Member Info for TrekMadone

Tro,

Once 220 went 200 was always going to be support. I have added more but if 200 goes it’s possibly another dip to 150 at worse.

All said on the fundi’s and historical TA it will bounce hence I have been buying on the way down and intend to hold for income.

Getting 10% yield well covered, no debt etc plus a macro play.

Any hope of a deal in Ukraine and it’ll go over 300 in a blink.

Some say it’s a value trap but if you don’t need the money and are confident that the vix is part of the journey it’s doesn’t matter.

Bargain for new money. I’d buy now and keep some back foe 190 just in case. If 220 is re-established I’d then add.

Usual caveats

Trek

Still no cheap broad spectrum off the shelf prophylactic available.

Wouldn’t be surprised if Pfizer look at XF now

Usual caveats

Trek

Good call nom,

Buying is easy(ier) it’s often knowing when to sell that’s key.

Good luck

Trek

“ the Board will continue to act in the best interest of shareholders and apply rigour and appropriate discretion to ensure executive remuneration outcomes are aligned with shareholder expectations.”

Obviuosly related to Sp performance esp after 105. I get that the LTIP needs to be realigned as covid obviously changed some measures. However, in defence I think their presentations in terms of clarity simplicity and showing how they stand against objectives has been top notch. The IR team always reply to emails. That can’t be said for many companies.

We are getting quarterly statements and updated presentations often with media.

Their ESG story and transparency is excellent supported by real actions. You can see the dial turning clearly in key areas exceeding all legal mandatories. It’s also a key scorecard component.

I think the engagement isn’t so much with the existing shareholders as with the analysts and potential new shareholders.

Those that hold get it but we need new money to move the SP. To that end I think the US listing will be accelerated with some insti date nights to sell the compelling TSR story.

Usual caveats

Trek

Not surprised I’d little bounce bit of a tantrum yesterday. If we get 25bps and then the fed sticks we could see a small rally.

Big banks could do well as money polarises and they earn off the rate margins. Downside is business/SME stress but surely peaked or peaking now winter numbers are in.

Housebuilders had a good day yesterday. Vty, Bwy and Psn always a good barometer. HTB will be back in some form. It’s all Gen z & millennial electioneering!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ How do you think DEC's share price will move once Divi is declared?”

I think the market is agnostic about the divi atm. Not just here but across London divi stocks. E.g LGEN. Keeps increasing divi sp down. Many others same. It’s like if it’s not yet yielding 9% and covered by earnings then it’s expensive!

PHNX have inflation/earnings linked divi. They hit 600p today now down on banking woes that have v little relation to them!

SEPL just increased divi by 20% and have more than 2 x cash to cover, may be more now, let alone earnings! Which are increasing even at 60 bucks their divi is well covered.

Dec is cheap I just keep adding now and they have already announced next divi.

I just hope in a year or so this proves to have been good timing.

Usual caveats

Trek

Very good of them to follow up todays RNS with Company Driven Media

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-316

Trek

Al Pacino! Classic!

I forgot how good the script was!

https://youtu.be/TqyYT8gkwr4

Trek

“ The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation said in a release that JPMorgan Chase will assume all deposits and “substantially all assets” of the bank.”

On cnbc…. First republic in GPM hands.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/01/first-republic-bank-failure.html

Probably for $1…. Like I said there will be winners in this situation. Some bigger banks will get huge boosts to their loan books and not all the debt is bad. It’s mostly liquidity issues

Mind you I just got my statement from lending crowd. Thankfully I got out a few years ago before the accounts were frozen but I had a couple hundred quid that I couldn’t sell. That money was spread around 50 companies. The defaults have steadily increased over the year and now only 1 company is paying. The rest have all defaulted!

Shame because lending crowd have been great. Very transparent and supportive and I made a few quid, just! even after writing off the last loans!

Usual caveats

Trek

Times-Housing help to buy could be back on!

Sector could rise strongly with any hint!

On FT 80% of the 8% s&p500 rise is down to just 7 tech companies!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-65445035

Usual caveats

Tre

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-65445035

If you like income check out some quarterly payers.

SEPL, DUKE and DEC all good price atm with upside and PAY well oversold!

Usual caveats

Trek

Ops in 6 years it would be 206 for 100 and 198 for 96!

But I think we all get the pint of compounding!

Usual caveats

Trek

Yeah! Blue at last and 9% yield paid quarterly!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ CNBC reported Wednesday that First Republic’s advisors were preparing to pitch larger banks on a plan that would let the regional lender sell bonds and other assets at an above-market rate and then raise equity. The sales would result in a loss for the banks that buy the bonds but could be cheaper long-term than letting the bank fail and get seized by regulators.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/first-republics-stock-poised-to-rise-for-second-day-as-regional-bank-searches-for-rescue-deal.html

Basically investors and depositors are loosing confidence in smaller banks because they have failed to manage their liquidity risks in higher interest rate environments.

Whether that results in contagion and a run on banks I doubt. But it may mean folk withdraw deposits from smaller banks and put it into bigger ones. They may also shun smaller banks for lending.

Either way it’s not good and it makes one wonder after all the stress tests and tier 1 liability thresholds what the regulators have been looking at!

These regulators don’t do very well from water to banking. Why is there only one monopolies and mergers commission!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ In the first half of 2022, the U.S. overtook Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, according to the Energy Information Administration, citing data from not-for-profit organization Cedigaz.’

US will emerge as key supplier but note comments at bottom re renewables. Peak gas around 2030? Mmm. That’s factoring in Europes intentions but I doubt it allows for significant EM growth especially India.

In 6 years if you compounded a 13% divi here for 100 shares and the SP and divi stayed flat then in 6 years time you would have 198 shares!

That obviously increases if the divi increases which it has done annually but reduces if the SP goes up significantly as you buy less shares or the opposite if the sp declines. However, it’s a pretty compelling metric if you think DEC will be a going concern in 6 years time!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ “To give you a sense of what we’re up against, if each one of the FBI’s cyber agents and intel analysts focused exclusively on the China threat, Chinese hackers would still outnumber FBI Cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1,” Wray said in prepared remarks for a budget hearing before a House Appropriations subcommittee on Thursday.‘

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/chinese-hackers-outnumber-fbi-cyber-staff-50-to-1-director-wray-says.html

Well I wonder what the situation in the UK is. Well I don’t wonder I just have a few calor gas bottles stashed, a cupboard full of tins and some other usable essentials that we cycle through.

It only takes a few hacks to bring the country to its knees!

Usual caveats

Trek

Absolutely it’s a fluke. Hence it helps if you aggregate your trades.

I added today so as not to inflate my average sp here. But didn’t sell any before the divi. No big shakes! It’ll crawl back up and I am happy to -any low now for the next divi.

But at MNG I sold at 206, missed the divi and bought back at 177. Now it’s +200 again. So really I only gained a little cash I as still have the same number of shares but with no divi!

I didn’t sell PHNX and it’s now heading back for +600!

Other times it’s gone in my favour esp for resource stocks which have dropped and not recovered after the divi but insurers tend to return to their trading bandwidth.

Sometimes I do 50/50 but each stock and timing is different. It can even be different for the same stock on each XD!

Look at the spec divi on NG a few years ago. It hardly moved after xd and that caught a lot out who had sold hoping to buy back cheaper! Many ended up licked out. In that even it’s better to go 50/50 or whatever. So many PI’s are all or nothing.

Usual caveats

Trek

2 x 570k buys. Defo buys as well over mid for the day. payed for £1m each + lots of other large after hours trades today.

I am a buyer as well. Not on that scale though! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Me to,just grabbed 6000. I do think it will be back to +105 once the Sp shenanigans are over!

Usual caveats

Trek

Mmmm typical I was hoping to flip a few more into here!

I wonder if the 90p dip closed out some positions.

But I notice today a couple other high yielders are up DUKE, PHNX also housebuilders which are mostly high yield and banks but ftse is only up 23 pts.

I have always wondered just how long London can stay cheap for. Some of the yields with cash and divi cover on offer are insane compared to US and Europe. Surely the gap will close at some point.

DEC’s divi is solid and has a track record. Something has to change at some point!

Usual caveats

Trek