Member Info for TrekMadone

In the past 6 months it has recovered every pullback to revisit its all time intra day trading high.

That’s what makes this such an ‘easy’ stock to trade as long as you can stomach the volatility and don’t need the cash because even if you time it wrong you just have to wait!

Given the trajectory of the data which has consistently beaten the previous guidance and assuming no black swans then I cannot see why it won’t go over 800p again.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi evi,

CAML… Yes it’ll be back to 260 soon. Copper inventories sooooo low! My average is 220 and a juicy 10% yield!

I agree with the DT article and have been avoiding the temptation of buying ‘hot stocks’. There is ‘easier money’ in the FTSE with such high yield protection atm you don’t really need to venture into death spiral funding companies at least unless you really want to!

Did anyone pick up YU I kept saying to grab some at under 500 and again at 550. It’s nailed a trading target of 600p already in two sessions!

Also TXP banging its head on 70p but it’ll pop soon! Should see +70p this week.

Anyways I have decided to have a little more fun and bought into DEST at 30p. A biotech with a huge royalty deal and p3 trial next year. I have posted there so won’t repeat.

I think it may see 28p again so will average in. Next buy will be at 28p or else I will pay more later after the results due Thursday settle in. It’s a rare funded beast with excellent odds to succeed! Sector is out of favour atm and DEST could just be one to catch the eye of institutions following its farm in deal esp if the SP takes off!

It’s been on my watchlist for ages but cash position was an issue. I have now been all afternoon reading up on it and watching interviews. The sp is below the placing price, TA bounce and broker targets +250p, 2 years cash! Etc. I had to slice elsewhere to get some so pretty confident!

Usual caveats

Trek

Me too. Just started building a position here. I have done well out of biotech’s in past but bar a couple of exceptions I have avoided the sector since covid as it is out of favour. Dest has been imo dragged down with the sector malaise.

Look at the 5 year chart. Even allowing for the last two placings around 35% dilution the SP is well down and now they have cash and in all likelihood shouldn’t need to come back to market if royalties land in time and even if not there is a run off to the end of 2024. Previous placing was 50p and the last one was 35p. So buying now gives one a bit of a cushion.

It’s mostly the case that the sp dips below the placing price and then recovers assuming all is in order. Some shares can be shorted to hedge buys or there is a short term overhang. It can give investors an opportunity in this case brought about by Sebela who insisted on DEST having cash now to fulfil their part of the NTCD phase 3 prep work and enough for the XF prep. They obviously didn’t want the cash risk to DEST when they take the trial forward. So financing has been accelerated!

The CDI treatment is extremely promising and now DEST don’t need to worry about the P3 trial costs. It’s all in the hands of a much bigger player. Importantly in terms of clinical trials they don’t need to sift through thousands of potential candidates to get their cohort. CDI risk prevention is pretty ubiquitous. The unmet clinical need will also give this priority.

The nasal treatment atm is imo pretty much a side show. For sure it has huge potential but it’s hardly in price if we are looking at a £28m mcap company looking at a possible +$500m in royalties from Sebala!

It’s of course all dependent on Phase 3 then peer review but with the NTCF results showing 95% effectiveness and the recently released peer review the odds are pretty good!

Whilst there are never any guarantees now is about as good as it gets for buying a biotech with what could be a world first treatment and huge unmet clinical need plus you have the chance of another partnership deal for XF-73 and broker targets of +250p!

Yep I’m in!

Usual caveats

Trek

I read that evi. Very bullish for house builders imo.

Trek

Added again. My 10k buy shows as unknown. I can only assume that there is a background seller as the recent volume has been indicative of mostly buys esp today and the sp is stuck!

Near my target now and intend to tuck these away for regular income.

Usual caveats

Trek

Russian economy

Good article in Guardian well worth a skip read

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/is-the-ukraine-war-boosting-or-damaging-the-russian-economy?utm_term=6435065b210e705c67ffed0ae9e75427&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

More London bashing…. Becomes self fulfilling the more the Mile is talked down. It’s hardly an efficient weighing machine if it’s so far off from NYSE though….

“ UK shares trade at heavy discounts to those in the US, which leaves bosses thinking it would be far better to float in New York.….”

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/london-lose-york-hong-kong-081459947.html

Personally I see this as an opportunity to get some quality yield from London income plays! We have also recently had two good opportunities to get the stocks even cheaper. LDI and the SVB fiasco. Note how both times the London stocks have recovered. Both times I sold mine and bought back cheaper!

But surely this value disconnect can’t stay forever. And if it is indeed true why aren’t NY and Frankfurt pension funds buying London?

Not sure what to believe half the time! But yield helps!

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Trek

Our 10k buyer seems to have kicked some life into this!

Having traded down and now given up as out of ammo for the time I need 468 for evens now from over 550!. I have been lucky putting cash in and pulling it back out for small nibbles when the share was more volatile.

I think we could see it turning now. A +20p day would be nice!

450 looks safe now and back to 500p old support which will likely become resistance could be on.

Divi just increased so it’s a good yield buying down here plus a possible aster bid!

Usual caveats

Trek

Typically I only needed to have waited 1 day before selling VOD and would have had £300 profit instead of £300 loss! Anyways I am still bearish on the stock but thought it was due a bounce on TA to 100p. Looks like it’s back on again now it’s ‘finished’ trading below 90 at least for now!

Anyways I took the money and put it into YU at around 550 which I said should hit 600p. It’s there now but I won’t be selling as 800p has shown its hand and having traded the stock well I am looking at 750 and 800p for a slice. So it’s more than made up for the VOD doh! But it’s not hard currency yet.

My other tip was TXP to hit 70p from 63p for a trade. That’ll be the third time there! My target is way way higher but that’s an investors target as opposed to yet another predictable in and out nibble for those that had a pop. That’ll be 27p gain over 3 trades for however many shares which is pretty good.

Royston well results soon hoping for a return to 100p before a pullback followed by Cascadura commissioning which should see it settle well into +100p. It’ll all come down to flow rates and then the London market will apply another huge discount!

IQAI my old fav. Shoot or bust with a £5m mcap. Expecting news there soon. Could go anywhere so absolutely not for more than pocket money! Finals due this month and it’s a year since the phase 1 trial so expecting some news. Hopefully they can extend grant funding so really don’t touch unless you are able to deal with volatility.

ZPHR - issue with well. I have been one of one to say avoid. The fractured well tech is in its infancy. These plays are non standard and prone to high risks. Sure may come off but there are smarter plays around.

If you wanna chase a high risk drill look at MATD raised $6.6m at 2.5p when only need 4m. It has a high impact drill, spud due in June, ‘velociraptor’. I have traded it in the past but don’t leave it all in for the results it’s a relatives low COS. That’s what sets TXP apart!

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Trek

Wow what a level of detail and real actions! So pleased that these assets are in DEC’s hands!

Lots of financial transparency as well. Directors pay also linked to ESG.

I think they have completely raised the benchmark for majors in this space!

The efforts will definitely not be wasted. The transparency and engagement at all levels from community to employees and regulators will make the company more investable and offer a level of protection from disparagement.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s not easy Photo and for all our research and knowledge it can often come down to luck!

I managed to get where Wooster is looking at 51. Having taken loads of risk with a small pot which I multiplied many many fold! The pot is reduced somewhat now having done the right things. I have split what’s left between boring income stocks and bar a couple of dabbles nearly all my risk money is in TXP.

I still have to keep my eye on stuff as I have to build a cash pot back up now having helped the kids with mortgages etc

The surest risk reward stock that I see to achieve that is TXP. There are of course others like YU which I only found recently at around 450p and could go to £15-20 without all the usual risks.

What is interesting is bar TXP I don’t hold any of my multi baggers anymore and they are all much much lower than the price I sold.

ARB I held from 4.4p from memory and sold all the way up to 150p. VRS was my first ten bagger and is now on its knees. DDDD I traded with a big pot bagging several times and is now suspended! TGA (similar scenario to YU) is off it’s highs but I don’t follow it now. I bought fro 170 and sold at around 900p. Job done! I see YU following its pattern.

AVCT is looking promising now. That paid for a car from 30p and some but I no longer hold. But the other covid stocks, GDR, YGEN, NCYT, SNG and many others I traded are all much lower. AVCT I would buy back and perhaps NCYT because of its cash pot but only as a trade from 54p as I see 100p there soon.

Buying is easy its knowing when to sell that’s difficult and I should have sold TXP at 170p! The only reason I didn’t was because I didn’t need that cash at the time and it was anywhere near its potential. That’s why I still hold.

The plan is to take some cash out of TXP, top up the income plays and then I can leave it alone. But you find there’s always something else to do!

But hey… it can be done!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Photo,

Look for something that has finance and growth. Too many stocks ramped out their and then diluted. If they don’t quite have the money then what is the plan..

YU in a high growth energy field. 50bn TAM and they are a disruptor with loads of cash and just announced a maiden divi. They have been over 800p recently and pulled back to under 600p. Only 17m shares so a wild vix! I added some more today at 772. Will sell some and keep some after next TU.

PXC operationally huge potential asset but need finance within 1 year. Been over a year arranging non dilutive bond finance. USA 100% based poly metallic mine. IF they finalise finance it will be in next 3 months and see huge rerate. So a punt.

HE1… everyone knows about it. Helium in TZ. It’s drill or die but you could have a few to sell once they get their act together. Just placed.

YOU a safe little bet at around 900p. They are the survey kings and will do well in run up to elections. Boring but very predictable from here should move from 900p to 1300p easily over the year. That will beat most stocks! Dull!

IQAI, if you wanna break all the rules around common sense in hope of a ten bagger or even a 50 bagger! This is the one! It’s grant funded and been so for nearly 2 years now. Still getting funding by skin of its teeth. Landed orphan drug status from FDA which is a huge deal apart from the SP reaction. It’s currently on a funded phase 1 trial in USA for brain tumour treatment and no one else has it! Hence orphan crud designation!. So under the radar and 5m mcap! Their are other biotechs out there for 50m mcap and have much much less. But I would only put in literally what you can loose. I have enough to make a difference! Yikes!

If you think the housing market is going to turn. BWY and MBH are my pick! I have run loads of numbers on the Sse toe. But dull!

There’s loads out there I read lots of RNS’s and they are my pick but wtfdik!

And yes TXP is my pick of the picks hence blls deep! Lol!

Then SEPL and DEC for income and growth as I have most in boring income stocks now.

Good luck!

Usual caveats

Trek

NCYT,

Anyone else figure if 54 holds the bottom was 52 and now due a bounce to +60p?

Defo on as I am not trading anything else until next week!

Usual caveats

Trek

From Guardian

“ House prices across the UK rose for the third month in a row in March, while the annual rate slowed to the lowest in 3 1/2 years. This suggests that the market is stable, although a further slowdown throughout this year looks likely as mortgage costs have risen, said Halifax, which is part of Lloyds Banking Group.

A typical UK property now costs £287,880 (compared with £285,660 in February), according to the monthly house price index from Halifax. Prices rose 0.8% in March from the month before after February’s 1.2% gain, and were up 1.6% on a year earlier, the slowest annual pace since October 2019.

House prices rose in all UK nations and regions last month, though the annual rate of growth continued to slow in most areas. Mortgage costs have risen as the Bank of England has raised interest rates 11 times to 4.25% to fight double-digit inflation (at 10.4% in February).”

Recommend facility…
Have reported it. That’s the one blue. I can get ticks but can’t give any! Must have spent them! I’ll ask Tro for some of his!

Lol!

Hey what’s the chances this national alarm causes markets to crash!

Not sure my kids will notice another alert though!

Trek

Can’t tick you up again this morning mick as I still don’t have the vote facility. Is it just me?

Trek

It’s already bad in Spain….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65129735

But where I live in Devon it feels like it hasn’t stopped raining since September! Lots of cancelled golf days and not even worth taking the road bike out. Just muddy mountain bike trails!

And yet apparently we haven’t had enough water!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-65156799

Well what a load of toss! I can tell you that Burrator Reservoir is absolutely bursting it’s banks. There’s been waterfalls from the hills where I have never seen them before. Yet come summer it will be nearly drained.

The problem isn’t that there’s not enough rain we should have enough flipping water down here to export! It’s the whole water miss management process. The expanding conurbation without adding infrastructure, the leaks and the lack of development.

There’s plenty of room to build, expand or integrate waterways. When you fly over devon and cornwall all you can see is fields! They find enough places to build houses. Now they are talking about having a desalination plant. All that unnecessary energy! It seems bonkers!

I get the Southeast which really is dry but here is usually wet. Just not enough buckets and the ones they have have holes in em! Oh and they blame much of the sewage spills on storm overflows. Must be the wrong type of rain!

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On a wet Wednesday!

Trek

Tick!

Trek

Tick up facility gone guys so you can’t spend them today!

Better news at SGZ with bridge finance and interest rate deferrals. Really gotta hit grades now in the long stope, anyone confident on ops will be buying back in today.

If they release good grades though you can pay more to get in and there will still be plenty of upside imo and if not you will miss the single figures!

Will be low volumes across now as traders stay in cash for weekend.

At least no hint of Finland reaction!

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Trek

Assault on trench… very methodical!

https://youtu.be/SJ1PhrZTCQo

Trek

Congrats evi, I’ve had a couple of good returns, best was 90’s to 110 from memory and one recently which was smaller but nothing g like the version windfall!

I am looking to add more at YU on the pullback. But on reflection will probably keep a bit of cash until after the hols unless YU goes to 500 again as it shifts wildly on low volumes due to so few shares.

Agree all with sell rec though…. There’s been two fundi’s buying the turnaround story. Zilch has happened! So new money unlikely to follow now.

Also I renewed my BB tonight. I am with plusnet. I did a market search thingy and VOD came out cheapest at £26pm same megs and a £95 gift card. So I went back to plusnet on the chat to give them a chance to price match and they came back with £23 pm for 2 years! After that it’s £54 but I will be out of contract then and free to shop around. So I stuck with plusnet. Easier and not had any egg timers with them!

I don’t use the landline only mobile as only pay £4.95 pm for unlimited calls and texts and more data than I can use with TalkMobile.

So who says it’s all gone up!!

The telco’s will all be suffering from the energy hangover, wage bills, inflation and competition even if the regs have softened.

There wasn’t the bounce I expected so out. Now watch it do 5p! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek