Member Info for TrekMadone

Over 5 days phnom down 1.27% and Av 1.26%

LGEN up 7.05%

I added to PHNX today. Figure it’ll catch up soon so divi will be recovered pdq! Oh and getting +9% forward yield on that buy. More on earlier ones!

Insurers have been fantastic trading opportunities of late! Sell bad news buy back cheaper!

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Trek

Agree but atm someone(s) dumping loads!

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Trek

Look at these numbers…..

· Revenue increased by 77% to USD 728.2m (FY2021: USD 410.5m)

· Organic revenue increased by 60% (FY2021: 39%)

· Net revenue (gross profit) increased by 50% to USD 177.7m (FY2021: USD 118.5m)

· Adjusted EBITDA increased by 86% to USD 86.0m (FY2021: USD 46.3m)

· Operating profit increased by 172% to USD 33.6m (FY2021: USD 12.4m)

· Profit before tax increased dramatically to USD 14.8m (FY2021: USD 1.6m)

· Net debt reduced by 30% to USD 56.6m (31 December 2021: USD 81.4m) notwithstanding c. USD 41.0m M&A net of related equity raises

· Leverage reduced to 0.9x pro forma EBITDA (31 December 2021: 2.2x)

· Adjusted operating cash conversion of 110% (FY2021: 122%)

· Adjusted EPS for the year increased by 70% to 20.01 US cents (FY2021: 11.80 US cents)

· Proposed final dividend of 1.0p, reflecting a greater emphasis on returns to shareholders in the future

And director buys and a CAGR of 78% since the IPO + maiden divi just declared. Also it’s tech which is what sloppy London needs! SP 131 down from 160 in Jan. wtf!

I don’t hold just being nosey! lol!

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Trek

Good trade that bankrupty. Well done!

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Trek

I thought the MD was ‘wishy washy’. He had a big opportunity to explain SEPL’s outstanding community work and their new governance rating. He only touched on it and needed to refer to his list for the key activities.

He could have given loads of examples of community work, scholarships, apprenticeships and put some real numbers around it together with their anti-corruption stance and shown the diversity and demographics of its workforce especially the equal opportunities for women, employee engagement results etc

The two ladies interviewing came over as very professional but our guy could imo have offered more. But then it could be a cultural bias as we like facts and figures!

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Trek

Just looked back in. Must say a bit like the market, I don’t know what to believe!

Good luck guys,

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Trek

Thanks mick,

I sold out of SAVE in 30’s after a run from 6p from memory on a decent pot. Was one of my best plays!

It was starting to pull back and I didn’t want to be locked in again with another suspension so took the money but I missed the highs though!

Chad will become a bigger basket case now. Everyone there just wants their own cut and they couldn’t care less about the people and investment.

Hopefully it will be a warning to Nigeria! But I doubt it.

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Trek

Taking it private… not just yet can bleed PI’s for more cash to fund the mine.

When the ops look promising that’s the time to crash the books hold an EGM use their majority position and give everyone 5p and tell them how lucky they were!

So plenty of trading opportunities in between!

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Trek

Caml hikes divi! Lol! Sloppy sloppy!

https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/central-asia-metals-hikes-dividend-despite-fall-in-revenue-earnings--12834354.html

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Trek

PFC wind farm deal with Hitachi. I was looking at them yesterday and decided to stay away! Lol!

BWY v strong move, 2400 imo before any meaningful pullback. Gonna hold though as much more to come and it pays out it’s final divi in Jan when I only have DUKE that pays then. So nice smoothing effect on the income.

YU. Back to 500p. Looks settling there again. Should be easy run to 600 ahead of TU. I am sticking for 800 as it’s shown it’s hand then out.

VOD. I am bored already! Lol! But still evens!

PHNX xd today and up a tad after taking divi into account. DUKE also xd but down more than the 0.7p atm.

SEPL should get news on Exxon deal soon. Must say I never believed what a croc Nigerian politics and crooks people there are. I thought it was improving but it’s almost as bad as Borris!

TXP news soon. TXP can change everything! Really upbeat note out from FinnCap this week! I posted there.

Been a sht couple of weeks though on the bottom line. Have traded down averages but it only works if they bounce back up! Only just seeing some benefit now as lots of blue but slightly down on the bottom line atm for this year now. That’s a first!

Should’ve stayed in cash earlier when I sliced! Mmmm!

And it’s still flipping raining here. It’s like it’s hardly stopped since September!

Drought soon!

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Trek

I notice the ramping there. It’s going to be a tight call. All comes down to grades!

‘ The Company is in advanced discussions with its gold offtake partner, and is reviewing final documentation, to secure a US$500,000 advance to assist with short-term working capital. The Directors of the Company have also discussed, if the need arises, the provision of additional working capital, in the form of equity or a short-term convertible loan.

The ability of the consolidated entity to continue as a going concern over the long term will remain dependent on the quantity and grade of ore mined and processed being within a reasonable tolerance of the forecast quantity and grade and adherence to the planned product shipment schedule.’

I don’t think the 500k will be enough. They aren’t feeding the mill with anywhere near enough ore. Imo there will be another heavy discounted placing with hype and promises that it will be alright thereafter!

It’s chicken and egg though. They spent the money going no where now the need the grades to get further money but aren’t ready to deliver yet.

Hope they pull it off and if they do 40p should be easily back in the money but it’s a tough call. What they do have in their favour is investors that in saying no have too much to loose!

I may buy back if, after they announce the next placing else staying away.

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Trek

Hi nom,

I know you get the supply lines and I have signed up as well.

This one is really interesting and some top analytics and graphics. The recent article on central banks buying gold is v good.

I have just signed up for the newsletter

Worth checking out

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/

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Trek

Here it is…. Early heads up!

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/mar/29/ultramassive-black-hole-astronomers-durham-university

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Trek

I saw that nom and was surprised; there’s probably heat pumps and heat pumps!

I note who he works for. Sort of organisation that says my car will do 60mpg and the EV equivalent will deliver 300 miles range. Yet there seems to be an inexplicable gap between consumer experience and manufacturing claims.

I hope he’s right though!

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Trek

Just put a note out tp 134p risked nav.

Only includes 5p for Royston assuming 5 mmbbls recoverable.

Royston has estimated 166mmbbls OIP before the sidetrack was drills. Therefore a successful well test could see the valuation increase materially!

They also comment that cash will be tight until Casca comes on but they can defer capex if needed. They only have commitment to two legacy drills in Q4 so plenty of options.

Casca is expected to treble production and cashflow in 23 and AGAIN in 2024!

Think I’ll stick around!

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Trek

There was a good article in master investor which mentioned heat pumps. They work well when it’s warm but not in the cold! Below 4*C from memory (must check if buying one) unit for unit gas actually came out cheaper! Some folk are paying to have them removed!

Early days for the tech I guess. Bit like EV’s don’t do so well in the colder weather!

I have just decided to buy back into the housing sector. Figure rates have peaked or at least priced in. Help to buy blues should be fading!

Been ages crunching numbers so won’t bore the BB but came up with BWY as my pick based on futures, land bank, sp momentum, TA, customer reviews, RNS’s, cash, and outlook. Oh and they are trading below nav and have chucked in a 100m share buy back!

Also as a hedge gonna go for MBH. They sell the shovels so it’s a sector catch all.

There was a good write up on them in master investor recently but they and BREE (aggregates) have been on my watchlist for ages and I used to hold both.

Not got cash for MBH yet but imo no hurry as looks like a big background seller.

Will average in to both with a couple of buys..

You don’t have to buy micro caps to do well in this market, that said mbh is 90m mcap but has solid income track record.

Have done well with trades on insurers + MNG not quite got bottom but all well blue now! Phew!

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Trek

Bought in here having been the last few hours crunching comparisons. Decided on BWY with share buy back, divi commitment and land bank. TW and BKG have held up better SP wise but BWY offers better future prospects imo.

Anyways decided to split between here and MBH, they provide the shovels!

Just have a view that rates have peaked and UK plc may actually start putting real investment into the economy at some point! The housing shortage particularly social & affordable is a known opportunity! Supply side constraints have seemed to ease a bit.

Obviously time to buy was 6 months ago but then folk got a higher risk discount good for them! But still plenty of legs now in this cyclical imo!

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Trek

Results were excellent. I intend to buy especially with air cover from buyback but loads of selling today. I can only assume Hoskings are intent on reaching zero! So no hurry just yet!

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Trek

Not posted here.

Thought it was sorted following PAY wavering of exclusivity rights. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about but has sure put a dampener on today!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PAY/announcement/15895103

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Trek

I added today. I think we saw the bottom at 112 now. I was worried of a sept 2020 100p revisit on TA but imo this is now going back to 140’s underpinned by results.

I also think the divi will go up once they clear more debt.

The directors would have likely bought on the deleveraging glidepath.

Best of all though royalty models are pretty much inflation agnostic as the producers bear the costs.

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Trek