous two times at 60-70p thats £2700 profit on 3x 10k separate share trades. So the max you invested at any one time was £6300 and came out with £2300 profit or 36.5% and you were only invested for a few weeks!

That beats many hood and hugs!

Of course I think there is a bigger prizes to be had there but having been invested so long and knowing the patterns quite well that’s when you pick up on these trading opportunities which I was happy to share.

Of course I doubt anyone would have taken them up but it shows that trading (charts) isn’t always ‘easier with hindsight’ as many shout from the rooftops. Sometimes you can call them out in advance! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi ID78,

I have quite a bit of experience investing in biotechs. So much so I haven’t bought any for ages! Lol!

This is an old guide from FDA but it sets out a good overview of the process

https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research

There has been a lot of fast tracking ‘warp speed’ under Trump and a rush to get vax’s and treatments through.

For our CDI product they will be recruiting this year. After FDA that’s normally the first serious hurdle for P3 as you have to get suitable candidates probably around 500-1000 at different hospitals to form a cohort. The attraction here is CDI and prevention is pretty common. It’s not complex compared to say rare diseases. Also the safety profile and tolerability is extremely high, it’s very unlikely we would get problems. So it basically dosage (mostly determined at p2) and efficacy. Does it work! It’s pretty straightforward compared to many other trials!

There will be end points and measurements at each stage. Then a read out and full statistical analysis and peer review.

So whilst it’s ‘a bit of string’ I think by the end of 2024 the phase 3 could be near to or complete and then another 3-4 months for readout and review. That’s for the NTCD platform. Remember Sebela are doing all the trial stuff. They have a bigger US hospital presence and financial clout than us. We just gotta hand it over to them boxed up by year end.

If they can scale up they could do quicker but one always has to compete with resources that are also doing other clinical trials.

The XF platform has been through p2 and now we are looking for a partner. I am not even worried about that one. When it happens all well and good. Likewise with the covid and flu stuff.

Just keep our eyes on hitting the milestones. The difficult bit will be waiting and experiencing the volatility but I think we are in as close to ground as possible. May see 28p if so buy. Feel like a parasite really after everyone else's hard work. We just gotta hop on! But then if folk don’t hop on the sp won’t move!

Biotechs are notoriously high risk. This one is about as tame as I have seen with a huge upside as recognised by the brokers. What I tend to do is over buy near what I think is the bottom and then pull money out on any spikes and recycle until I have my cash or at least a chunk of it back and let the rest ride.

Or of course you can buy what you can afford and just forget about it. Lots of ways to trade it but all in with what you have is NOT one of them!

But yes SP wise this could go well beyond 500p if things come together but few make it!

Good luck!

Usual caveats

Trek

You may get 24p of that back after the 15% tax in dividends over the two years as cash. Or you can invest and compound it.

It’s what is so compelling about DEC and many don’t get it!

Re the broker targets. I am building a large position in DEST a fully funded biotech. Just gotta let it do it’s thing now but there are 3 broker targets. Equity Development = 267p, Finncap = 285p, Shore Capital = 290p. Current share price = 31p! They are obviously way out as usual or very premature. 35p then 60p would be reasonable. The other figures are so far into next year they are meaningless! And I hold! Lol!

Then you only have to look at the insurers AV, LGEN, MNG, PHNX etc and you get pie in the sky numbers!

So I tend to just view them and ignore them but Carcos post takes first prize by a million miles! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ "While our vaccines are still very effective at preventing serious illness and death, they are less capable of reducing infections and transmission over time," the HHS spokesperson said.

"New variants and loss of immunity over time could continue to challenge our healthcare systems in the coming years."

President Joe Biden's administration will spend a minimum of $5 billion in collaborations with the private sector, an approach similar to that of the "Operation Warp Speed" project under former President Donald Trump that accelerated the development and distribution of vaccines in 2020.

"Project NextGen will accelerate and streamline the rapid development of the next generation of vaccines and treatments through public-private collaborations," said the administration official.…..”

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-spending-5-billion-speed-up-development-new-covid-vaccines-2023-04-10/

From Manifesto on SNG

We have SPOR-COV, low cost high shelf life, no fridge and adaptable!

“ SPOR-COV™ prophylactic approach targets the innate immune system with potential to develop COVID-19 protection within a few days of treatment

The SPOR-COV™ product consists of a proprietary formulation of Bacillus bacteria that will be administered nasally as a spray. SPOR-COV™ has already been shown by SporeGen to provide complete (100%) protection in preclinical models of influenza.

SPOR-COV™ is different to vaccines in that it utilises the innate immune system with the aim of developing COVID-19 protection within a few days after dosing. As an “easy to use” first line of defence, it has the potential to reduce COVID-19 infection rates and transmission significantly. The final SPOR-COV™ product is planned to be straightforward to produce at both high volumes and at low cost. Additional attributes are that it can be stockpiled almost indefinitely without the need for cold chain refrigeration as it is a very stable product. It could be made available globally as a cost-effective measure in the fight against COVID-19 as well as new COVID strains and other respiratory viral infections.”

It’s preclinical but they got 800k grant in UK and $3m in US and are developing it with SporeGen. It delivered 100% protection in preclinical trials in mice for influenza and they are adopting it for covid. For sure some way off but the point is there is more grant money available and Dest are already in the queue!

Usual caveats

Trek

Pension providers move investors pots away from stocks to bonds for safety. Yea right!

Real people in money pension schemes as opposed to final salary schemes hit by 20-35% that were due to pay out this year!

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/11/pensions-retiring-losses-ftse-aviva-value

Usual caveats

Trek

ECCMID this week in Copenhagen. Not sure if we have a slot but we may get some feedback.

https://www.destinypharma.com/2023/02/27/eccmid-15-18-april-2023/

No search facilities on website

https://www.escmid.org/fileadmin/src/media/ECCMID_2023/Scientific_Programme/PreliminaryProgramme_07.10.2022.pdf

Usual caveats

Trek

You often see the spreads. Sometimes it’s because the morning auction hasn’t set a price so the MM sets the spread out to cover their ****. The liquidity here is excellent so it will close. Some smaller mcap shares esp aim can have a 20% spread all day as liquidity is so poor.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi mick,

Caml pretty much same for a 260p sp as a 230p sp!

PXC outside of ats it doesn’t matter what ops news they release. Need that finance soon! Worth a punt on em pulling it off as us market different to row. It’s moved up today but it always shifts even on low vols as small float.

Txp I see it closed at 71p on tsx so should see 70p today

Dest - I do like, hoping price drops so I can slowly add more! I see them hitting +200p next year. There are lots of opportunities between now and then to top slice to a free carry. Now that they are fully funded just gotta follow the ops news to the first milestone and if they get a xf deal along the way happy days!. I will buy more when I slice yu. Pretty much rest of my plays are tied to income which I don’t want to sell as need divi’s.

TM1 I have noticed they are having a good run and I hope they pull it off. Anyone fancy a dabble there really needs to get in below the CLN prices. I don’t hold or intend but looks promising. Just keep an eye on competition imo so I would buy early and sell when they are generating revenues.

Usual caveats

Trek

AGFX finals out. Throwing off loads of cash debt free!. Been on my watchlist for ages. Can’t do it all so I try to avoid the ones that are about to do very well! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Malcy comments

“ Whilst I wouldnt normally include sustainability reports, per se, these are not normal times and in general these reports are becoming more important and more specifically for DEC, as a market leader in an area that is so important to them.

So as the energy market gets prepared for what will inevitably become the standard across the board it is clear that CEO Rusty Hutson and his team are to ‘play an increasingly critical role in a lower-carbon energy economy’. This I believe will continue to differentiate DEC from the rest in an increasingly important part of investors tick list…”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/04/oil-price-zephyr-dec-beacon-and-finally/

Trek

Broker targets….

“ Three brokers price targets currently stand at: Equity Development = 267p, Finncap = 285p, Shore Capital = 290p. Current share price = 31p.”

From vox markets…

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/neil-clark-of-destiny-pharma-discusses-xf-73-s-significant-phase-2-data-published-in-a-peer-reviewed-journal-potential-upside--06148b6

“It’s very rare that you have an opportunity like this for a pharma with two late stage projects and funded!” Or words to that effect!

I said below +$500m in royalties, meant milestone payments. The royalties are extra and double digit % (not sure what yet).

Usual caveats

Trek